YouTube co-founder Chad Hurley wrote a post this morning about the future of online video and YouTube specifically. Hurley notes that 13 hours worth of videos are uploaded every minute to YouTube (a figure we’ve reported before). And he predicts more of the same: more videos will be uploaded to the Web, more video creators will be uploading those videos, and more viewers will be watching them on all sorts of screens from the living room to their mobile devices. In other words, more of the same means more exponential growth of videos on the Web.
Hurley’s vision of the future, though, pretty much describes the world as it is today. You can watch YouTube on your TiVo, iPhone, or PC. But if you read between the lines, he does hint that mobile might be the next really big step for YouTube:
Our goal is to allow every person on the planet to participate by making the upload process as simple as placing a phone call. This new video content will be available on any screen – in your your living room, or on your device in your pocket. YouTube and other sites will bring together all the diverse media which matters to you, from videos of family and friends to news, music, sports, cooking and much, much more.
The mobile opportunity for YouTube is bigger than just making all the video in the world available in your pocket. Mobile phones are also the new video cameras. Once it becomes truly easy to upload video from your phone to YouTube, it could truly become the repository of every captured moment in people’s lives.
For all his visions of the future, however, Hurley still has to figure out how make money from all of those videos.
Given this popularity of YouTube, the increasingly predictability of quality broadband services, etc. – I don’t understand why the move to IPTV in the home isn’t happening faster. Consumers have already proven willing to adopt devices like TIvo (and even connecting them to the Internet to perform certain functions). Look at DirecTV (plugged into the phone line, which could just as easily be an ethernet line plugged into a DSL modem). It’s baffling to me that the various pieces have been in place for years now, but that no ISP has yet bundled them all together to become the first “Internet TV provider.”
youtube says video might be a big deal {seesmic_video:{”url_thumbnail”:{”value”:”http://t.seesmic.com/thumbnail/zEAVWN6j4t_th1.jpg”}”title”:{”value”:”youtube says video might be a big deal ”}”videoUri”:{”value”:”http://www.seesmic.com/video/2Mmy4qdliV”}}}
A good thread of discussion on IPTV will elicit several camps
a) the US centric telco minded (AT&T UVerse, etc.)
b) the Internet unicast players (YouTube, TV over IP players, etc.)
c) the rest of the non-US world
First… a)
IPTV is not in the US to the depth and breadth as it is in other countries for the same reasons that people complain about the dearth of high quality broadband in both metro and outlying RBOC footprint.
IPTV requires a non-net neutrality oriented path (i.e. quality of service) that delivers multicast (channels) and unicast (video on demand) from a service head end (Central Office) across some transport (DSL, FTTH) with enough bandwidth (4-6Mbps -per- viewing!) to support multiple STB’s (set top boxes) while preserving content provider rights via CAS (conditional access system) and DRM that is controlled by middleware (Bundles, A La Carte) that are both affordable per household as well as interoperable with each other.
Content -> Internet -> Ethernet -> STB -> TV
In short. It’s hard.
Next… b)
When people trot out YouTube as being IPTV, they are conflating terms.
Example:
http://ventureb...lient-is-toast/
Content -> Internet -> PC
Next up c)…
If you want IPTV, move out of the US to a country that offers IPTV.
Or, move to the rural US and find an RLEC (small telco) that has deployed IPTV over their DSL/FTTH plants or move to a specific area within the US that is trialing an IPTV service from a large telco such as AT&T’s UVerse.
I’ll ignore Verizon FIOS where they are just doing digital cable RF transport differently and hand you regular coax as a compromise. It’s how a lot of legacy Cable head ends stay relevant as you bring FTTH out to markets.
Content -> FTTH -> Coax -> TV
But calling this FIOS solution “IPTV” still makes a lot of industry pundits cringe. In fact, FIOS TV has been marketed differently and FIOS IPTV is the progression path they announced a little over a year ago.
If we are waiting for large service providers in the US to invest the time and money (in a rapidly evolving IPTV matrix of players) to create a uniformly applied service model across their entire footprint — you’ll keep waiting.
Just sayin’…
IPTV: You’ll be waiting a while. {seesmic_video:{”url_thumbnail”:{”value”:”http://t.seesmic.com/thumbnail/VwDCvH3JLI_th1.jpg”}”title”:{”value”:”IPTV: You’ll be waiting a while. ”}”videoUri”:{”value”:”http://www.seesmic.com/video/n7HvFwjElk”}}}
what is that for
we are experincing an Apex of innovation.
flooded with “inevitable evolution.” (yt)
email remains killer app of century.
Yaoo $18 gaggle $445 dollars a share and next month they will be sleeping together. what is wrong with this picture.
location and integration is final frontier for mobile and internet.
http://seesmic....ideo/Q7B9X13aTE
This technological progress represents what people have been doing since the invention of the telephone: allow people to communicate more and more through easier means. In this case, the communication is not one person talking to another, but through a different medium, a youtube video. Years ago we never would have thought it would be possible to watch videos streaming from the Internet from a cell phone. However, we are still behind. People in Japan can watch television and pretty much anything from their cell phones. I’d like to see the US take larger steps towards that rather than have cell phone companies milk the population as much as they can for our money.
