October was a good month for Twitter. All those election Tweets brought a 25 percent increase in U.S. visitors from the month before, to 1.45 million unique visitors, according to comScore. (Worldwide, the number was 5.6 million in September). Since January, Twitter has experienced a 16-fold growth in the U.S. And that is just visitors to Twitter.com. These numbers don’t count all the people who send and read Tweets from other Websites, desktop apps, or their mobile phones.
Twitter is having its hockey stick moment in terms of its growth just shooting up. Last week it may have delivered its billionth Tweet, at least nominally. And it looks like it is approaching escape velocity. If it doesn’t break up from all the pressure and is able to keep its service up and running more or less, it could soon—gasp!—break into the mainstream.
That little red line at the bottom of the chart, just for reference, is FriendFeed. It is still scraping the ice in terms of growth. Comscore only measures 150,000 unique U.S. visitors in October (550,000 worldwide in September). But that’s just below where Twitter was last January. And FriendFeed is a lot younger than Twitter, having launched publicly only last February, compared to July, 2006 for Twitter. Maybe a year from now it will be hitting its hockey stick.
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I agree that Twitter is all set to go mainstream, but I am not so sure about Friendfeed. I don’t really think it will ever go mainstream. I am a pretty tech savvy user and I dont use Friendfeed. It’s usefull to people like Erick with a lot of connections but not to me with only a few friends in a handfull number of networks.
I second the opinion of Pallab. I too use twitter but not the other service.
I think twitter’s “mainstream” acceptance has a lot to do with most people still not getting what twitter means in terms of value - many still think of it as a “people reporting what condiment they put on a hamburger” service.
Imran
http://neternity.org
http://imran.com/media/blog/
I just deleted Twitter. Facebook does status updates now so what’s the difference?
Really? You’re serious with that comment?
Yes, I think Facebook relationships are stronger (cousins, close friends, classmates, former coworkers) but in general you can’t say the same about Twitter.
In general, Facebook relationships might be stronger, but Twitter relationships aren’t insignificant. For instance, I do lots of javascript development work with JQuery, and I use Twitter to stay up to date with what’s happening with them. Whereas with Facebook, you don’t have this same open “microblogging.” It’s quite useful for following friends and organizations/people that you wouldn’t declare as “friends” on Facebook.
So, what’s the revenue model for Twitter again?
This question is not creative or interesting or clever. I’m tired of people ragging on truly creative and disruptive technologies for not having a clear business model early in their growth cycle. What do you care if they have no business model and eventually go out of business? It’s a cool service that resonates with people and presents real value. Thinking about revenue too much stifles creativity, and Twitter has clearly had no problem getting rich people (i.e. VCs) to bet on an eventual revenue model or high-dollar exit.
Twitter is creating real value for real people. Why don’t you try being the guy who encourages innovation instead of the guy who complains because he doesn’t understand the revenue opportunities of a popular and growing service?
I too am constantly amused by the nitwits who seem to be so concerned with Twitter’s apparent lack of a revenue model. Twitter has multiple potential revenue streams (several are non ad-related at that) and if they choose to use their time/money to stabilize their platform and roll out additional features/functionality when it’s appropriate that’s their choice.
Please quit whining and go find something useful to do with your time.
Sorry to be concerned with such things as “value” and “real growth potential”. We “rich people (i.e., VCs)” are crazy asking for little details like that. Btw, I’m not complaining about anything and all I did was ask a simple, obvious question. I like Twitter myself and use it regularly, so I’m not putting it down. I just don’t think it’s realistic to say its mainstream yet.
What’s up with the hostility here? Are you guys programmer’s at Twitter or something?
The question might not be creative or clever, but some of us annoying, old-school business types actually do consider revenue model important. I can’t wait to tell my boss on Monday that thinking about revenue too much is stifling my creativity. This sounds like something my friend says after his rich parents bankroll his latest half-baked idea.
It’s not that I completely disagree with your points, but your knee-jerk hostility is kind of weird. I hate to tell you this, but this question will continue to be asked until it is either answered or Twitter goes belly-up.
I understand that “revenue” and “Twitter” in the same sentence creates instant hostility, but it’s not necessarily a stupid question. Creative and disruptive technologies will never be a replacement for dirty, sexy money (sorry about the TV reference). Maybe it’ll come, but on the other hand, we’re in a recession.
Perhaps it doesn’t matter. If no one involved with Twitter gets rich, maybe the FriendFeed team will. As long as at least a few people get 8 or 9 figures sooner or later, I’m happy.
