The U.S. Election isn’t until tomorrow, but doesn’t it already seem like Obama has won? That is certainly the impression you get if you look at any of the polls, state-by-state electoral maps, or prediction markets out there. Even the latest Fox News poll has Obama leading McCain by 50 percent to 43 percent.
My favorite prediction tool, and the one with the best record of getting elections right, is the Iowa Electronic Markets. In its winner-take-all market for the U.S. Presidential election, it is predicting that Obama has an 89 percent chance of winning the majority of votes (see graph above). NewsFutures, similarly puts Obama’s chances of winning at 90 percent, and Intrade has his stock trading at 90.6.
All the traditional telephone polls similarly show Obama in the lead, especially those that bother to call people on their cell phones. But you cannot really trust those polls. They are notoriously wrong. It is better to look at state-by-state breakdowns projected onto an electoral map. The New York Times, for instance, has Obama clearing at least 291 electoral votes to McCain’s 163 (he needs 270 to win):
The NYT also has a nice interactive graph that shows all the major poll results and how they’ve changed over time. Again, I trust markets over polls any day, and it is interesting to note that in another Iowa Electronic market predicting the share of the vote each candidate will get, it is predicting a closer race than even Fox. Right now, it has Obama winning 53 percent of the vote compared to 47 percent for McCain.
Remember, those numbers can literally change overnight. And the only poll that counts is the one taken in the election booth.
Interesting. It does look like this thing is already over. I hope he provides us with the change we need.
I wouldn’t hope for much, politicians always disappoint.
well if you didn’t vote for change , how politicians will change ?
114 reasons to vote for obama on bloggersmosaic.com…give it a look to vote!
Obama won’t deliver – he’s a pro-capitalist politician and won’t do anything to harm this – why would have got so many campaign donations from large corporations if he was going to change anything.
The working class need their own political party, unions must break from the democrats and support the calls to set one up. This party would fight for the interests of the working class – state provided universal healthcare, wage rises automatically with inflation, nationalisation under workers control of industry.
http://www.work...66,1760,0,0,1,0
how about just dont make us a mark for Islamists
I wouldn’t count on it. One thing people fail to remember is that it takes years for changes to take effect and Americans are incredibly impatient. If the economy isn’t fixed by 2 pm on Thursday, people will be calling for his head.
Also, remember he is a politician. Call me cynical but they will say and do anything to get elected.
“If the economy isn’t fixed by 2 pm on Thursday, people will be calling for his head” — No, “They” [you mean, We Americans?] will not do that, because “he” the “Messiah” will not be the president of the US, although he is already redecorating the white house and planning how his daughters will grow there… *NOT*
Obama has lost already! Blame the Bradley effect [which, by the way, is wonderful!!!]
Well gosh i guess i won’t vote now. Oh wait!…
Erick, you forgot to mention the Bradley/Wilder/Dinkins effect, which may actually diminish the Obama advantage by an average of 10 points… If this happens again, and there is a real chance that it will, McCain-Palin will win.
The Bradley effect is nonsense in this one. The only people that are talking about it are the nut jobs like you that are blinded by the GOP bull.
@Jmartens chillax there guy. Anthony may be a pessimistic democrat who has seen nothing but disappointment since clinton left office.
I too hope it does not exist, but I also thought we would never go to war in iraq, and bush would never have been elected twice. now i refuse to believe it until its over.
Why? Obama IS black and the majority of real voters are white and conservative. Polls are BS, so Obama has already lost!
Although ignored and overlooked by so many, the “Bradley” effect did happen, not only to him but also to Doug Wilder in Virginia and David Dinkins in NY City. They were all stunned by their unexpected, sound defeat.
I am afraid that it will happen tomorrow, and Obama will lose, although he already see himself in the White House.
Then, there is the unresolved fact of his American citizenship – The governor of Hawaii has refused to release his birth certificate: which may be from Kenya or just not exist…
OMG, and let me guess, this suzanne also thinks that all jews were forewarned about 9/11 and didn’t show up to work. The conspiracy theories just keep pouring. Man, the ignorance. For Doug Wilder, read my other comment, you are dead wrong. Nothing to with Bradley. I was there.
GOP Bull? Don’t forget the DEM Bull: Google the “Community Reinvestment Act of 1977″ – Enacted by Carter (Dem) in 1977, strengthened by Clinton in 1993 (Dem), and defended by Dodd, Kerry, Franks and Obama (all Dems) over the past several years as Greenspan (former head of Fed Reserve Bank), Bush and McCain all warned of the inevitable collapse of risky loans that Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac were guaranteeing.
THAT, my friends, is a HUGE load of Bull… especially when Obama now blames the financial crisis on Bush and McCain! We won’t get into the fact that Finance Committee members Dodd and Obama were the highest recipients of campaign funds from Fannie/Freddie, over $200,000 EACH. This election is for sale… Do NOT buy into it!
God Bless America.
Erick, your post is incomplete and one-sided.
Please, for everyone’s sake, stay close to reality:the Bradley effect is persistently ignored, but the truth *in most elections* is that white, conservative voters plus independents on this one [about 60%] will not vote for a black candidate, let alone one that has promised to implement so many negative and disastrous “changes” for our country: over-taxation, wealth “spreading”, radical, socialist changes to our health care system, withdrawal of our troops from Iraq and Afghanistan with the resultant defeat, “good” relations with socialists foreign leaders as the president of Iran, Hugo Chavez, etc.
Please, guys, WAKE UP!!!! Obama is proposing a “change” to disaster!!!
The only reason McCain has a chance is because he is white and Obama is black. As for Obama the only reason he has a chance is because Bush was that bad. So basically if McCain wins it says that the majority of American are still stuck on race. If Obama wins it is because the magority of Americans are poor without jobs, healthcare and their kids can’t even name the capital of their own country.
It has nothing to do with issues. Niether of Obama or MacCain has a chance in hell to fix what is wrong. The war in Iraq costs to much money and you can’t win it. Read “The Prince.” It explains how taking over another nation is next to impossible. You have to basically perform acts of violence so horrific people will be afraid to fight back which is why it worked in Japan. The only people who won anything from the war are the Oil companies and the companies that make the weapons. What benifet did the average joe get expect higher gas prices? You can’t just pend 400 billion dollars and not expect it to hurt a little back home. It will take a long, long time to recover from the war in Iraq. Nobody can change that.
