Comments on: Peter Thiel’s Hedge Fund Enters Negative Territory In October

By: Como siguira la cosa en llullo.com

Como siguira la cosa en llullo.com — Sun, 07 Dec 2008 12:18:53 +0000

[...] Peter Thiel’s Hedge Fund Enters Negative Territory In October [...]

By: Debunkr

Debunkr — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 01:04:12 +0000

Hedge funds are not supposed to hedge against risk. It’s an understandable misreading of their titles. Hedge funds are investment pools only which may or may not hedge against risks. In fact, some hedge funds amplify risks. Without risk there is no reward. Without reward there is no hedge funds.

By: Bob

Bob — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 13:15:27 +0000

douchie comment.

http://quit.spa...ming.techcrunch

By: Bob

Bob — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 13:12:43 +0000

Hello! is there anybody in there?

There is NO investment that makes money in any type of market. None, zero, zilch.

RISK is associated with ANY type of return. Even money market funds showed earlier this year that there’s no such thing as risk-free investing.

There’s even risk in holding onto dollar bills (your mattress might catch fire).

By: josh

josh — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 03:28:44 +0000

yes, people who invest in cash.

By: josh

josh — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 01:19:58 +0000

yea the language is a bit confusing i missed it too

By: josh

josh — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 01:19:07 +0000

maybe they’ve sold and need to buy to cover? who knows what they’ll do.

By: steven

steven — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 21:26:16 +0000

When an investor like Thiel can’t make any money in this market, what chance do the rest of us have?

Hummm….I no professional, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn… How could we mere mortals actually make money in this economy?

1. Diversify. 81% is not diversification.

Clarium had 81 percent of its money in positions used by investors… such as for 10-year Treasury notes and 30-year bonds.

2. Invest in products with low sales and marketing costs.

3. Plan to invest for the long-term.

4. AND Do NOT LEVERAGE YOURSELF 4X!

If you went out and took all your credit cards and bought stock you’d be an idiot and a criminal. If you are a Hedge Fund manager – you just have a bad year… (BTW, The Gov’t outlawed investors borrowing to invest after the Depression.) But unregulated Hedge Funds have no such rules.

By: Alz

Alz — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 20:49:59 +0000

How do hedge funds work under Socialism?

By: Allan

Allan — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 19:00:14 +0000

No you wouldn’t. Inflation is growing faster than savings account interest payment and definitely mattress money. That means you lose purchasing power over time – your dollar under the mattress will buy you less tomorrow than today. In this environment, you HAVE to find a place to invest your money to at least keep up with inflation. It’s a tough world out there.

By: BeatenByJacks

BeatenByJacks — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 18:55:06 +0000

I am no investment expert, but I was under the impression that hedge funds are NOT supposed to hedge against risk like you described, Eric. If anything, they tend to be more risky than the S&P, so swinging less on the downside is pretty good. Investment experts feel free to correct me =).

By: さすがのピーター・ティールのヘッジファンドも10月はマイナスの領域入り

さすがのピーター・ティールのヘッジファンドも10月はマイナスの領域入り — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 18:25:09 +0000

[...] [原文へ] [...]

By: phenom

phenom — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 17:39:00 +0000

Good post.

http://vidsonly.blogspot.com

By: Marlo

Marlo — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 17:32:30 +0000

Erick, parts of your posts and some of your comments in response really highlight your lack of investing knowledge. Stick to start-ups.

By: Thread Pool

Thread Pool — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 17:00:48 +0000

Good link.
Your right it did narrow from .53 a month ago to .36 a week ago. But, it’s back up to .48 yesterday, so if he held on maybe he made some of that money back.

My question is: how do you go about getting the kind of leverage you need to cause your entire portfolio to go down by 18% based on these moves?

By: Tequila Al

Tequila Al — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 17:00:22 +0000

Thiel is a braniac, i love listening to the guy talk. Even when Mike interviewed him at TC50, it looked as if Mike was set back by what was rolling off the guys tongue. He most likely understands derivative, spreads, etc better than most. What i will say is that any investor has to hedge and when hedging, you must look for economic bubbles and short them. The two most obvious were oil and mortgages. Today’s biggest opportunity is Natural Gas because it is our future source of energy. I wasn’t aware of the opportunity until i did this marketing project for a client. http://www.star...ging.com/Hybon/

By: Andrei

Andrei — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 16:49:13 +0000

I've been trying to schedule a meeting to pitch UMapper to The Founders Fund but things have been extremely slow... Now I know why.

By: nitsuj

nitsuj — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 16:48:34 +0000

You can only sell if there’s a willing party to buy….

By: Tom

Tom — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 16:42:15 +0000

“When an investor like Thiel can’t make any money in this market, what chance do the rest of us have?”

Is there any successful investor who has never lost money?

By: juliejulie

juliejulie — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 16:36:36 +0000

I know a guy who manages to beat the market every year. He’s UN-leveraged.

By: Erick Schonfeld

Erick Schonfeld — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 16:19:06 +0000

Maybe so. But his particular bet was on the spread between 30-year T-bills and 10-year T-bills. That spread is narrowing:

http://finance....site_bond_rates

By: mikep

mikep — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 16:16:30 +0000

ah yes – reading it again, it does make sense, thanks!

By: Erick Schonfeld

Erick Schonfeld — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 16:14:33 +0000

From the Bloomberg story linked to above:

“Thiel, who manages $5.2 billion, trades everything from stocks to commodities, seeking to profit from broad economic trends, a strategy known as macro investing. Such funds lost 1.27 percent last month and have risen in value by 1.3 percent this year, according to HFR in Chicago. ”

So he is underperforming hedge funds with the same style of investing.

By: Erick Schonfeld

Erick Schonfeld — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 16:12:02 +0000

If you are not trying to make money in this market or any market, then you are better off putting your money in a mattress.

By: Thread Pool

Thread Pool — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 16:11:44 +0000

Strange. I just read a article on the WSJ yesterday about how the long/short yield spread has been widening, and how that signals a long recession. In a recovery the short term rates will begin to rise, and the spread will lessen, at least according to the WSJ article.

They even had a chart that showed the spread increasing dramatically over the last few months.