Amongst many things, Steve Jobs is a master story teller. Every year he delivers two signature keynotes: one at MacWorld in January and one at Apple’s World Wide Developer Conference in June. However, these keynotes are more than just new product introductions. They are true stage craft and accordingly they have become major media events. Job’s keynotes happen so infrequently and are so central to Apple that their importance cannot be understated. A great keynote sets the tone for the year to come. This happened at MacWorld 2007, where Jobs announced the AppleTV and the iPhone. At the same time, a weak keynote can be a significant disappointment. This happened at MacWorld 2008, where Steve showed the world the MacBook Air for the first time. Given how important keynotes are for Apple, and that updated MacBooks and MacBook Pros all but complete Apple’s 2008 holiday product line up, the question now turns to this: What will Steve Jobs talk about during his keynote at MacWorld 2009?
I have no insider knowledge of Apple or its products, so analyzing Apple is a bit like reading tea leaves. But one particularly interesting tool in understanding the introduction of Apple products is MacRumors‘ Mac Buyer’s Guide. Looking at the buyer’s guide, it is clear that almost all of Apple’s consumer facing products have been refreshed, with the exception of the iMac, Mac Mini, Apple’s Cinema displays, and Mac Pros. Both the iMac and Mac Mini lines are likely to be refreshed any day now, whereas Apple’s monitors have been partially refreshed with the introduction of a 24″ LED Cinema Display monitor equipped with a DisplayPort. So, three obvious things that Jobs is likely to introduce in January are new Mac Pros, the 17″ MacBook Pro, and additional LED displays. This would unify Apple under the display port interface, something that Jobs stated as a goal for the company during Apple’s October Laptop event.
It is also likely that during the MacWorld 2009 keynote, Jobs will talk about Apple’s software. It is natural to expect that Apple’s the 2009 versions of the iLife suite of photo, video and music editing software, the iWork office productivity suite will be launched at MacWorld 2009. This is especially true given that the rumors suggesting that Apple would announce these software packages at its October laptop event turned out to be false. Normally such an announcement would not be very interesting. However, MobileMe, even with all its failed promise, could make the announcement of iLife and iWork ‘09 far more exciting. If its over-the-air syncing platform were integrated into a cloud based collaboration platform for Apple’s iWork, iLife, and professional applications, this would to create a truly powerful user experience, and especially differentiate iWork from other office productivity suites. I am sure that Steve will given an update on OS 10.6, Snow Leopard, during MacWorld 2009, because at WWDC 2008, he said that the next version of Apple’s operating system would be released during the second quarter of 2009.
Three other less likely product introductions at MacWorld 2009 are a larger iPhone/Web Pad, a revision to AppleTV which integrates the product into networked flat-screen televisions, and iPhone Nanos. This week saw an interesting story come out of the New York Times. The Times reported seeing traffic from an Apple product which has a screen resolution greater than that of an iPhone but less than that of a MacBook. This seems to correlate very well with reports of Apple building something that is akin to a new Newton, although whether it is a bigger iPhone or a MacBook Tablet is still any one’s guess. Leaving the product pipeline aside, a large touch screen product makes complete sense for Apple, especially given the amount of money invested in their multi-touch intellectual property, something that has been largely limited to the iPhone and simple motions on the MacBook and Macbook Pro. While the economics behind Apple branded flat-screen televisions seem questionable, Jason Calacanis claimed to know that Apple was going to announce Apple brand flat-panel TVs that are networked and have integrated AppleTV functionalities. Jobs continues to call the AppleTV a hobby, and given that it has been close to a year since the AppleTV was updated, some sort of revision to the product seems to be in order. Finally an iPhone Nano seems a natural extension to the current product mix. If using non-GAAP accounting, the iPhone made up 39% of Apple’s revenue during the third quarter of 2008. An iPhone Nano priced at $99, would sell at significant at volume, and speed Apple’s growth in the mobile space.
Finishing 2008, Apple has a tremendous set of products to offer, with the iPhone 3G, MacBook, and MacBook Pro being at the center of the mix. If Jobs only announces updates to the rest of Apple’s core products, refreshes Apple’s software, and reveals more information about OSX 10.6, he would have extremely good content for his keynote. But, any one of the three products floating around the Apple rumor mill would make his keynote at MacWorld 2009 one to remember. Even without them, though, Apple is poised to have great product line up during the beginning of 2009.
