We Know Hollywood Is This Dumb. Et Tu, Netflix?
by MG Siegler on November 10, 2009

karlBack in August, we wrote about the Hollywood movie studios conspiring to keep new release DVDs away from services like Netflix and Redbox for as many as 30 days after their release. The idea behind this from Hollywood’s perspective is simple: If people can’t rent movies right away, they’ll buy more. Sorry, did I say the idea was “simple”? I meant, “idiotic”.

At the time, it was reported that Blockbuster, the former video giant that is aging anything but gracefully, was also backing this 30-day window idea (where it might see a 30-day rental exclusive on some titles). With the company bleeding money, it shouldn’t be surprising that they’re aligning themselves with the studios. But more recently, there has been some very disheartening news: Netflix seems to be willing to back this idea too. Yes, the poster child for much of what is right about the consumer movie business these days may be on the verge of making a deal with the devil.

Let’s be clear about what this means: If you’re a Netflix subscriber, you will no longer be able to rent new movies until 30 days after they’ve been released on DVD.

The show business trade publication Video Business reported last week that Netflix would be willing to accept this 30-day model for huge discounts on the movies after that period — perhaps as much as 50%. As a business decision, this would seem to make sense since 70% of Netflix’s main business is catalog (older) release rentals. As a long-term strategy, this is just about the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard.

Here’s what this will do: It may drive sales of DVDs a bit short term. But soon, online movie piracy will pick up to new heights. If the movie studios have nightmares about piracy now, their reality will be truly terrifying with this plan in place.

There are two major factors that stop movie piracy from being as bad as music piracy was a few years ago: Broadband speeds and convenience. Let’s speak to the latter one first: With services like Netflix, Redbox, iTunes, and the like all offering fairly easy ways to get movies you want, when you want them, it’s less of a headache for most people to use them rather than digging around online to get them for free.

But with this new 30-day window in place, the masses would be driven online to search for more illegal content — and more importantly, it would begin to fuel a piracy ecosystem for Hollywood content. There would be more people downloading, but also more people sharing. That’s the key.

Screen shot 2009-11-10 at 2.45.34 AMBroadband remains an issue in many parts of the country, but increasingly, it’s not as big of one as the studios might believe. With devices like the Xbox 360, Apple TV, PS3, and services like Hulu and YouTube, people are getting used to downloading or streaming content over their connections. If you take away the convenience of something like Netflix, these same people will eventually put two and two together that these connections can also be used to get new content online for free, illegally.

Hollywood is making a fatal error with this strategy. In their greed-clouded view, they seem to really believe that most people are renting movies rather than buying them because they’re given an option. Kill the option, kill the problem, right?

The truth is that most people are renting movies rather than buying them because the majority of movies released are crap that no one wants to buy. There’s a huge difference between paying $3 (or less, with Netflix) to rent a movie that may be entertaining to watch once (or might not be), than having to spend $20 to buy something you don’t really want and will have forever.

Hollywood assumes that because they’ve sort of made this type of buy-first, rent-later environment work on services like iTunes and Xbox Live (where it doesn’t really work and is just hampering both services) that it will translate to Netflix as well. But if you give a mouse a cookie, then try to take away that cookie, he’s going to bite your hand off.

What’s really befuddling is that Netflix lacks the vision to see through this BS. They don’t seem to realize that longterm it’s going to screw them too. While new movies may not be as core to their business as they are to Redbox (which is suing many of the studios to stop something like this), new movies are the sexy lures that bring in new business. If I can’t get at those sexy lures for 30 days, they’re not nearly as sexy.

The Internet, meanwhile, offers plenty of those sexy lures. Sure, there’s some risk in grabbing them, but it’s really pretty minimal. Did I mention they’re free? Because Hollywood and now Netflix are practically screaming it.

[images: Miramax and New Line Cinemas]

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  • Haven’t read the post yet cause I’m about to go to sleep but LOL. Great choice of photos. Slingblade, dumb & dumber.

    • It would be a really dumb idea if the fact was that most Hollywood movie releases are really disappointing anyway, new or not. 30 days isn’t too long to wait for a bad movie. Heck make it a 100 days, I can wait.

