We’ve all been closely watching the total user number for MySpace and Facebook and trying to predict the date that MySpace’s last stronghold will fall – no. 1 in U.S. social networking users. A year ago Facebook had super growth around the world, but U.S. growth was flat and we pondered the real value of all these worldwide users. At that time it would have taken Facebook more than four years to catch up to MySpace in the U.S. In January we re-ran the numbers and the trend suggested January 2010. Today that has all dramatically changed – MySpace has 70 71 million monthly U.S. uniques (Comscore, March April 2009), less than they did a year ago. Meanwhile, Facebook has surged to 61 67.5 million U.S. users and are adding a few million more every month.
In other words, the war is over. MySpace user number growth has stalled out, and historically speaking, no company of note has reversed such a trend. But MySpace may have a much bigger problem on its hands than losing the social networking war to Facebook. Their real problem is that page views are declining sharply. That means people are still visiting the site, just far less than they used to. That means less advertising impressions in a time that MySpace can hardly be expected to deal with it.
Worldwide monthly page views for MySpace have declined from 47.4 billion a year ago to 38 billion today, a 20% drop. In that same period Facebook has grown from 44 billion to 87 billion, a roughly 100% increase. And it isn’t much better when you look at just the U.S. data. They’ve seen a 16% year over year drop in page views, from 41.6 billion to 34.8 billion (Comscore, April March 2009). Facebook has grown from 13 billion to 20 billion page views per month in that period.
We have also spoken with a couple of very large application developers who confirm that activity on MySpace is decreasing at a dramatic rate, as high as “half a percent a week.”
MySpace is a battleship that’s going in the wrong direction at high speed. It’s hard to turn a battleship. Perhaps even impossible in this case.
In about a year from now MySpace will receive their last welfare payment from Google, and they’ll be on their own. They’ll have a social network that costs half a billion dollars a year to run. With page views decreasing and the Google money gone there is a strong likelihood that the News Corp. subsidiary will be unprofitable a year from now. Revenue of $800+ million last year could easily decrease to well below half a billion dollars, and likely will. No wonder new CEO Owen Van Natta isn’t committing to actually move to Los Angeles, where MySpace is headquartered.
“Worldwide monthly page views for MySpace have declined from 47.4 billion a year ago to 38 million today, a 20% drop.”
I would say a 99,9% drop…
Probably just a typo, it should have been “38 billion” but as Arrington is currently most probably sleeping, I don’t think it will be edited any time soon
I personally never liked MySpace. I use to have an test account on it and haven’t logged in to it more then 2 times.
bears dont sleep they hibernate. i guarantee you he has one eye open.
maybe myspace needs to go after the 20 million small businesses dewolf and tom talked about.
Watch Video
http://video.go...98545&hl=en
one big problem…….nobody goes to myspace for business . they need to get smart like mogulus now officially LiveStream.com and up there domain ante.
StrategicLocator.com – create whats coming
Maybe they lost their jobs, getting free Viagra , or have gotten richer and vacationing since they’re taking less tax money out of their wages! Sike!
This is good news for Facebook. I am used to associating MySpace with bad publicity, for instance, a place where sex predators hang out.
Yeah with myspace dead, we’ve finally eradicated predators on the internets.
Hmmm, but MySpace actually did quite a bit to stop things like that from happening.
I’ve found more smut and pornography and child lures on Facebook than I ever had on MySpace.
What really associates Myspace with any bad rep is the fact it is owned by the devil himself Rupert Murdoch! This Far Right nut has ruined many networks, myspace is just be added to the list.
Dude, Facebook is loaded with user generated porn.
It will continue to decline. The new management sux
Why do you say that or are you just sleepy?
Good post. At least News Corp. can say they repaid their investment on MySpace, but $580m is no longer lookin like a bargain.
I was going to say the same thing Melvin did. I assume it’s just a minor typo.
Really interesting, article, though. I have been wondering when this would finally happen. I personally haven’t used my MySpace account in years. I don’t actually remember the last time I used it. Goodbye, MySpace. So long, and thanks for all the fish.
What is so surprising?
Facebook and Twitter have been the fad of last year or two. Wait for a few years, you’ll see their decline and the rise of some third service.
Its not just fad based. Facebook is real, MySpace has always had lots of fake users cluttering up the site, which turned people off. Twitter, in its current form, I do think is a fad.
Facebook is real? There are millions of bogus accounts on facebook and even more on twitter.
Facebook was fun for the first few weeks of being on it. Who really has time to talk to old friends that much.
Twitter will be great for businesses to contact and keep customers updated but beyond that once the newness wears out it will fade away.
Sort of like business blogs, they were the rage last year and you had to have one. Most companies have not updated it in months.