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He will be forced to address the global and US economy and what Apple is doing to protect itself, remain competitive and future tech developments.
Of course, he will highlight the success of Iphone
They already set themselves up for possible price-cut on the entry-level iPhone down to $99. Don’t see how an iPhone Nano would fit with the iPhone feature set. In the long run, I think Apple would like to see everyone just using an iPhone to replace the iPod almost entirely (except for say some rough applications like workout music, etc. where smaller size and less vulnerability might count).
I very much hope that they’ll go with the Tablet/large iPhone of one kind or another as well.
As for the stage-craft and deliberate mystery surrounding Apple products (this post’s contribution to the guessing game is proof that it works), read this post on the Archetype Branding employed to make the deep connection in people’s minds:
http://businessmindhacks.com/p.....e-magician
@ publicrelations. Wow, what another brain busting comment. What would I do without you on TechCrunch? I thought we banned you?
I hear it’s iPet.
Good guesses:)
I’m pretty sure they’ll announce new monitors that don’t need the new laptops, with displayport, forcing us to purchase adapters.
I’m hoping they’ll announce a new Time Capsule. The current one has some limitations and a new Time Capsule will go a long way to making backup easier and mandatory for everyone.
An update of Snow Leopard and a disc for attendees seems almost guaranteed.
I also think an update to the iPhone, just with higher capacities will happen as well.
I WANT TO SMACK STEVE JOBS IN THE FACE.COM
ugh. onlyaloserwouldmakethatsite.com
Spoiler: He’ll announce an incredible auto-correct macro that ensures bloggers use the correct capitalisation in the word Macworld.
I WANT TO SMACK STEVE JOBS IN THE FACE.COM
HE BETTER SAY THE IPHONE WILL HAVE MMS OR ELSE!
I WANT TO SMACK STEVE JOBS IN THE FACE.COM
I WANT TO SMACK STEVE JOBS IN THE FACE.COM
I WANT TO SMACK STEVE JOBS IN THE FACE.COM
I WANT TO SMACK STEVE JOBS IN THE FACE.COM
I WANT TO SMACK STEVE JOBS IN THE FACE.COM
I WANT TO SMACK STEVE JOBS IN THE FACE.COM
PLZ STEVE STOP BEING AN IDIOT!
Dan. When you make a post like this; bullet point first, explanation follows.
The jump to $99 from $199 isn’t that significant. It’s the $100 a month you have to pay ATT that is. People won’t jump at $99 because it’s less than $199 if they still have to pay $100 a month for the phone.
Apple Netbook?
It doesn’t matter what he announces: so long as he hold it above his head, Calacanis says he’ll buy it. (I’m kind of hoping it will be a turd on a stick.)
I am pretty sure they are going to update the Mac Pro line. The new intel i7 chip is coming out around the same time, so that makes a strong case for it. I doubt we will see an update to the design of the Mac Pro, its already pretty damn amazing.
A new version of iLIfe or iWork wouldn’t surprise me, however I would guess that would happen in June.
Mac mini refresh is possible, adding in a better video card would really help the sales of the device. Those intel graphics cards just suck.
I don’t see them releasing a tablet just yet, _maybe_ June. Then again, if it was just a bigger iPhone (in a sense) they could have it ready.
I would be very shocked if they didn’t preview Snow Leopard or make any announcements about it. Sounds like another June release.
We aren’t going to see an update to the AppleTV for a long time. There is far too limited HD content right now and you can’t purchase HD movies.
Regarding MobileMe, its still a disaster. Its missing a ton of very important features and is fairly unreliable. If they open their push technology to Google (or hell even Yahoo) I am going to drop MobileMe like a bad habit.
Flat panel HDTV a la’ calacanis
Wow, another dumbass Mactard starting the hype even 3 months before Jobs’ another coming out. Just why on TechCrunch?
He’s going to announce nothing - because he’s not going to even be there. He’s not on the agenda already and not announced as the keynote speaker. He’s going to stop doing these keynotes as he sets himself up to retire - since they now have other forums to make their over hyped announcements.
Some sort of LCD screen with AppleTV integrated!
