By 2013, annual global IP traffic will reach two-thirds of a zettabyte, according to a new forecast of IP traffic issued by Cisco today. What is a zettabyte? It is a trillion gigabytes, dummy. (I had to look that up too). And that number represents more than a fivefold increase in IP traffic from today. (See the forecast in the tables below).
What is driving this growth is video. Cisco forecasts that 90 percent of consumer IP traffic (which makes up the majority of total IP traffic) will be video in 2013. Cisco also predicts that mobile data traffic will also be overtaken by video, reaching 64 percent of total mobile IP traffic by 2013. Part of this might be wishful thinking on Cisco’s part, which needs broadband usage growth to continue apace in order to sell its networking gear. But part of it is also the fact that these numbers are based on the percentage of bits traveling over those broadband pipes, and it doesn’t take a lot of fat video files to fill those up.
Cisco is a big believer in the growth of mobile video, expecting it to grow from 33 petabytes a month in 2008 to 2,184 petabytes (or 2 exabytes) a month in 2013, which represents a 131 percent compound annual growth rate. (No wonder it bought the maker of the Flip video camera). As impressive as those numbers sound, at that point, mobile data will only make up 4 percent of total IP traffic. (Good thing Apple finally decided to get with the program and add video to its upcoming iPhone 3GS). In the chart below, you can see how big a role Cisco expects video to play in mobile data traffic. Video is the green part of the bar graphs. Standalone data (dark blue) is also expected to grow quickly.
The devices expected to drive this 131 percent annual growth in mobile data are not so much current 3G mobile handsets, but next-gen “3.5G and above” (in green), as well as laptops and other portable computers (in orange). By 2013, I bet it will be pretty hard to tell the difference between those two segments. Until then, Cisco is offering free apps for the iPhone and Blackberry that lets you check your network speed on the go.
Table 1. Global IP Traffic, 2008-2013
|
IP Traffic, 2008-2013
|
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
CAGR 2008-2013
|
|
By Type (PB per month)
|
|
Internet
|
8,140
|
11,716
|
16,701
|
23,843
|
31,839
|
40,428
|
38%
|
|
Non-Internet IP
|
2,001
|
3,031
|
4,569
|
6,647
|
9,394
|
12,975
|
45%
|
|
Mobile Data
|
33
|
85
|
207
|
482
|
1,076
|
2,184
|
131%
|
|
By Segment (PB per month)
|
|
Consumer
|
7,037
|
10,488
|
15,465
|
22,768
|
31,211
|
40,571
|
42%
|
|
Business
|
3,103
|
4,258
|
5,805
|
7,722
|
10,022
|
12,833
|
32%
|
|
Mobile
|
33
|
85
|
207
|
482
|
1,076
|
2,184
|
131%
|
|
By Geography (PB per month)
|
|
North America
|
2,578
|
3,666
|
5,309
|
7,797
|
10,498
|
13,431
|
39%
|
|
Western Europe
|
2,593
|
3,623
|
4,995
|
7,126
|
9,707
|
12,593
|
37%
|
|
Asia Pacific
|
3,661
|
5,503
|
8,089
|
11,503
|
15,877
|
21,177
|
42%
|
|
Japan
|
644
|
950
|
1,355
|
1,919
|
2,490
|
3,107
|
37%
|
|
Latin America
|
308
|
503
|
800
|
1,196
|
1,690
|
2,360
|
50%
|
|
Central Eastern Europe
|
280
|
421
|
665
|
1,021
|
1,441
|
2,042
|
49%
|
|
Middle East and Africa
|
110
|
165
|
264
|
408
|
606
|
877
|
51%
|
|
Total (PB per month)
|
|
Total IP traffic
|
10,174
|
14,832
|
21,478
|
30,972
|
42,310
|
55,587
|
40%
|
Source: Cisco VNI, 2009
Table 1. Mobile Data Traffic 2008-2013
|
IP Traffic 2006-2012
|
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
CAGR 2008-2013
|
|
By Application (TB per month)
|
|
Audio
|
3,612
|
7,996
|
16,930
|
35,486
|
74,503
|
154,988
|
112%
|
|
Video
|
13,062
|
38,681
|
107,714
|
274,820
|
650,310
