While OpenTable had a very successful IPO yesterday, the IPO market might not open up for other tech startups for at least another year, says prolific Silicon Valley investor Ron Conway. He made the assessment in a video interview with Vator.tv’s Bambi Francisco on mobile startups, republished below.
Questioned on when he sees the IPO market open up again, Conway responds that he thinks we are at least one year away. He’s more bullish on the M&A market picking up again, expressing the hope that this is only six months away.
In the rest of the interview, Conway mostly talks up some of the 130 startups he’s invested in to date, although interestingly he reveals that he’s not on Facebook or Twitter because he doesn’t have the time for any of these services.
Since he’s an early-stage investor in both those companies, that would make Conway the anti-Peter Lynch.
He also claims two of his portfolio companies, Admob and Digg, could one day go public.
But that’s at least a year away.
Hey, what happened to TechCrunch? I’m away for a few days and all of the sudden the blog is not shit anymore (for the most part.)
Sorry, we’ll return to being crappy soon!
the TC video is not working heres a link.
http://vator.tv...mobile-startups
Real news is finally happening again!
Conway:
Please stop talking. Please start exercising.
Sincerely:
Everyone in the United States of America!
I would not have guessed Open Table to be the first IPO after the draught but impressed on how well their IPO went. Congratulations.
Any predictions on the next 10 Internet startups to do an IPO?
Facebook?
LinkedIn?
Others?
None of those listed will do an IPO. Who is going to invest in Facebook, honestly?
If they invest in OpenTable, they’ll invest in Facebook.
Jason – They’ve surpassed 300 million users and have yet to optimize their monetization. I’m bullish on them although they’ll likely face increased eyeball/stickiness competition from LinkedIn, Twitter, MySpace (w the new CEO), etc.
Moreover, we’ll likely see a reduced amount of eyeball time per individual once the economy recovers as productivity requirements will likely be further tightened for workers (e.g., employees won’t be surfing Facebook, etc. as much while at work in the future). I think we saw this tightening after the recovery in 2000 and we’ll likely see it again in the next recovery do to global competition, weak dollar, etc. Brace yourself.
I don’t care how many users they have. I buy stocks to make money. I can’t see them making me ANY money.
Conway, Maholo, Scoble…
Boring.
Find new sources, underpaid loser indentured servants, and perhaps people will take you more seriously.
Makes me dream of the days of Mark Hendrickson–Not Thin’s former poolboy/managing editor.
You are not listening, Jason. The man is telling you his fairy tale seasoned with words like ‘millions of users’ (would be interesting to know how many of them are active), ‘eyeballs’… see?
Don’t bother him with your silly questions about YOUR money, he’s busy.
The art of BS is on an unprecedented level in SV these days.
Alex – I agree there are some fairy tales out there. Hits vs registered users vs active users vs time spent on site, etc. I might be wrong, but I thought Facebook’s stats were pretty strong on all fronts. With the current downturn (as in 2000), ad rates and other financial numbers are down, but when they come back having stats like Facebook’s current numbers would make it a strong IPO candidate.
John, I apologize for the sarcasm, you seem to sincerely believe what you said.
Then, here’s our prophecy (George Soros and mine):
1. All the people who are witnessing this present crisis ARE LOST AS POTENTIAL INVESTORS (the crisis is just STARTING to unfold, believe me).
2. All the past ‘models’ (including the VC) are broken and WILL NOT, repeat, WILL NOT recover.
Conway tends to think, that his (VC) model will have a final bounce back (called the ‘dead cat bounce’ in a market professional’s jargon) and he will be able to jump of the departing train with a chunk of money. Right. Let him think so.
Upturn Inc. which does online real estate IPO on the pink sheets.
http://www.goog.../finance?q=UPTR
Why do tech companies absolutely have to be listed on the NASDAQ. They can just IPO on PINK and OTC.
Just as big money VC investments in tech have widdled down, why can’t IPOs become smaller and leaner as well, by getting listed on over the counter markets???
I think that may happen more and more.
NASDAQ’s requirements are just too high in this bad tech market. Either NASDAQ lowers the bar, or there won’t be more IPOs from tech companies.
Look at what happened to Livewire Inc.
ir.livewiremobile.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=381019
What’s the point of being listed on NASDAQ if you have to delist a month later. It’s pointless.
We all have to lower the bar.