      • There is a huge difference between Netflix supporting this and Blockbuster. I didn’t see anyone else say this but it’s obvious why Blockbuster would support this, they sell movies. So you walk into BB and say hey I want to rent the movie that just came out and they can then say, “we can’t rent it to you but can sell it to you for $20.” All the unsold ones they have left after 30 days they open and rent out. I don’t have netflix anymore but I don’t remember being able to buy a non-used copy from them. So they would be stuck for 30 days where blockbuster can make bank during those 30 days.

  • The whole system is growing old. Music and Video are just not keeping up with the times.
    They are trying to keep an antiquated system running in modern day technology.
    They will lose in the long run. It all just takes time.
    Sit back and watch…..!

  • I agree with you nearly all the way… except… there is a possible flip side to this.

    To play devil’s advocate… if Netflix does not support it, and Blockbuster does, isn’t it entirely possible that Blockbuster will get huge discounts/higher preference to be able to rent these movies than netflix?

    Then not only do you have people who have had to wait 30 days to get it, you then have people who have waited 30 days, and may have to wait another 10,15,30, or more days before its available on Netflix.

    • I’m actually pretty sure with the deal Netflix is thinking about Blockbuster will already have preferential treatment for in-store rentals (at least at some level). The idea is that Netflix doesn’t care as much about new releases because of the 70% number I state. Basically, they’d be taking themselves out of the new release game which is shocking, and dumbfounding.

      • I have to disagree – it’s not shocking. I know that, anecdotally, I generally do not clamor to watch a DVD the day/weekend it is released and just about all my friends are the same way.

        I would love to see the numbers on first-weekend rentals and sales now vs 10 or even 5 years ago. I would not be surprised to see them be a MUCH less percentage of the total than they were before, making such a move less drastic than it appears on the surface. If a lot more people are ordering back-catalog stuff than before, extending the window won’t have as much as an impact as might be believed.

        One thing I wonder is if Netflix could be negotiating Watch Instantly rights as well – which would make the whole deal a lot more attractive than just the discount (which isn’t insignificant) than it might otherwise appear. I would be much more copacetic about the 30-day window if I know I could see it online instantly a lot sooner than 6 to 12 months (if at all).

        • You’re probably dead on.

          Netflix has said for years their future is with online streaming.

          I am willing to bet that watch instantly rights are way more important to them than rights on physical DVDs….

          (and hence I do not share the option of this article)

          • ummm…have you seen the movies that netflix streams? They are all B and C movies you see int he walmart dollar bin. It’s ok when you’re traveling and bored, but they are really bottom of the barrel videos. No one seems to be talking about that. It’s not comcast caps that will hurt the streaming business – its the fact the the movies they allow for streaming are absolute crap.

          • jeff speaketh the truth. The studios control big new release titles. Thats the bread and butter. The stuff you all want to see. Netflix streams most of the crap no one really cares about or really old movies.

          • Jeff – couldn’t disagree more. I wouldn’t still have netflix if it weren’t for instant streaming.

            TV: Showtime heavy hitters, seasons worth of primetime tv like Lost, Heroes, 30 Rock, etc…
            New and Old Classics: Slingblade, Empire of the Sun, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, and many more
            Movies you wouldn’t see otherwise: Indie movies, Documentaries (they have a lot of these, and they are mostly good)

            The B/C movie stereotype you refer to may have been true previously. My guess is you haven’t looked in awhile and may want to see how much their catalog has improved

            I rent less than 10 movies a month (probably closer to 5), but as a guy without cable, I watch probably 15 hours a week through instant streaming. Talk about value!

      • Netflix is crazy like a fox. Why would the consumer care if they have to wait 30 days to rent movies?

        The Netflix and Redbox availability date will be the only date that matters to most consumers once Blockbuster finally goes bankrupt.

        Most Netflix rentals are from their deep catalog and not new releases in any case. A deal like this would have massive benefits to Netflix shareholder due to the presumed discount that Netflix will negotiate with the studios. That savings will drive the growth of Netflix’s streaming content as well as its global expansion.

      • Ditto critter42. Once I got to the meat of your post my reaction was a big fat “meh.” I can wait – I have a hundred good movies in my queue waiting for me to send back that one I’ve had for a month while I gorge myself on four seasons of “Lost” through Netflix’s streaming service. Which, as critter42 also points out, really needs more content, faster.

