Two notes from Wall Street analysts came to my inbox today with top-ten predictions for what 2009 holds in store for the technology industry. J.P. Morgan’s Imran Khan, for instance, predicts Yahoo and Microsoft will finally strike a search deal, video advertising on the Web isn’t working, retail bankruptcies could actually help e-commerce companies, and that M&A activity will pick up in the second half of 2009 (but the IPO market will be dead until 2010).
Barclays’ Doug Anmuth thinks that both Yahoo and eBay will make major strategic moves this year to try to right their businesses, distribution wars in search will break out between Google and Microsoft, and there will be consolidation among the 300-plus ad networks out there. Both believe that performance-based advertising will continue to rise in importance.
Rather than reproduce all 20 predictions from both analysts, I’ve picked six from each and listed them below. You can vote for your favorite predictions, or the ones you think are most likely to happen, in the poll at the bottom of the post. (I also threw in a couple extra ones for good measure from John Battelle: “Google will see search share decline significantly for the first time ever” and “Yahoo and AOL will merge”). Add your own predictions in comments.
Imran Khan’s 2009 Tech Predictions (J.P. Morgan)
- Potential search deal likely between Yahoo! and Microsoft
- Net Neutrality should become an important mainstream issue
- Challenges in monetizing video advertising should persist
- Mobile usage should continue its strong growth momentum, but mobile
advertising will likely be challenging this year - Possible bankruptcies in brick-and-mortar retail should create opportunities
for eCommerce companies - M&A consolidation activities could potentially resume during 2H’09 (IPO market is dead until 2010)
Doug Anmuth’s 2009 Tech Predictions (Barclays Capital)
- Yahoo and eBay will make major strategic decisions
- Performance-based advertising will be more important than ever
- Increased Competition For Search Distribution Via Toolbars, OEM Deals, and Partnerships
- Proliferation of Smart Phones Will Drive The Mobile Internet
- Small Strategic Acquisitions Will Re-Emerge
- Ad Networks To Consolidate
Digg will launch a new ad platform leading to improved revenue. I wouldn’t be surprised if it became an acquisition target later in the year.
Also, Michael Arrington will be named CEO of Yahoo!
Erik, can you tell me where I can find the original reports or if they are available to the public at all.
They were sent to me privately. I think you need to be a brokerage customer to get them.
Well, there’s a nice collection of extremely safe bets.
No “all of the above” in your survey, really?
I agree. All of these are not just plausible, but probable.
things will happen when they are ready to happen, and will not happen if they are not ready to happen, so i think guessing the future is pretty pointless
Create or join a crunchie’s chat group at http://groups.im/
I think many of the predictions are likely to come to fuition, however, I am a strong believer in mobility, which is why that’s the one I voted for. In fact, I believe that with the continuing innovation in technology for devices like the iPhone, laptops and desk top computers will lose their viability. People are becoming more and more used to being able to work from wherever they are, and not having to be tied to a computer in the office simply makes more sense.
Sell-side analysts will continue to suck at rating stocks. Yet some will still listen to them.
Companies will make strategic decisions?! There will be mergers and acquisitions?! Performance based advertising will grow?! Monetization my be hard?! Smart devices will fuel growth in mobile Internet?!
Really?! And to think that large organizations spent piles of time, effort and attention to “deliver” these to the world.
Even interesting predictions like a big drop in search share for Google are useless without the supporting insight and analysis to back it up. Otherwise it simply contributes to the din of what passes for investment research these days.
We should use all this energy for better things.
Thanks Kris, you saved my breath. It seems I will go for horoscope this year instead of spending loads of $ on J.P.Morgan and other brilliant analysts.
Interesting predictions, I recently posted a list on my blog with predictions.
Seesmic dies, is my prediction
Predictions
the killer business iphoone app turns out to be already here, internet access.
iphoone games forever dominate. serious business players use the internet.
iphoone becomes seen as a fancy toy player fad.
the internet consolidates, integrates and merges to eliminate more tech jobs than ever before.
major print media scramble to acquire strategic internet footprint as consumption dwindles.
the fundamental end of tech innovation becomes increasingly self evident.
locator dude acquires VC and drops the hammer on “search”, changing the whole internet search game to “location.”
LeaderLocator.com – focus ahead
really? I’m not listening to anything from a NY (or London, for that matter) investment bank
Here are mine:
1. Google stock back over $500
2. New Yahoo CEO will get back to an offer from Microsoft closer to the original.
3. eBay will continue to struggle, lose market share to Amazon/niche.
4. Valueclick will continue to fall and either go under or get acquired.
5. Online advertising will creep back in the summer.
6. Microsoft will gain in online search with Kumo.
7. Mobile OEM’s will realize platform standardization isn’t their answer.
http://tinycomb...tions-for-tech/
Look at.. just because AOL and Yahoo too sites I BARELY use anyways… merge together?.. doesn’t mean im going to stop using Google: “the official sponser of the internet.
They’ve not only got to come up with some pretty dope software but an un BELIEVABLE marketing campaign to swtich loyal / logical and handsome users such as myself..
Those are some boring predictions, very politically correct and what I would expect to see from a high level executive.
Check out mine for 2009:
http://www.adri...tions-for-2009/
very predictable predictions….
I pray video advertising is dead… It is a popup when you put stuff in front of user content. why doesn’t youtube have a little text base link beneath the videos that do not get in the way. I might actually be prone to read and use those links. When youtube puts stuff in front of my sxephill all I do is get annoyed and click the x. I tune out ads..I don’t hear them. ADVERTISERS stop annoying your users. Pet fn peeve..lets annoy someone into buying something…
Amen. For some reason advertisers think we are stoooopid….get a life.
“Yahoo and eBay will make major strategic decisions”
It is no wonder all of the investment banks are going under. This dude gets paid six, probably seven figures, to come up with this gem. I mean, do you really need the Harvard MBA to come up with this earth shattering analysis?
15 industries you could sell to during the 2009 recession year. http://bit.ly/dtBq
You better sell to companies still having budgets and able to pay your invoices on time.
Most of those predictions are no brainers, they’re just natural consequences to events that happened in 2008.
Let’s have some meaty Tech Crunch predictions for 2009 – thats why i read news here not on those coorporate sites, i get real opinions here.
Its always risky as you’re bound to get some wrong when you make big statements, but the kudos is huge if you were to nail one or two big happenings…
It would be interesting to see how you read these predictions in the light of Gerald Celente’s forecasts for 2009/2010.
http://en.wikip.../Gerald_Celente
And, of course, what all this translates into in terms of impact on the job market.
Interestingly enough, no word about “Barclays will get nationalized or sold to the Emirates”.