Mark, I sincerely hope that you are not a VC. Somewhere in this thread, you posted, “I still haven’t heard what they’re revenue model is.”
I would be extremely disappointed if people who are the representatives of our industry don’t even know the difference between “they’re” and “their”
.
Remember that old website without a revenue model?
Oh yeah, it was Google.
Have we learned nothing?
Glad you thought to post this, it’s interesting. Fwiw, I have a hard time reading twitter when I know that friendfeed is just a click away.
I saw a pre-movie Coke commercial last night where a guy sang about twitter so yeah it’s going mainstream.
Something about “I invited my MySpace friends and Twitter list”.
My thoughts exactly. When I saw that, I finally began to think that Twitter was breaking into the mainstream.
Of course, marketing types have been on Twitter for a while, so that might be misleading.
Good for them. None of those cloners like identica worked out huh?
Anything outside of made in California is damaged goods and people worldwide know it.
I use both services, and I have to say that the only reason I use FriendFeed now is to post all of my content to Twitter (like shared items from gReader, Hulu videos, Picasa–blogs I outsourced to TwitterFeed!).
PS
It also helped that Obama had a twitter account long before the other politicians decided it was popular for their own campaigns.
who uses friendfeed?
Mainstream? I think everyone needs to stop drinking the Kool-Aid here. There’s a loooong way to go until Twitter is “mainstream”. Our president-elect on Twitter was probably the function of a 23 year old intern (kudos to the intern). Get a clue. 99% of the coverage you guys do is on non-mainstream things and, likewise, 99% of the coverage here about the Twitters of the world are not anything the general population knows anything about. Scroll down the TC blog….I’m telling you, if you want to get something mainstream that’s great, but 99% of the garbage business models covered here won’t become that (but that 1% will sure be great). Now let’s go make some money.
Major news outlets (CNN or MSNBC, I don’t remember which) were asking viewers to Twitter their thoughts then reading them on-air during the election. I agree that Twitter isn’t mainstream yet, but that kind of coverage is what tips something into the mainstream. Twitter also has a foothold in a number of social groups outside the tech and political sectors.
Also, this is a blog about innovative technology. If you want to read about financials please go over to the WSJ and leave us alone while we make the stuff you’ll be using in a few years.
Someone take a leak in your Corn Flakes today?
Jonathan, who appointed you comment moderator? Questions about revenue models and adoption are highly relevant and compelling. ESPECIALLY given the current economic client.
Twitter is like Pong. Fun, interesting, and utterly irrelevant.
So is twitter at the tipping point?
http://www.stacktown.com
@EpMike - not sure about that. CNN has been pimping twitter an awful lot. at least they did during the election.
as for friendfeed, i can never see that thing going mainstream. twitter is as simple as it gets, which i think is feeding it’s massive growth right now. i still don’t know what the point of friendfeed is after trying to use it a couple of times. hate to say it, but i think facebook is probably better for most people then friendfeed.
Ok, I admit “someguy”, I was probably lumping Friendfeed in touch much w/Twitter. You’re right, Twitter has many more advantages. Friendfeed surely cannot be mainstream.
I’m sorry, but I still don’t have even close to a majority of my friends (and I’m not an old-timer) using Twitter, and a % of them don’t even know what it is. I live in NYC, so I’m not in Omaha thinking this. From a consumer standpoint, I’ll give it a maybe. From a business standpoint, what’s their cash flow and revenues like? I’m sure that to be mainstream, it would help to have a sustainable business model in this climate.
Fwiw, I agree with EpMike … the TC world is a small one. Most businesses are just now learning what blogging is, so I think micro-blogging has a ways to go b/f the President is giving his weekly addresses via Twitter. Also, I still haven’t heard what they’re revenue model is. It’s not like something major is on the 3-5 yr horizon for the company itself. It’s just cool/fun for those that dig that kind of thing. Mainstream it is not.
Thanks, Mark. I love the creativity and ideas from most on TC. But during these times, a hockey stick in Uniques doesn’t mean much. Its great to get a couple nice posts on TC and to have your usage ramping like Twitter’s is, and I think its a good service. But where will it be in March? And the next election is in 4 years. One has to worry about 99% of the companies covered on TC b/c of bad/no business models or a good business model led by a pea-brained 20 year-old. I’m seriously not being negative or raining on anyone’s parade; and, BTW, I’m a huge fan of TC even though I just started commenting; but I want to find things to get behind and/or invest in and tell people to use that have a better chance of making it than a fart in the wind….seriously, there has to be a way to look at the idea/usage AND the model. I’ll shut up now.
