Greek startup AskMarkets, which lets users create and participate in non-cash prediction markets of any kind, has created a prediction market for startups in CrunchBase.
The application lets users bet on the chances any particular startup will be acquired, get additional funding or head to the deadpool in the next year. An example: users say Animoto has a 51.5% chance of being acquired, a 25% chance of being funded and a 23.4% chance of deadpooling. I bought some shares of “get acquired” because I love this startup’s focus on on making one product perfectly while competitors wander.
I also created my own market for TechCrunch as a startup. Yep, I’m trading on inside information.
Well done, it is a quite interesting concept and it will be nice to see a gadgetized offer as well that could be emdeded into blog posts
Tooo many bugs.
Too much startups..
This would work very well within large corporations too for deciding what R&D projects to fund (or continue funding).
Mike, thank you so much for the coverage!
Everyone (enterprises included) can create his own marketplace, check http://askmarkets.com/services, it takes less than a minute.
You may also check our blog at http://blog.askmarkets.com for more details.
And thank you all people for your (good or bad) feedback, we really need it!
WOOHOO!
MarkTend is going to get in the market! Everyday I will wake-up and make sure we are not going to the deadpool (question: did you have to wait for an hour after eating before you go into the deadpool? Will you cramp and get all gassy? Is there horseplay allowed in the deadpool? Can you run near the deadpool? What would happen if you went pee in the deadpool?)
Michael Kassing
MarkTend.com
“An example: users say Animoto has a 51.5% chance of being acquired, a 25% chance of being acquired”
What?
You mean get funded?
Can I buy some credit default swaps around all of web 2.0?
great site, actually i am an askmarkets fanatic !!! its main problem (at least currently) is its small “traders” pool but i guess this will change quite soon.
Acquisitions have nothing to do with those metrics.
FAIL
Plus their flex app is broken
Plus they’re stealing your trademark.
If you were smart you’d have a C&D on the way.
It would be AWESOME to get an analysis of those finalists from: Techcrunch50 and Demo – especially given the SUDDEN downturn in the global economy afterwards.
ya nice concept. But buggy buggy. Anyway thanks for the insider information
You always read about prediction markets starting up but you never hear about any successes. Kind of like pay-to-blog companies.
That video is aweful. I couldn’t get through watching it, maybe got 20 seconds in and they didn’t say anything.
If you want to see a really well done demo video, check out http://www.textflow.com/ they did an amazing job.
I predict Ask Markets will be successful (people will use it), with a 60% chance of them making money.
Good thing there is a bug reporting email on the homepage.
doesn’t work. after signing up it’s impossible to login.
also, when clicking the name of a company in the list of predictions, it goes to a 404 page.
never more.
“anything” that stirs crunchbase can be a good thing.
luvu2
“has a 51.5% chance of being acquired, a 25% chance of being acquired ”
That’s like a %76.5 chance huh Mike?
Put the Chimay down and back away from the keyboard!
It looks like the options don’t change for public companies.
Will Microsoft “get (further) funding,” “get acquired,” or “head to the deadpool”? Hmm. Tough call
This is awesome!
Well done AskMarkets.
Fascinating data could come from examining trends here along with http://www.crunchvision.com/ geographical data to further drill down.
Doing it well would require a mashup of two mashups.
http://www.eskibirsaat.com
I predict AskMarkets will go to the deadpool in exactly 6 months time. I’m 100% certain. If only I could place a real bet.
yeah didn’t work for me either. ff3. after signup couldn’t login. after selecting a category no listings display. search didn’t return my startup. second page of 10 paginated returned nothing.
good idea tho i’m keen to see it work.
I think prediction markets are much more accurate when people have to put their money where their mouth is. With no real money involved, I’m not sure how well its going to work.
Also having too many markets might make things less liquid
The only way you could do this for real is to poll VCs.
Askmarket’s data is not ever going to be accurate.
Only TC or somebody could pull that off because they have access.
Mike Arrington *could* make TONS of money by polling VCs and selling the data.
Schonfeld is pretty good with Excel, he could give Gartner a run for their money.
I am on the brink of dissolving my LLC Mike, you wanna outsource that to us??
I can’t leave my day job to do it, but I can put it together with my employees.
I know the techs over at TC can’t handle this.
I still have my contact at Mangrove, and at other VCs and I still have my pedatacenter membership to pull term sheets.
The VCs could feel threatened by non-publicity for non-participation and the polls could be bi-weekly or monthly.
The data could go for 3-5k per pdf just like Gartner. I’d take 30% plus a flat fee for doing all the tech work and setting up the CMS for the VCs to take the surveys.
Here, I’m leaving my real email in case you’re interested. I’d need 2-3 months to set up the entire system and the front end where people could buy the data Gartner style.
Too many problems..
http://www.pehu...ers-since-1974/
“Worst Monthly Job Numbers Since 1974
Posted on: December 5th, 2008″
The one time re-hashing pe-hub would have been a good weekend story and you didn’t!
i pick Obama.
i don’t think Apple’s price will double “again” in the next year.
i think askmarkets should update their homepage with more current questions.
what did i win?
I assume AskMarkets did this cuz they knew it would likely get mentioned on TC. If I’m right there, good job marketing your product.
If this is supposed to be a biz idea in of itself, I must say that the idea of trading imaginary dollars in companies with imaginary business models is not really all that interesting.
To make things worse, this terrible trading exchange idea has already been done by TradeVibes (www.tradevibes.com). Two wrongs unfortunately still don’t make a right.
Given market meltdown, I’d suggest people focus on trying to make real money – not imaginary. If you really want to trade in this crap-fest, short the whole thing. There will be a few winners but overall, you’ll be the winner of the most imaginary dollars.
When will the madness stop/
I like dabbling on the TradeVibes exchange for fun. Nothing wrong with that and it isn’t their centerpiece, it’s a feature. I go there to cross-check and look up info and if I have time, I tweak my portfolio. AskMarkets’ focus IS prediction markets and play money so I’d say it’s beyond a feature, it’s a wrong biz idea (by your definition).
People really seem to like the TradeVibes Startup Exchange on the site. There is definitely room to tweek it, and make it more challenging/realistic, but if nothing else it’s an interesting way to see how the community values particular startups.
If nothing else, it’s like any other online game, right? You put a lot of time and effort in to something that is completely virtual and that will not give you any monetary return of any kind. I’m not 100% sure about this, but people really seem to enjoy past times that operate like this (a la MMORPGs? That ring a bell?.) It’s like playing poker with no money. All you lose is a little pride.
I’d rather be playing with fake money than real money in this economy.
Thank you all for the interest and comments, I may add that the TechCrunch marketplace is just a showcase of our services, and you may create your very own marketplace within a minute and few clicks at http://askmarkets.com/services