Comments on: Can Piqqem Use The Crowd To Pick Stocks? Don’t Bet On It.

By: Who Says the Crowd Has to Be Right? « SimianLogic Studios

Who Says the Crowd Has to Be Right? « SimianLogic Studios — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 20:48:14 +0000

[...] not making games, I’m still cranking away on my day job–Piqqem. Eric Schonfeld did a review of the site on TechCrunch last Friday, so I thought I’d respond with my own two cents on the company. Clearly I’m [...]

By: Piqqem - wisdom of crowds meets stock market predictions - again…

Piqqem - wisdom of crowds meets stock market predictions - again… — Sat, 20 Dec 2008 14:40:48 +0000

[...] Can Piqqem Use The Crowd To Pick Stocks? Don’t Bet On It. [...]

By: Piqqem lets you see the crowd’s favorite stocks » VentureBeat

Piqqem lets you see the crowd’s favorite stocks » VentureBeat — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 18:46:06 +0000

[...] an approach that TechCrunch’s Erick Schonfeld criticized last month, arguing that “its picks are only as good as the people who contribute to it.” [...]

By: Sean

Sean — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 16:27:21 +0000

Nobody wants stock tips – people want smart people to follow.
MarketGuru has the ball on this one boys, no doubt – I’m with miller on that one.

I can’t believe you’d even mention SP.. they’ve turned into a news site.

By: Miller

Miller — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 15:50:29 +0000

I’m surprised at this superficial post.
1. Piqqem is NOT social investing.. the average estimates of the public means nothing in terms of decision.
2. You mention Cake and Social Picks (Ha! SocialPicks closed the site my uninformed friend).
3. MarketGuru.com is the best site I know that can actually be called social investing.

By: Piqqem : Prediction market for prediction errors « Mixotricha

Piqqem : Prediction market for prediction errors « Mixotricha — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 20:05:07 +0000

[...] Piqqem : Prediction market for prediction errors Image via WikipediaA “prediction – prediction market“. That is what piqqem is. Does it makes sense to create a prediction market to predict the predictions of another prediction market? After all, that is what stock markets are : prediction markets. (see also the discussion by Erick Shonfeld on techcrunch) [...]

By: Jay Liao

Jay Liao — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 05:29:23 +0000

Crowds are like sheep, and sheep don’t always make good investments. http://tinyurl.com/48fntq

Our philosophy is a bit different. Rather than focus on stock picking, we’re developing analytical tools to help investors better manage their portfolio’s risk, to optimize their risk-return, and to find uncorrelated stock ideas to their portfolio. http://portfoliomonkey.com

By: Miranda

Miranda — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 20:58:23 +0000

It can be interesting to see what passes for “conventional” wisdom. Will everyone follow the crowd? And how accurate will they be? One of the things that makes this sort of social media Web site interesting is seeing how accurate things turn out to be — and adding your own voice to the mix. I’m a part of the Inner8 community, and I love how there’s a combination of total wisdom, and the ability to see individual results. I love making who has been accurate part of my research into the stock market. Of course, as mentioned above, a great deal of research into investments should come from a variety of sources.

By: AaronH

AaronH — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 16:08:14 +0000

I’m pretty sure that if there was a kid voting randomly he would be cancelled out by the other kids voting randomly.

The idea behind the Wisdom of Crowds (it’s not just a clever name, it’s theory with a book and everything) is that you NEED outliers who don’t know what they are doing and are doing it randomly. All of this ostensible “noise” adds up to a sum greater than the parts.

Again, no one knows for sure if it will work or not, but people voting badly isn’t a detriment, it’s practically required.

By: Calimoro

Calimoro — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 01:25:08 +0000

1. The wisdom of the crowds only works if every contributor acts independently from the crowd… Sort of blind vote. Clearly not the case here.

2. We are relying on the assumption that consensus drives prediction and hence better than the market returns. As any good VC knows, arbitrage opportunities are only where there is non-consensus, or disagreement on the future… If you are betting right.

3. A content and polling website can thrive even if its predictions do not work. Knowing where the public opinion is – however skewed – could be enough to generate interaction, content and a loyal audience.

By: Who Says the Crowd Has to Be Right?

Who Says the Crowd Has to Be Right? — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 23:00:10 +0000

By: Stephanie Gerson

Stephanie Gerson — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 17:50:51 +0000

@jim

#1 users CAN enter rumors/information on a financial timeline and the wiki for each stock (tabs for “timeline” and “wiki” are located underneath the graph on each stock page). but there’s no system for rating the correctness of users, though perhaps this is a feature that they’d consider implementing.

