Today at the Web 2.0 Summit in San Francisco, Morgan Stanley Managing Director, Mary Meeker, gave her usual quick presentation with a ton of information. Rather than trying to squeeze it all in (which not even she can in her 15 minute presentation), I will embed the slides below when they are up and hit on her major points.
Overall, she notes that Morgan Stanley sees many good signs that the economy is recovering. She notes that stock markets usually are a leading indicator of recovery, and certainly we’ve been seeing that recovery in the tech sector (see: Apple). That’s good news because the tech industry is now the most highest capitalized market, it’s no longer the financial industry.
Meeker thinks we’re in a new computing cycle with the mobile web. Meeker believes Apple’s iPhone and iPod touch are leading the way here, big time. She thinks the mobile web will be 10 times as big as the more traditional desktop Internet, and that it will grow much faster.
She also notes that the technologies around it are exploding: Wi-Fi, GPS, 3G, Bluetooth, etc. And all of this is exploding in a recession, she notes.
Other key points:
- Location-based services are the “secret sauce” of what makes the mobile web interesting.
- The iPhone/iPod touch is the fastest growing piece of hardware the world has ever seen.
- And usage share versus market share of the iPhone is incredible, meaning it will only grow.
- Facebook is becoming the multimedia repository, and it will allow you to do so much.
- Companies absolutely need to be on board with the mobile web. They have some time, but they need to act.
Find the full slides below:
Sounds like she’s been keeping up with TechCrunch fairly well.
Looks pretty much like that doesn’t it.
The iphone is not the fastest growing piece of the hardware the world has ever seen.
The mobile phone was and still is the fast adopted device in the world. The iphone is just one small chunk of that. Unfortunately the iphone owners can’t see past their little walled gardens.
Mobile has been the business to get into for the last 5 years. Because of the above.
As for the rest well they’re bleeding obvious if you look at the stats.
Wish I had her job. Browse techcrunch all day and get paid to summarise it.
LOL, since when has a stock market surge meant that the recession is over? The economic fundamentals are still totally screwed up. Soaring unemployment, etc.
Add to this a collapsing dollar and, well, I think all these iPhones w/ foreign semiconductors are gonna get a lot more expensive. Even if the Nasdaq (nominally) soars.
agreed. unemployment is a huge deal, and tech’s not immune.
Didn’t you get the memo? Everything is fine now, nothing to see here.
Dow 30,000 by May!
What a good week for Apple getting ton of love
After the Apple earnings report? OLD NEWS. To think, these people are sitting on wall street continuing to earn the big bucks. She’s been wrong before.
Impressive data indeed. Well packaged.
You cannot build an economy properly without proper industry.
Yes, AAPL has some intellectual property going for and so does RIMM but if you look at where the actual products are produced, it’s in Asia. If you look at AMD, it has no manufacturing facilities in the US any more. Neither do many other companies.
In addition, the shareholders of those companies are not necessarily Americans. If the US government had bought AAPL instead of C or BAC, then Mary Meeker could have a point but here we talk about Multinationals owned by multiple shareholders all over the world who happen to have their headquarters in Palo Alto or Cupertino but their actual added value is generated all over the world, mostly in Asia.
And who cares if the mobile web becomes huge? Facebook is huge, so is Twitter but this is just mental cotton candy for entertainment value. That is what the service economy is.
Unfortunately, the economy, wherever it is, will remain stagnant until we start to actually produce physical goods throught the revival of the manufacturing base or until the next asset bubble. The former would be good but will only be possible by slow but sure dollar devaluation. The latter would be unsustainable and lead to a bigger crash.
It seems like we are having both now (Dow at 10K, Dollar flirting with all time lows) and more likely the future holds a little bit of both as well. Let’s hope it’s more of the former than the latter.
You cannot build an economy properly without proper industry.
Yes, AAPL has some intellectual property going for and so does RIMM but if you look at where the actual products are produced, it’s in Asia. If you look at AMD, it has no manufacturing facilities in the US any more. Neither do many other companies.
In addition, the shareholders of those companies are not necessarily Americans. If the US government had bought AAPL instead of C or BAC, then Mary Meeker could have a point but here we talk about Multinationals owned by multiple shareholders all over the world who happen to have their headquarters in Palo Alto or Cupertino but their actual added value is generated all over the world, mostly in Asia.
And who cares if the mobile web becomes huge? Facebook is huge, so is Twitter but this is just mental cotton candy for entertainment value. That is what the service economy is.
Unfortunately, the economy, wherever it is, will remain stagnant until we start to actually produce physical goods throught the revival of the manufacturing base or until the next asset bubble. The former would be good but will only be possible by slow but sure dollar devaluation. The latter would be unsustainable and lead to a bigger crash.
It seems like we are having both now (Dow at 10K, Dollar flirting with all time lows) and more likely the future holds a little bit of both as well. Let’s hope it’s more of the former than the latter.
Ouch my head hurts.
Such “predictive” analyses are the reason why we got into the mess in the first place. they shuld make these ppl write real code.
There’s some very impressive charting in that report — page 33 onwards — very interesting. Thanks!
3 monkeys * ahem * i mean ibanking analysts, were killed during the production of this slide deck.
+1
iTouch?
Would not Touch.
Explain to me why we should listen to her? If you had followed her advice in 1999 you would be bankrupt.
thanks captain obvious. new insights please.