      • The question is whether the 30% of new release biz drives the other 70% for Netflix. If that’s the case, the rapid about-face will be fun to watch.

      • I personally don’t care if I watch a new release today or 30 days from now. With my Netflix account, I have a queue of 30-50 movies, most of which are pretty good. If a particular movie gets bumped out 30 days, there are plent of good ones in my queue to take its place. In addition, I usually peruse the current list of movies out in theaters and add the ones I’m interested in to my Netflix queue. It takes months for them to get released on DVD, so I’m usually surprised when they arrive at my house. I don’t care about an extra 30 days. I suspect that quite a few other people do the same thing with their Netflix accounts.

  • I’m not sure if Netflix lacks the vision here, they may just lack the muscle.

    It’s a shame the fight went to the rental agencies… if the studios took on the theaters, then we’d see some real sparks flying. The theater => rental gap is just so painful.

    • That would be an interesting fight. It’s pathetic to watch Hollywood chase after these DVD sales which are not going to come back. Distribution is changing and the more they screw the consumers to fight it, the more they’ll get f-ed in the end.

      • I think the missing component in your analysis is a premium netflix stream option. Want a physical DVD to play? sure, we’ll mail it in 30 days. want to stream it now? pay 5 bucks more per month, and we’ll stream it (i’d also venture that netflix will renegotiate the per-stream costs as part of doing the deal).

        Remember, Netflix wants to get OUT of the DVD mail delivery business, this merely provides an enhancement to their digital delivery offerings.

      • @MG
        Between this comment and this:
        “The truth is that most people are renting movies rather than buying them because the majority of movies released are crap that no one wants to buy.”

        You are littering the intertubes with too much truth about shady practices from these morons. I’m going to have to give you a citation. A citation of honor that is.

  • I think you are just making an assumption here. Netflix I’m sure has a very clear idea of how this decision will impact them now and in the future.. If they support it, it’s because it’s the best route for profit somehow.

    Business’s created to generate profit, decisions are made based on what will generate the most profit

    • Tyson ever heard of Coca-Cola? Yeah like one of the biggest companies in the world. Remember when they decided to go away from original coke for awhile…and it was a total disaster. Even the biggest and smartest companies ( I think we can all agree Coke is a huge and smart company) can make terrible decisions, without a clear idea of how it will impact the future. Also getting the most profit right now, verses steady growth and longevity (which will sustain profitability) are totally different paths which have very different outcomes. (ex. Apple)

      • You mean the one where people were getting kind of bored of Coke as a brand and drifting to Pepsi, but after the New Coke “fiasco”, people were clamoring for and excited about Coke bring back “Classic Coke”, and Coke ended up with even more dominant marketshare and good feelings toward their brand? Yeah, that worked out terribly for Coca-Cola didn’t it?

    • Sorry, Tyson, but as an economist and business analyst, that might be the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard. Market economies are designed to generate profits. Businesses are simply cogs in the machine that are usually short-lived and often make very poor decisions. The economy, in the long run, rewards good business decisions in a sea of bad ones, precisely as Mr. Siegler said. If Netflix goes along with this, they will be making a very short-sighted, stupid decision.

  • Maybe a counter view is Netflix totally get this, embrace it with the studios knowing full well DVD sales and paid streaming will go down and piracy up. Add to that 70% of their revenue is older content at most likely greater margins and the business impact is not as dire as it seems.

    Studios then come back to Netflix for paid distribution and Netflix are a more powerful player about to dictate terms, i.e. better margins.

    • Maybe, but it doesn’t help anyone in that business to drive piracy up. That’s something that’s hard to get back in the box, as the music industry found out.

      And if Netflix takes itself out of the new release game there will be problems for them.

      • Does this apply to all players like itunes, xbox et al?

        The movie industry is taking the lid off and to put it back in the box will cost them and Netflix and others will simply get better terms.

        Anyway, perhaps Rupert will come and save the day and with each video rental you get a day of news for free ;)

      • Give me 100% access to the Netflix library via Watch Now and I couldn’t care less about whether Blockbuster has a new release or not for 30-days before Netflix.

