Here we are again. The hype leading up to a new mobile device is reaching a fever pitch. Motorola’s Droid sounds, looks, and by some accounts, is impressive. As such, everyone’s favorite superlative is being thrown out there once again: “iPhone killer.” Of course, we’ve heard this before — maybe a dozen times. The BlackBerry Storm was the iPhone killer, the Palm Pre was the iPhone killer, the G2, etc. Not only does the iPhone still survive, it thrives. Why?
The answer is easy, but requires some explanation. Fundamentally, the problem with most iPhone killers is that they’re not actually trying to kill the iPhone. They, as devices, may think they are, but most of them are playing a different game because of the OSes they run, and the companies behind them. One way to think about it is to compare smartphones and more precisely, their OSes, to religion (which we’ve done before). This is especially apt since the nickname for the iPhone is the “Jesus Phone.”
In a religious sense, the iPhone is a monotheistic religion. Basically, its OS believes in one device. Yes, I know there is the iPod touch, as well as variations of the iPhone (original, 3G, 3GS), but these are essentially all the same device with essentially the same hardware, just boosted specs. Meanwhile, Android, Windows Mobile, BlackBerry, Symbian, etc. are all polytheists. But “pagans,” while perhaps not exactly right, is a cooler term, so let’s go with that. All of these other mobile OSes are pagans. They answer to many devices, their “gods.”
Now, I’m not saying that the pagan approach is a bad one, I’m simply saying that trying to kill a monotheist device with a pagan OS is going to be very hard. The problem is that none of these pagan OSes have that one, single device that they can use to help spread their doctrine to the masses. They may put more faith in one device at any given time (which Android is already doing with Droid), but ultimately, their allegiance lies with the many other devices under their OS umbrella as well. The pagan church (in the Android case, Google), would be unwise to play favorites because it would undermine the ultimate goal: To be on as many devices as possible.
And I think Google realizes that. While they apparently have had quite a large hand in helping with Droid, it’s Motorola and Verizon that are hyping it big time. But I think Google knows that the Droid isn’t an iPhone killer. Instead, it’s likely the best device they have so far to kill their real competitors: Symbian and especially Windows Mobile. Repeat after me: Android is trying to kill Windows Mobile, not the iPhone.
Another popular way to think about this is the PC (Windows) versus Mac history. Essentially, early on in the history of personal computing, the Mac was king. But then Microsoft came along with an OS that could run on devices from multiple manufacturers, quantity ruled the day, and the rest is history. Android, Windows Mobile, etc are often associated with taking this approach in the mobile battleground.
But things are different now. One could argue that there was a lot of other things going on inside Apple in the 1980s that led to the rise of Microsoft (and, of course, the ouster of Steve Jobs). Since then, Apple, for lack of a better phrase, has gotten its shit together (and brought Jobs back). With the iPhone — meaning the combination of the hardware, the software, and maybe most importantly, the App Store — Apple has created an ecosystem that is fueling itself.
Microsoft, meanwhile, has been trying the same “quantity” approach in the mobile space with Windows Mobile for years now. For a while, it was working fairly well, but that was mostly due to a lack of competition in what was still a very small market. Now, they’re bleeding market share in the space, and the future looks grim. Again, not so much because of the iPhone (which is hurting it short term), but because of Windows Mobile’s true competitor: Android.
Not only is Android open source, but it’s free. Windows Mobile, on the other hand, is still ridiculously charging manufacturers upwards of $25 to use their sub-par OS. Their strategy seems two pronged at this point: 1) Try to leverage the Windows PC brand as much as possible and convince users that Windows Mobile tied to Windows itself create the best environment for mobile. 2) Get out Windows Mobile 7, an entirely new OS, as quickly as possible.
The problem for Microsoft (again, for Microsoft, not Apple) is that Android now has real traction with manufacturers and a massive amount of devices about to hit (including Droid) should push Windows Mobile behind Android in the hearts and minds of the public. And while it’s still smaller in market share, that could change as well much sooner than Microsoft would like to admit.
Let me be clear: I think it’s pretty likely that eventually Android will be bigger than the iPhone worldwide. Again, it’s a different game. It’s monotheist versus the pagans. It’s Mac versus PC. Even if and when Apple breaks its AT&T exclusivity in the U.S. there will still basically be only one device. Android will have dozens of devices. And even more in other parts of the world. But the iPhone will continue to survive and even thrive, just like the Mac is right now.
By offering one device, Apple is accepting a trade-off: They’re sacrificing quantity for quality. Apple has complete control over its device (and probably too much with regard to the App Store), and because of that, it can build something that melds software and hardware like none of its pagan counterparts can.
In fact, the closest one to doing this is Palm with the Pre. But the Pre is not in the iPhone’s class yet (it’s too slow), and Palm is already getting ready to release another device. And they’re talking about more after that. It’s a more confined pagan religion, but its still pagan. Developers won’t be sure which device they’re developing for, etc.
Apple could go that way too someday. Since the iPhone’s launch, there have been whispers of an “iPhone mini,” but that hasn’t happened yet. More likely in the short term is that Apple’s tablet device may run some variation of the iPhone OS, which would obviously require some changes. But in the smartphone space, there will still be the one device.
And while on the face of it, it may not seem like it, that’s compelling to a lot of people. (Keep It Simple, Stupid and all that.) When you’re forced to choose between dozens of devices with dozens of different specs, it can be daunting for a consumer. With the iPhone, they know what they’re getting. And developers know what they’re getting too. They know they apps will run great on the iPhone because they were able to test it on the device rather than having to buy and test it on dozens of devices.
It’s about controlling the user experience. Whether you agree or disagree with that approach, you have to admit that Apple is very good at it.
Speaking of developers, lest you think any of the pagan smartphone makers will be able to convert iPhone users en masse, there’s a huge point of faith for sticking with the iPhone: Nearly 100,000 applications and 2 billion app downloads. While many people talk about the former being a lure for new users (which it obviously, absolutely is) the 2 billion number is the key for users staying around. Plenty of people have already invested hundreds of dollars in apps which only work on the iPhone. Convincing those people to switch to a Droid or a BlackBerry is going to be difficult. Instead, when they upgrade, they’re likely to pick a device that those apps still work with: A new iPhone.
That’s why this is not about killing the iPhone. Whispers are starting again about a “Google Phone” — that is, hardware developed (or at least entirely dictated) by Google. During the Web 2.0 Summit, Google co-founder Sergey Brin admitted that Google works more closely on some hardware for Android than others, but that’s not enough to make an iPhone killer. If Google (or Microsoft, for that matter) decides to put all of its support (and marketing support) behind one phone, let me know, then we can talk.
But supposedly, even Droid will be a series of phones. Again, the first one looks great. And it could be a real killer. But only because it runs Android, which could be a Windows Mobile killer.
[photos: Miramax, flickr/flywood, Apple]
I guess the over-arching problem would be lazy journos/bloggers using the term ‘killer’ in the first place.
*sigh
(Nice piece, btw)
Thanks. Yeah, sadly that will never go away, it’s too compelling to both read and write (I’m sure I’ve used it before too, though I try to stay away – and prefer things like Google Dropping Nuclear Bombs On Microsoft – subtle).
Actually the problem is the assumption there has to be an individual iPhone killer. There doesn’t.
The iPhone’s death will come but it won’t be a single blow, it’ll be death by a thousand cuts.
Well, maybe not death, more like retirement to mid low single figure market share.
