“You know the beautiful thing: June 29, 2009, is the two- year anniversary of the first shipment of the iPhone,” Elevation Partners (which owns a huge portion of Palm) co-founder Roger McNamee told Bloomberg in March. “Not one of those people will still be using an iPhone a month later.”
We’re 5 days away from that milestone. Anyone want to take that bet still?
It’s been 18 days since the launch of the Palm Pre, and the device has already passed an important milestone: 1 million app downloads, according to mobile analytics firm Medialets. That’s impressive for a store with only 30 or so applications. While Apple surpassed 10 million downloads in its first weekend following the App Store launch in 2007, it had over 500 applications at launch, and already had a few million devices (the original iPhone) with which people could download from.
The big problem for Palm is that is set itself up to be compared to the iPhone with comments like the one above and its feature set. And now it has a huge mountain to climb to get anywhere near it. While the Pre may have seen a million app downloads after 18 days, Apple’s newest device, the iPhone 3GS, sold a million hardware units in just three days after its launch last week. Analysts estimate Pre sales to be about 150,000 so far. All told, there are well over 20 million iPhones now out there (probably closer to 25 million), and when you throw in iPod touches (which also access the App Store), there are over 40 million units.
And Palm isn’t making things any easier on itself. During this critical time after launch where new apps are vital, there are only 30 because the webOS SDK still isn’t open to all developers. Palm recently gave an update saying that developers should by the “end of this summer”, but even when they get it, it will likely be another few months before a wide range of apps start coming out. That means it will be the Fall or Winter before there are a ton of apps for the Pre — and that’s assuming developers jump on board.
Meanwhile, all indications are that Apple’s new iPhone 3.0 SDK is kicking app development into an even higher level on that platform. The App Store is currently backlogged with app approvals, and just about every developer I’ve talked to, has something in the pipeline very shortly.
Oh yeah, and Apple just launched a version of the iPhone that is $99, which everyone seems to be forgetting. The sales numbers on that should be interesting.
That’s not to say Palm cannot be successful with the Pre and more specifically, its webOS, it can. It’s a great device, and a great platform. And the mobile arena, and specifically smartphones, are exploding in popularity right now. There is certainly more than enough room for a number of devices and a range of platforms. But Palm still has some very serious question marks on the business side of things, and they’re basically betting the farm on the Pre. It has another webOS device that may or may not come in the next few months, but even if it does, if the apps aren’t there, it could be facing a less than stellar entrance. And that’s the kind of performance Palm needs right now, stellar.
On the other hand, McNamee’s comment might technically be true. All those people who bought the original iPhone may not be using one a month from now — they might be using the iPhone 3GS, instead. Let’s revisit this on July 29, shall we?
[photo: flickr/kowitz]
Hi MG,
The Apps market is very competitive and lucrative. I wish I could get into that market.
It will be interesting to see who gets more downloads in the end – Palm Pre or iPhone?
Thanks for a great post.
Mani Raj
Havoc Marketing
So you just keep refreshing for a new post and slap it with your ugly spam? Or did you write a script for it?
Hey, uncool! The readers of TechCrunch are not idiots. I’ve noticed you’ve been leaving formal, meaningless comments on most of the blog posts.
You don’t actually have anything to say. Your just trying to get people to come to your site because you envy TechCrunch’s popularity.
Here’s a tip: if that is truly what you want, then at least leave meaningful, normal comments.
Thanks, have a nice day!
You’re not marketing. You’re just causing havoc.
i guess his site is living up to its name.
Without question the iPhone is the best smart phone on the market. I made the switch from a Palam to the iPhone and I am never looking back.
The great thing about the iPhone is that nonprofits are starting to build apps for fundraising.
Can we stop making these comparisons? The iPhone 3GS is available in more countries on more carriers whereas the Pre is only available on Sprint. This marks the 2 year anniversary on the iPhone so obviously you are going to a have a following and the potential to sell more devices than a device on its initial launch.
Yes the iPhone and Pre compete against each other but quoting these numbers does nothing for me. You’re not comparing apples to apples.
read the post again, i think i address all of that.
i thought the appstore for iphone opened up in july of 2008 you say 2007. in 2007 the first iphone was released but the appstore was part of 2.0 if i remember correctly. so it hasnt been a year yet.
MG: My only concern with your article is that you don’t mention the Pre is still sold out. The Pre didn’t throw out a million units at launch. The Pre threw out 50,000 units and sold out. Then another 50,000 with another sell-out. And I believe another 50,000 now with another sell-out.
Here’s why I think Palm will be fine: The guy who had a heavy hand in developing your beloved iPhone, was the creator of the Pre. If he can do it once, he can surely do it twice.
Ya know, I would have agreed with you…but only if the Elevation Partners co-founder hadn’t stupidly said those comments.
He’s just asking for a comparison, and MG gave him one.
I still remember when all the Nokia fanboys were bashing the iphone when it first came out, when it was being sold in the US only. They compared the gazillions phone Nokia sold all around the world to to whatever the amount was sold in the US.
@Havoc Uh.. You sound like a starving man wishing he could eat that cheeseburger sitting on the table next to him. Don’t wish, just do.
The Pre is clearly a very good device and a worthy competitor to the iPhone but they are definitely running themselves into the wall by trying to act like the Pre will obliterate the iPhone. Palm thinks they are like Mozilla taking on the junk that IE was when Firefox came out, when in fact it they are more like Chrome taking on Firefox. The Pre doesn’t have enough benefits over the iPhone to make a compelling argument to draw iPhone users away, and the iPhone already has such a huge user base it’s just silly to think they can conquer so quickly, even if the Pre were a drastically better device, which it’s not.