        I time-shift everything anyway, so I don’t consider movies perishable after they’ve been in the theater for a weekend.

        Now if Blockbuster were negotiating exclusive “day-and-date” DVD/BRD releases, then Netflix should be nervous, but not as nervous as the stupidplex theaters.

      • Actually, think about this. Piracy going up doesn’t hurt Netflix that much. Most of their sales are back catalog, which are hard, sometimes impossible to find. This is one area where Netflix is a much better option than piracy.

  • downloading movies on the web is still quite a painful experience for a majority of folks on the web. so the devil might get away with this stuff for a while, whether the rest of us like it or not.

    • i somewhat agree, but with more seeders, it will get easier. it will be gradual, but with things like this, it will happen.

      • And aside from seeders, if there’s enough “market” I can bet you somebody will find a way to make it easier to get the pirated content for Average Joe. Think about how much easier is Bit torrent today compared to five years ago. I’m thinking in Xtorrent and Vuze and all of those slick and easy to use apps with the search engine included

    • Here is one alternative scenario: Neflix already charges an extra buck for each blu-ray. They don’t call it a premium service per se but it is. Now imagine in the future their newest subscription level “Premium 3 movies out at a time” in which all you have to do is pay five (or ten) more dollars per month and you can get new release movies without waiting a month.

  • wow. just wow. They’re more than shooting themselves in the foot, they’re shooting themselves in the head! but forget NetFlix, what is hollywood thinking?

    Thanks for reporting this MG

  • because as online streaming sites prove…people will just wait for a dvd to come out and buy it…oh wait.. hang on…

  • Gotta love a classic “i know best” b/c “the truth is” abc which implies the optimal strategy of xyz. with absolutely no data.

  • I worked at Sony for 4 years on and I’m telling you they are really this clueless. The studio types simply don’t get it and are in constant panic trying to figure out a way to curtail choice which as pointed out by you drives people to piracy. Netflix is already looking pretty thin to me for streaming purposes and this is just going to make it worse. Siegler is right. They are doing purely because they think their business depends on catalog but they don’t get that people show up in the first place looking for new content and not for the Goonies. So, uTorrent here I come.

  • This does sound extremely stupid and presumptuous.

    Don’t we usually BUY DVDs that we WANT to own? I have no idea what %age of people fall into this segment, but I’m thinking it’s a significant number.

    When a new release is out, it’s extremely presumptuous to think that choking out rental options would tempt people into buying it.

    It’s even sillier to discount the possibility that if you take out the rental option from the rent vs. buy vs. steal set of options for a new release, people are left with buy vs. steal.
    A 33% probability of theft turns into a 50% probability of theft.

    Hollywood’s getting dumber, as has been aptly represented pictorially.
    As for Netflix, they will need to promote a different AI challenge for next year: transforming long term business stupidity into short term business intelligence.

    In the meanwhile, LonelyGirl15 is probably having the laugh of her life.

    • I used to buy DVD’s that I want to own but I got tired of the “this is the ultimate edition” version only to see the “ultimate, ultimate edition” announced two years later. One day I realized that I never watched any of the extras and garbage on the discs. Now I just netflix most of my stuffz…or if I see one of he “ultimate editions” for sale used I’ll buy it.

    • why would i buy something i want to own forever when i can get it free online and still own it for a long time?

  • The studios don’t think people can and probably will wait for an extra 30 days to rent these movies?

    It’s not like people are sticking around at Blockbuster in the old days waiting for someone to drive up and drop off a rented movie they desperately want.

    Nowadays there’s too many alternative forms of entertainment so waiting for another 30 days is no big deal.

  • I don’t think it would be a bad move for netflix if they could use this as a bargaining chip to also get the rights to stream the movies after that 30 day window. If they did that I would be completely fine with it. Take the savings on buying the DVD’s, purchase the rights to streams it and let the few people who are still willing to buy the DVD go buy it. You also have to remember that the DVD releases are coming much faster then ever before after the movie debuts in theaters.

  • The whole idea of artificially controlling the release of movies is looking increasingly outdated.

    Why don’t the studios just release movies on all formats (theatre, DVD, online etc), available to rent or buy, all on on the same day? It would mean the could pool all their marketing $ into one release date rather than 2 or 3 (theatre release, DVD release, rental release).