Now you have it exactly right. Facebook and Twitter are fads and will fall. I think it will be much sooner than 2-3 years. If recession/depression continues a nasty course, something is going to happen in as early as 6 months, but that prediction makes me a little edgy. We are going to see billions lost in value.
If it hangs on until a variety of revenue-producing tricks have been tried and failed, that might stretch out a couple of years. Twitter is going to flop its wings on the ground like a bird smacked into a window.
I hardly even go to myspace anymore, seriously thinking about deleting it. I spend most of my time on twitter now, not even facebook. I use that to stay in touch with family.
deleted a profile about 2 years ago, haven’t regretted it since. the site is an internet hate crime against html.
You know there is a feature on MySpace where you can view the profile in “lite” mode which strips all of the html out of the profile so people like you that dont want to see the creative side of “your friends”, as ugly as it may be, does not have to.
we run one of the largest network of apps on myspace.. based on metrics we see, users are plenty active on the site.
I think myspace has been releasing slew of new features to ajaxify the site.. that might account for low page views.. maybe time on site would be a better metrics.
but stalled user growth is definitely a concern.
Facebook uses more AJAX than nearly any other site. They still have really high pages views.
Myspace is just bloated. Myspace got annoying a long time ago. Myspace is the Geocities of social networking.
based on the developers we’re talking to, which are among the largest, MySpace is declining at an alarming rate.
MySpace’s death certificate was signed by Facebook.
Over the next year Twitter will practise it’s signature ready to sign Facebook’s.
I haven’t logged into Facebook since I found Twitter. And the more Facebook attempts to copy Twitter – the stupider they look.
I don’t take Facebook seriously anymore.
I see the two as quite different. Twitter is online mass SMS/IM in essence, whereas Facebook if anything is biting away at the ankles of e-mail. I’d be interested to see stats for Hotmail since Facebook got big.
Ian Hendry
Facebook will never, ever replace email. Facebook/Myspace/etc. are too closed off and non-standards compliant w/ each other (or traditional email service providers) to ever be considered as a real alternative to email.
I hate hearing this “argument for Facebook’s usefulness”…ugh…
I never use either MS or FB so I have no dog in this fight . But my wife is on FB a lot. I’ve noticed she says “I’ll facebook so-and-so” instead of “I’ll email so-and-so” a lot more. And the response is almost immediate. FB has become IM/Email with a bunch of added features.
If I get a message on facebook, I go there immediately because it is from a friend. Not so with email.
If I keep getting annoying event invite messages this will stop being true.
Try getting every business in the world to stop using email. MS Outlook rules the world. More emails are sent in company intranets daily worldwide than the total number of messages sent on Facebook, I am confident. And I’m confident this will never change.
I am prepared to accept MySpace has a hardcore of users who’ll have to be dragged away screaming. All those who registered and were immediately put off by the assault of the senses — as I was — are now on Facebook, where it’s just easier and less painful to get things done.
As the web moves towards single sign on, though, this will all start to matter a bit less as we wonder round using all sorts of useful resources which then post back to our newsfeeds. We may all have a Facebookaccount, but we’re just as likely to use the site as a portal to a whole social web and spend most of our time elsewhere.
The challenge is monetizing that.
Ian Hendry
CEO, WeCanDo.BIZ
http://www.wecando.biz
Page views per User:
Facebook: 327
MySpace: 497
…still a way to go…
I never understood why anybody would use MySpace in the first place. That place is a zoo!
Every time I, accidentally, go to a MySpace page, I close it as fast as I can (before the background music starts playing).
The founders already cashed out and many left. I don’t think they are in trouble
Myspace has been playing catch up every since that first month Facebook had surpassed them in page views, they haven’t recovered since then. Now Twitter is on the rise which is without a doubt affecting there numbers.
Facebook is just a different type of social tool, that is driven by thousands on developers who create apps on a daily bases for the platform. Myspace is now blatantly copying Facebook’s features and functionality but it might be too little too late.
No one cares about how much fiends you have anymore (it’s all about followers now) or how cool you profile page looks not to mention the slow loading pages.
I haven’t been to myspace in about six months now.
Myspace = Web 1.0
Facebook = Web 3.0
Its not like i like kicking people when they’re down or anything, but its about time that fraud of social network began to tank. It just seems like their product has always been subpar and their is really no innovation to it, which companies from all realms realize is needed for longevity. For years people would ask me “where can i find you on myspace?” I told them when a black dude becomes president!! Uh oh
MySpace still seems like the default for the music industry sad to say. We all know how slow they are to move on, so MySpace will stick around for awhile longer. It is looking pretty pathetic now though.
That’s something that imeem will soon fix which is far more superior to Myspace as a Music Social Network.
First -of course- imeem should be able to fix their terrible Facebook application and then “dream big”.
MySpace will probably remain the no.1 choice for bands, iLike or imeem have failed to draw attention-even if they have some cool features too.