That’s kinda hard to say that. I guess he is in a position to say that, now that he’s good enough for Google to buy from…:-)
I think they’re right…how can you beat that brand/content combo?
I agree with Shawn and its not a sarcastic remark… its easy when we look in rear view mirror and it looks easy. But 6 years back if you spoke to someone about a site hosting videos or a portal to connect to friends; I bet nobody would have paid any attention.
Any estimates on how much it costs to keep youtube running?
I posted my estimation and calculations at http://charbax....ytes-per-month/
I estimate Google is using 126petabytes of bandwidth per month, costing them something like $10 million per month in bandwidth and storage costs.
But I also think that Google can easilly monetize Youtube, actually I think they will monetize it so easilly, when Google flips the invideo advertising switch, they will make billions of dollars on highly targetted and relevant Youtube invideo advertising, that for Google, Youtube could quickly become their largest source of income, quickly overtaking text based advertising revenue.
Wow, with average length of 5 mins, this means that 2.6 uploads are started EACH SECOND.
Meh.
2.6 uploads a second? For all of YouTube? In Nov 2006, it was already 60K/day, or approaching 1 per second.
Is the average 5min / video? I thought it was lower. For all US Internet video views in Jan 2008, ComScore put the average at 2.9 minutes (http://www.coms....asp?press=2111). I would expect YouTube to be shorter … meaning it’s probably 5+ uploads per second now.
hahahahhahahhahahahahahah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Very exciting to see YouTube focusing on mobile. With cell phone cameras getting better with every product launch and the need for engaging content on web sites to increase video is key.
Good question RD. It seems that they’re acquiring quite a few funds from somewhere, so I predict that funding won’t become an issue. I remember when I first stumbled upon Youtube, I thought it was an incredible idea and couldn’t believe it took so long for someone to come up with it. I definitely don’t get into it as much as a lot of people do, but when I need to find a video that I’m looking for, I can generally find it (and related videos) pretty quick. It al seems to be going up for them…
Jake
NoteScribe: Premier Notes Software
Is Chad Hurley becoming a megalomaniac?
That’s why I love YouTube. They’re so accessible. {seesmic_video:{”url_thumbnail”:{”value”:”http://t.seesmic.com/thumbnail/OLjQh5bUTj_th1.jpg”}”title”:{”value”:”That’s why I love YouTube. They’re so accessible. ”}”videoUri”:{”value”:”http://www.seesmic.com/video/bgErpBemB4″}}}
Until YT builds a profitable business they have no credibility, unless we all want to pretend like it’s 1998 again. It’s that simple.
take away the copyrighted material, and what do you have? Sure, kittens chasing toys are cute, and skateboarders falling down stairs are entertaining, but is the viewership of such sustainable? And has been pointed out, profitable?
the value being created by youtube for consumers far exceeds anything out there. just the mere fact it that it plays to emerging prosumer trends is reason enough. from isolated passive consumption to expressed interaction lifestreaming (video is vital)
i think people underestimate the differing value proposition between hulu and youtube. apples and pears.
google really are inventing the future. not to mention business model innovation. monetization sometimes takes time (see adwords/adsense) – hulu is playing the same old incumbent games.
Creating consumer value does not mean you have a sustainable business. Witness the dot com bust. Giving things away for free creates customer value – until you spend all your money and go bust. Youtube is only around because of Google’s deep pockets, not on its own merits.
There is zero business model innovation so far with regards to Youtube. Ask any Google shareholder.
you seem to be funny jk
Erick, I have a TiVo series 2 and it won’t play youtube videos at all. I can play Music Choice and the other services but YouTube doesn’t work.
It does on my PS3 however. So just keep that in mind when you say YouTube works on TiVo. I think it’s series 3 and up.
i am a hulu fan as of late
i dont care for the stupid youtube viral videos of fat kids dancing, singing etc….
i watch monk weekly on hulu
hahaha!!!!!!!!!!
“For all his visions of the future, however, Hurley still has to figure out how make money from all of those videos.” —–as soon as he figures that out – and paying off copyright holders – he will be in the future alright – but it won’t be the one he his dreaming about these days….
BFD. YouTube is a cool app but it is not a business and may never be one. Google is MS — one profitable item, lots of $ generated from it, nothing else worth remarking upon.
I must admit that I am not surprised at the level of envy in the comments. Give credit where credit is due. The YouTube founders raised money most of us dream of and then sold their company to a bigger company, earning US$330 million each.
YouTube has significantly impacted online video and even elections. They deserve credit for that.
As for innovation, people always mistake “invention” for “innovation”. YouTube doesn’t need to innovate to be profitable, it can adapt a business model from somewhere else and earn money.
Business models are not that unique. Is YouTube profitable? No but it is still young and there is still lots of time.
HP, 3M and Sony did not start off with a bang (read “Good to Great” by Jim Collins and learn about business). YouTube is bringing in revenue and will learn from past mistakes. More media companies will sign up to license their content because they all want eyeballs and YT is the king for online video eyeballs.
As Winston Churchill said: “You have enemies? Good. That means you’ve stood up for something, sometime in your life.”