My grammar sucks sorry…
It is not only your grammar, it is the fact that you don’t know what you are talking about — As a dumb Canadian, you should keep your mouth shut.
And another thing: the First Amendment applies *ONLY* to American citizens.
Yah I am Canadian and a lot of us Canadians care a great deal about the states. A lot of us Canadians when we travel defend America. We say don’t judge America until you have been to the states and see the really good things they have done for our world.
There has never been an election the world as a whole has cared about more than the one tomorrow. Why is that Anne?
Attack my points because if you come after me I will rip you to shreds. Any time….
I would not call out McCain so soon though,
especially with obamas socialist policy’s
with the current economic crisis, the last thing we need is to destroy jobs by attacking successful business owners, I mean, Spread the wealth,
Regardless of race, anyone who thinks they can throw other peoples money at the problem should not be in office, we should focus on solutions for businesses, and thereafter, jobs…
and I think abortion is wrong, which Is why I greatly disagree with obama being in office, Nothing to do with his skin color, just the fact that he supports giving everyone the choice of murder.
Hitler promised the Germans a better economy and that he gave them, and then he changed the way they treated the jews, Just saying…
WOW! What a sexist retard! Please stay where you are, you imbecile!
Your childish attitude does not help other Canadians — Butt out!!!
Wait a second here! This type of clueless Canadians are helpful… Although a loser, Obama uses them ot lick his half-black ass!!!
I second gebadia smith and share his views even though I am American.
@Anne – Get a life please. This is not the place for racistic slur!
YEA RiiGHT WE NOW HAVE A BLCK “PRESiiDENT” AND WE DO NEED A CHANGE LYK HE SAID YI MEAN OBAMA ALL DAY NOW HEZ iiN DAT WHiiTE HOUZE AND HEZ GONNA DO DA DAMN THANG….. YA DiiGG!!!!
obama obama obama….. OBAMA
If the Bradley effect was in play then how did he win the primaries? The fact is he has won votes already so why can’t he win one more?
If Palin McCain wins we are all going to go to hell
Speak for yourself.
Excuse me?? Obama won’t even offer medical care for a dying infant who was just aborted by some hack doctor, I’m sorry but that takes a monster! Late term abortions are an abination, but to allow the baby who some how survives this deplorable act, to be killed as he/she lay there helplessly, trust me that will get you to hell. Think about it, if Obama wins our own government will OUTLAW bringing aid to a baby that is still alive from a botched abortion!! God help us.
God is already helping us! Most socialist liberals [including many here] want true Americans to believe that *it is all over* but the reality is that Obama has lost already.
And, remember this: all the liberal pundits and the usual suspects will shout out loud tomorrow stating that Obama is the winner… The same way that they did in 2004 when they announced that John Kerry was the President elect!!!! Fat chance!!!
There is no old man in the sky that sends dead people to hell. In fact, there is no hell at all. It was invented by Jews/Christians/Muslims.
Please stick to the facts.
“the reality is that Obama has lost already.”
So you’re confessing to Republican voter supression and illegal vote counting tactics? That’s basically the only way the polling data can be overcome.
Good to know the truth is coming out.
Anne, why are you even on this blog? Do you really believe that coming in here and spewing your idiotic hatred is going to change anyone’s minds on anything? You can be here, certainly, but I don’t understand why you’re here. You are irrational and small minded and everyone knows you can’t argue with anyone who has GOD on their side.
To get comments, all you need to do is a post on politics. However quantity is inversely related to quality.
Erick, is this blog sweeps week?
Don’t jinx this! ><
Did Obama win yet? More like did McCain lose yet?
http://www.didm...ainloseyet.com/
I think in a few years, if Obama wins, you will regret voting for “change”. Bush may be an idiot, but at least he wasn’t Carter. Obama has similar policies and that is pretty scary.
Before you blow me off as stupid. My Masters is in Economics.
hadn’t realised that all you have to do is brandish an academic qualification in order to be taken seriously round here. In that case, please note that I have an MA in English Lit.
if you think Bush was a better president than Carter, you’re crazier than either of them. Carter might have been incompetent, but at least he didn’t preside over eight years of hegemonous tyranny emanating from an administration who sought to export democracy overseas even while they rode roughshod over its most basic principles at home. nor, for that matter, was Carter in power for the eight years preceding the greatest financial crisis to confront the USA since the Great Depression.
Obama won’t be anywhere near perfect. No-one ever is. But at least for the first time in a long time you’ve mustered a candidate who looks like he means it.
Of course, and Obama is not capable of telling lies, right?
Actually, he does every time he opens his mouth… You are so naive.
Obviously, your MA in English does hot help you to improve your thinking.
right, an MA in a field that sets its own standards of excellence is comparable to a testable science.
right.
Sure, things could be better now…but Carter’s presidency was abysmal.
-Hostages in captivity
-Double digit inflation
-Raging Cold War – Asia, Central America, Eastern Europe
To this day, I wish President Carter would have some respect for the Office and just build Habitat homes and write his poetry. I’ll give him credit for being instrumental in bringing about peace in regards to Israel and Egypt. But all in all his presidency is viewed as basically a failure.
I glad you are standing up to these racist tech wanna bees. Maybe your users should know how you feel about monitories.
I’m no Bush fan but this is hard to argue,
Bush:
1% prime lending rate-almost free money
4.4% inflation rate
6% mortgage rates
35% top income tax
Carter:
21.5% prime rate! Try startin’ that start up
13.5% inflation!
19% mortgage rates!
70% top income tax!(what the f***!)
How do you like them apples, Dan?
P.S. The only thing Carter didn’t have were Credit Default Swaps and Barney Frank and Chris Dodd stopping reform on Fannie and Freddie:)
yeah, so is Paul Krugman.
Ya, but Paul won a Daytime Emmy !!!!
Imbecile. Sounds like your MA is in home economics!
i bloody hope so!
It is important nobody calls the election too early or many voters may decide to not vote, which could dramatically alter the results.
Also look out for these types of voter suppression:
http://www.vote...sion+Documented
i say its over and im a conservative. im preparing for America to bend over and start taking it hard and long from the liberals. but people want change so they will get it.