I think it’s cute that you’re waiting for the iPhone death. It’s not coming, and the article does a good job of telling you why.
You may now commence with putting your head in the sand.
The article does a good job of making a lot of assumptions. The iPhone’s sales on the other hand don’t suggest it’s going to be a product that dominates.
Or is it actually selling the 45 million a year that Munster suggested it would in 2009?
Besides it’s not death as such, it’s merely a reduction to a more realistic level.
Actually, I doubt Apple wants to be #1 in the smartphone market. Just as it really doesn’t want to be #1 in the computer market. Why would it want to expand its share to the point where it needs to satisfy an audience that isn’t willing to pay a premium for product and has no brand loyalty. No, what Apple wants is to convert as many people as it can to its ‘religion’ of buying the latest gizmo or gadget that it produces (or at least every other generation). You don’t get that by being everything to everyone.
Every product has it’s day, I guess.
It’s the fact that it will be 1000 cuts, rather than a death blow by a single superior platform, that more likely spells success for Apple. Why? Because 1000 different phones and dozens of variants on operating systems creates a nightmare for developers and stifles the creation of new apps. Apples single OS and single platform eliminates all that friction, and the results are obvious. The BlackBerry is doomed for precisely that reason: http://www.bit.ly/fA4wH
The “iPhone Killer” is catchy!
Any how, the true “iPhone Killer” is Apple itself.
Apple is that kid in class who ruins the bell-curve for everyone else, but who is still criticized for not getting a perfect score and being less than perfect.
Actually it’s the popular and handsome jock who is really cool in high school but ends up bagging groceries after he messes up his opportunities despite having a head start.
You know, like they did with the mass market computer industry.
Ya the guy bagging groceries from whom the CEOs steal their ideas from?
Mark, you do realize that Windows regularly is “inspired” by Mac OS X, right?
Sure. It’s also the OS that won hands down and has 90%+ of the operating system market. I’m just waiting to see if Apple will do it all over again.
Oh yeah, and you do realsie that Apple ‘borrows’ ideas from other companies including Microsoft too, right? It ain’t one way traffic – only a complete moron would believe that.
Sure, Kirk, I also realise that everyone does it to everyone and in the end it doesn’t matter because Windows is still the winner by a massive margin.
Imagine that – you have the leading design, you allow it to be ripped off and then you lose. Embarrassing or what?
Wow. Mark A surely hates Apple. It looks like he has about ten posts to call the company “greedy” or discount their success or predict their immanent demise.
You want to shake him and say “Mark, it’s just a phone. Don’t let it get to you.” But of course that wouldn’t work. Our buddy is like a web stalker. And attacking Apple is what gives his life meaning.
BTW — a very cool article. Most of the media just pumps out the “iPhone killer” talking points. As if they are all doing PR for the same company. But Siegler gets at the core of how these companies are playing the market.
Oh right, Tim, you’ve got nothing but insults either.
Good show, kid. Counterpoints would have been better.
Want to try again?
Actually, Apple (and Apple’s fans, more precisely) is more like that intolerable douchebag of a kid in school whose family had enough money to buy him the best toys every Christmas, while yours were average.
When you’d go to that kid’s house, he knew he had you by the the shorthairs and his shit was great, so he made up all the rules. If you didn’t like the way he played, he told you ‘fine, if you don’t like it you can go home and I’ll stay here and play with my GI Joe aircraft carrier.’ Obviously that wasn’t an option because your blue-collar parents couldn’t afford it.
That kid was snobby, pretentious, and an elitist douchebag. His GI Joe aircraft carrier was the iPhone. Obviously the best, and he was a total douche about letting you know that and telling you to go elsewhere if you didn’t like it.
Android is all the kids who had the mediocre toys, slinking home defeated by the bully, and all winding up on the same sandlot and saying to each other ‘Hey, you know what? Our toys aren’t that great individually, but if we put them all together and worked together, we can all play and have a great time and that’s what it’s about.’
I’ll take Android and comraderie instead of the insolent bully who just wants to go around pointing out how great his shit is while alienating the rest of the world with his insular egomaniacal bullshit.
Ironically, the kid who got the best bike or best playset had nothing to do with his own self worth. He got them becuase his parents were loaded, but he praraded around like he’d done something special by recieving the fruits of others’ labors. You iTards are the same way. You didn’t design the phone, you just own it. All that proves is you can spend $100 without asking your mommy. Stop sucking Apple’s wiener please.
The only thing its doing is increase the market size. No ones killing anyone
Thanks for that article MG! I think I might forward it to a few iHaters, who believe that the Droid (all of them) will kill the iPhone, despite the fact that the G1 & G2 failed to do so for the obvious reasons: Apple’s Apps!
right, James. i guess they are simply using the term to simply create a buzz around their article.
I love my iphone, but the slide out keyboard rocks (IF done right) it IS the design of the future, large screen, nice slide out keyboard. The iphone with a touch screen ONLY keypad that takes up half the viewing area has to change. I am seriously considering the Motorola droid for that reason, the apps are nice on the iphone but truthfully being able to view and type on the web in full glory is more important to me, having half my screen taken up by a qwerty doesn’t appeal to me at all on a device the size of the iphone, it SUCKS.
I am curious. What is it exactly that you want to see when you are typing on an iPhone besides the keyboard and what you are typing?
very true. the ads themselves do not really try to use the message of iPhone Killer. That is left for bloggers and commenters to do.
i like how the iDon’t commercial works as a way to STAND OUT from the iPhone but it does not mean that it thinks the iPhone will no longer be relevant. Only fantics for or against Apple will get into that non-sensible debate.
The bigger problem with iPhone Killers is that they didn’t get a head start. Apple had at least a two year head start on the other companies. That allowed them to gather up significant market share and mind share and become the de facto multi-touch device. Then you have the App Store, which every company in the Western Hemisphere is standardizing on.
When you got banks creating iPhone Apps, you know it has reached a new pinnacle.
The two year head start gave Apple enough time to smooth out all the kinks and make mistakes. You hear a lot of detractors say, well, such and such a phone had more things than the iPhone on release, but those phones aren’t running against the iPhone from two years ago, they’re running against the iPhone we have now, and the iPhone we have now has 90,000 apps.
Anyone releasing an iPhone clone now can’t afford to make any mistakes. And they have to be a selling sensation right out the gate. There will be no build up over time.
People always compare anything Apple does with Apple’s failure with Microsoft and Windows in the 80s, but they miss a big point about that struggle. Microsoft was able to make Windows a success because companies had already standardized on DOS. Windows ran on top of DOS, so Microsoft already had a popular ecosystem to build on when they released Windows. That’s the single greatest reason that Windows came to dominate.
Apple dominant ecosystem is iTunes. The other companies don’t have that.
I agree. The iPhone was first shown to the public nearly three years ago. Few companies are close to achieving the ease of use of that device. I would argue that most companies will continue to fail if they keep chasing a three year old interface and design. Google will be the exception. They aren’t looking to build the next iPhone. They want your searches/emails for AdWords revenue. Plan and simple.
Yes the iphone was the first out and has a head start. I loved my iphone but it is supposed to be a phone. AT&T is the one that will drive sales to new phones. I know more and more people are using there phones for apps but for me it still has to be a phone and AT&T has horrible coverage. If the iphone moves to Verizon and I am not happy with an android phone I will get a new one. Till then I will stick to a phone that I can make calls on. As far as apps I think the android app store will grow fast once there are several new phones. The developers will go where the money is. You will see the same apps on both phones. Will it kill the iphone “no” but it will be equal.
