Year end Comscore numbers for the U.S. audience are out. The first thing we checked? How the major social networks are doing.
Facebook, which became the largest worldwide social network in mid 2008, is still playing catch up to MySpace in the U.S. They have 54.5 million monthly unique visitors, says Comscore, compared to nearly 76 million for MySpace. But Facebook’s growth rate in the U.S. averaged 3.8% per month over the last twelve months. MySpace’s U.S. growth rate is 0.8% per month. That’s nothing to be ashamed of, but unless things change a lot, Facebook will overtake MySpace to become the largest social network in the U.S. in…2010.
At current growth rates Facebook will overtake MySpace in January 2010, a year from now. That is the month Facebook will reach 86 million U.S. users, compared to MySpace’s 84 million in January. Will this prediction be correct? Probably not, but it’s the best guess given today’s data.
It may actually take longer. Facebook’s growth rate had been increasing as the year wore on but dipped in December. As they get closer to MySpace it may become ever harder to catch up.
Also, even though Facebook is more than 2/3 the size of MySpace in the U.S. today, some key engagement metrics show more activity per user at MySpace. MySpace has almost two times the total time spent (17.5 billion minutes v. 9.3 billion minutes). MySpace generated 40 billion page views in December to Facebook’s 18 billion.
More data for other social networks is in the chart. Ning, starting from a smaller base, leads in overall growth rate, at 388% for the year and 14.1% monthly. Classmates is also growing quickly in the U.S. and had 16.6 million monthly unique visitors in December.
Yes, I really think Facebook will emerge over Myspace. 99% of everyone I know who is young uses Facebook, but not Myspace. The reason for this is that as kids have increasingly gotten older they have moved from Myspace to Facebook.
Facebook has “nice ui and robust from spam” private messaging, which other competing social networks cant see from outside. That i feel is the main upperhand facebook has got, and remains undercurrent.
The only thing Facebook truly lacks, is quality caring customer service. I know that from personal experience, they are cold and like to answer emails with template responses. Which makes sense due to the vast size of the Social Network, but still, a little personality and caring goes a long way.
I don’t know what you are talking about. I have had two interactions with Facebook over the last 2 weeks. One was to request a feature and the other was to complain about an issue I am having with the service. Both messages I sent got personal (not template) e-mails from a customer service rep in a fairly timely fashion. I responded and had a back and forth with them and they were very nice and responsive. So I’m really not sure what you are talking about.
Well face book will beat myspace one day. Maybe in 2009. I hope so.
definitely Facebook will emerge as the champion, with today’s global village, student exchange programs and many more, facebook appears to be the only platform that appeals the Europeans, Americans and Asians.
Social Networking: Will Facebook Overtake MySpace In The U.S. In 2009?
YES! Easy.
Myspace is a dead duck.
I see how you reach the 86 million users for Facebook in Jan/2010, from 54.5 million, using 3.8% monthly growth rate.
The math:
54.5 million *(1+3.8%)^12=85.26 million (to be exact)
But if you do this:
54.5 million*(1+3.8%)^48=326.49 million
In other words, 4 years from now, if the 3.8% monthly growth rate continues, Facebook will likely have the entire population of the U. S. A., including infants and folks at nursing homes, as their members.
(I know, I’m being a smart-aleck)
Buddy, compound annually instead of monthly. Strong arithmetics though..
page views are an increasingly meaningless statistic due to widespread use of AJAX
Not to advertisers they aren’t.
They will both fade (level off really) and be over- taken by something else. I guess that this will happen over about the next four years.
The social networking entity that will overtake them may or may not yet be a player.
The newcomer will emphasize some sort of content that will keep ‘em coming back (Imeem calls it “social media”) rather than mere interactivity.
As Corey Doctorow has pointed out, closed social networks without renewing content begin to deflate just as they begin to reach saturation — that is the moment you realize that there are a whole lot of people on board who want to be your friend whom you would really do anything to avoid in the real world and you begin to lose interest in the whole thing.
What social network can devise parameters to check that syndrome will be the one that succeeds in the long run and Facebook is not showing any such attributes. On the contary, it islooking more and more like the MySpace meat market each day.
I’m sure it will be.
MySpace is lucky to have many music bands on its website but some of MySpace page like an old site.
And there is more spam on MySpace but Facebook will stay unattacked ?
The emphasis should be on worldwide numbers {seesmic_video:{”url_thumbnail”:{”value”:”http://t.seesmic.com/thumbnail/uHmWHsjTrQ_th1.jpg”}”title”:{”value”:”The emphasis should be on worldwide numbers ”}”videoUri”:{”value”:”http://www.seesmic.com/video/jCguPrLJ92″}}}
Perhaps you have not heard of Techcrunch UK?