It will be interesting to see how the competition in the market encourages development though. If anything all this hype is good for the end user if it means better devices and more options down the road.
Palm pre was dead before it even got to the starting gate. The fact that there is still no SDK is going to seal its fate. End of summer is far too late.
Sure, it took a while before the iPhone had an SDK but they still sold more phones at that time then the Pre did. The best Palm option at that point was the Treo, which was a total trash product. I am still kicking my self in the ass for spending what I did on the 700p.
Every day Palm delays this, is a day closer to its death. I just don’t see how the Pre could possibly compete against the iPhone.
I just think back and laugh at the comments the CEO (I think) of Palm said a day or 2 before the iPhone was released. It was something to the effect of, We have been making phones way longer then Apple has. There is no way a new company to the market would ever be able to release something better then we have.
Yes, the Pre is doomed. Doomed I tell you. Why even compete? The iPhone is much too awesome and Apple will always reign the world.
Hook me up with the next post that favors Apple over anything else.
Loving it MG, keep up the goodness.
I went and bought the iPhone that launched on June 29th 2007 right after it launched, and no, I am not using it anymore. I now have an iPhone 3G S.
Of course no one would use the first iPhone a month after it’s 2 year anniversary; AT&T contracts last 2 years, so why would someone want to keep their old phone when they could get the new one?!
fanboy post. ignored after the title.
.. but still took the time to post an idiotic comment.
of course. getting this shit off techcrunch so that only intelligent articles remain is a worthy cause.
the app store launched 2008, not 2007 like the text says.
And when you compare this numbers, you just cant compare palms US numbers with apples international numbers in 80 countries.
The Palm Pre ist still avaible nowhere.
C’mon!
Palm has had 2 YEARS to watch and learn from the industry’s best
PLUS
got a top exec straight from Apple to lead thh team
PLUS
several years of their own touchscreen smartphone experience before the iPhone. So I’m not on the bandwagon for excusing the Palm Pre as a 1.0 device for Palm. Pfff.
And even if you compare the original versions of both phones, both initially launched with only ONE carrier in ONE country; iPhone still trumps the Pre.
So leave the author alone, he just offers the facts side-by-side. Which is the reality of the market. He didn’t force Palm to open an app store with only a meager 30 apps in it – compared to Apple who was smart enough to wait until they had marquee brands and hundreds of apps to launch their store with.
before going for iphone OS 3.0 update you might want to look here
http://makemylo...software-update
so many iphone posts..so many iphone posts..I don’t know how many times I have read the same stuff over and over again.
Thats because there are over 40+ million iPhone OS users and only 200,000 WebOS users (Palm Pre).
Obviously there will be more articles on iPhone since its the larger platform.
You don’t see millions of more articles on Linux than Windows do you?
“All those people who bought the original iPhone may not be using one a month from now — they might be using the iPhone 3GS, instead.”
And all of the people who upgraded are now passing their OLD phones around to friends and family and now those people will also be owners.
No .. there is no data on old devices and what is happening to them.
They could be sold on ebay
Kept and used as a WiFi only device (SIM free) like mine
You assume a family / friend would want a 2yr @ $75+ contract. Many would ask what kind of friend you were.
I still think and have said since the beginning that the Palm Pre should position WebOS against Windows Mobile. They need more apps and did not execute well getting developers teed up early enough. No one is going to catch Apple for the rest of the decade.
How many viable personal computing platforms can developers support for the mass market? 2 (Windows and Mac OS).
How many viable gaming consoles can developers support for the mass market? 3 (Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft).
Pre is dead.
How many viable smartphone platforms can the developers support for the mass market? I can tell you the answer is not going to be 6 (RIM, Google, Microsoft, Apple, Nokia and Palm).
At least 1-2 of the platforms will be dead within 2 years due to lack of developer support.
Which platform base currently has the least developer support, has the least users on the platform, has the least financially stable company?
Palm Pre.
He’s just asking for a comparison, and MG gave him one.
The biggest thing the Apple faithful can’t comprehend is the nature of growth. (They likely failed at math or something)
150,000 users (1 one market) – 1,000,000 apps downloaded
SCALE that out as user base grows and just by compounding the base would *gasp* in two years they could have 1,0,000,000 dowloads JUST like Apple.
Pre is decent hardware and is a viable device depending on YOUR needs. I’ll give Palm one thing – WebOS will be on at&t / VZW / TMO long before iPhone ever is anywhere else.
Would appreciate seeing the actual math equation you used to arrive at your conclusion?
Can’t be good news when your competition sells more of their wait-in-line-hundred-dollar-HARDWARE in a weekend than your instant-download-one-dollar-SOFTWARE sells in 3 weekends!
Apps are absolutely changing the game. Very cool story MG.
Got a Pre last week – McNamee was DEAD on. I own the iPhone and 3G and doubt I will ever pick them up again. Before them, a blackberry 8830.
The Pre is easily one of the best consumer products ive ever used. I am a tech fanboy and simply appreciate killer products – no matter who makes them.
The apps and hardware undoubtedly “made” the iPhone, but I’d argue iTunes’ UE and billing is what has allowed them to dominate so far.
Pre absolutely KILLS the hardware, the apps are definitely on the way – big question is the app store. So far so good..
It’s ok to have bad judgment Mr. McNamee, but bad judgment coupled with arrogance is just hilarious!
Apps are very useful, I like the ones that allow me to connect to my home computer.