The problem may just be with the question “Why do we need an iphone killer?”.
Is the iphone just a fad like boob tubes, short shorts, hula hoops and the rubik’s cube.
After reading a great story about the death of the Crocs fad I had to put the iphone to the test (well as much of a test as a current “fad” can have)…
http://greenerd...hone-just-a-fad
I would suggest it is not. The reason is mention in the article. Folk have money wrapped up in applications. I do not know how long something needs to be around be for it is not considered a fad, but for electronics that time line should be accelerated. Three years is a really long time for a phone to be popular, and the iphone show no sign of losing its popularity.
well the thing is that there is not A iphone, its the third gen iphone right now, its just that apple makes it seem like the same device by maintaining the outwardly same looks and the same basic interface.
its the same shit they have been pulling in the mac front for years. launch a new macbook? retire the old one. And basically leave no trace that the old one ever existed. No special hardware designation, no special product number, nada, the new macbook is THE macbook, nothing else.
its like that comic hero, the phantom, that every villan thinks is one guy thats been living for ages, when its a whole dynasty of heros, the son taking over when the father finally bites the blade/bullet/poison/whatever. End result is that you have to be “in the know” to tell one apple product generation from the next, by memorizing what the new version introduced when it replaced the old, unibody, non-removable battery, large trackpad and so on.
in the end this tracking of changes becomes a kind of occult knowledge, separating the poser from the “true believer”.
I don’t think a lot of people realise just how brutal the mobile phone market is.
Every few years one handset comes along that dominates for a while then gets overtaken by the next big thing – the StarTac, the RAZR, the N95 and now the iPhone.
Apple’s biggest potential killer is Apple themselves – the iPhone may be a wonderful device but if they don’t change it it’s going to die because the mobile phone market is driven by what’s cool at any point in time and the mobile battlefield is littered with the corpses of yesterday’s heroes.
You’re so cute, ‘Mark A’, with your Apple hatred. If Apple is indeed “the popular and handsome jock who is really cool in high school but ends up bagging groceries”, then who are you? The guy who got ignored, did well in college, has money to throw around, yet is still frustrated to death that the grocery bagger bags hotter chicks?
Aw, life isn’t fair. People just don’t care about your clear ideas of what’s better.
In other words, Arjun, you don’t have anything to say so you have to resort to insults. That’s OK, kid – I didn’t expect any better from you.
Oh by the way – I was popular at high school and college, played rugby for my district and have a hot wife. Sorry I don’t fill your stereotype.
yes but now you spend your days arguing on the internet. fail.
And I get paid whilst I’m doing it. In fact I’m sitting at my desk doing it right now!
Awesome!
It’s more tragic that you’re in school wasting time on the internet instead of learning how to capitalise your sentences.
Please define ‘change it’.
As pointed out above, the iPhone is in its 3rd rev.
Unlike other manufacturers, Apple realizes that change and improvements don’t just mean more buttons and doo-dads.
Apple’s kicking ass and taking names as far as app development goes, and its precisely because they’re not dicking around with splintered form factors that’s making that possible.
Change it as in ‘modify it’s basic design’.
The mobile phone industry is fashion driven and quite, quite brutal. If Apple don’t change the model then they’re going to get dumped by a lot of people because they’re no longer cool.
It doesn’t matter how cool a phone is, it’s how fashionable and once a certain amount of people have one it isn’t fashionable anymore.
Of course they could just continue releasing minor variations on a theme. That’s bound to succeed – oh wait, the RAZR shows that it doesn’t.
The iPhone may not be a fad but its still an Apple cult-like product. We are a Blackberry and iPhone house, my roommate is on his second iPhone, I’m on the second BB. He thinks he will have an iPhone as long as they make them, but he chased phone fads long before iPhone came out. From Razrs to sidekicks to the sliders, he moved to the iPhone. But now he is INVESTED in the iPhone, mostly in Apps, but also because he (like most) don’t know how to move their music off of iTunes.
I say that most of the people that buy Macs become similarly trapped by their investments not only in Mac versions of their software, but by the mindset that Mac is all they know. The windows guys have been chasing fads, be it netbooks, gaming notebooks, all-in-one pcs, etc. But its because we have unlimited options.
I am on that right now. My BB does everything I want it to, cept play good games, and honestly thats ok. But I am bored. So I have been watching Android, specifillay the Droid. I tried to like the Pre – hated it.
I think that we have lots of momentum in BB and iPhones, and if RIM can get a webkit browser and a bigger app pool before Android gains too much ground, then we will continue the two horse race between RIM and Apple. (Android could also fragment easily, which would support the same outcome.) I see Palm gone by end 2010, and WinMO7 will be too late to really matter.
I agre, Jeremy. There will be a residual element that will stay with the iPhone either because it suits their needs or they simply buy anything with a fruit on it.
The mass market though? No. That’ll move on like it always does unless there’s an entrenched player in the market which Apple isn’t (except maybe the US and that’s debatable) – Nokia’s the 800lb gorilla on this block.
You did leave Blackberry out of that equation. Is the Blackberry just a fad too? Think not. It seems that maybe it has all the functions people want so they keep on buying them. That couldn’t be true for the iPhone though because it has fruit on it, right?
Or that it has different models suiting a range of needs and isn’t just one device with minor variations.
Oh and Blackberries have fruit on them. It’s the little cluster on back and the… uh… Blackberry key.
And you have to buy a new phone.. Just like the ipod. This is our greatest ipod till next year when you have to buy a new one.
Chad, the iPod and the iPhone aren’t the same thing (although Apple’s disingenuous method of counting iPod Touches in with iPhones might lead you to think they are) because the iPod is entrenched in its market and releases multiple variations of its product to suit different market segments whereas the iPhone is entering a market that’s already dominated by another player – Nokia – who already releases multiple handsets with multiple variations for different segments. I appreciate it’s different in the US where Nokia have no carrier deals of any consequence but even there it’s unclear as to whose winning between Apple and RIM.
As a device the iPhone is winning the high end but that’s not where the smartphone battle will be won – that’ll be mid tier when people migrate from dumbphones to them – and it’s horrendously vulnerable because if something better comes out – which will happen – it has nothing to fall back on.
Apple’s best chance of dominating the market is to release an equivalent of the Nano – a featurephone or mid tier smartphone at a lower cost. Whether they choose to do so or not is up to them.
Yeah, the phone that served as a wake-up call for an entire industry is just a fad. Please pass whatever it is you’re smoking this way.
The RAZR sure gave the industry a wake-up call, too. Unfortunately, it was so great, the people that built it are the ones that then started sleeping. But the RAZR was a fad for sure.
And once the fashionistas and elitists start realizing that even the masses are carrying the same iPhone, it could very well be time for a new fad.
Excellent post, and your framing is dead-on. That also lines up with the verbal assault by Lee Williams against Android on GigaOM over the weekend.
Symbian and Microsoft have their respective seats at the table very much threatened.
What will be interesting is that Apple will face a matrixing of its platform very soon (although I think that they have anticipated this).
Tablet forces them to iterate their computing vision (Mac – open v. iPhone – governed platform; app unity across platforms v. discrete apps), and will of course irrevocably give them more than one hardware form-factor.
For Android, with device diversity comes a risk of fragmenting the developer ecosystem and the store of apps as a result.
Actually lee’s point was spot on – Google are actually pretty evil and Apple are very greedy.
Neither appear to have a cohesive long term strategy though.
