Local news always seems to get the short end of the stick, both in terms of coverage and advertising dollars. And as the entire newspaper industry continues to struggle for survival, the prospects for local news looks particularly bleak. It just doesn’t pay to have a reporter cover a neighborhood farmer’s market when she could be covering the Mayor’s office or something with broader appeal. And so traditional news organizations are abandoning local and hyperlocal news.
Don’t worry, though. Media consultant, blogger, and CUNY professor Jeff Jarvis has a few ideas for how to replace the local newspaper with new business models for news at the hyperlocal level. He just gave a presentation at an Aspen Institute forum on journalism today (live stream).
His answer is to organize local bloggers and citizens into a metro-wide network in each of the top 25 markets, and sell local ads across their sites. Each hyperlocal site would remain independent but join a loose federation for ad sales, distribution, and shared costs. Jarvis sketches out what a new news organization might look like at the local level, and goes out on a limb by offering actual spreadsheets showing some assumptions about audience size and how the business model would work. There is also a spreadsheet for doing this through a non-profit.
As everyone from Esther Dyson to Michael Kinsley and Marissa Mayer pointed out at the forum, the numbers don’t look very realistic. The model assumes in a metro market of 5 million people, the hyperlocal network will be able to get 1.75 million readers (35 percent penetration) in Year 1, growing to 3 million readers (60 percent penetration) in Year 3. The corresponding revenues for each market go from $5 million in Year 1 to $20 million in Year 3.
For a large local blog, that could translate into total revenues of $126,976 in Year 1, going to $331,640 in Year 2, with corresponding income for the blogger of $42,777 in the first year, going to $148, 269 in the third (see table below).
These numbers are way too optimistic. In order to get to those revenue numbers, the model had to be pumped up with SMS alerts, Twitter coupons, a “donation system for watchdog journalism,” and other lines of revenue which may never an out. Most people are just not that interested in what is going on in their neighborhoods. A local blog network would be lucky to get 20 percent of a metro area’s population as regular readers across multiple sites.
Former Slate editor Michael Kinsley asked Jarvis, “If it is as easy as you make it sound, why aren’t you off doing it?.” Google product chief Marissa Mayer was a little more diplomatic, but suggested the numbers need a “sanity check.”
To be fair, Jarvis and CUNY are presenting the models for discussion and to show how an alternative, semi-distributed local news organization might emerge that can pay for itself. The numbers are wrong, but that hardly matters. They are a starting point for a reconception of how local news can be organized.
“Aren’t you reinventing the wheel?” Kinsley asked him. “I think it needs some reinvention,” responded Jarvis. “We wanted to see if there is a vision for the future of journalism.”
When Jarvis was asked who the dominant species would be in this new ecosystem, he answered: “No one owns the whole thing anymore. No one can afford to own it anymore. So the key thing is how do you take part in the network.” His numbers might be way off, but at least he is trying to rethink the news.
Newspaper industry struggles yet I don’t know any newsworthy or great blog to read.
Maybe it’s time to drop that bone and move on? Blogs are irrelevant and always be – atleast up to news that really matter.
I remember reading that Twitter was about to kill newspapers? I guess Twitter will die before
Blogs are irrelevant? Whe do you get this sition from?
I am surprised that no one called 123 on this.
Short URL in tweet doesn’t exist: http://tcrn.ch/6cJyby
Might want to fix that.
I’m just glad someone is trying to keep the infrastructure together. Ben Franklin and Lincoln used local papers to be the people’s voice. If local blogs are the next step, so be it…
They can laugh at Jeff Jarvis all they want, but he is the most articulate voice out there when it comes to rethinking local news. Unfortunately, station owners and managers cling to past models … and now, apparently, the digital elites seem to be inclined to mock his creative thinking?
it’s not mocking his thinking, it’s mocking his numbers–which are obviously bonkers and deserve to be mocked
Unfortunatelly, his ideas don’t work in the real word, and he doesn’t have any real solution to “save journalism”, although he pretends that he does.
He can preach about “free” and “link economy” all day, but his only successful endeavor was his printed book.
