Forget the pundits. If you want to know the real odds of something happening or not, follow the money. And at least one online bookie is saying that it’s more than 50% likely that someone will acquire Twitter this year.
Panama based BetOnline is letting people place bets on whether or not Twitter is acquired in 2009. They’re paying even money on a Google acquisition, the most likely suitor. Facebook pays 5 to 1, Microsoft pays 10 to 1 and Yahoo pays 20 to 1. If anyone else buys them it pays 5 to 1. Think they’re staying independent? You’ll get $2.5 for every dollar you bet if you’re right.
These odds will change over time as bets are placed, so if you have inside information or just have a gut feeling you’re willing to bet on, get your wallet out now. And I guess if the Twitter guys decide not to sell, they can make a nice bit of cash on the side by placing the appropriate bets.
Company spokesperson TJ Kendrick says he expects “brisk wagering on their new Twitter acquisition prop.”
Ha! I simply expect whoever buys it, if it isn’t Google, to quickly run it into the ground.
With all the problems Twitter has had, and their cash drain, I do believe that “running it into the ground” would be an upward tick.
Very likely that they’ll be gobbled up. All the VCs are going to want a nice exit. The hockey stick is pointing up right now and there’s tons of “potential”.
I would hope that it doesn’t get run into the ground. It is such as simple concept it would be hard to mess it up.
Google’s not the only horse in the race, you give them TOO much credit and the other players not enough. There’s at least one darkhorse that should be running.
I think Google will buy it. I bet $0.10
http://www.smartbloggerz.com
Love it. Surprised Microsoft has better odds than Yahoo though.
My bets with Google, but I have a feeling they will stay independent for 2009. They’re doing what they love, why sell? Seems to be the Kevin Rose model at Digg too.
How about you?
I hope dictionary.com buys them, the twout, tweeps and tweets will all be actual words.
What’s up, twitches!!
Perfect. Now Twitter doesn’t need to raise any more funding. They can just take their existing capital, bet it on not being acquired, then not accept any offers. Problem solved.
lol smart
Is there a way to wager that they get acquired, but the acquisition is called deeply into question as the big company can’t figure out how to monetize them anyway, and one day tries to spin them back out?
Or instead bet on them getting acquired and the bigger entity utterly screws the pooch post-acquisition?
Also, would be great to have an over/under on how long the founders stick around post-acquisition (my pick would be 366 days)…
Only in America!
…and Panama
You had me at “Panama based.”
I’m for Google taking on Twitter. You Tube has all the content, Twitter is great for pushing content/urls – it’s a match made in cyberheaven.
pretty logical gambling now. and according to michael its a good idea to make cash for Twitter. just need a little redesign to place these ads. i am gonna start Twitter Casino
i would bet Yahoo doesn’t’ but should acquire Twitter.. Enhancing their proposition for Microsoft
Or, they can try to grow a pair, and make it as a company.
No reason not to.
Moreover, if anyone but Google buys it, they will attempt to leverage the userbase and integrate it into their own failing social offers (YHOO/MSFT), pretty much killing it in the process.
I was sceptical about twitter in the past but I love them now, If twitter can build a semantic ad model like hutch, to embedd within their application I think they could keep the business without selling it.
Not for sale.
Why would anyone acquire Twitter — Orkut failed Google, Bebo failed AOL. Don’t see user base proportional to revenue generation. Don’t see Twitter can add value — it’s less powerful than community platforms. It is less informative than news tickers. It’s just for closed user group chit-chat and fans to keep getting feed.
If anyone buys Twitter, it would be interesting how they convert it to a cash-cow? Or do they fail?
- Nishant
If you dont want to bet with real money in times of recession, take this virtual bet on facebook: http://apps.fac...ha/frominv/305/
Ok… now I am done with TwitterCrunch now …
no more TechCrunch for me at least….
Not coming back … bye all … and bye bye Michael Arrington….
Twitter should instead merge with Friendster, Geocities, Broadcast.com and Facebook. Lots and lots of users and tiny revenue on a proportional basis.