|
1,390,548
|
154%
|
|
P2P
|
6,714
|
15,851
|
33,784
|
69,856
|
134,224
|
220,829
|
101%
|
|
Data
|
9,680
|
22,547
|
48,984
|
102,054
|
217,282
|
417,847
|
112%
|
|
By Device Type (TB per month)
|
|
Handsets
|
11,266
|
29,568
|
76,948
|
194,132
|
484,060
|
1,152,786
|
152%
|
|
Portables
|
18,461
|
45,487
|
105,298
|
233,706
|
493,631
|
880,797
|
117%
|
|
Residential
|
3,342
|
10,020
|
25,167
|
54,378
|
98,628
|
150,629
|
114%
|
|
By Connection Speed (TB per month)
|
|
Handsets – Less than 3G
|
1,141
|
2,265
|
4,157
|
7,129
|
12,274
|
19,083
|
76%
|
|
Handsets – 3G
|
5,600
|
11,821
|
23,551
|
46,426
|
96,777
|
198,676
|
104%
|
|
Handsets – 3.5G and Above
|
4,525
|
15,482
|
49,240
|
140,576
|
375,009
|
935,027
|
190%
|
|
Portables – 3G and Up
|
18,461
|
45,487
|
105,298
|
233,706
|
493,631
|
880,797
|
117%
|
|
Residential – 4G
|
3,342
|
10,020
|
25,167
|
54,378
|
98,628
|
150,629
|
114%
|
|
By Geography (TB per month)
|
|
North America
|
6,282
|
16,981
|
40,808
|
90,882
|
201,455
|
397,265
|
129%
|
|
Western Europe
|
9,785
|
25,572
|
65,381
|
158,325
|
341,567
|
615,477
|
129%
|
|
Asia Pacific
|
7,709
|
20,171
|
50,450
|
123,397
|
302,788
|
701,044
|
146%
|
|
Japan
|
6,000
|
13,950
|
29,910
|
58,541
|
103,466
|
166,109
|
94%
|
|
Latin America
|
725
|
1,847
|
4,715
|
12,729
|
35,727
|
95,668
|
166%
|
|
Central Eastern Europe
|
838
|
2,249
|
5,806
|
14,586
|
37,209
|
88,699
|
154%
|
|
Middle East and Africa
|
1,729
|
4,304
|
10,343
|
23,755
|
54,107
|
119,951
|
133%
|
|
Total (TB per month)
|
|
Total Mobile Data Traffic
|
33,068
|
85,075
|
207,412
|
482,216
|
1,076,319
|
2,184,212
|
131%
|
Source: Cisco, 2009
A Lot of companies are hoping video over IP is the future. Cisco is just the rails for the parade train…
Fascinating post. Good source.
This seems pretty interesting – but as someone with background in Internet Marketing, I can only wonder whether the transition towards video will mean the end of online direct response copy as we know it.
On a more relevant note – it just goes to show that the $1.65B YouTube acquisition all those years ago was worth every penny…
the youtube acquisition will be worth every penny if Google can figure out a way to make money on video. Or, more money they’ve spent and are spending. They are losing over 400 million this year alone on Youtube due to server costs, and they don’t even support livestreaming (yet)…
we learned this in the 90s, traffic in and of itself is pretty meaningless if it can’t be effectively monetized.
I had to Google Zettabyte, thought you guys were making up terms! 1 Billion Terabytes, that’s insane!
I hear ya…. Remember when net connections were 256Kbps. Personally, I think it’s funny how we, the consumer, have already become comfortable with Terabytes of space for our home PCs. I see hundreds of Terabytes not to far off. So, for global usage only being at two-thirds of a Zettabyte doesn’t really seem that big to me. AND, with the invention of the memristor, they better get working on that Net 2.0 pipe…
Finally, I think audio is still gonna play a huge part as we get closer to Analog digitally. It will become commonplace to stream 96/24 7.1 surround sound because that will accompany concert footage on the web… I can’t wait:)
Had to look up zettabyte, and now memristor “The memristor — short for memory resistor – could make it possible to develop far more energy-efficient computing systems with memories that retain information even after the power is off, so there’s no wait for the system to boot up after turning the computer on. It may even be possible to create systems with some of the pattern-matching abilities of the human brain.” Nice!