Yep, he’s a smart guy in academic, theoretical circles, but it doesn’t quite work in the real world. Or, it does, but the numbers are a lot lower than anyone really wants
Although I definitely think the concept of hyperlocal blogs has a huge future, I don’t know how you can take seriously a plan that is projecting $49k for “a series of iPhone apps” by year two or one that counts “ads for local sales/promotions” under 8 different names and a few million dollars right off the bat.
It’s pretty easy to add a dose of reality to this. Combine Gothamist and Curbed, two sites in the biggest, most bloggiest city in the world. Are they making anything close to these figures? How many competitors have they fended off? Are we honestly under the impression that that ecosystem can be recreated in Tulsa or Fresno?
Ryan
Well, our company makes about $45k/year on a single iPhone app side project, which has moderate sales (top 20 sales in its category), no promotion, and no dedicated developer resources.
So I’d say yeah, that’s actually eminently doable.
Are you selling local news?
I’m just making the point that $49k isn’t a difficult bar to reach in the app store. And, most apps have to compete in open water. Getting 50k installs of a dollar app, via a high-traffic site in a metro area of 5M over two years sounds pretty doable.
I got the chance to hear Jeff Jarvis speak a couple weeks ago and the guy is smart. I loved him. I;m not sure he has the perfect model yet or all the answers, but I like the way he’s thinking about things.
In terms of bashing old media, Eric you are on fire.
Very interesting. Numbers are definitely overstated, but the concept is worthy of a closer look. Starting up one of these networks would make for a great university/college project.
The best way for local newspapers to survive is to work on various business models for helping small businesses to connect with local consumers on a one to one basis which we are working on http://communitywebsites.com and http://dailydig.com. We are looking for local newspaper and other partners to be community managers to license the platform and build a sustainable local business using news, photos, reviews and other content.
We at http://www.Hometowntimes.com find this perspective quite interesting. We already have a successful franchise business model/platform with local “stakeholder” publisher/editors that are poised to be operational in 524 cities across the US – most at the hyper local level <100K, finding its audience, readership, and delivering real local content of value from local editors/publishers and original content sources. We are capable of ramping up our services to far more local communities in virtually no time at all. See a sample franchise, successful since 2003 at http://www.cumminghome.com
Cumminghome has local content and something of an ad base, but the two near me – baltimore and Washington County, Md. – look like pages of syndicated advertorials. Not quite a ringing endorsement of the business model. Anyone committed enough to local journalism could probably do what Cumminghome has done without the franchise fees.
The sites you reference, along with 500+ other “shell” sites are our template which await the local stakeholder (franchisee) to deliver the localized original content. As a national company, Hometowntimes.com delivers national advertising, and a completely managed system supporting the delivery and maintenance, development of proprietary technologies and affiliated relationships that benefit our local market publishers — all of which are delivered well under the costs that an individual blogger or web developer would incur setting up and managing such a proven deliverable. But, I’ll be the first to say we’re not rocket scientists here, and others can certainly do what we’re doing. We just believe we’ve developed a proven, supported, and replicable model that works and creates a great environment for financial and professional success. We’ve proven that.
A few points:
The project assumes that the daily news paper (in a city far larger than Tulsa) has gone away. So, the online advertising business that currently goes to that paper moves to a new online-only entities. That’s the context for our numbers. Perhaps they’re still overly optimistic. That’s why we’ve posted the spreadsheets online. We’re testing those assumpitons and asking you to share your changes with us.
Gawker and Gothamist seem to be doing pretty well right now. How would Gothamist be doing if the local paper in one of their towns went under? I’m guessing the answer is “better,” even if it means more competition.
Matt
You might like the New York Post? One of their towns? They’re in MANHATTAN….
Jeff Jarvis is a loon. He should stick to what he knows: writing fluff for TV guide.
Gordon Crovitz was way better. Made a lot more sens. Jarvis seems like a nutcase…
here’s the “e”
the numbers are certainly worth questioning, but wtf does marissa meyer know about journalism markets?
I think he is spot on and my team and I will try to see if we can incorprate that concept to our website. To those who don’t see a way for it to work, they need to try to use their imagination.
Our website is workmytown.com and it is still in the development phase. Our website is a university/college project, so we can only estimate it’s impact and direction when it is in broader use.
This man has some insights, although I first thought this might have been boring. I was wrong. It needs some more real-world critical thinking and the right platform to make it work (one that can attract huge numbers).