Because America has always gone to the pits during liberal presidencies, right? Oh, no actually.
obama’s plans are very VERY similar to carter’s. need i say more?
oh stu, just cuz your a wonk, does not mak you any more credible.
The republicans should have more sense to rally around and old man and a moron.
change or no change. Palin is a terrible candidate and the rep are going to pay for that strategy.
I will pay too – but it is worth it.
Palin a moron? Ask the former leaders of Alaska how stupid she is. Ask her opponents in the Gov. debates. She is a charmer, sure, be she’s also a savvy politician with a keen eye for doing the right thing for the people.
I think its funny how people buy what the media is selling year after year…
Dude…she couldn’t name a singe newspaper she reads and believes that the war in Iraq is a mission from god.
That is moronic.
“oh stu, just cuz your a wonk, does not mak you any more credible.”
Just out of curiosity, do you feel the same way about your doctor being a “wonk” in medicine?
Please keep the witticism coming, that was a good one!
Don’t get ahead of yourself. While Obama is currently in control, there is a big, BIG, question mark in Pennsylvania.
If McCain can pull the upset in Pa then I expect him to win. Winning Pa means that McCain hit it out of the park with white, rural voters. This bodes well for McCain in Ohio and Indiana also (same demographics in play there also).
Florida is over, McCain wins that one. North Carolina? Probably also McCain.
I think Obama’s comment about crushing the coal industry by taxing them into bankruptcy might be the stake that kills him in western PA. That, coupled with John Murtha basically calling everyone in western Pa a racist doesn’t help either.
It is a long shot, but it is not over.
Absolutely correct! Finally, someone that is actually using his brains!
Congrats!
Obama has lost already!!!!!
hmm.. the mine workers union says something else
http://www.umwa...act-desperation
Thats because theyre union. They cant bite the hand that feeds them (boss leaders), duh.
@j 2 the B – You mean the same plan that McCain supports?
“Climate Policy Should Utilize A Market-Based Cap And Trade System.”
http://www.john.../ClimateChange/
If Fox has the race at 50-43 (+7 Obama) and IEM has the race at 53-47 (+6 Obama) then the IEM is not significantly closer, it’s nearly identical. Or am I looking at the wrong Fox poll?
You are right — the “bradley” effect will work again, it is just a fact of life in our country. The Obama camp has been scared to death because of it.
They expected to be ahead by at least 10 points to win, which is not happening…
Your retarded
Just take this for what it is: the expectations on the eve of the election.
Anything can still happen. The outcome is in your hands. Go vote.
Erick,
I agree, the power is in the voting booth. I have never missed the opportunity to vote. It is a fundamental right which i adore as an American and take very seriously.
I never believe any polls regarding politics. I never turn on the radio or tv on election day, or go to internet websites that are news related. I just go into the booth and do what I believe.
Then we can count where the chips all fall. Counting them beforehand is irresponsible.
“technology” might actually be what determines who wins in a race this close. People might get lazy and not exercise their right to vote based upon all these polls. Polls are indicators with lot’s of variables. I never have and never will trust their accuracy.
Cheers and God Bless our right to vote any way we see fit.
As I recall a Kerry contract was as high as 70 on Intrade during the 2004 elections… I’m not sure markets are any better than polls for election results. College basketball results, sure.
Financial polls, which get their data from investors [two out of three American voters] placed McCain-Palin ahead by an average of 7 points in the past four days.
I have about as much confidence in polls as I do the American electorate.
here is my favorite “poll” http://www.7-election.com/
You are not American, so your “favorite poll” and also your opinions are not only irrelevant but also worthless. Please shut up.
To “antje wilsch,” “Gebadia Smith” and others here who are not American and do not live in the US, your opinions and comments amount to only a perverse game.
We know that you want Obama to win, but it is irrelevant, We know that you hate the US and you hate Americans although you are desperate to come and live here.
Please butt out.
Obama will not be the next president of the US.
Are you this much of an ignorant bitch in real life?
Someone needs a nap.
I’m pretty sure everyone in the world has the right to express their opinions on this election; considering the United States has already invaded two countries, and is currently ignoring the sovereignty of two others.
Whether or not the United States is right or wrong in these invasions is another debate in itself.
However, I’m pretty sure everyone in the world has a right to be concerned about who becomes the next president of the United States.
Personally, I’d like to see ignorant people such as yourself get the boot. Maybe then, this country wouldn’t be in the turmoil it is today.
Moving on…
Palin as president? Now that’s just a big joke. Glad to see feminist hype overshadow what’s good for the country. Just because Hillary would have made a good president, doesn’t mean we need to suddenly start looking for women in politics to become our next VP.
I don’t consider myself a Republican or Democrat. I vote for who would make the best president. While Obama was discussing ways in which this country can better itself, McCain was busy trying to fool Americans into thinking Obama was making terrorist connections at the age of 7.
McCain made my vote easy – a shame, considering I actually enjoyed listening to him speak with reason, before announcing his bid. Apparently Acorn is more important than multiple wars, a rising national deficit, a failing infrastructure, terrible foreign policy, among many other things.
I heard Obama’s stance, as did the rest of America, which is the reason why he now leads in the polls.
Joe the Plumber won’t swing my vote. Basing a campaign around sympathy for someone who makes a quarter of a million dollars, while people are starving to death. Now that, I find hilarious.
I wouldn’t want to live in a place where you can be found as a neighbour; pls. tune in to something else than Fox News. You are not that hated, and not that desirable either.
Anne, live in America? Earn a crap wage in a country with a worryingly low level of education, that is more or less a cultural vaccuum. Umm, not thanks. I’ll stay in the UK, but I will continue to visit your country once Bush is out.
Your election is of interest to us here. Generally, we’re indifferent to Americans but being as the last ‘leader’ dragged us into an unwinnable war and has presided over an economical f**kup near beyond compare, which has now affected our previously sound economy, we take an interest in this election of yours. Media circus or otherwise.
Ben
That site only proves that Obama supporters drink more bad coffee than McCain supporters
I am American, why do you think I’m not? Because my name is -oooo- different? I have dual citizenship. So I can vote for you and in Germany, where I live currently (leaving the US after 16 years). Both have good points and bad points, but xenophobes like you in either country are what get us into wars. And my first amendment rights are protected
rock on.
Are you angry because of that funny little site? Poor Anne. So angry & sad on election day.