Its not like i like kicking people when they’re down or anything, but its about time that fraud of social network began to tank. It just seems like their product has always been subpar and their is really no innovation to it, which companies from all realms realize is needed for longevity. For years people would ask me “where can i find you on myspace?” I told them when a black dude becomes president!! Uh oh
Recent battleships were maneuverable enough. A better comparison is with oil tankers, or perhaps MS Office products since ‘97.
“the ten fast battleships completed during World War II … the last four ships of the Iowa class would see action in five separate conflicts over a half century—an unprecedented record. Well‐ protected, maneuverable …”
http://www.ency...attleships.html
To save the fall of MySpace, News Corp urgently needs to acquire Twitter – and incorporate it into the MySpace site.
Hahahahaha… want some crack with your heroin?
Been a while since i have used MySpace, but I don’t think the ability to customise layout etc. helps MySpace at all (and being a designer I thought I would never say this), but unreadable text against the background, videos and images of all shapes and sizes everywhere, music starts playing when you load the page an so on…
Compared to the simplicity of Twitter it just all looks a bit manic.
“MySpace, which launched in January of 2004, is the world’s leading social portal.”
Time to update Crunchbase?
i think they wrote that. we’ll block them.
Myspace bit facebook ,better
Myspace would have been better off if they stuck to music.
not really.
Can you do something else than listen to (bad quality) music on myspace and posting “thanks for the add” on other people’s wall ?
Personally, I’ve moved on. Now I’m involved in another, much more meaningful Social Network where I listen to bird sounds and post far more personal messages like “Thanks for the follow”
First friendster. Now Myspace. Will the API, Friend Connect, etc shield FB? What a game…
they could drop 50% of impressions and i doubt it’d impact bottom line … the extraction from most of their inventory would be 2/10’s of not much.
it is not like they’re anywhere near 100% sell through.
my belief is myspace can afford to bleed users – loads of them – most of them can’t be monetised … it’d be better to focus on quality not quantity and original content. let facebook have the hosting fees and the inability to make yield on these users.
myspace isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
The more they implement ajax techniques, the less page views they will have
This is gonna be an ugly upcoming fiscal year to come for MS.
I’m wondering what the hell can be done to turn things around for MySpace. The new execs must feel like they can do something since their good name is on the line.
Option 1.
Copy other sites in better and faster ways.
Option 2.
Rebuild MySpace. Ground up.
Option 3.
Break it up and sell it.
Option 4.
Reduce the focus of MySpace to core parts of the site. Scrap the rest.
Option 5.
Whore the hell out and make as much money as possible before the whole thing goes up in smoke.
What do you guys think are the options?
MySpace’s brand is completely wrecked at this point. It took them so long to improve even a bit of the interface and crack down on the issues plaguing the site (confusing/convoluted learning curve to design a profile and perverts on the site) that by the time they were doing okay (I’d say early/mid-2008) most people had move on to Facebook.
At this point, Facebook is doing no wrong for 99% of the users out there. It’s just a giant rolodex for people and has done a good job of creating a unique experience for users mostly based off looks/UI alone. I personally don’t have a FB account since I’m not a fan of social networks…but there’s no denying that FB beat MySpace at its own game. (Especially when you factor in its global appeal)
I think MS will go with option 4 before anything else. They’ve still got “new features” they’re trying to push out but so far, none of them are gaining any new users. As Scott said, the brand is wrecked. FIM is going to want to milk MySpace Music for all it’s worth. I think in the end, when MySpace is a site like Friendster (people are shocked to know it still exists) the main feature of MS will be MS Music.
The big international boost happened when facebook added foreign translations. In a couple of days, dozens of high school friends from my remote European town connected on Facebook. At first I wondered what happend, then I realised it had become available in local language.
I see FB as the Wii and MySpace as the PS2. Sure it’s declined but certain people still won’t let go.
Myspace is janky as all heck. When was the last time they updated the interface? Like, never?
Last welfare payment from Google. LMAO.
Hi all
Sorry if I missed this above, but it sure seems to me that MySpace should be a cautionary tale for Facebook. I fail to see any significant difference between Myspace users and FB users. The only difference is that FB is six months behind Myspace.
Myspace is and FB will experience a typical user that joins, is active, and then fades away once they realize that there is nothing of substance to either of these sites. TYPICAL is the important word. For both sites there will remain a group of dedicated users who continue using the site, but in the realm of “typical” I think there will be a large churn rate as people enter, give it a try and then leave. The question may be one of determining if that dedicated group is large enough to give either site anything of lasting value.
I’ve done the FB thing, as has my wife, and many of my friends. We all seem to be drifting away now that the thrill is gone and no substance remains…..imo social media certainly looks to be a fad, that has most likely peaked.