I worked for a local magazine on their website and you would be surprised how much uninformed small business owners will spend on local advertising. Add a serious business directory to the local news sites and you will have your revenue.
The key to hyperlocal journalism is being local to begin with. Local reporters, local columnists, local management, local sales people – - these elements are all necessary to create a successful hyperlocal vehicle. Having huge out-of-state corporations trying to do hyperlocal journalism, as they are doing here in New Jersey, will only have limited success.
Here, at The Alternative Press (http://www.thea...nativepress.com), New Jersey’s all-online hyperlocal daily newspaper serving the residents of Berkeley Heights, Chatham Borough, Chatham Township, Livingston, Madison, Millburn/Short Hills, New Providence, Summit, and Westfield, all of our reporters, columnists, management and sales executives are local. 100% live in New Jersey and nearly 90% live in the ten towns we currently cover. We know our towns and are successful because we not only live here, dine here and work here, but have lived here for many, many years, if not our whole lives.
Being hyperlocal is about more than calling yourself hyperlocal – - it’s about being hyperlocal to your core and serving your local community 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.
Mr. Shapiro has hit on one of the keys: lots of advertising is sold based on relationships, not just cpm or reach. You have to go to the chamber meetings. You have to care because it shows.
I’d like to see hyperlocal blogs start up, it would change the face of neighbourhoods. People might start getting friendly face to face. On the other hand net flamewars are not as safe if your in punching (or garbage) distance of the guy your flaming. Hyperlocal blog needs a technical fix to rss/atom, a offical geodata (location) protocol for the items. They also need to be somehow more anonymous than ordinary blogs in order to not to tip of burgerly etc.
The internet wants to kill jobs? Is that true? Is employment meant to serve as the structure of socio-economic existence? We fought the Civil War in a move away from enslavement and towards what we now know as employment. Why? Was it so you could have more freedom, or so that the Industrial complex could have more profits? A plantation with 1000 slaves was a more powerful economic entity once it was disassembled into 1001 independent parts. So now the job is under attack. Remember Napster? That was an attack, not on the musician, but on the music label employee. News organizations, an attack on free press and democracy? Nope, just your jobs. The internet will be owned universally, and time will show you how, because if one thing is true it is that the cloud is fickle and will never Agree for the sake of Agreement. Do not program the cloud, program your life. There is one state more powerful than freedom in a socio-economic universe. What do you own?
60% “market penetration” not realistic? Maybe you’re right, it is too quick. But the potential is there. Please, have a look at those UV numbers from the Audit Bureau of Circulation: http://www.bost...online_figures/
Then, download the population spreadsheet from the Census Bureau (http://www.cens...008-annual.html) and do the math. You’ll see that local sites, around the same market size, have a market penetration over 60%. The traffic being not only local.
Erick, I don’t know how old you are, or where you live, but I think you need to reconsider whatever assumptions underly your conclusion that not that many people want to read about what is going on in their neighborhoods.
Personally, neither my wife, nor I have given much attention to either of our local daylies, or their web editions since we moved to this city 18 years ago, but we now regularly check in on a blog someone started to cover our neighborhood, and another that covers a larger and somewhat denser neighborhood nearby. Our friends seem to be doing the same, and someone we met who had just moved to the area had been checking a number of them as they tried to figure out where to look for a house to buy.
The fact that a vacant storefront is going to be home to a new ramen restaurant or the news that authorities suspect arson in a series of nearby house fires matter at least as much as whether a google logo might not play well in Palestine, some URL shortner did or didn’t shut down, or whether someone I went to kindergarden with friended me on Facebook.
As always, I invite anybody who is interested in seeing a local news site that is finding actual success in terms of audience and revenue (no spreadsheet projections, actual real life data), I invite you by my site, TheBatavian.com.
Maybe his numbers are off, but the idea isn’t off by that much. My question would be would papers like the New York Times do this if they could achieve this type of penetration in 5 years or 7?
Also keep in mind that if a paper like the New York Times did do this, maybe they could achieve numbers that are close to what he is stating.
Honestly I think the papers are losing money is because they don’t let their internet sites be what they should be and that is a information base or knowledge base for people to find out more or do research. It should be the place where the story continues but usually its just the same story.