Advertising remains the monetization mechanism for social networks and ad spending is highly disproportional in favor of the US, and that is why focusing on US numbers is informative.
This is not personal, it is business.
How about we pose this question – who will become profitable / reach targets in 2009? MySpace, Twitter, facebook, or You Tube?
This blog is to assume both sites stop innovation, and things just carry on as they are. ; )
Probably unless MySpace can pull something out of the hat. Facebook overtook MySpace on average session time in July 2008, see http://grapher....avgStay_460.png
Neilson Online also reports US visitors spending more time on Facebook from November 2008.
I have friends on both social networks so I cannot really decide for one or the other. I’d love to keep the best of both: MySpace Music and Facebook Connect.
They said they already did in December by unique visitors:
http://www.insi...-in-us-uniques/
Facebook v MySpace? Both have their own “gut level” appeal, over and above their actual coded architecture.
Value is perception but what’s really interesting is that this contest provides a unique opportunity to study the current psychology behind affinity and branding. They are, when you get right down to it, the very essence of “social vehicles”.
You forgot the word “Internet” in your “social vechicles”. I would think the ‘very essence’ of social vehicles is our ability to speak, but even more essential – our instinctual need to collaborate to help increase the chances of survival.
It wouldn’t be really surprising if Facebook overtakes MySpace in the coming few years.
Both are strong enough to compete against each other and the battle will only get more interesting with the time. I feel innovation and creativity will be the key to switch users, not compromising on the quality of service.
ConnectU
http://www.facepink.com – the free facebook sex social netwok
I prefer facebook’s layout rather than myspace. Also facebook is easier to use. My 2 cent.
I agree, and i think that yeah, Facebook is going to overtake Myspace in the US, soon.
i think they should both die. it’s like arguing the merits of compuserv vs aol, when the internet was about to subsume both.
i think they should both die. it’s like arguing the merits of compuserv vs aol, when the internet was about to subsume both.
I’m really sure, Facebook will overtake and command the social network, only the old people use myspace.
um, not to point out the irony, but speaking of spam…
I have to disagree with you there. I know a LOT of older people who are into Facebook. With that said, I feel that MySpace is better for bands than Facebook is. But in the long run, for everyday people, Facebook will win
this is very interesting !
This is assuming that Facebook does not run out of money by then. Frankly, if I were MySpace, I would not give a shit because I am making close to $1B on my users, while Facebook is burning through their cash.
The mystery to me on the list is Classmates.com. Yeah, I visit the site, but only to see if I can figure out how to get them to stop emailing me with their bogus alerts. Does anyone really use the site???
I’m not sure that unique visitors tell the whole story when you’re comparing MySpace to Facebook. MySpace probably has a lot of “just looking” traffic, whereas I imagine that almost all Facebook visitors are registered users since there’s really nothing to see unless you’re logged in.
I guess I’m assuming that not much Facebook traffic comes from public out-of-network video and photo sharing. I’m curious about the stats for that feature.
Regardless, the ratio of % of visitors who are registered users is probably way higher for Facebook.
Facebook will take over the SPAM filled Myspace ..someday soon!
For Germany it will be about the same scenario.
I really don’t think the raw numbers are a good comparison. The platforms are going in very different directions.
MySpace has definitely become a pop culture oriented site. It’s about bands, artists, comedians, and the profiles that people maintain are centered around their interests and tastes.
Facebook on the other hand is definitely more of a true networking platform. Profiles are genuinely based on who you are, what you’re doing, and personal interactions with others.
So as the two platforms diverge in terms of how they are used, they are really competing less to fulfill the same function for their users.
yeah, explain that to a 17 year old. “whahh? social network? you mean like myspace?”
I definitely agree. MySpace was likely hoping to own the youth-dominated social networking market until Facebook came around. I mean really, look at who existed before their entrance. MS was a big improvement.
Even though that aspect of the company still exists, it’s pretty clear MySpace is more interested in connecting its users with bands, artists, etc. Of course, there are other uses, but MS does this better than FB.
MySpace vs. Facebook: No competition {seesmic_video:{”url_thumbnail”:{”value”:”http://t.seesmic.com/thumbnail/kTHhfY5rNb_th1.jpg”}”title”:{”value”:”MySpace vs. Facebook: No competition ”}”videoUri”:{”value”:”http://www.seesmic.com/video/lDmCofxndD”}}}
twitter.com/dankalmar
WTF do these numbers even mean? Will Facebook get $$ for each new user or no? Will they turn more profitable than MySpace?