Jeff Bach
Since when does FB claim to have substance? FB gives you the tools to interact with your friends. That’s it. Substance is created by you and within your network of friends. If you have no friends and don’t participate, well…yeah, FB will have no substance in your mind.
The downfall of FB will be when they open up and become festooned with ads similar to the way MySpace is.
The biggest problem with Myspace: Users define how their pages look like
Sometime it takes me a long time to find a place to write a comment on a friend’s page on myspace because it looks so different. It’s like every profile is a completely different web site. I think that’s what they have to change.
Myspace does what it does. It’s still the place for people to get their music out and create obscene pages with too much color and too much noise. This is the internet age, everyone is always on to the next big thing.
MySpace vs. Facebook? Why?
What I find most disturbing is the bashing of a company that you need not deal with if you don’t want to. If your once favorite pants start to pinch or fade, you stick them in the back of your closet until you lose weight or washed-out is fashionable again, but you don’t spend your day complaining about how crappy your pants are.
I would hope that in this rancid economy you wouldn’t wish ill on a company that employs 1000+ people who are of the same fabric as all of you nerds.
Amen brother.
Absolutely. I’ll always be fond of MySpace. It was – and is – an era. I’d be sadder to lose MySpace than General Motors.
Wow, Myspace numbers are pretty low. I thought CitySearch would help them locally.
come on now.. basically changing the layout, and logo of citysearch to myspace.. you really thought that would help. citysearch themselves are struggling.
Facebook is good if you HAVE friends, NOT to make new friends. You don’t get to see a person’s pictures (other than the microscopic default) or interests. You don’t know their age or when the last time they logged in.
Meanwhile Myspace, with a customized layout, ability to post blogs, and select a song to be played, speak much more to the user expressing themselves.
MySpace should be buying 2-3 strategic companies asap, and focus on their core music, movie, & video entertainment verticals.
likely partner / acquisition candidates:
- ticketing
- payments
- merchandising
they better move fast.
i remember reading an article about two years ago saying the $550mil Newscorp spent on MySpace may go down as one of the best deals EVER (prob around the same time Facebook got their Microsoft $$ infusion)
my, my how times can change..
This war may be over but Facebook shouldn’t take much solace from it. The downfall of MySpace simply demonstrates how quickly things can change in this space and FB should take notice. Recent estimated FB valuations seem to indicate that their potential investors have.
Here’s the problem though. Facebooks new user agreement states that anything you post on your page becomes their property. They have the right (unless it’s already copyrighted and can be proven so) to use your pictures, words, videos etc in any way they choose.
Epic fail.
Myspace lets you post whatever to their site and you still own in.
Epic win.
I wonder why the platforms are not charging the app developers that make profit. (Like how iPhone charges 30%) … as a self developer I kinda like not having to share with the platform.
Welp, see ya later Myspace!
I look at social networking as a house at which a children’s party is being held. Myspace is the game room where the kids are playing. Facebook is upstairs where the adults are hanging out.
I disagree with the following statement:
“MySpace user number growth has stalled out, and historically speaking, no company of note has reversed such a trend.”
Friendster reversed that trend. They stalled out dramatically back in the day and now they’re doing extremely well. Granted, it’s not US traffic… but they’re still making a decent amount of money off of the Asian markets.
so are they taking away from Myspace in Asia? lol
MySpace topped out about a year ago, now their in AOL mode and probably will be in decline for years before bottoming out.
Facebook is only about a year to 18 months behind MySpace. Their planned IPO of about two years out will see them in the same sort of decline. Because of this, they’ll never achieve an IPO and will sell out to some sucker who will think they can make a go of a social network that’s well past it’s ’sell by’ date.
AOL had something myspace didn’t… Their software became spyware on people’s computer. That slowed their decline because people were forced to use their service for longer. Not the case with MySpace
Yes, the growth in UVs for FB has been impressive, 18% in the last 4 months and on the verge of passing MySpace just next month, but curiously FB’s pageviews have been largely flat, hovering around 19BN, during the same trimester. Sound like a bit of fatigue setting in among FB users too.
fatigue is better than exodus
Myspace has become like a trailer park on the web. The home pages are so over burdened w/irrelevant media apps and useless crap, your browser is quickly bogged down to non-existent response time. Not to mention the horrible hatchet job of html changes users are allowed to make to areas of their pages that should not be editable.
Facebook has stumbled along the way but the user experience remains consistently dependable. Even more significant, content is organized and easily readable/viewable w/o any loss to overall speed.
Buh-bye myspace.
There is a feature on MySpace where you can view the profile in “lite” mode which strips all of the html out of the profile so people that dont want to see the creative side( ugly html) of their friends do not have to.
I have never really “got” myspace. The pages are a mess. The site is over run with spam comments and the user experience is more than painful. Good riddance.
What happen in January 2009. There seems to be major traffic shift happening that time.
Any launch for facebook that time?