Acquisition of Adobe
it took you 5 long paragraphs to say ‘macworld is a big deal, but apple is so hot right now they’ll be fine even if its lame in 09′
I hope he comes with a new product line this time, not just some addition to the existing product !!
Apple rumors invading TechCrunch … !!!
I only want one thing. The return of the matte screen. Spare me the glare. Seriously.
I like how it has been less than two weeks since the last Apple event and everybody’s going crazy for the next big thing. But I guess I’m just as excited as anyone else about what they’re going to announce!
Sadly…his resignation… I hope he’s a live to make that announcement. His September and October keynotes were hard to watch.
If I were to desensitize myself from his declining health, I’d ask for the tablet that we have all been waiting for. Apple needs to partner up with Techcrunch IT…;)
Apple products are premium stuff always very expensive but in these times of a bad economy, basically credit crunch. What is he gonna say about that? May be he may talk about http://xrl.us/SES8SEO
New Apple products depend on a holistic view of the markets, supply chains, and economics.
@Flat panel - makes no sense. Low margin business that does not match Apple’s long term strategy. HP has been struggling as low margin Taiwan makers have become increasingly aggressive.
@notebook - unproven segment. If Amazon Kindle gains traction, look for Apple to get aggressive.
@iPhone nano - if an iPhone clone gains traction, this becomes a defensive product extension. HTC, Samsung, … the Asian gang don’t have the design skills. Short term view of orders versus brand, community building limits their ability to compete. If RIMM thinks cool is adding color casing, they have a long way to go before they can compete. Motorola, Nokia, and Microsoft move too slowly. The old Palm can do something innovative, but they need to re-energize their own employees. Thus, iPhone has clear sailing without the need for price reduction.
iPod has majority share. Laptops have delivered slow, increased share growth. A faster iPhone processor w/ low power consumption makes more sense - particularly for video and multi-threaded use.
Just an opinion.
-DJ
http://telCade.com/
http://adEcon101.blogspot.com/
Steve gonna announce that Apple’s finally going to buy Adobe. It’s about time.
Apple TV will be great. But make it a platform. Let developers develop apps for TV!
Why does this “iPhone nano” idea keep coming up?
Is it because that’s the only way people think they could reduce the price more? That’s a fallacy. Look at the Motorola Razer and many other initially pricey handsets. The Razer came out around the same price as the iPhone and now it’s being given away free with contract. Upfront price on phones as popular as the Razer and the iPhone is not at all dependent on the cost of the hardware, over time. So by the time hardware for a nano iPhone is ready the original iPhone would be cheaper upfront than that new hardware (if not free).
Is it to have a smaller size iPhone? At a smaller size the iPhone would lose its big display, which everything is built around. Third-party apps would be incompatible with a display at a lower resolution. A smaller display at the same resolution would be too hard to read (many people already complain about trying to read text on web pages on the current iPhone). Wold it be so you could exercise with it? There are already armbands and things for exercising with the current iPhone.
No, an iPhone nano is NOT “a natural extension to the current product mix.” It fills no product niche and would have too many shortcomings.
More likely is that Apple will use their acquisition of PA Semi to shrink the number of chips in an iPhone to a smaller and smaller number, then reduce its overall volume by slimming it down even more and making it shorter. Once you get to the point where it’s almost entirely screen and about half as thin as the current model there’s absolutely no reason to even think of an iPhone nano.
Slow news day at TC, eh ? the laws of physics says that random speculation about steve jobs keynotes expand to fill the media space available.
Anyway its pretty clear that a tablet is on its way. Gates was ahead of Apple for once.
Tablet Macbook
Upgrade to iPhone (both software and hardware, may be only battery)
iPhone Nano
How about an e-book reader to help kill the Amazon Kindle. Esp. since Oprah jumped on the Kindle bandwagon. But I’m still either hoping for a mini notebook around $600 or the long wanted mac tablet PC.
I would be interested in similarly insightful postings into what Bill Gates’ new startup might do or what Scoble will have for breakfast tomorrow.
The major thing lacking in iphone/tpod touch is pressure sensitivity; I bet this makes a debut.
kindle competitor …
MWSF 2009
A new release of iPhone/iTouch software with video, copy/paste and over a dozen other new features/enhancements will be introduced. This will be for the iPhone 3G/iTouch hardware. They will charge between $19.99 and $29.99. (Remember by this time the market will be close to 7 million users and could add an extra $100 million in revenue.) The new OS will ship that day on all new iPhone/iTouch devices.