    Sometimes i’ll see a trailer for a movie that is out at the theatre that I like the look of, but I know I won’t have time to go out and see it, but I would have rented it from iTunes and watched it at home.

    Another example is today, Bruno was released to buy on iTunes UK. It isn’t available for me to rent until 9th December. Now i’m not going to spend £10.99 on a film I may not even like, but I would have spent £4 to rent it in HD on my AppleTV and watched it tonight.

    So rather than getting £4 from me today from renting the movie, the studios get nothing, as i’ll probably forget about it altogether in a months time.

  • The thing is that user who don’t pay will always use
    pirate movies. Users who are conscious and pay will
    just wait.

  • The studios are already staggering release dates.

    It comes out first on torrent.
    Then it goes to theater.
    Then it goes to retail/rental/hotel pay per view.

    No biggie if they needle their way to seperating the last stages. It’s just the new reality.

    This simply means the drive toward totally digital distribution is accelerated (whehter that’s TCPIP or via some other faster protocol). They’re architecting the demise of the middle man. And the middle man has no choice but to squawk and slow the process down a bit or be complicit and ride the bus to their own deadpool party.

  • is the second part of the title supposed to be in french ? in that case, that’s more something like “Et toi, Netflix ?” (and you, Netflix ?) or “l’es-tu, Netflix ?” (are you, Netflix ?)

    • Are you really that dumb? It’s the kinda, somehwat, well-known quote from Caesar “Et tu, Brute?” It’s Latin, and translates to “and you?”, but the meaning is more like “you too?” as Brutus, whom Caesar had trusted as a friend, had betrayed Caesar.

      • Just for the record :) The original quote goes “Et tu mi fili Brute!?” Meaning “You too, my son Brutus!?” Since he was Ceasars adopted son.

      • ok well… I didn’t know that quote, and I must admit I’m pretty bad in extinct languages ^^
        Also, “well known” is kind of arbitrary, depending on countries, cultures, personal interests…

  • In my mind, a movie isn’t out on DVD until it’s on Netflix or in a Redbox. This would have no effect on my movie-renting or -buying habits.

  • Fantastic article – spot on and truly amazing that the studios have not learned from their past lessons.

  • Do people actually await DVD releases? If I really want to see a movie I go to the theater, otherwise I pretty much forget about it until I see it on Netflix. If that’s the day of DVD release or 30 days later doesn’t really matter to me. As far as I’m concerned the release date is the day I see it on Netflix.

  • This may be dumb on the part of the studios. It may also be bad for the movie industry. But for Netflix, it certainly is the right call in the short term (better discounts, don’t get blindsided by Blockbuster). For Netflix in the longer, more strategic term, that depends on the mechanics of their business. You have one view of that; they have another. Both have their merits, but it’s their decision. Me, I am buying Netflix shares.

  • I think the decline of sales have more to do with people realizing how dumb it is to actually buy a movie. They’re looking at the shelf of movies gathering dust and asking why did they ever buy them in the first place. Unless you have a small child that will watch the same Disney movie ad nauseam (for the parent), the value is not there.

    I can understand Netflix agreeing to this if it lowers their acquisition cost of a movie, but the studios are fooling themselves if they think it will actually increase dvd sales.

  • I guess my dream of one day watching movies legitimately online as they are released in cinemas just got more ridiculous :-)

    But seriously, whilst the above may same ludicrous, I often wonder why. If I pay just as much to watch a movie online as I would in the cinema – or perhaps even more, why is it such a bad idea to allow me do so – from the perspective of the studios I mean, and piracy fears aside. Cinema houses would lose business of course but should the studios care?

    Come to think of it, the same could apply to DVD releases. I’d be happy to pay more for less-than-one-month old releases.

  • This will only cause more people to go to scene releases or scene src to get the pirated versions! If they try to throttle ISP in the future pirating will go wirelessly using VPN. There are better solutions, like the iTunes model. Take a small loss, but in the long run it should all even out. That’s their best solution! Sooner or later they will learn.

