Believe who you want. Twitter may or may not be possibly in late stage discussions with Apple about an acquisition (we’re going with no, though some have said otherwise). Now how about putting some money on it?
Last month we covered a Panama-based company called BetOnline that’s doing exactly that, allowing users to bet on which company (if any) will be acquiring Twitter in 2009. Things are apparently going well for the company, because it has just opened up another round of betting, updated with a new set of intial odds. And the money is currently on Apple, which is a 2-1 favorite for gobbling up the micromessaging startup sometime this year.
The figures are based on the closing volumes of bets from the first round ‘twitter acquisition’ market, along with input from BetOnline researchers who apparently are putting a lot of faith into the Apple rumors (or they know something we don’t).
Google, which was at even money for the last round, has fallen to 5-to-2 odds in the new round. Microsoft has jumped from 10-to-1 odds to 5-to-1. And apparently the bookies believe that someone is going to buy Twitter soon, because the odds for ‘no acquisition’ have gone from 2.5-to-1 to 4-to-1.
Here’s the full list of intitial odds. Note that these will change over time, so now might be your chance to jump on this if you have any inside info.
Apple +200 – (2-to-1)
Google +250 – (5-to-2)
Microsoft +500 – ( 5-to-1)
Time-Warner +800 – (8-to-1)
Yahoo +1500 – (15-to-1)
Field +600 – (6-to-1)
No Sale +400 (4-to-1)
Betting on startup acquisitions is cool enough, but the BetOnline team is doing something even more awesome. They’re currently climbing Mount Everest, where they’re going to place the first online bet to be taken from the highest point on Earth. And they’re going to be giving away $20,000 to the charity that receives the most ‘@’ reply votes on their Twitter account before they make the top. They’re about half way there, with plans to make it to the summit in the second half of this month. Wow. And may The Force be with you guys…
I think this is case of bad history repeating itself. Remember when Ebay bought Skype?
Skype can still be a success story in the future. Don’t count it out
Skype is a great application, don’t get me wrong there. The eBay buyout was all wrong.
Apple should actually buy a search engine company. At least they have a proven business model, unlike twitter. Unfortunately, the major ones (even Google) don’t really fit with Apple’s too cool for thou factor.
Cuil, if it was any good, would have potentially fit the bill. Or perhaps Wolfram Alpha or perhaps Yauba. Or better yet, just develop one themselves.
It may make sense for apple to integrate twitter into itunes + iphone – instant song & movie ratings anyone? But they dont need to buy the company to do this.
By that logic Apple should by Summize for real time search. Oh wait…. that’s Twitter.
FIRST!
failed
LOL
Dammit.
Uh…
F**K TRENT REZNOR!!!
Can anyone say publicity stunt? Not a bad one though on climbing Mount Everest. Reminds me of the stuff Golden Palace Casino used to do.
The odds on the buyout of Twitter is not new alot of sportsbooks are giving up those odds.
Sure, it’s a publicity stunt. But it’s also one of the most physically demanding and impressive things you can do. I’m rooting for them.
You would think I could type my own personal URL properly. Guess again!
i hope it happens so we can move on to more serious matters on the next generation of social networks with the integration innovation of search engines.
GamblerLocator.com – no risk, no reward.
Does “locator.com guy” have to post on every TC story? He brings absolutely nothing to the table and his comments are less than useless.
Arrington, if this guy wants to keep spamming your comments, why not charge him an advertising fee. He’s just hurting our brains and wasting our time.
This would be fantastic. Apple would buy Twitter, then this stupid twit fad would fade away…and we wouldn’t have to keep reading all this Twitter crap on TechCrunch!
My money’s on News International. Myspace/Twitter mash up anyone?
I never thought that I would link spam here on TC, but here goes. I wrote a whole post on why this rumor is horseradish. Read if you feel inclined: http://digg.com/d1qMr6. I simply cannot think that this will happen, and will probably jump platforms if it does.
are they taking bets on the over/under sale prices?
this is dumber than owl shit
The acquisition makes no sense for Apple. Twitter offers them nothing but debt.
How will buying Twitter help Apple ship more hardware?
Can’t see the point.
Cheers
N
my money or fake money is on aol. they are the only ones i think dumb enough to spend a billion for twitter.
Buying a company for their debt can be a good thing, depending on your local accounting laws and regulations.
But that still wouldn’t help them shift more kit.
N
Not if you buy the debt at a premium which is what Apple would be doing if they paid anywhere near the ludicrous sums being reported. Without Twitter having a proven (or any) revenue stream in place, a buyout doesn’t make any sense at those levels.
Whatever. Twitter is the most useless thing on earth.
Jay Leno was right when he compaired it to morris code.
Twitter = Twits
no one is buying Twitter for a billion dollars until there is proof that it can be monetized. Until then they will twist in the wind but continue to benefit from “hack” posts like this.
Apple would be logical as they sell on hype and design, and twitter pretty much represents the mother of all hypes right now.
$700 Mil+ hm, hey I’m not saying its a bad idea.
Daniel
https://spideroak.com – Online Backup & Sync
in our facebook virtual bet, facebook is the most probable buyer, although most people think there will be no buyout: http://apps.fac...=305&nolg=1
they aren’t even at the top of the mountain
i’m hedging my bets here…
My money is on No Sale. Twitter doesn’t sound like it’s for sale at this point.
Damnit, where is that chair I just threw? I need to throw it again!
I love my new MacBook Pro… but if they buy twitter i will give it away for free.
I love my new MacBook Pro… but if they buy twitter i will give it away for free.
If apple buys twitter, all they need to do is brand the site with apple ads – i.e. new Itunes releases.
That has to be worth it alone. It has the same scale of audience as Facebook – and look at the billions it’s worth.
think all the people who visit the site? That much advertising has to be worth 700$ mil.
Predict if Apple will buy Twitter: http://www.pred...y-for-twitter-2
yes, this is someone’s campaign to pump apple stock, or twitter stock, or both… imho an idiotic claim because wtf would apple (the company who never acquires *anybody* with such public recognition) be doing with twitter? how would it add any value to apple? this is just bad journalism.
wasn’t the same thing said before microsoft sunk all that money into Facebook?
yet they did anyways?
I think when you have billions and billions of money, logic goes out the window.
As much as the rumor mill is pushing the Twitter acquisition story, it flies in the face of common sense.
http://pacificg...ot-twitter.html
Apple is NOT eBay.
It’s not in the cards:
http://www.love...amp;name2=Apple