Um, all the best tech companies were stared by pea-brained 20 year olds with no business models. In the tech sector it’s the young people, who don’t understand the huge challenges they face, who take on big problems and solve them. Carpetbagging investors are the ones who cause the real trouble.
Oh…sorry…you’re right. Gates, Jobs, Murdoch, Welch…all pea-brains..if you’re heard of them.
Twitter is quickly embedding itself as a core blogging tool. I think blogging and social networks ensure twitter will go mainstream (not to mention all those influential early adopters).
@Jeremy, that’s fine for you to think that, and yes its a great tool. I just want to know, which no one can tell me, do they have enough cash and enough of a business model to have the time to become mainstream in the absence of a political election. I’m talking 3, 6, 24 months from now. This isn’t 2006 when you could rub two twigs together and make a business that becomes mainstream and has people lined up to throw pesos at it. They must be employing people, paying people, paying for servers, whatever else they’re doing…and I just haven’t seen anyone talk about Twitter as anything but a really cool FREE blogging extension. Whoop de doo. When/if they charged…see ya. I’m sure they’ll have to go the micropayment route or something.
Which business was it that in, “2006 when you could rub two twigs together and make a business that becomes mainstream”?
I dont think you know what the fuck you are talking about? I wish you would STFU and quit talking until you create a business that has…..10K users.
Geez, Phil, that’s a little extreme, don’t you think? You can have a cool product where all one billion Chinese are users, but if it doesn’t generate cashflow, it’s worthless, from an investor standpoint (and I think that’s the viewpoint Mike is coming from, or at least I am). I’m sure Fred Wilson et al see value opportunity in Twitter, otherwise they wouldn’t have invested part of the $15m, so the billion Tweets have to reflect some sort of value. Where the value is, however, just isn’t obvious to everyone. 10k users doesn’t mean anything without translating traffic into $.
Woah! Asking someone to back up their claim with facts is harsh???
I think you got the Order of Operations wrong. You can’t make ANY money without users, and until you have something to show besides a shitty typepad blog, I don’t think Twitter has any reason to give you the skinny on their monetization plans.
You probably are smarter than both Wilson and the rest of the partners USV, but you just don’t have any proof. I would probably put my money on them, sorry.
Plenty of one-man operations have managed to get 10K users with minimal effort ($ or sweat) on the side of their real jobs and those people have much more credibility than EpMike.
Investors care about the potential in the future, not the current circumstances. Not that you really have even a basic understanding of this works.
Just sit back, maintain your little blog, and let the big boys do their thing. Nothing to see here.
friendfeed is becoming friendster
I wonder what will happen to Twitter’s original base of users if it does go mainstream? Will they stay? Many early adopters prefer to use non-mainstream services, once the service becomes mainstream it is almost cliche. Don’t get me wrong, they will continue to use it as a marketing platform but will the really interesting discussion continue there or move? I have noticed a significant drop in tweet volume from many of the early adopters of the service. Some that use to tweet a couple of times an hour now only tweet as little as once a day. Just my 2 cents.
Bring Jack Dorsey back. he’d be able to explain the nuts and bolts of this twittr, “whats going on thing” better than anyone. he co-founded the damn thing.
CEOlocator.com
http://www.vator.tv/pitch/show/Twitter-Twitter
I think you all are missing the point. The important thing here is TC used the word HOCKEY in a post…. brings tears to the eyes…
http://www.quantcast.com/twitter.com
Their traffic frequency numbers aren’t as good as facebook, or myspace in terms of addicts, or regulars. So, a lot of people are checking out what the buzz is about, and likely moving on after trial.
I think 2009 is the year that twitter grows up and becomes as much of a household name as Facebook. Look for usage to continue skyrocketing in the months to come…
Boris
http://www.thewebwar.com
anyone who doesn’t think Twitter is close to being mainstream hasn’t watched Rick Sanchez’s show on CNN =)
Well it might be over the pond in the U.S but believe it or not i don’t know anybody who uses it here in the U.K …………..
I can haz monetization plan?
And what are some good examples of productive uses of Twitter for people with lives? I am sure they are out there, but following someone’e every thought is not one of them. Who can step up and provide some good uses of twitter?
I am still a bit of a skeptic but what value it has seems to be in long-tail communications: One example that seems useful to me is sharing information fast: E.g., posting the URL of an interesting site or article with a one-line comment. Microblogging an event is a narrower example. A much broader value might be simply “staying in touch” - the 1:many open communication model, like with Facebook, is much lower effort than traditional communication models with explicit addressing (like email). I am considering starting to twitter to get the word out about things I am reading, thinking about and involved in simply so that I can maximize others’ engagement in things I care about. We’ll see if it works for me in practice.