  • I agree 100%. However, even without the 30 day window, piracy is only getting bigger every year. It’s getting easier and easier and faster and faster. The longer the studios don’t try to create a new business model the further behind they fall. Nexflix and Redbox better watch out as well. Yes, its only a dollar, but once a person downloads their first movie through piracy they don’t go back. Why would they. It’s faster since you don’t have to get in a car and the quality is almost as good. Once there is a Napster that truly makes it idiot proof – there will be no going back.

  • A big issue that this article misses is QUALITY. Currently, I don’t download movies from bit torrent primarily because of quality. Before a movie releases on DVD, the copies on Bit Torrent are often of dubious quality — video taped in a theater, strange watermarks, foreign subtitles, etc. After a movie releases on DVD, there are always good quality copies, but why bother since I can just get it from Netflix and not be a thief.

    If they sell DVD’s 30 days before renting them, there will be quality copies up on bit torrent and I will have a real reason to download them. This is a really bad idea, although I wonder if the studios will settle for a higher rev share from Netflix on new releases and a smaller rev share on catalog content. That would make sense.

  • I don’t think this will change my behavior at all, I will buy the movies that I saw in the theater that I really liked, and I will wait for the ones that I haven’t seen on Netflix. I’m not going to buy a movie I haven’t seen, do people do that an appreciable amount?

    One flaw in your analysis is that you say that movies can be downloaded easily, but Netflix has very few streamable new releases, most are older releases. The newer releases that can be streamed are almost always indy movies.

    As far as bad moves go, this isn’t as bad as it could be, and I think Netflix is just going to let the movie industry stumble and dig themselves deeper, while Netflix gets a huge discount all the while.

  • I am a Netflix customer. Because of this article, I called them to tell them I thought this was a bad idea.

    The CSR to whom I spoke said that Netflix already has in place plans to purchase the new titles elsewhere – at increased cost – so that they have them during the first 30 days.

  • I think there is one more really important issue with this which the article scratches a bit it feels a bit more important to me.

    Namely, most movies really are crap. How many times did it occur to you that you saw a trailer wnt to the theater and it turned out the only 90 seconds of the movie worth watching were actually compiled into the trailer? Releasing movies online or on DVD earlier, like while they still run in theaters would mean very few would watch those movies in cinemas. I know lot of people who only download torrents to check whether the movie is worth watching at all!

    Remember how Hollywood wanted to filter tweets about new releases? Don’t expect them to allow rentals or online releases happen before theater and DVD sales had their run! It would put too much of a burden on them to make good movies.

  • Netflix is crazy like a fox. Why would the consumer care if they have to wait 30 days to rent movies?

    The Netflix and Redbox availability date will be the only date that matters to most consumers once Blockbuster finally goes bankrupt.

    Most Netflix rentals are from their deep catalog and not new releases in any case. A deal like this would have massive benefits to Netflix shareholder due to the presumed discount that Netflix will negotiate with the studios. That savings will drive the growth of Netflix’s streaming content as well as its global expansion.

  • Here’s the part I don’t understand about your theory. When every movie that comes out is available as an illegal download just weeks after it leaves the theater, why would it drive up piracy if they waited 4 months to put it in rental, instead of the 3 months they already wait? It isn’t like lack of access to the retail DVD is what is holding back piracy. I can’t think of a single new release in years that hasn’t been available as a torrent, months before the DVD was released.

    I just don’t see the person who is fine holding out on downloading a pirated copy for three months, but who just can’t stand to wait four months.

    • *Exactly*. We’re really talking about different types of consumers here for a given movie: 1) People who buy it on disc 2) Renters 3) Those that get it off bittorrent and had no plans on buying it or renting it.

      The three groups are almost mutually exclusive. I really don’t see people changing their behavior because of a time delay.

  • that’s the point i didn’t get either when i was reading this. mg read lee lloyd’s comment.

    my math teacher downloads 9 movies on our unlimited school internet connection every day. he doesn’t have to pay for anything. i don’t think he’s getting all new releases, but i bet he’s downloaded some versions of new movies that aren’t out on dvd.

    i haven’t bought a dvd in years. i either rent or go online or go to the local china town and i can get anything i want for a reasonable amount of $$. it’s sad that all these companies keep trying to grab on while things change around them. it’s alright if they drive the consumer to another alternative. it just means lost business for them. i mean you can’t blame yourself for them not understanding the shifts that are happening.