Traffic after a certain point (100k users) means not much if you still can’t turn a proper profit.
Go Facebook!
Facebook is very likely to overtake Myspace simply because of its userbase. As users grow older, they all switch to Facebook, and nearly all fan clubs and “causes” are being created on facebook rather than MySpace nowadays. Facebook may beat MySpace, but that doesn’t mean something better than Facebook won’t come along to shake things up.
Yes, it will – whether it occurs within the calendar year is unsure, but it will. MySpace is a chaotic mess.
And why do any of you care whether they are profitable? Do you have a stake in the company?
Every single user of a service has a stake in the service. They are also interested in having the service remain alive and that means being profitable because all those servers bought and engineers hired costs quite a bit. You can’t scale if you’re poor and there’s no point in scaling if you can’t maintain it.
Whether a myspace fan or a facebook fan, here is a cool website to create personalized avatars for profile pictures with your own face http://www.trutoon.com
Have fun!
these numbers seem flawed.
facebook has more individual users, without a doubt.
This game is over. Facebook has defeated MySpace. As for time spent on the site, of course MySpace is longer their platform is so slow to load. To MySpace’s credit they have identified that they need to find their niche, which looks like music and movies – a smart move.
But is the definition of “winner” visits or monetization?
I say monetization thus MySpace is clearly ahead of Facebook.
MySpace has done a much better job of monetizing their site without alienating their core users. Facebook has the worst performing advertising on the internet.
I have no doubt that Facebook will surpass Myspace in 2010. I finally realized it when I saw my tech-not mother get down with the Facebook family. Welcome mom. Love U
Facebook seems to be turning into “Social Networking for Grown-Ups”. Having had skeletal pages on both, it wasn’t until 6 months ago that my non-tech friends started coming aboad – on Facebook. Within the last 6 months, I have personally added 50-60 friends (also mid- to late 30s) who setup profiles during this time.
A demographic breakdown of the data would be more interesting- It seems to me that Facebook is quickly dominating the mid- to late-20s and older generation. It remains to be seen whether MySpace can maintain a hold on the younger generation and prevent them from migrating to FB with age.
Having a difficult enough time maintaining a presence on FB, I wonder if anyone really tries to maintain a presence on both.
Monetization is THE issue and it phenomenal the way the THE issue is overlooked in so much of the giddy and self-perpetuating speculation.
Maybe fb will turn into something or maybe it is 21st century tulip mania.
Fact is, no matter how wildly popular it might become, it really isn’t anything if it won’t make money. Tulip mania turned into tulip panic, of course . . .
It also reminds me of some old sci-fi scenario wherein there are, like, two people left on earth who aren’t hooked on facebook and have discovered that it is an alien plot to subdue and enslave the human race — invasion of the body/mind snatchers kind of stuff.
There is great spoof on “A Facebook Bailout” at
http://news.cne...0091189-71.html in case anyone missed it.
This spoof was published in early November and and in early December reports were coming in that facebookers were scrambling for more capital to make up for significant revenue shortfalls.
This is all quite hilarious.
Swiss weekly «Die Weltwoche» (www.weltwoche.ch) will publish a big story on Facebook’s success in Switzerland tonight.
Yes, I agree Facebook will take over Myspace!!! LinkedIn will take over Facebook! It’s the logical next step!
I signed up for myspace in ‘06 to get a free pass to Borat. I have signed in once since then. I sign in to facebook everyday.
All of my friends who have used myspace over the years are progressively using facebook more and more, myspace less and less. This demographic includes the 23-38 group.
Music is the only thing that will keep myspace going (music is the original reason myspace took off). If facebook can develop a great music platform, they will win out in the end.
Something will see an opportunity to take out both. Not, LinkedIn.
I agree I think that facbook is taking over the social networking scene. I’ve had Myspace for about 4 years and Facebook for 7 months and I have made more connections in with Facebook.
Since this is techcrunch I expected the title of the post to be —
Will the Startup Facebook Overtake the corporate Behemoth MySpace In The U.S. In 2009?
I personally like how facebook looks like and some other stuff, but it is obvious that facebook will beat myspace.
Greg
My bet is that it will over take myspace by a small margin. I think these two giants will battle it out from there for a while.
Facebook will overtake MySpace this year and may do so by September. But the social computing space still needs “personal website” player with brain dead simple tools for building customizable HTML pages. That app, with friending ability, will win the day. Though Zude.com never delivered on usability its heart was in the right place. “Bringing web development to the people.”
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