I bet not! Twitter will not be acquired, instead, Twitter will acquire other small players. One of my sources say that Twitter is having a closer look at http://www.boilingpage.com, the best real-time webpage search engine based on how popular they are in Twitter. It’s my favorite too.
We’ve launched a similar service at http://circlid.com. In addition to person-to-person networking, it offers group-to-group networking, social storage, microblogging, email, blogging, social boomkmarks, etc.
“Forget the pundits” — you mean, “Ignore everything I’m about to say…”
I did.
love it…
Don’t be surprise if it got acquire by a traditional news network, I will go for CNN….means 5/1 (anyone else).
What is it with TechCrunch and twitter? Every other article is “twitter this” and “twitter that”. This used to be a far more interesting/diverse and useful site. Now it is just plain boring.
Sorry, but I don’t use twitter, and never will. There is far more life than “twitter” and the ADHD and useless waste of bandwidth that it helps promote.
Let’s not forget that the root of “twitter” isn’t “tweet”, it’s “twit”. Quite appropriate, don’t you think?
All you stupid Twitter haters just don’t get it. Contrary to your common idiotic opinions that “Twitter is a waste of bandwidth” “nobody cares if you are drinking coffee” the service is bar none the most effective way to drive TRAFFIC, generate leads, create fantastic networking events etc. Get off your high-horse and log out of your stupid ass Facebook account for a few minutes and think beyond the borders of your limited mind and understand the positives Twitter provides. Don’t want to use the damn service? Good for you, shut your damn mouth and tune the fuck out.
Scobleizer already bet on it, IIRC.
Twitter has become such a large community with a reach that is non-stop. The search function is a major value for users and owners. I think the price paid for Twitter will be huge.-
I hope it could get some innovation back in Twitter (or around it). I only see FF and Facebook doing this. Of course I respect them for being able to grow such a user base and adoption by a large number of people already
I’d rather make a bet on if the Crunchpad will be retailed at Walmart.
Bruce: yeah, I did. Hah!
Louis Gray predicted it as well
FriendFeed will be acquired too
Prediction: Arrington, Scoble, and Gray have formed a VC group that already signed an agreement to buy Twitter in Q3 2009!
I’m a little nervous about a potential FF acquisition. Could that benefit the userbase in any way?
yeah you could see advertising in your real-time feed!
Dan: nope, that’s not where the money is. I covered where the money is in this podcast yesterday with @Sherylbreuker : http://bit.ly/ADYhk
The smart money is on a Facebook acquisition. It’s a match made in business heaven and will further drive Facebook into the universal social platform.
John
http://twitter.com/JohnFMoore
The company that finds a way to make money with Twitter will acquire it.
Right now it falls under the same category as Facebook, only there’s no revenue model in place. It’s fun to have and use, but will people pay to use it? Will twitter users be cool with jamming random ads in their twitter streams?
I think the problem here is when to be acquired. Nut, personally I like Yahoo or Microsoft to acquire Twitter rather than Google to balance the internet system
yeah, me too: I’d rather make a bet on if the Crunchpad will be retailed at Walmart …
..as another post mentioned, investors would be wise to sell Twitter asap while the hockey stick growth is still trending upward. otherwise, they risk missing the window of opportunity that is a lucrative exit should the economy head further southward.
And we all know by now how inept the management team is, despite millions in funding. One has only to witness the ass-clown performance of CEO at Ted and the co-founder recently on Colbert Report showing how far his head’s up his ass..
Enjoyed your thoughts on the interview, thanks for the link!
Originally Twitter was meant to be used on a mobile. If a world leading operator like Vodaphone, T-Mobile, O2 or Orange would buy it, they could return to the original idea and make money on the SMS messages send.
Twitter is getting acquired tomorrow US time. You heard it here first.
Well if they (google) buy Twitter, I wish them well. I would hope they could improve a very good concept… a “good to great” move. The only thing that i see that would run twitter into the ground would be greed.
There’s other sites offering different odds:
http://adjix.com/2wh8