Calling a corporation “greedy” or “evil” is trite and simplistic, which was my problem with that interview. If you don’t call an app store, developer tools, a new OS and app integration (iTunes) a “long term strategy,” you should define the term. Likewise, if you believe that Google does not have a long term strategy, sit on the sidelines and watch.
BTW, RIM is the true target in my humble opinion. The corporate market is more appealing to Google than attempting to compete with Apple. And, RIM still sells more smartphones than Apple.
“Calling a corporation “greedy” or “evil” is trite and simplistic”
And accurate.
Way to view the world of consumer products in a Manichean way. I’m going to guess that you don’t use a single product that isn’t made by Microsoft, having determined in your soul that they’re the Good Guys.
I use Bing for maps, Yahoo for search and mail, and Apple for OS. Clearly, a heathen pagan to be corrected.
Oh wow, Arjun. That’s why I call Microsoft ‘Greedy and Evil’ in a post just below this one. Look, you’re not very good at making assumptions about people so it’s probably best that you quit, eh?
Anyway, I use a Macbook, a W7 box and an Ubuntu box (infrequently). I use a Nokia 5800 for a phone and Google/Bing to search. GMail is my e-mail of choice.
Yeah, I know – Apple product owner criticises Apple. Weird, huh?
See, Arjun, what I also do is question things. I look at these crazy things called ’statistics’ and ’sales patterns’ and ‘market trends’ and I make judgements based on those – not hype, not mindshare (whatever the hell that is) and not rumour.
And the facts tell me this – the iPhone is peaking in demand. If it’s opened to China and multiple carriers in more countries it might push up another 30-50% sales. On the basis of the 3G and the 3GS’s launch numbers it isn’t going to do any better than that and it sure as hell isn’t going to be a 50+ million a year product.
What you guys appear to be missing in all the pomp and circumstance is that we’re not talking about the ‘iPhone’ as a single homogeneous product – we’re talking about three iterations of the device with repeat orders and some increase in volume. A lot of those iPhones and iPhone 3G units are keeping the socks company in a drawer somewhere.
So, over the lifecycle of the 3G it sold about 18 million units, half of which were in the US. That’s really good and it’s dominant in the US but not in any other region it competes in. The 3GS will do a bit better but not spectacularly so.
Apple’s problem is that it’s starting to reach a ceiling and it doesn’t appear to have anywhere else to go. Furthermore, a lot of the people buying iPhones will shift allegiance to the next big thing whether that thing is better or worse. That’s just fashion for you.
Of course, they could release other variants – a Nano or whatever – but then they’re not iPhones, they’re a different product and you can’t pad the numbers with them like Apple try to do rather comically with the iPod Touch (and which the tech press rather tragically never seems to question).
So if you have any counterpoints I’d be glad to hear them – and don’t mention the App store because that’s hideously overblown as a selling point – otherwise quit yer yappin’.
If Google is evil on your scale, I’d have to wonder what you’d call a convicted monopolist like Microsoft.
Switching from Google is as easy as changing some browser settings. Even Gmail has free forwarding for life should you choose to leave. Microsoft purposely builds cages into it’s software and disables features unless you pay for the ultra-premium package of everything.
I’d call them greedy and evil. Our most profitable corporations always are.
Always.
Mark A needs to adjust the Ron Paul sticker on the back of his beat up beamer. It’s peeling.
Oh Arjun, is that really the best you can do? That’s three wrong assumptions you’ve made now.
I’ll give you a hint to what the the third one is: I spell colour with a u.
“I’d call them greedy and evil. Our most profitable corporations always are.”
Really? I think this a questionable claim.
OK. Give me some examples of major corporations who aren’t greedy or evil.
Right. The first time you run IE8, it asks you if you want to keep your default search engine. Windows 7 allows you to disable most software that comes with it, including IE and Windows Media Player. In the European version Windows will even download and install your browser of choice since the beginning.
Apple, on the other hand, only allows you to use Google in the iPhone browser. You can only develop for the iPhone if you’re running OS X.
Google may not be evil after all, but I’m inclined to agree that they have too much power and if history teaches us anything, is that any individual with power will ultimately use this power for his or her own agenda, which may or may not be for the benefit of the people.
Plus you need to have manufactured, not carrier, branded global phone (GSM not CDMA). Something like HTC Hero. Or how much headache Verizon’s Droid will cause in Europe and Asia?
as much as i dont like the iphone, i think droid is THE UGLIEST PHONE ive seen this year. the keyboard looks like the designers took the oldest calculator they had and copied that design. the golden thing on the right of the keypad is not ergonomic for left-handers and looks weird. last, android isnt new so droid isnt new.
windows mobile 7 will be the contender to the iphone.
Remember those dopey pocket computers that Radio Shack sold in the early 80’s?
That’s what the Droid looks like…..I still want one though….people will look at me using one and ask: droid owner or time traveler? Verizon customer or Tardis passenger?
VORP!!!
iDevice doesn’t.
Droid does.
Windows been there, done that.
WIndows ~= iCrash + iSlow + iChargeTooMuch
Really? Slow, often crashing, and always needing a charge, acurately describes the iphone that I wrote this comment on.
The fact that the same manufacturers are using both Windows Mobile and Android (Samsung, HTC) or leaving Windows Mobile for Android (Motorola) is a good hint that you are probably right.
While working on Windows Mobile, iPhone and Android, I find the iPhone controlled-user-experience-concept very different from open platforms like Windows Mobile and Android which makes them much more suitable for the enterprise and probably less attractive to the consumer.
I also like to compare iPhone to Volkwagen Golf in terms of branding (talking about Europe): they manage to have a unique brand for a variety of models, each one taking over the position of the previous one. . Golf has been around for quite a long time. Will we see Golf 3G, Golf 3Gs etc ?
Windows Mobile and Android would be more like Renault/Nissan or Toyota.
Actually, I’d say the iPhone is more like the Mercedes.
The droid push from Verizon is also going to hurt RIM like nothing else. Verizon is RIM’s biggest client and Blackberries enjoyed a near-monopol on Verizon until droid came along
Jesus vs pagans? You’re not even trying to hide you fanboyism. I cannot even call it a freudian slip that you use an irrational framework (religion) to explain the iPhone’s success.
PS: the world doesn’t revolve around Apple. Are you seriously suggesting that Microsoft came to rise primarily due to failures of Apple, and that won’t happen now, because they’ve “got their shit together” and have Jobs back?
nope, not saying that. but there were situations that happened that opened a very big door.
are you suggesting windows mobile is going to kill the iPhone – “and that won’t happen now”?
also, jesus phone FTW.
No, I’m saying your analogy makes little sense, as the undercommunicated assumption is that Apple would have dominated 80s and onwards had it not screwed up. That’a not the case.
Also, whether Windows will dominate or not I don’t know. But I think Ballmer is right on one point: it takes a different business model to dominate a market like Windows does for desktop computers, than it takes to carve out a niche. Apple does not follow that business model, but both Google and Windows does. As the smart phone market grows, it becomes much more likely that one of these will dominate, and Apple has a niche position.
Actually, Mr. Ballmer, (or “anonymous commenter” as you prefer) I think his religion analogy does make sense.
Christianity is the largest religion by population, but it is still dwarfed in size by the combination of the polytheistic religions out there.
http://www.adhe..._Adherents.html
Perhaps in that light you might say that Christianity is a very successful “niche” religion.
Maybe PALM could be as popular as Islam?
Uh, you know that Islam is monotheistic religion, right, and that Buddhism is neither polytheistic or monotheistic? Your argument is simply wrong.