And another thing: the First Amendment applies *ONLY* to American citizens.
no
You are right… even the illegal aliens and tourists may enjoy the First Amendment protection.
It does not say anything about who it applies to, But my honest oppionion is the bill of rights covers americains with citizenship, but other groups are allowed to say what they want because Americans give them privilege of doing so, and are less likely to impede them, then the Chinese would about a certain square.
The thing about the laws of a nation are that they apply to that nation. If you go to Saudi Arabia you must live by their laws or you get arrested and beaten. Now, take a deep breath, drop your ridiculous preconceptions, and apply that same concept to the laws of the US.
Do you see your error now, or do you need to be hit harder over the head before reality sinks in? Everyone in the US, citizen or not, must follow the laws of that nation, including laws that apply to protected speach. This is so obvious that to deny it implies you failed elementary school.
ya know how american startups are shedding employees waay faster than european ones? the difference is an obama tax plan
Right on.
A tax plan that lowers their taxes and gives a benefit for hiring employees is causing a company to lose employees? What are you smoking?
Honestly i could care less who wins. It’s going to be extremely funny if the O-man doesn’t pull it out. I have lots of popcorn ready in the event he doesn’t. Talk about reality television !!
Great! I can bring a case of beer and a bottle of Jagermeister!
What’s up with “even fox” comments… don’t be such a whore for the New York Times.
Have you forgotten that one election…. oh when every news station said Gore won before he did. And the only channel that got right… Fox news. Yet fox is the one without credibility. Come on.. don’t be such idealogue.
“don’t be such idealogue” You are such a kind soul. I would replace it with “clueless ignorant” or “brainless uninformed socialist liberal”
the day america elects a woman or a non-white to office will be an unbelievable and unreal day, literally. dream on. remember we only ask that you do as I say not as I do. what was the last treaty that us actually ratified? when was the last time US actually followed a UN resolution? fools.
Oh yes, the US is a horrible country because the president is not a woman and is not black, plus, the US refuses to be screwed by the communist fools at the UN and also by those creating those “treaties” that blame the US for everything going wrong around the world….
And still, millions of idiots are desperate to come live here in the US.
But enoug is enough, Bush may not be a bright man but he has been instrumental in the tightening of our ports and airports to the point that thousands of suspicious foregners [like yourself] have been kept away…
Thank God!
Wow! You are not to bright. You just said you rather have a dumb person as president than a black person. Bravo this is why people have a problem with American.
keep saying it you fool and keep clicking those heels, dorothy ain’t going home anytime soon. There is no place like home, There is no place like home. And wait, when home is not good enough we will go open up GITMO cause there is no place like home, and perhaps some more secret cells in europe. If it was about US we would have elected a president by popular vote and not electoral college. Its not the country that is horrible, its what ignorant fools such as yourself have turned it into.
“Rig Mala” is your real name? It fits, because you don’t know what you are talking about!
As Anne commented above:
“To “antje wilsch,” “Gebadia Smith” and others here who are not American and do not live in the US, your opinions and comments amount to only a perverse game.
We know that you want Obama to win, but it is irrelevant, We know that you hate the US and you hate Americans although you are desperate to come and live here.
Please butt out.
Obama will not be the next president of the US.”
Selye…. hmm, i am guessing eastern european, nothing to do with US or Americans. Pablo Escobar was more of an “american” than you shall ever be. And as for Anne,,,,,hmmmmmm clearly from across the pond. The ignorance becomes you, when you chose to define the nationality with a person’s name. Half of you are descendants of kunta kinte, the other Sitting Bull, whether you admit to it or not.
Palin’s russian auntie is illegal in the US!
Erick, I thought you might be interested in this: http://tinyurl.com/62zq69 – I downloaded the Intrade data and compared it to the Dow Jones Index. The results is a reasonably clear correlation between the two markets. So DJ would need to get back to 11 or 12K for McCain to have a 50/50 chance
All of the polls and all of this online nonsense don’t mean anything until someone is actually elected. Shut up and vote, I say.
@Peter Hahahahaha — Another clueless foreigner: Of course you don’t know it, but this is called “free speech” and the “free exchange of ideas” something that you do not have in your fourth world country… or jungle, slum, whatever.
um, I’m pretty sure Peter is not a foreigner.
That makes you a bigot and an asshole, Mercer. Peter said nothing to justify your mindless reactionary attack.
Had no idea the State of New York was a fourth world country and that it made me a foreigner. You learn something new every day.
“All of the polls and all of this online nonsense don’t mean anything until someone is actually elected. Shut up and vote, I say.”
Peter really sounds like an Obama “enforcer” — “Shut up and vote” and do not participate in any discussion? Who are you?
You *maybe* in New York but you certainly sound like a mindless foreigner.
@JTK — a “reactionary attack” Go ahead and call Mercer a “racist” so you complete the picture of a clueless socialist liberal.
OBAMA HAS LOST ALREADY!!!!!
The saddest part is how ignorant some of you Americans really are. Just because the guy’s name is Peter HA (emphasis on his last name), you assume he is not white (Asian maybe?) and then further assume because he is not white, he is not American. And then go on to “deduce” that if he is not American, he MUST be from no, not possibly another developed country, or even, gasp, a third world nation, but a 4th world scum jungle of a country! wow, is that what they teach you in American schools nowadays?
Just putting aside for one tiny minute the millions of non-white born in the USA Americans (whether black, hispanic, asian, etc.), how about maybe Peter is a naturalized American citizen, so has just as much a right to comment as any other american does?
But it doesn’t even matter where Peter really comes from, the nail on your coffin must surely be the ridiculous string of assumptions you made to go from a last name “Ha” to a “deduction” of foreigner from a 4th world scum country.
Like I said, I’m not American and people like you saying things like you do just makes me all the more glad I am not (no offense to the other sensible Americans out there, and i know you are out there too).
If Mercer needs someone to defend his bigotry then he’s already lost, and so has his little buddy.
I am sure you would say the same thing if McCain was winning right! Right racist.
If “the only poll that counts is the one taken in the election booth” then why are you “reporting” this piece of fluff?
OBAMANOS!!!!!
UP front, u should know I am voting Democratic in this Presidential race. Now, Obama is a very smart guy, book & street. He knows he can not run over the Republicans once in power and he will keep Reed and Nancy in line. Chances are he will rule just a smidge left of center once in office. While he will inspire and he will lead change, it wil come in small turn of the dial over time. Anything more than that and the population will self correct and boot out Democrats in the House and Senate in 2010.
