Today’s keynote presentation by Phil Schiller has been widely regarded as a relatively lackluster affair. That isn’t to say it went badly - I’m genuinely excited about some of the new software updates. But the Macworld keynote in years past has been home to some very major product announcements, including the Macbook Air, the MacBook Pro, and perhaps most notably, the first iPhone. Investors have learned to expect big things from Apple every January, and for at least the last four years their reactions to the keynote have weighed heavily on Apple’s stock price.
Except for this year. And that’s no accident.
A site called the Keynote Index Fund has tabulated just how big these stock swings have been over the years. In 2006, Apple launched some of its first Intel-based computers, and was rewarded with gains of 10.3% over the two days following the announcement. The next year, the launch of the iPhone and the Apple TV was met with an increase of a whopping 13.5% over the same time period.
But the stock has taken a major hit whenever the keynote didn’t live up to expectations. Last year, Apple released products including Time Capsule, Movie Rentals, AppleTV 2, and Macbook Air - an impressive lineup to be sure, but nothing that could live up to the iPhone release of the year before. The stock subsequently took a 10.7% loss over the next two days.
In the weeks leading up to Macworld 2009, it looked like this year’s show might be headed for a similar fate. Rumors of new products were few and far between, and it seemed like Apple simply didn’t have much to announce. And then Apple dropped the bomb: this would be the company’s last Macworld, and CEO Steve Jobs wasn’t going to be giving the keynote. This spawned countless distasteful rumors regarding Jobs’ health, but it also served to lower expectations. Leading analysts went on to report that “no significant new products [were] expected“. So when Phil didn’t whip out the third generation iPhone this morning, nobody was surprised. The stock dipped a bit, but little more than it would on a typical day.
So what was the damage? A loss of $1.56 (-1.65%). Nothing to cheer about, but looking at years past, it could have been much, much worse. Granted, the figures stated above were averaged over two days, so we won’t know until tomorrow just how big the swing was, but given today’s performance I won’t be surprised if any change is relatively modest.
It’s unlikely we’ll ever know if Steve Jobs pulled out from the show with the direct intention of lowering expectations. But can you picture him presenting a keynote whose major highlights were an 8-hour laptop battery and some software updates? I don’t think he could either.
Update: Apple closed down -2.01 (-2.16%) on the day following the keynote. Again, nothing to celebrate, but compared to past years it could have been worse.
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Plenty to come though. Push iWork/iLife into the cloud. Nano iphone. New Shuffle thin as a credit card. Touch tablet. Etc
So what? Just wait for Jan 2010 and you will find Apple dishing out something spectacular from it’s stable as usual. With lackluster keynote this year the pressure will be on it to make next year’s keynote something to look forward to…
I’m not saying Apple is going down the tubes or anything like that - just that this year’s lower-key performance was very calculated.
Wasn’t there many predictions this year that Apple would be going down the evolution route and not innovation? So what if they don’t consistantly release new and exciting products just for the sake of pleasing the consumer. Innovation and coming up with THE idea is surely better than releasing something for the sake of it!
still waitin’ for that jumbo ipod touch.
I actually prefer the evolution vs innovation route, at least on a semi-regular basis. It shapes up Apple to be the In-N-Out of the computer world. I don’t want them to do everything, I just want them to do something really well.
joseeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
Um, Anita, you caught the part about Apple not doing Macworld keynotes anymore….right?
Tomorrow Apple will introduce a big surprise, Netbook without keyboard.
Wait another day before comparing the latest stock drop to previous two-day losses!
Clever Name.
this was a good year to announce nothing substantial. I am not sure the public is in the buying mood right now. Everyone seems to be waiting to see which way the wind blows. I expect some nice announcements later in the year but again only if the economy greets new products with buying customers. Otherwise, it’s like whistling in the wind.
Apple’s joing the Cloud bandwagon for sure
jose here
I actually think that some of the things introduced today aren’t that small.
For example the interaction between iPhone and Facebook i think it’s something underestimate, just think how many people will move from flickr, picasa or myspace to facebook as preferred picture depository because it’s natively supported by iphoto. The face recognizing system will make all the tagging system much faster and easier, i can’t wait to try it.
OR the reverse may be true. Apple may have pulled more “spectacular” announcements since steve would not be giving the talk.
This could be a calculated move to begin a new schedule of product releases that moves away from the “big whammy” Macworld. It was a deliberately limited product release even though there are new (or upgrade) hardware products done or almost ready that could have been announced.
Apple will soon (within a month or two) roll out some new stuff maybe even with Steve on stage?
Stay tuned …
It hasnt worked so well for them anyways. January event? Post-X-mas event, not the best idea. Everyone’s broke….well, now they really are.
I’m really surprised they haven’t added the matte screen option to the two other MacBooks.
I also agree that this would probably not have been the year for “the next iPhone” or what ever great innovation people might be expecting. I doubt Steve talking or not had much to do with what they announced.
Couldn’t it be that since Steve Jobs is not presenting the keynote address this time around, the people at Apple decided to keep from revealing all the technologically advanced things that they are bringing out, shelved for another day - That is a day when Steve returns in good health?
Davide,
Flickr is defacto as Facebook as far as being supported by iPhoto ‘09.
I suppose you might mean that Facebook tags will be readable while Flickr tags possibly will not?
I suppose that will depend on how many people there are you cannot name that show up in Friends of friends photos (who know the names) and your own.
Very good article.
Really good one…
Any one know anything about a new imac update? I thought I heard some rumors leading up to macworld but then nothing???
Stock down a tiny bit more in after-hours. Good stuff Jason.
AAPL will go up again no matter what
Nice Article …
Apple is ditching MacWorld. The reason was because Apple didn’t like the sale dip caused by announcements of future products. If you are looking at the iPhone, will you buy it now knowing there is going to be a better one coming soon? I won’t.
Apple is more interested in long term stock performance than day to day fluctuation.
steeve jobs rocks !
Sometimes it’s just good to improve what you have and re-group for future moves.
@PeterUrban
I was just wishing they would have answered the question: Where is Snow Leopard? I’m looking forward to that!
I love the new Mac Book Wheel. Typing is so much slower it actually gives me time to think http://www.straight.com/articl.....heel%3F%3F
Of course Mobday Apple price was driven by Steve Jobs heakth release.