But please, tell me what combination of polytheistic religions dwarf Christianity.
Pretty much.
that’s right. That’s why *they* sell more
who than who?
nokia, rim
http://www.macr...es-to-increase/
Mac is fashion for geeks. Period. Most people get the phones to look to cool or hip.
Other manufacturers & devices need to spend more on marketing. No offense but two years from now, only loosers will carry around an “iphone”.
No, other companies need to spend more on building a better device than the iPhone. Marketing has little to do with it.
People get the iPhone because it does what they want it to do without hassle. My wife, who is about as un-geeky as it gets, told me that she wanted an iPhone 10 minutes after she took a look at mine. Why? Because it made things easy for her, which previously had been difficult, such as posting an image to facebook.
and thats because of the phone, or the facebook app?
i would say that a android, symbian or winmob phone with facebook app would be just as easy.
its just that the iphone managed to sell the world on a app for everything, and that only after hackers showed that the iphone could run third party apps. Before then it was all about custom web interfaces in apples mind.
Apple didn’t sell the “app for everything” model, developers did. Before the iPhone there was not a clear developer path to creating and selling applications on other platforms. That is the innovation, and Apple deserves credit for that success. It is still far and away the leader in terms of user behavior with application purchases and usage. It is also, by every indication, the leader in terms of mobile data usage.
I can’t tell if the iPhone cynics and haters are just trolling or if they really don’t remember what the mobile phone landscape was like prior to the iPhone and the impact that the iPhone has had on it, even before “apps” were available on the iPhone.
Wow people stop thinking that Apple innovated on everything?! They made certain things available to the mass media hence why everyone thinks they invented it.
Apple copied the Sidekick’s model of a central location for creating and selling applications. End of Story.
@topmounter:
I agree that the iPhone made the smart phone market what it is now, but even as an iPhone owner, I’m of the opinion that very soon, Android (and hopefully WinMo7… I’m a sucker for choice) devices will become of comparable quality to the iPhone such that it won’t be so much a question of “this one is better”, but “this one is an iPhone and thus is cooler”.
No phone is going to kill the iPhone. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but MG got it right. Soon most cell phones will be smartphones, and when that happens, if Apple continues to keep the iPhone a closed system on one device, the 300+ million smartphones sold per year will not be iPhones. They will be many devices from many manufacturers that run multi-platform mobile operating systems. The iPhone will continue to thrive as a niche device the same way the Mac continues to thrive.
So far, my money’s on Android, but who knows if another big player comes up with something amazing in the future.
What the phone market was like before the iPhone was summarized here:
Before Apple introduced the iPhone…
http://countern.../26/pre-iphone/
What? Have you used each of these phones? A 3 year old child could figure out the iPhone but give them a windows mobile phone and see what happens.
That is a good point. Maybe you are a 3 year old and need someone to hold your hand. But most smart phone users are not and I fo one would like more choice. If it was up tp Apple we would all be paying way too much for much less.
Its worse than that. Yes the Windows Mobile UI is egregious but the underlying architecture is even worse garbage.
Is it really, Darwin?
And now you’re going to explain why it’s garbage.
Go on. I’m waiting.
i agree. its sad to say, but i do roll my eyes everytim i see people using it. thinking to myself that they have low self esteem, and they resort to getting an apple produt so that other people think they’re cool.
some are cool people. but most are uncool trying look cool.. how sad.
so its the old “wannabe witer/artist” sitting at a table at starbucks with his mac and a latte…
What you are doing now is called projecting. Look into it.
For the most part, personal opinions differ, thoughts and needs for hardware, software, etc. are based on preference. However, I am going to completely and totally disagree with you. It is fairly obvious to me that, based on your statement, that you have never used an iPhone, or used one much longer than the “Bah! This is Apple crap!” stage.
I use the iPhone because not only is it a pretty darned good communications device, but it is also an extremely useful tool for many different aspects of my life: communication (as stated), entertainment, research, reference, mapping, etc. Granted, there are many, many phones out there that can do these things, and I’ve tried many of them, but the iPhone does the job better for me than any other device.
To blatantly state that “Mac is fashion for geeks. Period. Most people get the phones to look to cool or hip” directly displays your ignorance to the world. If you like the Android-, WinMobile-, whatever-based phones, then kudos to you for that. I like my iPhone because it is extremely useful to me. Plus… it makes me look cool!
I don’t know… It seems to losing its cool factor. Even though I have one and I like it quite a bit… There are things I wish it did that it probably will never do due to Apple’s closed system approach. It is grossly overrated. Maybe back in ‘07 or even ‘08 when no other smartphones even came close, it was truly special. Now, however, I just wish AT&T showed Android some love.
Your Apple envy is showing. It’s also a very immature view. Most of the many millions of people who have bought iPhones around the world have zero interest in that. They just know it is the first smartphone that works for them.
How about the N900? Maemo5 could give iPhone OS a run for its money.
Same internals, but with a powerful desktop experience… IMO, this looks like the geek’s dream phone (runs on Linux).
What’s everyone opinion on the N900?
(For those who never witnessed the N900 in action, check out these 2 videos – http://bit.ly/3C6UK4 & http://bit.ly/2Imla9)
Optimus: It’s a hard sell. Americans like it easy or dumb, or both like the iphone.
Sure it might be a mobile computer but unless it comes on a 24 month contract at $100 a month for an upfront cost of just $99 (total $2500) Americans don’t want it because $600 (total $600) is too much to pay.
so nokia should sell it at $100 a month for 6 months?
technically, nokia is not selling it as a phone, but as a pocket computer that can also place calls (including skype calls, integrated into the same call gui as the mobile calls).
The N900 looks nice (especially after the POS N97), but the Ovi store is junk. They need to fix that fast.
Also needs to be sold both subsidized and unsubsidized in the US.
The N900 is a non starter. It will go nowhere real fast.
No Single Mobile OS is going to dominate the way Symbian had in the past.In the end the mobile OS market is going to be quite fragmented . Android and Iphone both have their fair share of issues to contend with.I had written a post with my thoughts on Android and Iphone. Check it out http://thetechstig.com/?p=16
At least the mobile os market won’t be as fragmented as it was in the past when every manufacturer built his own os.
Having 3-4 big competing OSes out there wouldn’t be too bad.
It has been shown time and again by papers too numerous to list. More consumer choices in a specific product reduces confidence that the individual has made the best choice.
Walk into a stereo shop and look at the walls of speaker fronts and the salesman at his switching board. How can you choose between thirty different sonic reproductions of “Gimme’ Shelter”? And the fear, that in fact, you may choose the worst!
One iPhone!! The consumer knows he is getting the best.
I’m already starting to have that feeling with Droid. I was all excited and planned to get it, then along comes the Droid Eris….and now the newest Droid with the Snapdragon processor is rumored for Dec. or Q1. I want the BEST phone and if a newer one comes out a month or two after I buy mine, I will no longer think I have the best. I understand Verizon’s strategy, but they should have developed two Droid devices, one with keyboard and one without…and that’s it. Just keep upgrading those iPhone-style.
But if they insist on having a family of phones, they need to introduce a hardware subscription model where you can own and switch between any Droid or create an “Upgrade Your Droid” option where you can get the newest device for the discounted price. I don’t have an MBA so those options might be completely unworkable, but I don’t want to be stuck with last year’s device two months after I buy it.