Wall Street analyst, has a more gullible breed of half-wit ever walked the Earth? Well, maybe financial reporters.
if i were a morgan stanley client, i’d have a hard time trying to figure out how to use this info she is spewing. what is her actionable advice?
Japan thing definitely seems real. When we launched our iPhone app (english only) we were surprised more than a quarter of the downloads were coming from Japan. See the country breakdown here: http://twitpic.com/maxja
Wall St. led everyone down the dotcom bubble, then the real estate bubble, and now once again another stock bubble.
The S&P closed today @1091. It first hit that number in March of 1998. In 11 years, you got nothing – except dollar depreciation.
Good luck listening to Wall St for investment advice.
Following up – Nasdaq closed today at @2163. It first hit that number in December of 1998.
10+ years and nothing except dollar depreciation.
I do recall she was quite positive about most things last time round too ;-)
Caveat emptor, as they say…..
Mary’s work was so full of integrity during the dotcom boom…
It’s not really the mobile internet but the device agnostic capabilities of the internet platform, but i’m sure she knows this. :)
well it’s obvious.. mobile is the future!!
Fred Wilson had a good write up about what the “Mobile Web” is, over on his site at http://www.AVC.com
and was commenting how this was a “Big Week” for the mobile web, based on iphone getting some competition with the droid, plus now “in app” purchasing in iphone apps, and the standard being agreed on for broadcasting to mobile devices
Pretty interesting discussion ensued
Of course iPhone is awesome. So?
I’ve enjoyed Mary’s firehose of data every year, but I’ve found that it’s tough to share with others given the sheer density of information. Here’s are the data points and slides from yesterday’s presentation that I found to be most interesting – http://bit.ly/1Va8oa – pulled together for sharing with our own constituents. Whether you agree with her conclusions or not, it’s a great swath of deeply distilled information.
That Mary Meeker report is pretty much the same stuff her and her interns have been pumping out since the ’90s. Check it out for a regurgitation and updating of conventional “wisdom,” that’s about it. I did annotate one of her charts, however: http://twitpic.com/mcuf9/full
Microsoft’s (MSFT) latest efforts to gain market share with it’s Bing search engine, advertising and social media battles over Google heats up with new deals announced with Twitter and Facebook. Well timed, as Microsoft prepares for the new Windows 7 release tomorrow … http://seekinga...post_submission
Economy has been really hard hit. I just learned PCWorld Canada would shut down their operation.
http://www.pcwo...799e8a8/pg1.htm
blah blah blah…incomprehensible slide…blah blah blah…technology is changing the laws of physics…blah blah blah…tell me something I don’t already know?
iPod touch rocks!
The launch of the iPhone has changed the mobile ecosystem so dramatically that we almost need a new way to measure time in mobile. You can’t really describe how the ecosystem works without specifying if you are referring to the time Before the iPhone (Bi) or After the iPhone (Ai) in the same way that historians refer to BC and AD to date historical events.
Interesting data and some good charting, and I absolutely do share the view that the mobile web will be larger than some people realize today. However, I feel compelled to comment on some of the Japan-related parts because they’re a little fuzzy:
Regarding mixi’s mobile vs. PC traffic (p. 41): it’s true that mobile growth has been huge for mixi. However, it’s considerably less impressive if you take into account the fact that many sections of the site on mobile are broken down into much smaller chunks than on the PC, i.e. for the same amount of information/functionality on one PC page on mixi, you may need anywhere from 2 to 4 mobile web pages.
Secondly (I know she didn’t postulate this, but it’s worth pointing out anyway): mobile vs. PC traffic on mixi does not reflect the actual distribution of mobile vs. PC-based revenues – and the revenues are what matter, not the traffic. Due to the combination of the facts that a) mixi relies very heavily on advertising for revenues (accounting for more than 90% of its total revenues), and very little on paid services (as opposed to what’s stated in the footnote on the slide) and b) mobile advertising inventory is much cheaper than PC web inventory (there are a number of reasons for that, which I won’t go into here), I’d be very surprised if mixi were getting more than 50% of its revenues from mobile.
I also find it funny that mobile traffic is apparently 65% and PC traffic 26% – what type of device are the remaining 9% supposed to be coming from? mixi on car navigation systems (which would actually be cool, but does not exist yet)?
To put the information regarding Japan’s Mobile Internet Revenue Mix (p. 44) into context, since the data alone makes it look like mobile commerce is massive: Why the mobile commerce market is almost twice as big as the mobile content market (called “mobile paid services” in the presentation) and accounts for such a large share of the pie overall is not because usage is higher for mobile commerce than for content (the opposite is true), but because the average purchase value is much higher — buying shoes or a flight tickets online adds up much more quickly than mobile music downloads and similar.
Things are the opposite for mobile advertising revenues: Both media and production costs for mobile advertising are so much cheaper compared to other forms of media that the mobile advertising market and its share of the mobile industry pie looks a lot less impressive than the actual significance mobile advertising has in Japan.
I know it’s very difficult to go into details like these when you are aiming to drop a ton of data on people’s heads in a few minutes, but there are innumerable misconceptions about the mobile industry in Japan (which, by the way, does rock), so it’s worth setting a couple of things straight.
here comes the analyst again .. run, run .. thinking she can again pump and dump on innocent ones .. this time it’ll be mobile .. she should know ’cause she has mba, right?
Mary you parasite, what exactly do you do? What do you produce at the end of the day? You makes you an authority? Your type should all be fired, worthless bunch who make wrong predictions. What a joke.