  • Let’s say Netflix does capitulate and limit rentals to 30 days after release: what stops them from selling those DVDs during that period? If Netflix sold DVDs to subscribers at deep discounts, they could crush the competition. Opens an extra revenue stream. Widens their market.

  • Just to help out with the French typo.
    It should be “Es tu”

  • Your concern for Hollywood and the the threat of piracy by calling them stupid is funny.

  • If you are a Netflix customer, let them know what you think of this really stupid plan.

    http://ir.netfl...m/contactus.cfm

  • I fail to see how this would change enough people’s behavior to have a big impact. If I *really* wanted to see a movie for the first time, I’d go see it in the theater. If I loved it on the big screen, there’s a good chance I’ll buy it on disc when it came out.

    But if Netflix is my primary method for watching movies and I have dozens or hundreds of titles waiting in my queue, there’s a fairly good chance that I’m not concerned about seeing a new release immediately when it’s available. If it’s in my queue, I know that I’ll eventually get it. And in the mean time, I’m watching something else I’m interested in.

    Nick Carr’s recent post on Netflix (Netflix’s tail massage) shows how the company is already manipulating demand for new releases by waiting awhile before suggesting them to users. You have to go out of your way to find new titles and add them to your queue.

  • I would pay a premium to have access to certain new movies on Netflix ( I already do on iTunes). And I don’t think I’m the only one

  • “There’s a huge difference between paying $3 (or less, with Netflix) to rent a movie that may be entertaining to watch once (or might not be), than having to spend $20 to buy something you don’t really want and will have forever.”

    You didnt take drm into account. ;)
    It’s entirely possible you’ll spend $20 to buy something you dont really want and wont have forever ^^

  • Agree with critter42, Netflix could position themselves better with more options for “watch instantly.”

    Until Netflix funds movie production themselves, they are at the mercy of Hollywood movie studios.

  • Sigh. If they think waiting 30 days to watch will make consumers more eager to buy, they are quite insane.

  • The 30 day hold of a new release will not really do much. It is a sad time for the movie industry but movies are all pirated these days. Someone from China will get a copy and make even more money on The U.S.

  • Who cares? With Netflix you just don’t care about a release date unless you really LOVE a movie A LOT. In that case you’ll either just buy it or download it another way. Overall, my queue has been completely loaded for the past eight years in using the service.

  • Interesting perspective for sure. I didn’t think about piracy when I first heard about this.

    I can’t comprehend buying a DVD. I have absolutely no desire to have copies of movies. I’m extremely happy with the Netflix model. Rent, watch once, send it back. If I want to watch it again in a year, i’ll just re-rent. No need to buy.

  • The thing is that if you don’t think the movie is not good… you can wait 30 days. If it was good you would have seen it in theaters. That’s what I do… and if I missed it… I wait. It’s my fault. I’m the one who missed in theaters. If I really want to see I can wait. I mean… I’m not gonna die if I didn’t saw a movie… Are you?
    And if you are renting… you are already not pirating.

  • “the majority of movies released are crap that no one wants to buy”

    That’s the truest thing said here.
    Hollywood has become a sad parody of itself, a cess pool of talentless overpaid celebs churning out mediocre, overhyped crap that gets marketed by aforementioned celebs to kids that (through no fault of their own) don’t know any better, before rehashing it all for an even worse sequel (here’s looking at you “Night of the Museum 2″).

    Hollywood deserves all it gets for the tripe they chuck out for us these days.!

    -Jamie

  • all the people who want to steal movies already are because they do not want to spend money. those that are not stealing movies will continue not to steal movies. ask your friends who don’t steal. don’t do a survey because (like this article), people will say they will in order to put an end to this action but won’t follow through (remember all of those thousands of people who threatened to get palm pres if apple didn’t open up? how many do you think did? i would put the number at about 12 plus or minus one and almost every one of those people are regretting it.

    i don’t steal and i don’t give a rat’s ass if i have to wait 30 more days. it’s just a movie. it isn’t food rations.

  • forgot to add. i think this is a BRILLIANT move by Netflix. It’s going to happen with or without their support. They could have fought it and got nothing out of the deal or negotiate, like they have, and gotten something for it. I believe we’ll see their long-term profits increase and not decrease.

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