New 17″ MacBook Pro. (Can be configured with up to 8gb of memory.) Aimed at Pro Video/Multimedia users.
Refresh of their monitor lineup.
Oh, one more thing…
MacTablet: This will be a device that will sell for around between $800-$900 and will offer a touchscreen using the multitouch interface.
Itunes store may announce “bookstore”. This device will also be used mostly for surfing web and controlling other apple products.
I believe by next summer we’ll see a brand new iPhone design and the current iPhone will be rebranded the iPhone Classic and will sell between $99 and $150.
Other points of interest:
Apple TV - This needs serious attention, but the market is still developing and Apple needs to see how the industry shakes out before making any other revisions. (I think to save face as well–another refresh and failure may bring serious tarnish to the brand.)
Tell me what you think…
i like your idea about the iphone, i think they will still call it the iPhone 3G (not iPhone classic). I also think you are right about the $99 price range. The big announcement will be a new phone, with aluminum, thinner and higher capacity, called the apple phone.
idk maybe.
an area where Apple still haven’t yet come into is the game council business.. I think they can do something that would give x-box, wii and ps-3 run for the money.
How about a nice size box with multitouch screen interface that also functions as an i-tunes media player (also play games from app stores) and will have wi-fi and gps for fun on the go. Maybe the iphone integrates as a remote controller of sorts.. Imagine all the nice gizmos and complementary games and hardware that could be built by third party around it. Maybe too much to do before January ? (:
Apple doesn’t have the cash to buy Adobe.
Personally i think the Apple HDTV is a bit of a stretch - people are already heavily invested in their HDTVs, and alot of companies are already producing amazing products. I can’t see people re-investing in a new panel for functionality readily available as an add-on.
I would be more inclined towards Apple revealing an Apple TV / Mac Mini hybrid: Apple TV (with iTunes integration) with DVD (or Blu Ray), Web, and possibly Digital Tuner & DVR capabilities.
Nobody has nailed this yet (or got it into the mainstream), and Apple is in a unique position to get this over the line.
A Mini and a Mini Macbook!
iDontcare
kindle competitor …
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touch screen TV, which is Internet ready, with a touch screen remote, which is actually an iPhone.
skype + apple?
like the idea of an apple netbook.
can you explain the adobe thing…….why??
You can start by changing it to Macworld. It’s not MacWorld. GAH!
Proofread much?
“It is also likely that during the MacWorld 2009 keynote, Jobs will talk about Apple’s software. It is natural to expect that Apple’s the 2009 versions of the iLife suite of photo, video and music editing software, the iWork office productivity suite will be launched at MacWorld 2009.”
Pretty certain he’ll announce iFirewire
It’s a little short tube. It comes with a 9mm drill and a soldering iron.
You open the new MacBook, drill a hole or two in the Al case, and solder the seven wires to the motherboard according to supplied instructions. It will retail at $14.99. Once fitted you can capture video and then think about buying iMovie’09 and FC. 150,000 will be sold in the first week, and sales of the Macbook will take off.
I’m pretty certain. My granddaughter said so. She reads tea-leaves and she’s normally right.
Then he will announce the ieSATA port kit and the iHDMI port kit and the iPCI/Express card kit
Oh, and one more thing, watch out for the new iMini Tower. Has the speed and power of the present Mac Pro but only one HD, a 7200 rpm 3.5, 1 Tb and one DVD drive, but its loaded with 5 slots and 16 ports of all kinds. Maximum connectivity is the aim. Priced at $699, over 18 million will be sold in the first 3 months before its renamed the iSteve.
If this does not happen watch for the boss declaring he is leaving Apple to become the new governor of Alaska
He will announce that Apple is going to become a bank and thus qualify for handouts from Secretary of Handouts, Henry Paulson.
how about some news on his failing health, instead of ignoring the elephant in the room?
Final Cut Studio 3?
Don’t know, but friggin’ anxious to hear!
Thanks for the info.
Sigh… it’s started early this year, hasn’t it? This pointless speculation about what might or might not happen. Is there really nothing else worth writing about?