WOW!!! You must be from another planet, and already drunk on the Messiah’s poisonous Kool-Aid!!!
If elected –it WILL NOT HAPPEN, Obama will destroy the American economy and *change* the country into a poor, socialist third world one!
OBAMA HAS LOST ALREADY!!! The Bradley effect is already working…
Wow – this is the first TechCrunch post where I am completely saddened by the stupidity of the commenters. Not only do a large majority of you lack the basic skills to engage in a civil political conversation, you don’t know how to dissect media bias, and have no idea what polls do or do not mean. I am very disappointed. Why don’t we all simply choose civility and thoughtful debate? It’s what our Founding Fathers wanted — all of them.
Wow – this is the first TechCrunch post where I am completely saddened by the ignorance of the commenters. Not only do a large majority of you lack the basic skills to engage in a civil political conversation, you don’t know how to dissect media bias, and have no idea what polls do or do not mean. I am very disappointed. Why don’t we all simply choose civility and thoughtful debate? It’s what our Founding Fathers wanted — it is the best way for us to climb out of the nightmare we find ourselves in today.
I agree with you. I heard a lot of hate. This is the reason why we are in the mess we are in. We don’t have to agree but don’t be a bigot.
Ditto.
However, in the end, all this noise does not matter: most people here are either foreigners or uninformed drones that closely follow the socialist liberal media. They want for president a nobody with no experience or a track record who came from nowhere, with grand, ominous socialist dreams. He is for *change* to what? disaster of course!
But, don’t worry the real American voters who count are white conservatives… and most reasonable people know what that means…
Yes, it most reasonable people know that white conservatives is code for racists.
There you go again! The knee-jerk response from a clueless Obama drone that is not able to hink and offer a coherent response due to a small onanist brain [frequent masturbator if you don't know the meaning...]
You all socialist liberals will be crying by tomorrow at this time!
OBAMA HAS ALREADY LOST!!! The Bradley effect works again!! [I love this]
You guys don’t even know the real definition of “socialism” and you throw it around like that.
For God’s sake: Even a Socialist candidate for President from the -Socialist- Party doesn’t think he’s a socialist.
http://www.sfga...;entry_id=32219
And where did I mention politics at all, Selye? I think you jump to conclusions too quickly and go into attack mode. This is called being a reactionary. It means you act before you think.
The comment was clearly deserving of a little taking down, and gave you not the slightest idea of my political leanings. Your comment says far more about your fears then you might realize.
‘LOOKS’ like a landslide, but we know how these things can change in a hurry and knowing how shady the voting process is in this country, we could see anything tomorrow.
** No landslide, just enough votes to get McCain to the White House and bury the Messiah into oblivion.
It will not be that easy, because hundreds of lawsuits are ready to be filed by tomorrow evening — a la Al Gore four years ago… The bloated fool still introduces himself as “I used to be the President of The United States” –What an idiot!
Because of the Bradkey effect, Obama is crying already… Although he will not go away peacefully. He truly believes that he *deserves* to be in the White House.
Erick, please do not let your liberal bias show. The NYT is a left-wing news source and can’t be seriously quoted to convey objective news. Also, Fox News, while being the only non-liberal news outlet, is not a right-wing organization. It is simply the only news source that shows the conservative point of view along with the democrat point of view.
Of course. Most grown-up real Americans already know it.
Obama is toast already: the Bradley effect works again…
You really should look into what educated people who know something about the Bradley effect have to say, and base your opinions on the true Bradley effect instead of the artificial one you have inside your mind.
McCain will win like Bush did in 04.
Most probably, if you mean *legally* and winning the electoral vote, not the way Al Gore wanted to change the rules in order to get to the White House.
I still maintain it’s not an election, but a referendum on stupidity. On one side of the butterfly ballot is yes, the other side is no. Will Americans balls it up one more time?
McCain 08!
Ditto, my man!!!!
I agree that it’s a referendum on stupidity. No one in their right mind could vote for Palin. McCain had my vote before he picked up that brainless uneducated right wing radical for VP.
I already voted for Obama.
I just thought I’d point out that this forum is filled with the dumbest, ignorant, most fucked-in-the-head, can’t spell, can’t read, can’t name a country other than our own, worst-of-america idiots I’ve ever seen on the internet.
You’re that fucking stupid.
you got that right!
@benjwah — Of course, your opinion includes the pathetic “Not an American and Proud of it!”
What a foreign prick!
To all those Americans whining about “foreigners” as you like to call it expressing their views:
Until your beloved country stops butting it’s nose into the affairs of almost every other country out there (Iraq war, Afghanistan, need I go on?), the affairs of the US and certainly the president are very much a concern of non-Americans as well.
It just so happens that many people outside of the US are not insular like apparently the scores inside it who seem to think the whole world is just your one US of A and nothing else.
before you go blaming Iraq on Bush, you the Americans voted him in, not once but twice. So stand up for once and take some responsibility for the mess that war is, and don’t just blame Bush. If you were so smart, why did you vote for him? Maybe not you individually but you are a country. So you only have yourselves to blame.
the plain fact of it is that America sneezes and the whole world catches a cold (sometimes), so american affairs are very much whole world affairs. Get over it.
Dumb foreigners without a name like yourself are clueless idiots. To quote Anne, above:
To “antje wilsch,” “Gebadia Smith” and others here who are not American and do not live in the US, your opinions and comments amount to only a perverse game.
We know that you want Obama to win, but it is irrelevant, We know that you hate the US and you hate Americans although you are desperate to come and live here.
Please butt out.
Obama will not be the next president of the US. Mark my words!!!
sigh, you sir, as a “true american”, just further serve to prove my point. are there really no americans with a real brain on here that will stand up and tell your fellow countrymen without brains to go back to school and just shut up and stop embarrassing your country further?
Yeap! Another pathetic comment from a homosexual clueless foreigner!!!
Dumb ass!
When a person goes straight to the homosexual foriegner card, they’ve admitted that there is no intellectually honest way to make their point and go straight to the bullshit. If you have anything worthwhile to add you would have done it, so now you will come back with another clueless kindergarten insult.