But is it really the best? Even after 3 years, my iPhone 3GS fails to bring me one of the most useful features in a PDA/Smartphone: Multi-tasking. I have to quit Pandora and interrupt my music in order to write a spur-of-the-moment idea in the notes app. Really? There is no accessible file system. Lack of customization. It took them 2 iterations to include a simple copy/paste mechanism.
Apple apologists will continue to recite their chant about Apple “protecting the experience” but it is painfully obvious that the reality of the matter is they don’t give a shit because they’ve already got their hand in your pocket. It’s like the guy that’s no longer chivalrous because he already got into your pants.
After 3 years, finally, there are choices out there. Good choices, and choice goes a very, very long way. Will the average consumer care? Probably not. Let them get their iPhones. As soon as a comparable Android (or WinMo7) device comes to my network, my iPhone will find itself in a selling ad in Craigslist.
Your history of Mac v. Windows is completely mistaken.
I think droid will do good but it will take time
watch the “DROID Does” commercials plus reviews over here with anti dorid videos from iPhone lovers as well
http://thetechn...-at-the-iphone/
Do agree with every word. Great analysis.
and here comes the new york times…
http://bits.blo...e-and-the-bear/
Congratulations, MG!
It’s more interesting to think whether calling a new device iPhone killer actually helps it’s chances. I blogged about it last week actually: http://blog.zentity.com/?p=17
I love the hype machine, gradually building expectation and excitement for the product release! The teaser ad caught my attention but it’s how they deliver that will really create the momentum. Bring on the trumpets!!!
Excellent post. Apple’s hardware+software approach absolutely does result in a better experience for the user. I, for one, am willing to pay the “quality premium” for that.
You’re the only dude over there doing research….
I think you made the point MG. Most of the phones never were intended to be Iphone “killers”…Apple made a device that simply connects to the user and makes things simple, sweet, and to the point. I’m a droid user myself but believe me-I’ve gotton real close to defecting.
Droid = Zune
An awesome device that too few people get to experience due to the overrated competition?
It’s finally happened – I’m too far ‘out’ to understand “great” journalism, I guess. The article was overly long, didn’t flow, and the content was, well, silly.
I did enjoy his comment, though, “I try not use the term ‘killer’, blah blah blah yuk yuk yuk”. Other than the title of the blog, eh?
Which draws in unsuspecting readers. Like me. Who vow to delete Tech Crunch from their feed. And then forget to. And then get reminded regularly why they meant to delete the feed.
Pagans. Whatever. Classic low quality blog writing, meant to do nothing more than create traffic (and give flunking college students a forum to say, “Yes, excellent post. Spot on. Magnificent!”.
u suck
I own both an iPhone and an Android smartphone. While Android beats the iPhone down on technical feature and openess, the iPhone simply has the best end user experience.
But the article I think is going too fast over what is the MAJOR difference between the iPhone and any other smartphone contender : the AppStore. There’s just choices enough to make you happy, while on Android the Android Market still fails to bring a good user experience + enough “power” applications. That’s the reason why Google is launching since 2 years the ADC (Android Developper Contest) with the hope that big potential money prices will convince programmers to quit the iPhone and start programming for Android. The fact is that being an Android developer does not help you earn your living at all. Even the “top selling” apps on Android fails to bring decent revenues to its developers. Main reason : Google still does everything like if it were beta products. The Android Market is definitely a BETA product : bad design, not global availability (ie most people around the world do not have access to paid apps) and the obligation to use Google Checkout as only payment system.
Learning to program quality apps takes time – I doubt a lot actual iPhone programmers will start investing time in learning to develop for Android.
Forgot to mention that I don’t agree with the price of apps being a factor for not switching to another smartphone – whether it’s Android or WebOS or WinMobile : the apps are usually priced for less than 5 bucks, so really even if you have 40 apps this wouldn’t be a showstopper for a buyer ready to spend much more money on the device itself.
Agree with Moombe that sunk costs on apps bought for the iphone will not be a significant switching factor stopping people from moving off the iphone. the reason in my opinion is that the most used (and importantly useful) apps on the iPhone are those that will be readily and generally freely available in other major os ecosystems (i.e. Facebook) and that the user hasn’t had to pay for anyway. So the switching costs will be minimal.
You should look at the developer tools for android. If you can make apps for iphone then it will be easy to move to android. They are not bound to develop for one company. They will continue to develop for apple and then also make for android. The only reason up till now they have not made many apps for android is the fact that they only had one phone that ran it. Now that every network will have an android phone you will see lots of new apps…
Sorry MG, but i humbly think you got it all wrong.
The problem with “iPhone Killers” is very simple- they’re nor iPhone, and they are not entirely different.
In order to kill a “monster” of a product, you need to create one of two things: either a product which is MASSIVELY better (not just slightly better) or a product that solves the same problem(s) with a completely different (and again, better) approach.
None of the so called iPhone killers did neither, although some of them did some things better.
This situation is the same everywhere you look. Why is it so hard to kill Windows? cuz nobody does things MASSIVELY better or completely different (actualy, the smartphones could be that second kind of solution).
And the same goes for google in search. Bing does a lot of nice things, but it’s not all that better or different. Just anoither search engine.
For people to change their habits/views/pre-conceptions, you have to have a revolution.
Now, as for the pegans vs monotheistic metaphore, i think it breaks down on the Palm Pre. Although Palm were clear about having some more devices with the same OS up their sleeve, the pre was out there alone for long enough (and buzzed about for much longer) to be considered a single device, perfected to compete with the iPhone. And while it does some things better, all in all, it’s not ALL that better.
iPhone is actualy not all that big when it comes to sales, but it’s winning in the “brand awareness” contest. I’m not even sure other companies are in that contest.
Android and Windows Mobile are in a completely different game. They’re not trying to sell more devices, they’re trying to get more devices to work with them. And it seems that Android is going in the right direction. Droid doesn’t have to “kill iPhone” alone. it can be mildly succesful, but together with other Android phones, it will have a much bigger market share, sooner than you can imagine.
Amen
Christ. that entire long post can be summed up as follows:
The Problem with iPhone Killers… is that they’re not the iPhone.
What if Nokia and MSFT got around to collaborate? They will have the same advantage of quantity over quality that Windows had over Mac. Remember how IBM PC choosing DOS almost killed the Mac and doomed it to <10% market share for eons to come.
Kind of Evangelist…
The iphone will continue to dominate for a long time yet. The fact is, it was so ahead of its time & still is a very beautiful, sexy, easy to use device. All the various apps, storage, video, music etc just help that. The content on the app store won’t be beaten by any other provider for a while. Noone really buys the iphone anymore to be cool because everyone has one, this will increase even more as more network providers have access. No, they buy them because they are such a good device ahead of the rest of the market in what it can offer.
Except it doesn’t actually dominate. Not in sales and not in market share.
I meant more in mind share and I am speaking from a UK point of view as o2 has gained a couple of hundred thousand customers as a result of iphone exclusivity. In London I notice a tonne of people have them ie travelling on the tube. Orange & Vodafone have access this Xmas and the Orange CEO recently said in an interview, his number 1 priority was to bring the iphone to his network – in the same interview, he mentioned about his son’s iphone, I would suggest this must have been jailbroken as he wouldn’t be using the o2 network thats for sure! Anyway, with 2 more providers coming on board, sales will get a good boost in the UK through 2010 and this will carry through to the London Olympics 2012 with developers coming up with a ‘killer’ Olympic multi-level game & other useful London apps
“I meant more in mind share”
But not sales.