What is the cost of each twitter? Are they paying regular text message fees? That’s like 10 cents a message. How could they ever break even on that?
Have you even bothered to investigate the cost of bulk SMS purchases? There is a whole lot more to the pricing than what you’ve indicated you understand, so I don’t feel like explaining it to you.
Don’t you have homework to do?
Yes, it is clear that Twitter is taking off, big time. And that’s awesome. Another look into the space from Compete.com, shows Twitter, Friendfeed, and Plaxo. Check it out: http://siteanalytics.compete.c.....?metric=uv
John McCrea
Hmm. A hockey-stick “moment”…? Great flash-in-the-pan headline. In a month or two, this “moment” could fizzle and become an inverse hockey-stick. Would be fun to have some quiet respite from the blog-wankology!
Good traffic,now cash is needed.:)
To Mark and others skeptical of microblogging.
If you think twitter, as a company, won’t be the one who brings microblogging into the mainstream, then I think you have made your point. They obviously need money. Facebook also doesn’t make a lot of money, but Li Ka-Shing and Microsoft gave them plenty of money - and Facebook still hasn’t found a way to generate much revenue from their ad platform. Who knows what will happen to Twitter.
Anyway, microblogging itself is going to go mainstream, because SMS is mainstream, and instant messaging is mainstream, and popular TV shows like American Idol used SMS promotions with success, and microblogging is a tool which can be used for promotion, political organization, and many other activities. I just think it is a no-brainer. Blogs will be real-time, they will be personal, and it can happen quickly because people use SMS. One major company will tie microblogging into their communication platform, then another will copy them to stay relevant. It might not directly generate any revenue for years.
Again, I’m not skeptical per se and I’m certainly not dissing Twitter … I love using the platform and I think it serves a lot of purpose for me. This whole discussion started with a question about Twitter’s revenue model up to this point, and I haven’t heard anything on that yet. Also, I said it isn’t mainstream yet, with “yet” being the key word there. It may end up being the biggest thing since the introduction of the personal computer, but the point of the discussion was whether they are mainstream at this point.
Phil, that’s big talking, friend. You must be ultra successful behind the anonymity. I’m sure posting anonymously is better for someone as popular and successful as you. My record/experience speaks for itself.
I’m not the one claiming to have the answers, you are. Beyond that, given the large number of Twitter copy-cats, if I were Twitter, I certainly wouldn’t be laying out my plans for generating revenue.
Considering your, “record/experience” I’m sure you can figure out what might happen if they gave detailed plans for making money.
I think you are presumptuous to assume they owe you or anyone else besides their investors an explanation of their monetization plans.
P.S. Very original calling out my anonymity. That speaks volumes about the strength of your argument. Some of us do not require credit for our thoughts. Spam/ self-promotion vs. Anonymous troll - One simply cannot win…
The hockey stick - you smoe - is for revenues - or maybe profits. Heralding the hockey stick with visits is moronic and indicative of the crash that is about to come - it will be deafening in the echo chamber you live in.
Oh, please pardon my spelling - you SCHMOE - there, that’s better.
What about be-a-magpie, it dod’nt click well with the twitterers i guess
Um, what is a “hockey stick moment?” The graph doesn’t look like a hockey stick. Is this some kind of sports metaphor?
Growth doesn’t look like a hockey-stick rather appears to be similar rate as earlier in the year.
I agree with what some have said in that we should wait for a couple of months after the election tide is out.
I believe “hockey stick moment” in this case would mean that we’re about to see growth accelerate exponentially. I agree that the chart is no hockey stick at this point.
I love twitter!
I think the twitter faces now the challenge of what and how to do with a lot of noise in the system which has no value and causes users to miss the important things. If you follow enough people, it becomes harder to get value out of twitter these days…
my comments at http://www.commentino.com/orim
Wow, the first sensible comment. I too, think it is astonishing that neither Twitter, nor any of the Twitter API users have focused on filtering tools.
None of the johnny-come-lately twitter clones have focused on filtering either. Probably because they are just sheep…
There are certainly signs that Twitter is entering the mainstream, including the fact there are growing number of blog articles on how to use Twitter.
Can’t wait for Twitter to get a business plan to capitalize on all these users.