USA, USA, USA, USA!!!!! All together now. Oh wait, is that not what we are doing. Rallying around our great nation to show our strength via angry comments. Back to chanting, USA, USA, USA!!!!!!!!
OBAMA Turkey Teşekkürler.
İşte İnternet
On “change”:
The idea of exercising executive power to institute social and economic “change” under the presumption of hindsight is a dangerous affront to the doctrine of balance-of-power that is the heart and soul of American Government.
It is more than a bit ironic that the very candidate — a former professor of constitutional law — who opposed the invasion of Iraq as an irresponsible exercise of executive power, has run an entire campaign on the very idea of the-presidency-as-a-vehicle-for-change.
The prerogative to institute “change” belongs to private enterprise, to private citizens, and to the legislature — not the executive branch. On January 20, 2009 the next President of the United States will take an oath to “support and defend the Constitution of the United States”. Social engineering is not part of the job description.
Voters should ask themselves what kind of “change” they are signing up for before casting their ballots.
-ekc
“Voters should ask themselves what kind of “change” they are signing up for before casting their ballots.”
Many of us have already and we are voting for *our country* –Country First!!! McCain-Palin all the way!!!
BTW Excellent, clear and sober comment. Congrats. You are a true thinking patriotic American.
Please feel free to copy, edit, and re-post elsewhere under your handle.
-ekc
** I would, but it would be removed in a matter or seconds. You know why and by whom…
This dude “Not an American and Proud of it!” certainly sounds like a stinky homosexual towel head that got his sorry ass kicked somewhere in some third world swamp…
He must show up here at TC to lick ass,,, Pathetic loser.
another one…. how nice. really? no americans with brains on here? just crazy white racists staring at their own behinds all day like charlie and sam mallory?
The little bitch just admitted to being banned under his real handle, so that tells you something.
Stupid republicans. Keep chanting the ‘Bradley’ mantra to yourself if it helps you sleep tonight; I seriously doubt you’re changing anyone’s mind with your silly comments here, but the silver lining is that it means that you were too lazy to get your fat asses out of the house to do anything that would actually help McLame win. Can’t wait till Wednesday morning you’ll be crying into your bowl of fibre-enhanced cheerios.
There you go again! Another frustrated homo socialist liberal Obama ass licking loser… You are pathetic clueless drones….
OBAMA HAS LOST ALREADY!!! The Bradley effect works again!! [I love this]
“socialist”? man…someone watch Faux. It’s the 21st century already. Do your own research. Don’t listen to others. If you don’t know where to start, let me help you. Hint: the Internet. Someone supports his/her candidate and you labeled them as “ass licking loser”…
Do you live in a world where everybody who has an opinion that differs from you must be a retard, or an idiot that must be ignored ? If so, you would have voted in the National Socialist Party back in the day.
Keep proving my point for me Fred. Clearly calling you a fat ass cut you deep.
This guy “crispy” doesn’t know what the ‘Bradley’ effect is and he is so dumb that would not look it up: c’mon you homo Obama drone… visit Wikipedia.com and you will learn something today, for a change.
From a previous comment by Suzanne:
“Although ignored and overlooked by so many, the “Bradley” effect did happen, not only to him but also to Doug Wilder in Virginia and David Dinkins in NY City. They were all stunned by their unexpected, sound defeat.” –white voters refusing to vote for a black man. For this election, it would be a “half-black with no experience or any true accomplishments, socialist liberal who wandts to ’spread the wealth’ of successful hard-working Americans and over tax Americans into a poor third world country”
Losers like “Crispy” behave like white suburban teens imitating dudes from the ‘hood and listening to black rap — while not having the faintest idea of its meaning. All they care is that Obama is black and he is promising “change,” It is like jumping off a cliff just for the sake of it…
OBAMA HAS LOST ALREADY!!! The Bradley effect is already working…
Hey ‘Charlie’, if Obama has already lost, why are you still here? Why the ALL CAPS? Shit scared? I hope so
Oh by the way, I’m 43, I don’t listen to rap, and I’m 99.9% sure that I have both more education and money than you. But keep trying, I find your desparation really amusing…
Doug wilder had other issue you dork. if you are going to reference events, atleast do your homework, fact check, before you shoot your mouth off. Nothing do with bradley effect. And for the record, last I checked VA is south of mason-dixon line.
I don’t think you guys have a ban hammer, but if you do, I nominate Charlie [American].
He already admitted his actual handle is banned, so its just a matter of time before it catches up with him.
Wow, never knew TC was commented read by so many F**ckin tards. What the fuck is up with all these sore Republicans? ass bruised? seriously this shit has turned me off from reading anymore comments or deeming any comments left behind on TC Worthless.
you know it. already OBAMA/BIDEN 08 BITCHES!
It makes me wonder if half of them are one person’s many personalities.
I think Obama will win because it makes good sense to elect him. Americans are not just “consumers”, although we tend to talk about ourselves that way. Even religious conservatives have their reasons to vote for McCain.
But the fact is, this time around, the Republicans don’t have much to say. The “small government” message seems contrived, because the leaders of the republican party, including McCain, spent the past 8 years increasing the authority of the federal government – eavesdropping on Americans (the dems actually cooperated in this effort), spending billions of dollars to send young people to their deaths for nothing, while the wealthy profited on an economy still entirely based on oil. That sounds like a really big, monolithic government to me. Republicans and democrats are pissed. The “free market” message that McCain speaks of (Joe the plumber trying to start his business, etc.) is misplaced, since the purpose of a “free market” is to increase competition and allow a fair playing field. A “free market” and a “small government” is what everyone wants. In order to get it, we need to foster innovation and help to create a fair playing field. These things don’t just spontaneously materialize (maybe they do in black holes), and people know this.
I don’t think I need polls to know that Obama is going to win. Americans are not idiots, Obama has the most logical message, and if the dems have enough control in the senate, he will actually be able to implement much of what he has said (although it is true that politicians often disappoint).
It is true that many Americans can be pigeonholed, but often good sense prevails.
RE Gebadia Smith: “If Obama wins it is because the magority of Americans are poor without jobs, healthcare and their kids can’t even name the capital of their own country.”
I think you are even more vapid than Palin.