Mind share is a completely pointless concept unless it translates into sales because the average consumer has the attention span of a goldfish.
Apple’s issue is that they’ve put all their eggs in one basket. It’s a very good basket but it’s also three years old, pricey and new baskets come out every year.
but it WILL translate into sales – just watch, look at the graphs (& again I am talking UK). Apple have already released a cheaper version, you can get 8gb, 16, 32 etc and with 3 providers, prices will become even more competitive, in fact the phone will actually be free by next year on some packages. I only had to pay £100 for my 16Gb at the start of the year – that is cheap for what I have got out of it!
I am not some evangelical Apple fanboy, I just know a good product when I see one and using other smartphones initially like blackberry storm, android, I just think this is way beeter. Apple release enhancements, software updates – they don’t need to change the actual hardware too much as the article states. My phone will still be modern next year at the end of my 18 month contract and I will be more than happy having it as my phone. No need to upgrade for me, my apps will keep me going for a long time.
But James, it hasn’t. That’s the point – if there was a tipping point it would have happened by now.
http://en.wikip...per_quarter.svg
The 3GS’s sales aren’t that much better than the 3G’s despite it being a superior product. The iPhone is today’s smartphone to have. There is no guarantee it will be tomorrow’s.
who is having olympics in 2012?
thanks for the graph. sales are now on the increase, the price is coming down, it is more easily accessible & now available in more markets. also, a lot of people have been tied into existing contracts. I had to wait a while to buy mine while my other one lapsed, plus there has been provider exclusivity. anyway, like any product it will reach critical mass & may indeed become old hat. I just know that this is the first mobile ph I have had where I have been happy not to upgrade within the 18mth contract term as the software updates have been quite sufficient for me and the extra content available through the store.
“The fact is, it was so ahead of its time & still is a very beautiful, sexy, easy to use device.”
Easy to use? Yes. Beautiful and sexy? More like dated and pedestrian. It’s high time Apple refreshed the appearance of the iPhone. Ditch the tacky chrome and maybe do something about all of that dead space on the front that makes the screen look like it’s letterboxed for starters.
20 different apps on the home screen isn’t too bad and it still doesn’t look too crowded. Plus of course the individual developers often update the cover of their apps so it continues to evolve and still look very colourful & sexy. Not too many other smartphones etc look any better and with all the different covers also available, the chrome isn’t such a problem imo.
Its amusing that those who deride the iPhone as a ‘fashion accessory’ can only point to its cosmetic appearance as the change that has to be made.
What makes the iPhone classic is precisely the fact that it DOESN’T continually change form factors.
In the fast moving world of consumer electronics “classic” = old. Look at the iMac, does it still look the same as the original or even the iLamp? Of course not. Ditto for the iPods, the Shuffle certainly doesn’t have the “classic” look.
Ok lets stop with the apps. Only about 10% of the iphone apps are worth anything. Really a salt shaker simulator. Is that a quality app. How about the shot gun simulator. All the fart machines. Such good quality apps.
You must have stayed up late writing this article or something. Your typos tripled on page two. I’m not a grammar Nazi. I’m just a teacher who is brainwashed into looking for that crap. It is a sickness. One editing tip that helps is to read your article backwards. Your brain fools you into thinking what you have written looks correct, but it can’t do that backwards. It catches a lot of “you” “your” mistakes and other omissions. The good news is that I made it through the article at least. Lest you think that I am an intellectual…I wouldn’t mind Apple products if I didn’t have to become a condescending snob to use one. It is funny that one can be turned away from a product simply by those that use it.
u sound like a poorly paid american teacher. u probable wudnt be able to afford the iphone anyways, so just chill with your nokia 3310… LOL
I hate how the iphone only lets you run one app at a time, like they mention in the ads but I don’t think I hate it enough to actually switch using phones.
Thank you. My point exactly.
Absolutely untrue. The iPhone runs a lot of background processes and apps. Enjoy trying to use data while talking on your Verizon Android phone. It won’t work.
I’m a Windows Mobile person myself, I guess from my persective. Who got on the mountain top and procliamed there was something to “kill” in the first place? ANSWER other Apple people, who are so excited they finally have a Mobile device they are willing to denounce all everything. DUDE We’ve had pocket PCs and Mobile Phones for the last 10 years and if you want to without breaking contract or voiding a warranty, install bootable LINUX and have Windows Mobile and Linux?
Don’t get me wrong I think what Apple did was great for the rest of the industry by Media Blitzing segments of previously non-Techy populations like Mom’s and Grandma’s into thinking they needed Gadgets BUT for the serious dorks of the world We’ve had this Junk for years now.
“We’ve had this Junk for years now.” As a former stylus-bound user, junk is exactly the right word. What we haven’t had in the last 10 years is a mobile OS that is NOT junk. And now we have 3. Pretty good time for us mobile users.
But see that’s what I mean. Your trying to tell me that it’s easier the draw on a screen with your GIANT FINGER TIP? DUDE stop lying to yourself. I’ve got both capacitive touch devices and resistive touch, and to this day if I have to take notes on a touch screen it’s easier to write, draw and interactive with the sensitivity of a “pen tip” than a GIANT FINGER. So again, the iPhone is cool but the only reason people think a FINGER TIP is acceptable is because people are using like a TOY. I would argue to anyone. go take notes in a lecture for an hour with your FINGER TIP…. it doesn’t work.
why wud u take notes in a lecture with a phone anyways? u dont have a laptop or netbook?
Indeed but they don’t fit in a Pocket.
Part of the problem is that Verizon is a company that doesn’t really strike me as sexy or cutting edge and it tries to tell me that a Verizon branded phone like the droid is as awesome and sexy as the iPhone and I just don’t buy it. Now if Google would maybe step up and try to market it under the Google brand it would have more credibility.
I mean that’s like Kia all the sudden trying to sell luxury cars under the Kia brand, it just doesn’t work. Wireless carriers constantly release cheap flip phones under their own brand and water down their brand image by doing do, hence they shouldn’t be surprised when their attempts in the smartphone / luxury phone segment fails. That’s exactly the reason why Apple will never sell a $349 netbook or Dyson a $79 vacuum cleaner. They definitely try to compete in various segments, but will always be at the upper end of the pricing range and steer away from lower end segments all together.
It really boils down to the phone brand itself. People buy into the Apple iPhone & Blackberry brand, not into Verizon or AT&T.
Critics say it’s all hype, but isn’t everything we buy because of a hype? Buying groceries at a certain store, buying a certain car brand, buying a certain toilet paper brand, buying a certain computer brand, trying out a new restaurant. It’s all because we buy into the hype.
“And they’re talking about more after than.”
Did you mean “And they’re talking about more after that”?
Religion is a good analogy. Another is Lord of the Rings. The iPhone is the One Ring to rule them all.
The major difference between the mac and the iphone is that Apple doesn’t control the whole experience with iphone. AT&T controls a lot of it and are doing a poor job. Despite being an Apple enthusiast and having made a big investment in apps, I’ll be pretty tempted to switch to anything that gives me a good user experience (ie not Windows Mobile) on either Sprint or Verizon. It would be SO nice to be able to make phone calls again…
So, the iPhone killer is already … dead!
All these nonsense comments about iPhone users being snobs and pretend to be cool are just nonsense.
I’m sure I’m not the only one who has gone through countless mobile phones because of frustration and disappointment. I’ve kept all my mobile phones as a souvenir including my very first Motorola phone. I have 22 so far. I’m also a Verizon user (for work) and a T-Mobile for personal.