Seeing as a lot of the growth will be driven by cell phones, has anyone done a study of what a five fold increase in video traffic will do to our already straining wireless networks?
John Chambers is no dummy and knows that Cisco’s growth depends on Zettabytes for those rails to have something to roll on. Expect good return on the stock.
Yeah! this bodes well for my stocks in EZCH and NETL. Hey guys how about some coverage of those two companies and their ilke? TechCrunch Enterprise or something. There’s a lack of innovation and competition in the Telecom space mostly because it is so heavily regulated, but its one of the most important parts of the Communications Revolution
No it won’t it would be if it wasn’t illegally throttled by 90% of ISPs and could actually be used.
Having worked on Wall Street for more than 15 years, most of the projections that tech companies produce are totally pie-in-the-sky.
Tech companies hire one of the think tanks to come up with a super rosy scenarios in hopes of finding data to support the stock. Investors lap it up and reporters repeat it endlessly.
In the end, no one is held accountable for the accuracy of these projections. Inaccurate predictions fade away. (Just like lously stock picks on CNBC.)
If you mention this chart to Cisco three years from now, they’ll deny they ever published it, if it comes in lower than estimated.
I’m sure you guys will spend the rest of the afternoon fawning over these charts trying to figure out to make money off the growth of video. Good luck.
Hold on a second Mr. Wall Streeter! This is no pie- in-the-sky as these numbers are a mere extension of how video traffic has “performed” so far. Did you know that YouTube’s video traffic today is as much as how much traffic was on the entire Internet in 2000? This is not wishful thinking. You just have to follow the trends and extrapolate logically.
131% increase in mobile IP traffic by 2013? Wow. Bigger pipes mean more $$ for Cisco.
Very interesting read. Sounds about right.
Chambers is the man
I’m sure this is why Cisco Bought Flip Video in March for 590 Million
So true! Loved this article!
i dont think video over the phone is any great stepping stone to anything. people and business dont want to view there phone interactions on video. watching is weak and does not pay the bills. will be exciting to see who becomes the next googl of mobile. the company that captures 65% of mobile interaction. right now its anybodys ballgame.
You should always start each of your posts with “I don’t think” because it is ALWAYS apparent that this is the case. You have a very serious case of verbal diarrhea. Unfortunately, you spew it here instead of to your friends — of which I’m sure you have very few.
Adam, why the nasty attitude dude? I would think by reading your post, you’re the one with no friends. I mean you don’t strike me as smart. Do you believe attitude is a subsitiute for intellect? Really! Take me on instead of the poor guy who appears to be an “easy” target.
video files are 10x bigger than images, which are much bigger than text, so this headline is pretty obvious..what about in terms of total data transactions?
FYI, Cisco has created several applications (desktop & mobile) to provide a closer look at IP traffic growth around the world. Free download links are available here bit.ly/5F0zk
th free Cisco download URL is http://bit.ly/5F0zk
That’s good for our company, as we know how to monetize the video services. Video over the net is our future and the hypervideo is the future of the video. As we believe it. Actio.tv
Very good article. It got me pumped. Go mobile!!!!!!
Isn’t it called an exabyte?
Ars ran an interesting article 1.5 years ago about the “coming exaflood”. http://arstechn...ng-exaflood.ars Might be an interesting read now.
good article. I was surprised to see that Japan’s projection is so small…
any predictions on what will a broadband connection will cost in 2013 for a household? Service Providers are getting a reality check that the big pipes they’re cleverly offering are going to get filled up fast with all of the HD video floating around on the internet and are either capping bandwidth or at some point will need to raise rates to keep up w/the demand.
Well, as always cisco is exaggerating…
Cool. That is exactly, what I can use for a presentation, that I give today in Berlin. Thanks for this content for some additional slides.
Exaggeration.Cisco can go away!
El crecimiento del vídeo es impresionante y pone a prueba la capacidad de Internet.