Mark
Awwww, c’mon. It’s the oldest business model in the book, er on the block, under a streetlamp. It’s sex, it’s a drug. Start with free samples on street corners. People will pay once hooked. Can you really put it down? Just walk away?
Erick
what’s interesting to me about the comScore numbers (and I used to be on the board of comScore and am still a large owner of their stock) is that they seem to me to be a little out of whack.
from my observation of other twitter numbers, the US and Int’l uvs is about even. and yet comScore has only about 25% of the user base as domestic.
seems to me that comScore isn’t tracking this correctly yet. i am certain they will get it right over time, but i don’t think it’s right yet.
Wrong, Grubb. If this blog was solely about tech and innovation, Arrington and Co. would not cover stories pertaining to revenues, profits, or layoffs. The subject is very important and highly relevant.
If you don’t like it, just skip over it. Not responding is much easier than coming off as a condescending, overly-sensitve douche.
Yeah, I was in a mood. It’s not about this (or any) blog being solely about innovation, I just get annoyed when people discount innovation because it doesn’t make enough money. I think too much focus on $$ actually hurts the younger, more eager kids who do the coolest stuff. You know, think of the children!
..more Twitter masturbation. Have any of you twitter users estimated the amount of time required and the resulting disruptions as a rsult of using twitter thoughtout the day. Let’s get serious, between Facebook, blogs, etc, how much value do tweets actually add to your life…aside from teh regurgitation of popular urls, new events etc that have already been posted numerous times elswhere.
Let’s look at it another way, if the value of your ’social graph’ is directly proportional to the number of your connections, doesnt twitter become less useful the more people you follow and who follow/respond to you? Can ‘Joe the plumber’ keep up with such an unrestrained ‘firehose’ of constant information? That’s who we’re talking about when it comes to mainstream…
Twitter is a huge productivity killer, which is why I think it will make it into the mainstream. Other famous productivity killers: chat, email, youtube, social networks, the internet in general.
I find twitter very useful in my daily life, especially when I can use it to see what friends are doing and meet up with them in the real world.
If Julia Allison can have a twitter account, i’m very sure ”
Joe The Plumber” can have one too…
Oh btw,
Check out http://www.jobstaxi/com
New Jobs. Bebo. Big Fish Games. Cryptic Studios. Adaptive Path. Ubisoft Singapore. DivX Inc.
Hi Twitter and the hockey stick. When we measure tweets and tell the world that it’s it’s a good month for twitter then we need to be careful as this is not a measure we want to necessarily follow in order to be successful. And it’s definitely not a measure of true success when you compare twitter and friendfeed.
The number of tweets and the trend could be due to auto feeding tweets from blogs and friendfeed.
Twitter may become a dump-of-excess.
It’s pretty useless to dump info and you don’t generate business or create relationships doing it. But if dumping is done automatically then who cares….you may be measuring twitter spam.
All I am saying if you don’t measure more business, more relationships then you cannot really compare the tweeting trend with a friendfeed trend.
Twitter should be cutting you a check for all the free publicity and advertising.
I wonder what “mainstream” means here in quantitative terms. Twitter receives a lot of attention because it seems to do so much right. By comparison for example, on the FriendFeed hp, we see: “FriendFeed helps you discover and discuss interesting stuff that your friends and family find on the web.” That’s a bit vague - not much to differentiate it from social bookmarking sites. Then the right hand side of the hp is largely without links. It’s remarkable that the (4 ex-google?) founders haven’t given more thought to uid and copywriting. On the other hand, FF obviously targets a much broader audience than Twitter. TC-pleasing cool isn’t necessary for success: look at hi5.com. Also in early growth, a “hockey stick” isn’t all that impressive. Map that growth onto a log or log-log scale and then look at the curve. What you really want is at least exponential growth rates; but of course there are many VC exit options, many of which do not demand profitability.
@al. Use of Twitter: efficient way to quickly solicit informal opinion from your network.
@exapted. I’m not sure the argument by analogy is sound. You’ve got a cell, you can SMS. Until being a savvy web user (or webmaster) is as easy as using a phone, the two can’t be compared.
It’s software like the one being demo’d here that is responsible for Twitter increases during largely manipulat-able times where professional bloggers/twitters/social community posters are hired en masse to broadcast… http://sphinn.com/story/86373 …
I doubt that the time around election time had positive impact on the real “building” of the (now enlarged) twitter community.
I think Twitter’s investors should start to think long and hard about cashing in. Social networks remind me of the old Boston Common. A place where everyone gathered, but is now a tourist attraction. http://blog.cosential.com/?p=148