Think of all the money Livewire mobile must have wasted paying the investment bankers and doing the whole IPO process, only to delist a couple months after it was listed.
Why would tech companies put themselves through that?
This was either a very funny, brilliant post or, you are serious, and thus possibly the dumbest thing anyone has ever posted.
No the dumbest thing ever posted is below. Look down. Anywhere dumbass locator.com guy posts — that’s the dumbest thing anyone has ever posted. At least until he posts the next dumbest thing.
gent does not use Facebook or Twitter because he doesn’t have the time for any of these services “i invest and add value.” how is a person to know what they are investing in if they dont use the service. money alone does not add value. must think just his name mentioned in a startup adds value. maybe he should change his last name. remember Bernie Made-off.
hes too busy to use the services he invests in? suggests that if we want to be better businessmen we should stop loitering at fadbk and twibber. that makes sense.
ipone apps? prices are dropping. billion apps collecting dust. ipone apps are falling off a cliff. the hulahoop syndrome is dying.
Mobile startups are in trouble. currently approaching the Apex of mobile innovation. we dont need another app for anything. 30,000 apps = a flooded market.
Digg = a recommendation engine? i never bonded with the service. maybe it because im too busy and dont care about a site that ranks articles of pop culture. something i could find on any major search engine.
StartupLocator.com – takes a will to make a way
Dickhead, as usual, you know nothing about which you speak. As someone who has taken an investment from Ron, and who rewarded him with a healthy return, I can tell you that he did add significant value in the earliest days of our company’s growth.
Of course, with your great company, you wouldn’t need or want money from one of the most well-connected angel investors in the industry.
epicfailurelocator.com — look at everything you’ve ever done.
people that are successful dont follow me posting drive-by childish rhetoric. appears you have some unresolved personal issues that you should focus on.
buy a book:
http://www.amaz...s/dp/081299163X
LoserLocator.com – one jerk at a time
don’t need the book, dipshit. actually did take money from him and returned it to him as well– and then some. just because I’m successful doesn’t mean I can’t hate pathetic shameless self-promoters like your dumb ass.
blowmelocator.com — you’re an idiot
That interview almost put me to sleep!
Anyone else think this is ridiculous. The guy says, he invests in companies and adds value, but doesn’t use any of the products.
How can you add value without using any of the products?
We probably know more about facebook than he does.
I’d laugh, but I was too busy falling asleep during the interview.
You go to your cronies and make deals, that’s how you/they ‘add value’.
Ron Conway does in fact invest in one thing he knows and understands very well – people
Everytime this big bag of hot gas gets quoted, a large ice sheth in the Antarchtic falls into the sea.
Go Green and Save the planet, Conway.
Close that feedbag and read a book—preferably one not written by Robert Scoble.
While Ron Conway is clearly a successful angel investor, I’m not sure what makes him an authority on the IPO market. It would be more interesting to hear what the bankers that sell the public offerings or the institutional investors that actually buy them are saying.
Come back from what? The tech IPO market has been dead since long before this recession. SOX reform is more of a factor here than whether we’re in a recession or not. Until then the only two paths for a company are to make money and be successful independently (not a bad choice) or be acquired.
Absolutely!
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Robin – perfect example of what TechCrunch should stop doing. Write about people with a big name, big mouth, on any occasion. Yes it generates ad impressions, yes it props your sources little ego’s, but it alienates readers who actually know what’s really going on in technology and Silicon Valley.
Specifically – Ron Conway is the last person I would ask this type of question. I have worked with Ron in the past. Phenomenal networker. He knows everybody. But, when it comes to technology and actual business models, the guy knows nothing, zero, nada.
If you don’t believe me, play the first 30-seconds of the video. Bambi asks about “What’s Facebook mobile strategy”. Ron replies with the name of the guy running Facebook Mobile, and concludes “Facebook has been the leader in mobile for the last 4 years”. Bambi politely carries on, seeing his host is clueless “OK. Next question”.
Typical Ron Conway.
Now I have a two suggestions:
1) Less Jason Calacanis, Loic LeMeur, Ron Conway, etc, i.e. pseudo celebrities who have nothing to say
2) More diverse and interesting startup coverage like Mike Arrington used to do when he started this blog
Surprise for Ron Conway: web start-ups don’t need VC’s anymore.
Now VC’s need to invest in hardware businesses.