Wow, I can’t help but comment. Some of the racist comments that have been said on here are just amazing. Everyone on here from America claims to be better than all these “4th world jungle slums” and “towel heads” You sound like uneducated idiots…
I myself am from America but damn, I hate to be represented by some of the racist pricks commenting on here. We pride ourselves on our free speech, yet someone from across our borders makes an innocent comment on their thoughts on the election and they are attacked, and claim they should not be able to speak freely on here. It makes no sense… Seriously about 90% of the people commenting on here have 0 class.
I’m not even gonna state my opinion on the election, because it doesn’t matter. Just had to state my amazement at the way everyone is representing our country on here… And we wonder why everyone hates us…
You forgot the chanting of USA, USA, USA. But other than that, great comment and I agree with you.
Eric,
Congratulations; for a blog that rarely attracts obscenely extreme opines, you have proven again that politics trumps all debates – even those involving the Evil Empire. Reading through the comments posted here one has to wonder how the process of electing a president works at all; largely uninformed, emotional extremists who appear all too out of touch with reality.
But maybe that’s what makes American politics; the ability to create and then defend with vicious tongue one’s own sense of reality.
If that is the case, then I can say Obama will win. He will win because the stakeholders are unhappy with the performance of current leadership and the incumbent party is unable to decide what it will offer as replacement, having tempted voters with a wet edge transition and eventually replacing that with a duo designed to manipulate the emotions of the most extreme. The win will be decisive, but not the landslide some hoped to see.
And then, those who have been doing the buggering, can take their turn as the receptacle. It won’t be the Socialistic pendulum swing portrayed by many on this thread, but it will be change and right now, change is absolutely necessary to survive, to preserve all that is good in this country, and to win back the support of stakeholders.
Incredibly confused retard…..
ohpleaseohpleaseohpleaseohplease
http://notimefo...8/11/bike23.jpg
This thread is so full of idiots, I thought I would respond to the real winners in one long comment.
Mercer:
“Obama has lost already! Blame the Bradley effect [which, by the way, is wonderful!!!]”
Thanks for being honest.
Suzanne:
“Although ignored and overlooked by so many, the “Bradley” effect did happen, not only to him but also to Doug Wilder in Virginia and David Dinkins in NY City. They were all stunned by their unexpected, sound defeat. I am afraid that it will happen tomorrow, and Obama will lose, although he already see himself in the White House. Then, there is the unresolved fact of his American citizenship – The governor of Hawaii has refused to release his birth certificate: which may be from Kenya or just not exist…”
Suzanne, why don’t you just come out of the closet like Mercer does and say that you LOVE the Bradley Effect? Secondly, America is country for ‘immigrants’, not idiots. So get out.
Mallory:
“independents on this one [about 60%] will not vote for a black candidate, let alone one that has promised to implement so many negative and disastrous “changes” for our country”
Again, is your point that the Bradley Effect is real, or that you want it to be real? Your post is totally incoherent.
Gebadia Smith:
“The only reason McCain has a chance is because he is white and Obama is black. As for Obama the only reason he has a chance is because Bush was that bad. So basically if McCain wins it says that the majority of American are still stuck on race. If Obama wins it is because the magority of Americans are poor without jobs, healthcare and their kids can’t even name the capital of their own country.
It has nothing to do with issues. Niether of Obama or MacCain has a chance in hell to fix what is wrong. The war in Iraq costs to much money and you can’t win it. Read “The Prince.” It explains how taking over another nation is next to impossible. You have to basically perform acts of violence so horrific people will be afraid to fight back which is why it worked in Japan. The only people who won anything from the war are the Oil companies and the companies that make the weapons. What benifet did the average joe get expect higher gas prices? You can’t just pend 400 billion dollars and not expect it to hurt a little back home. It will take a long, long time to recover from the war in Iraq. Nobody can change that.”
Gebadia Smith, “Your Stupid”. LOL. Please head to the states, register to vote in a solid Obama state, and vote for McCain. I don’t want to vote for the same candidate as you would if you could.
Anne:
“the First Amendment applies *ONLY* to American citizens.”
Anne, what the hell are you talking about? This is an American blog. And Erick can decide which comments remain.
LoveLife:
“Excuse me?? Obama won’t even offer medical care for a dying infant who was just aborted by some hack doctor, I’m sorry but that takes a monster!”
I blame you for Bush. Your priorities are perverted.
Anne:
“You are not American, so your “favorite poll” and also your opinions are not only irrelevant but also worthless. Please shut up.”
Anne, you are sick. Way to go. Wait, are you the same person as Suzanne?
ekc:
“On “change”:
The idea of exercising executive power to institute social and economic “change” under the presumption of hindsight is a dangerous affront to the doctrine of balance-of-power that is the heart and soul of American Government.
It is more than a bit ironic that the very candidate — a former professor of constitutional law — who opposed the invasion of Iraq as an irresponsible exercise of executive power, has run an entire campaign on the very idea of the-presidency-as-a-vehicle-for-change.
The prerogative to institute “change” belongs to private enterprise, to private citizens, and to the legislature — not the executive branch. On January 20, 2009 the next President of the United States will take an oath to “support and defend the Constitution of the United States”. Social engineering is not part of the job description.
Voters should ask themselves what kind of “change” they are signing up for before casting their ballots.
-ekc”
ekc, seriously, WHAT is your point?
hehehe great post! wanted to do something similar.
I thought the politards were confined to AOL News where they bash each other to death in the comment sections in “ALL CAPS en missspelings !!!!!exclamation pointers!!!! no punct-whatevs except 4 lotsa!!!!!!THESE!!!!!! and even worst grammers & stuff” on nearly EVERY post – that’s right – the posts do NOT have to be political in nature for these morons to deem it a suitable battleground for stirring up and promptly crucifying every political opponent within.
I hate AOL News for that…for the cruft that shows up bright eyed and bushy-tailed each day ready to wage another virtual war on delightful subjects such as “OsamaYOMomma is REALY a MUSLIM!!!one! and stuff he bought the vote cheats LIES !!!PROOF!!! and a Socilest & McCain is just MOAR TEH SAME SAY no more 2to 8 moar yers”
From there these beasts quickly devolve into personal insults, asking each other’s mothers to perform indecent acts, praying for each other’s souls (ah! the precious piety these swine show off) comparing each other to dogs – and that’s on days when they’re more or less acting “civilized”. It gets much worse than that but I’ll forgo a full description to save time.