It also doesn’t help that many papers (and the media in general) seem to take sides on news instead of just reporting and providing us with valuable information.
They need to start testing some models because the one they currently have doesn’t work. Maybe they would do better to helP Jarvis with the numbers than just saying that they are wrong.
The salient, inescapable facts are:
If the News is interesting, people will read it. If it is banal and irrelevant, they won’t.
When money is tight, no-one wants to pay for anything they don’t have to and there is plenty of free `News’ out there.
You could have more money than Warren Buffet if spreadsheets always told the future accurately; sadly you don’t have Buffet’s money because speadsheets only tell you what you put into them (GIGO principle!)
There’s no easy answer to making a mint in the News Game – even Murdoch’s losing money at present.
However you cut up, mash, or reorganise the Media, however many new `business models’ you come up with, the foregoing facts will always be the same and the market will always dictate what it will or won’t pay for.
The only `secret’ worth knowing is that to get paid to provide News, you have to provide what the market wants, not what your spreadsheeting program says it wants!
To their credit Jeff/CUNY have collected real data from real sites (mine included) so Jeff isn’t operating in fantasyland as some suggest. The data he shares confirm that many of us (Batavian, Baristanet, http://www.sunvalleyonline.com, http://www.NewWest.net, etc.) know. The figures he shares are conservative for the display ad revenue which is often our sole revenue source today. If/when we add things like mobile ads, that will help the picture.
The data also indicates that the vast majority of sites are making a small fraction of the aforementioned sites (e.g., $10k vs. $100-400k for sites like mine). Why the disparity? My POV is that it is due to most of those sites being run by journalists who were sheltered from the business side of the house. With the right guidance, they will be able to figure it out.
Personally, I’m not a fan of the cookie-cutter site model. We need more experimentation at this stage and the cookie-cutter franchise sort of sites would inhibit that. Let 1000 flowers bloom and we’ll have pockets of success that then can get replicated. We’ve already seen sites like citysearch’s cookie cutter sites that don’t capture the passion of their local communities in the way truly local sites can. If, as Jarvis suggests, those truly local sites can share some back office stuff, that is the ticket in my view. [Full disclosure: I'm working on a venture doing that sort of thing.]
I agree the numbers are way off, but the idea is catching on and is being worked on by many different sites. We have had great success in the last couple of months (launched June 1st) with hyper-local news aggregation plus user generated content.
We have been working on the site for a little over a year. The thing I find the most interesting is the lack of interest we get when we look for community members to post news, events and discussions. I think this type of model will work, but it’s going to take quite some time before many of them are breaking even, let alone profitable, if they depend on community member generated content.
@Jodi. Please, be specific. What numbers are off? FYI, many of those numbers ARE REAL NUMBERS IN LOCAL MARKETS.
This model is very very close to what we are doing in Portland,OR and it is working
Whoops sorry about that its @theportlander
Starting a hyperlocal news operation is not an easy thing.
And it’s certainly compounded when Twitter suspends your accounts for ’suspicious activity’ because you’ve had the temerity to load a number of them in a single day.
When you submit support requests to them over and over and they constantly mark it ‘resolved’ without ever emailing you or indicating how matter has been resolved or what the issue was to begin with, your left with clients who seethe whenever you mention Twitter and a lack of distribution (even though you’ve been generating LOTS of content for Twitter from your other hyperlocal news sites.)
And YOUR content is what Twitter’ s leveraging so it can monetize itself.
It’s a multilayered deal.
You can’t provide the customer service you want to your neighborhoods when Twitter doesn’t seem to know how to tweet you, email you, chat with you, or communicate.
So I guess that’s the news……..
Unless of course there’s a hidden agenda, such as Twitter wanting to play in that field or banking usernames they may want in future…
I like the idea but it doesn’t appeal to target audiences like retirees. Who else watches the news for weather? But something has to change and soon.
The local evening news is killing the television industry–it’s abominable and just drains revenue. My station was recently purchased by the evil Journal Megalopolis lord of all it places its’ greasy hands on Corporation and they were amazed that our station made a ton of money one month while their flagship station lost a ton. Why? We didn’t have news.
What was one of the first things they did after taking over? They put news on my station.
I can’t feel any loyalty to a company that goddamn dumb.