#2 an interesting proposal. but couldn’t the same be said for digg, StumbleUpon, even Wikipedia – that few users could essentially game the system? and yet governance evolves….

#3 Piqqem does, in fact, have a twitter feed: twitter.com/piqqem. or did you have something else in mind re FriendFeed/RagingBull?

and @everyone: keep in mind, Piqqem is not advertising crowd wisdom (or lack thereof) as a stand-alone source of financial information, but as one in a portfolio. the question of whether/under which circumstances/for which industries/etc. the crowd can predict stock movements more successfully than expert analysts/the market is still, in my mind, an open one!

ppp

By: Web 2.0 Sammelalbum - Web2Null - Piqqem

Web 2.0 Sammelalbum - Web2Null - Piqqem — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 17:23:12 +0000

[...] den Verlauf von bestimmten Aktienkursen denken und selbst Prognosen abgeben. http://www.piqqem.com via: TechCrunch "Piqqem" bookmarken oder [...]

By: Tom Hughes

Tom Hughes — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 15:32:34 +0000

The original poster has it right — the market itself is the best mechanism for crowdsourcing. There is a role for social media, though, but more along the lines of sideline commentary (http://www.wikinvest.com) and anonymized track-record sharing (www.covestor.com). The mysticism of the crowd-sourcing crowd will fade, but the era of internet-enabled team investing is just beginning. All those little-old-lady “investing clubs” are just getting online now.

By: David Forrest

David Forrest — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 14:56:10 +0000

I was surprised to see no mention of The Motley Fool’s CAPS in this article. I’m biased as I work for the company, but CAPS is easily the largest of the social stock picking applications, so it seems a bit lazy to miss it here.

So far, the star quintiles are performing in stairstep fashion, with the 5-star stocks far outperforming the market, and the 1-star stocks significantly underperforming the market.

By: Gavin Terrill

Gavin Terrill — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 14:18:22 +0000

Using the “wisdom of crowds” to predict a good stock would entail the crowd voting at the same time. As described, this seems more like it is simply tracking crowd sentiment/time.

By: Ori Matalon

Ori Matalon — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 11:24:50 +0000

makes sense to me – sounds like a very intersting idea! I would love to see a feature similar to “Power seller” on ebay, i.e., know that this user gave great predictions in the past.

my comments at http://www.commentino.com/orim

By: Oren

Oren — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 10:32:27 +0000

The crowd is a “crowd”. it does not lead – it follows. so asking the crowd where the “leaders” [inside information people, analysts, hedge funds, etc.] are taking it, is like asking a fish ןin a school of fish where the dolphin is heading. On the contrary to crowd stock picking, GStock at http://gstock.com uses a different approach to social power – it collects computing power from the crowd to form an immense simulator and uses it to detect stocks with higher probability to rise. It’s the power of the masses in the REAL sense of the word )

By: ANithian

ANithian — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 04:04:51 +0000

I find such a concept intriguing but I wouldn’t necessarily base investment decisions on this site. If any of you watch Mad Money (or read/listen to Jim Cramer) knows that he is not a fan of analysts who are paid to recommend stocks. Now having followed Cramer for a few years, I have also noticed that he himself is about 50/50 on his own stock picks to the audience. These are experts on the subject who are sometimes about as good as a coin toss so why is there so much bashing about novices getting together to pick stocks?

By: JoshK

JoshK — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 03:19:05 +0000

Couldn’t have said it better myself.

By: jtcarpenter

jtcarpenter — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 21:35:54 +0000

Sites like this are all doomed to failure. This was tried back during the dot com boom with sites like http://www.stockjungle.com and they all pretty much failed dismally then. Marketocracy has a better approach, although it also has its flaws. Relying on the crowd to choose investments is a sure fire way to either lose money or get mediocre performance. Stick to index funds or find a really smart and talented investor or trader that knows when to go with the crowd and, more importantly, when to go against it.

By: LK

LK — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 20:55:39 +0000

If this site works so well that it drives predictions back into the market then it certainly may no longer be useful – but the mere act of getting to that point will have already made it a multi-billion $ deal.

By: Gabe

Gabe — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 20:17:47 +0000

Not only that, but that best it can ever do is mirror the market. As soon as they have any success then more people will start using it which will drive the predictions back to market levels.

By: Comment on Can Piqqem Use The Crowd To Pick Stocks? Don’t Bet On … | forexrecommendation.com

Sat, 08 Nov 2008 18:22:16 +0000

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