After “reading” such garbled, angry, illiterate, unintelligible rants, I don’t want to vote. I want to ship every one of these morons off to Siberia so they can die of frostbite. If you ever want to make me throw up just make me read AOL News. That’s about all it takes – until tonight. Now all it takes is a quick trip to Techcrunch to set my stomach roiling with the same disgust.
I give up on any sign of intelligent life on Earth after reading most of the comments above mine.
I had a plan to avoid arguing politics online, so in May I wrote on my blog that I was voting for Ron Paul. My plan worked: no one argued – because no one argues with people “crazy enough” to vote for Ron. Who I actually voted for? No one’s business. (It wasn’t Ron!)
I’m an American but I refuse to engage in sophomoric, insulting, irrational, so-called “political” arguments with what passes for humanity these days. I ignore those who do start that with me by changing the subject or refusing to respond positively until THEY change the subject. I refuse to participate in forums like this just to argue politics in a fashion such as what’s witnessed above. A rabid pack of animals would tear itself to shreds with the same useless glee, but the politards are so blinded by wild emotion and true conviction that they cannot see how much energy they waste on nothing.
???? Easy on the weed, sister…
I think people get really excited and type so fast while drooling and punching the keyboard then they hit <send without editing just to see what kind of reactions they can provoke
“???? Easy on the weed, sister…”
You mean you’re smoking too much of it again, Charles?
“I think people get really excited and type so fast while drooling and punching the keyboard then they hit <send without editing just to see what kind of reactions they can provoke”
*I* think people get really excited and type so fast while drooling and punching the keyboard then they hit <send without double-checking to see who or what they replied to”
You seem lost. I was explaining why people who argue about politics are intolerable (and more often than not, completely illiterate) f*^king morons who should be collectively shipped off to Siberia to die of frostbite.
Geez, sooooo bitchy… I was agreeing with you, not talking about you. You’re right, you shouldn’t participate in boards “like this” if you get so upset.
On this the eve of the election, I’d like to capture my thoughts before America either elects a president who its first 26 presidents could have legally owned, or brazenly subverts the very ideals it was founded upon by manipulating numbers in a final embarrassingly overt goosestep towards corporate totalitarianism.
I am nervous. And not night-before-the-swim-test nervous or even night-you-lose-your-virginity nervous, it’s a low rumbling primal panic which I can only liken to Star Wars panic. Disney panic. The edge-of-your-seat-terror that makes you wonder if Skywalker’s doomed after he refuses to join Darth Vader and drops down into the abyss, if the wicked octopus or grand vizier or steroid-pumping-village-misogynist is going to wed/kill/skin the dashing prince and then evil people in dark funny costumes are going to take over the world… if it wasn’t a movie of course.
And tonight it’s not. It’s not a movie and yet I feel like Obama might as well be wearing an American flag cape while a decaying McCain, in a high-tech robotic spider wheelchair wearing an eyepatch and stroking an evil cat, gives orders to a sexy scheming Palin who marches back and forth through their sub-terranian campaign lair in four inch thigh-highs and full-body black leather catsuit bossing around the evangelical ants with a loooooong whip… umm… is this just me?
Anyway, the point is that things feel weird folks. I have friends who have peed in waterbottles to keep from interrupting a Halo-playing marathon who got off their asses/couches to volunteer for the Obama campaign not once, but many times. Friends so cheap their body content is at least 1/3 Ramen Noodle who donated a good deal of their hard-earned cash to the campaign. People have registered to vote in record numbers, and yet, something just doesn’t feel right. I think we should stop congratulating ourselves for just voting. To vote is a privilege which people have died for, and I think there’s a whole lot more to be done for the country than to simply help win an election every 4 years.
Hundreds of millions of dollars, hundreds of thousands of man-hours spent on both sides by good-intentioned people who want to make a difference in an historic election, so many resources and voices and energies devoted to a single day. After tomorrow, half of that is going to have been a waste. And I can’t help but wonder what could have happened if all that muscle had been put towards something else, and what will happen to its momentum after the election has come and gone. Shouldn’t we be donating our money to good causes whenever we can? Helping people who don’t have? Dedicating some of our time to contribute to making the country which provides for us a better place? Of course a power shift is a hugely significant step on the path to great reform, but worrying about this election has been a wakeup call for me:
Even if Obama wins, we have not “won.” This isn’t a movie and we can’t toss every greedy lobbyist oil fatcat bigot down a reactor shaft. I think if we dedicate ourselves to the ongoing welfare of the country as much as we have to the outcome of this election, we’ll have a much better shot at coming closer to the overwhelming good the liberals hope Obama will usher in, but which no mere mortal could fully realize alone.
Which brings me to the other side. I’ve heard a lot of people claim that if McCain wins, they’re leaving. I heard the same thing about Bush’s reelection, and his unelection before that, and nobody seems to be leaving. And that’s fine. Because as much as I complain about certain political happenings, atrocities, etc., I really do like it here and I suspect most other people do too. We have New York and Hollywood, purple mountain’s majesty and sea to shining sea, we created jazz and country music and baseball and cars and lightbulbs and computers and that movie with hundreds of animated singing Chihuahuas! I mean who among the shivering Plymouth pilgrims ever imagined ordering hundreds of animated singing chihuahuas onto a magical box from an invisible information superweb?
The point being, if things don’t turn out the way I want tomorrow, I feel compelled, as a college-graduated adultish-type-person, to take a stand. And if I’m going to leave I’m going to leave. But if I’m going to stay I’m not going to sit around whining like I have for the past 8 years. It’s like when I don’t clean my room because it’s dirty and then I blame the dirt. So in my very indecisive way, before you and your screen, I’m declaring my intention to make some kind of stand in the event of -(Ican’tevensayit)-, and encouraging you to consider making one too…
Jump the ship or grab a bucket?
-Sigh-
Wasn’t everything so much easier back when the worst possible affront to your values was a PB&J sandwich cut diagonally with crust?
Anyways, I guess what I’m saying is that if we’re going to stay on board, we should probably be generous with our time and resources when times are tough even more than when the hero saves the day. Because what if he doesn’t? And what if he can’t?
Yours Nervously,
Hannah Friedman
http://www.writ...ah.blogspot.com
????? Easy on the weed, sister…
Obama wins because he will, McCain loses because he’s old.
Btw
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