I would drop Verizon any day if I could use my officially APPLE-unlocked iPhone with T-Mobile for work. I have a brand new Blackberry Storm. Yes, it’s nice, but I’ve sent it twice to have that trackball fixed. The quality isn’t there plus it is SLOW! Not only is My iPhone faster (even on Edge) but it is more seamless than my Storm. I often find myself responding to my work email from my iPhone.
It’s all about personal taste. I don’t like the look of qwerty keyboards. I don’t like them on my Storm nor did I like them on my G1. It’s all about personal taste.
Quit complaining! I’m sure these iPhone haters would not turn down an iPhone if they were given to them. Your hatred and complaints about iPhones come across as jealousy and as I can feel it thousands of miles away.
BlackBerry Storm? Trackball?
I think I know why you’re unhappy with the performance of the trackball on your BlackBerry Storm… THERE IS NO TRACKBALL!
Nothing is going to kill the iPhone. The best anyone can hope for is to provide a true, legitimate alternative to the iPhone.
Right now, the iPhone has no competition… and it shows. Because Apple is not hesitating to make short sighted moves to attempt to lock customers in, make sure customers do exactly what they want, all while pissing off the customer. Who… has no alternative.
That’s why competition is good. We should all hope that the Android really puts the fire under Apple to at the very least, go back to the practices that they used to preach about regarding lock in, DRM, etc.
Just my 2c.
It’s just like all the iPod killers that were supposed to take on Apple like the Zune. Trouble is no one wants to buy those other devices when you can get the real thing!
It is not just about the Iphone!! Is about what Steve Jobs and Co. are capable of doing; think about it, for “regular people” (meaning no TechCrunch readers) the Droid would just be another phone. If a phone that is 100% better than the Iphone shows up can Steve deliver something else? Thats the key to Kill the Iphone
good post, MG. the one thing to add is the all-important business model discussion. as with its computers, Apple sells a premium priced iPhone at retail price, while the various OEM’s only get lower wholesale price from their telco partners. Plus Apple gets all the iTunes revenues that the telcos want to grab with the other brands. the result will be Apple generating far more revenue from its phones – billions – than the Android OEM’s do even when Android is selling more total units. Google doesn’t care since it makes its revenue from ads. but poor MS – a paltry $25 per phone combined with declining unit sales adds up to almost zilch. the telcos of course are trying to gobble up as much of the revenues as possible, but competing with each other to sell cheap smartphones – Android or whatever – they wind up cutting each others throats instead.
This piece was probably your best. While the analogy was played out it was good to bring up the point that the current users have already invested in the various apps. Creating a loyalty that will continue to grow. I will use this analogy to make my point:
I think we can think of this current IPhone user base to a type similar to fundamental/evangelical religions. Those people invest so much into their religions that they will NEVER convert. Even if their are other “truths”. Similarly that is true of this IPhone current user base.
These types of religions sometimes push people away for being too stringent. They demand them to their “platform” and if you don’t you are shunned. Sometimes people of this faith “reject” people for no good reason. Pushing people away that way as well.
However, their comes along a new religion that inspires people enough to have some converts and capture those who never were religious at all. The rejects also come running and that religion grows and starts to spread.
In the end Apple will lead to its own downfall because it doesn’t allow its users/developers to have more freedom.
The problem with iPhone killers is that people need to stop saying, “This is going to kill the iPhone” – because nothing ever will, and it just builds up too much hype and leads people to be disappointed.
As you say, Android will very likely be in more hands than the iPhone worldwide, within a couple of years – but that doesn’t mean the iPhone is going to fail or is going anywhere. It will be here forever.
Good post.
I feel that Apple has almost maximized their early entry into the market with the mot innovative phone hardware and software. Superb, it is. But if I were to graph out the history of it and the near future… I see more balance among the other most innovating companies. At some point, it seems inevitable that the hardware and software for smart phones (mobile mini computers) will be so similar in terms of look & feel that it will come down to the intricacies of user preference and loyalty and not much else.
Android can only get better and now is running on the industry’s cutting edge hardware. Android 2.0 is being released on some of these new Droid phones. In a year, Android should be so advanced and tuned that the user experience should be on par with Apple’s offerings. A standard excellent experience has to be reached by all competitors at some point. The advantage to Android devices will be in personalization/customization whereas the advantage of Apple will be a forced UI (KISS).
It is feasible that an almost exact clone of the iPhone shell could be used (Though for all we know Apple has some manufacturing patents to make it more difficult to produce exact replicas of the shell). But their is no strong data suggesting that the iPhone shell is what people really want or that it is the most practical design. It succeeds in looking sexy and almost alien-like. But I have usability concerns with it. I think usability was deliberately compromised in favor of the sexy slick look. Reminds me oh fancy high heel shoes that so many women torture themselves with. Ok maybe not exactly that extreme
But the point is made.
As for the App Store and the huge libary of apps the Apple can provide to iPhone users…. Yes this is a valid consideration for either choosing to become and/or remaining an iPhone user. However, this is in my opinion sort of a scam against the developments of the Open Web and new cutting edge Web Browser Technology. Companies are trying to leverage (and milk) the state of the Mobile Web (that’s what it was called before app mania but maybe not so descriptive now) by ignoring the Web part and focusing on platform-tuned apps. That is fine and logical at this point I have to admit but the future is the Web App. The mobile web browsers running on powerful mobile machines will be able to take advantage of everything that an “App” can.
Right now, “There’s an app for that.”
Eventually (and in many cases already)…
There’s a web app for that.”
Apple comercial ads almost entirely focus on this App Phenomena as the differentiating factor for potential customers. Apple knows that the hardware, software and user experience on phones are reaching a balancing point and is increasingly more difficult to stand out as being far superior. Apple may keep the edge for a while longer but beyond a few patent-protected gimmicks here and there… most people will not be able to quickly and simply deem one as shit and one as gold (unless you are a fanatic for a brand). So Apple focuses on the huge library of apps and also on Gaming. They don’t focus on phone features or phone quality. They focus on apps… apps that are not free and where they take a large percentage of the cost. Apps that they must approve which has gotten hairy often times. Apps that dont need to even be apps but only are so that they can be included in the App Store. Apps that are gimmicks like fart noises. Apps that are single features and not full-featured programs. nearly 100k apps but where only 5-10 are really needed and the rest are impulse purchases that many will quickly forget about. Etc etc.
All of this does not even consider the network (Verizon, AT&T, Sprint, T-Mobile etc) that the phone device is exclusive with. I won’t even get into that since this is long enough.
I so agree. I owned the iphone and had 5 pages of apps and only used about 5 all the time. I don’t think you can boast about 85000 apps when most are as dumb as the salt shaker simulator…
Awesome content MG, keep it coming
“Iphone Killers” always commit suicide!
I agree with your premise, and was screaming it at the radio this weekend as Leo Laporte was stupidly echoing the ‘iPHone killer’ meme.
However…
“By offering one device, Apple is accepting a trade-off: They’re sacrificing quantity for quality.”
… is 180 degrees off.
But now fragmenting into dozens of feature-differentiated devices, Apple is allowing the ‘quantity’ to play out where it should… in the software and applications.
Plenty has been written about the advantage iPhone/touch developers have in writing to a consistent form factor, compared with Android/WinMo developers who have to anticipate a myriad of form factors.
Apple is not only going ‘monotheist’ (good anology), but a bit ‘ascetic’, by providing solid hardware basics and letting the consistent software do the driving.
“By not”… not ‘But now’.