It would be nice to compare the impact of YouTube and the success story there with those who are so quick to try and tear down the accomplishments of others.
In point of fact, YouTube did not invent UGC video sharing. Vidiac.com, FreeVideoBlog.com, StreetFire.net, StupidVideos.com and Break.com (then big-boys.com) all predated YouTube by over 6 months. YouTube just executed better. For their success, there were hundreds of other services doing the same thing. I agree that people envy YouTube, they did a fantastic job of focusing a company to a successful outcome for the shareholders. It was a gamble, they started later than the other companies, but they were 100% focused on user acquisition and did the best job of it.
Google understands that YouTube owns video, the most valuable advertising medium, it may not be sorted today, but when it does get sorted, they’ll stand to have the biggest piece of the advertising pie.
Youtube should just activate those invideo ads for every content creator, not just a select few “partners”. Stop that partner BS, let every content creator worldwide start monetizing their videos. And not at a rate of $2 per 1000 views, but rather $10 or $15 per 1000 views. They can make that, they have already shown that they can. Simply use voice recognition, user generated invideo comments, user comments to provide targetted synchronized overlay advertising.
Goole could be making $1 billion a year today if they would just activate that. So would the content creators. Imagine, in flipping the switch, from one day to the other, Youtube could finance a citizen media platform with the monetization level that is quickly going to be nearing old media revenue. I’d say quickly, within 2-3 years, Youtube revenue could become larger then old media revenue. They just need to do things instead of not doing those things.
Waiting, waiting, testing, that’s not the way Google should do things. Just release it now, hire more people if you need to make it work faster. Google should not wait any longer to monetize this revolution. Monetize it not only for themselves, so online video becomes a profitable business, but especially monetize it for the content creators.
Chinese Summary:
Youtube联合创始人ChadHurley周二在一篇博客文章中展望了互联网视频的未来发展。他指出，目前Youtube上每分钟被上传的视频量达到 13小时，这一数字还将继续上升。未来的视频观看者将在客厅或是移动设备上观看视频。Hurley暗示，移动设备视频将是Youtube的下一个发展重点。分析认为，移动互联网对于Youtube的意义远远不止使用户通过手机观看视频。手机本身也具有摄像功能，一旦通过手机上传视频变得简单，那么 Youtube就有可能真正成为记录用户日常生活每一个瞬间的平台。
Let’s remember that before Chad Hurley was online video visionary, he was a logo designer for Paypal who was fortunate enough to meet two engineers that actually understood the technology behind online video.
Lucky, yes. Visionary, no.
He probably saw Cisco’s visual networking commercial on TV, the one where ‘video changes everything’, and said, oh ya, that’s it.
Google can easily monetize YouTube? You should tell that to them because they are not aware of that. Considering that 90% of what’s on YouTube is either crap or a duplicate, successful monetization is a long way off, if ever. Putting that 90% crap on the mobile platform isn’t going to make it any more monetizable either.
Hulu may be playing the incumbent game, but they have the stuff that I want to watch, YouTube doesn’t.
Lots of comments on GooTube being able to pull revenue streams from somewhere. Again, I refer to the 90% crap. If you’re selling sh!t, I ain’t buying.
YouTube’s Mass Censorship (S1959)
http://www.yout...h?v=jPN1SmrQYxc
If you are American, please call your Senators to stop S1959!
YouTube co-founder Chad Hurley wrote a post this morning about the future of online video and YouTube specifically. Hurley notes that 13 hours worth of videos are uploaded every minute to YouTube (a figure we’ve reported before). And he predicts more of the same: more videos will be uploaded to the Web, more video creators will be uploading those videos, and more viewers will be watching them on all sorts of screens from the living room to their mobile devices. In other words, more of the same means more exponential growth of videos on the Web.
Hurley’s vision of the future, though, pretty much describes the world as it is today. You can watch YouTube on your TiVo, iPhone, or PC. But if you read between the lines, he does hint that mobile might be the next really big step for YouTube:
Our goal is to allow every person on the planet to participate by making the upload process as simple as placing a phone call. This new video content will be available on any screen – in your your living room, or on your device in your pocket. YouTube and other sites will bring together all the diverse media which matters to you, from videos of family and friends to news, music, sports, cooking and much, much more.
The mobile opportunity for YouTube is bigger than just making all the video in the world available in your pocket. Mobile phones are also the new video cameras. Once it becomes truly easy to upload video from your phone to YouTube, it could truly become the repository of every captured moment in people’s lives.
For all his visions of the future, however, Hurley still has to figure out how make money from all of those videos.
for Paypal who was fortunate enough to meet two engineers that actually understood the technology behind online video.
Lucky, yes. Visionary, no.
He probably saw Cisco’s visual networking commercial on TV, the one where ‘video changes everything’, and said, oh ya, that’s it.
reply
They have started on the plan. Looks like you tube now supports High Quality video uploads..
hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm QUESTION IS IT A STOLEN IDEA LETS B FRANK IS I SMART ENOUGH TO COME UP WITH SUCH A VISION
No, you is clearly not smart enough. Frank enough for ya?