Does Google’s new Chrome browser matter? Some people think it does. One of them is Lehman Brothers analyst Douglas Anmuth. In a note sent out on Tuesday, he predicted that Chrome would soon catch up to Firefox in market share:
With Firefox having gained approximately 20% percent market share over the past 4 years, we believe Google Chrome could gain 15-20% share within 2 years.
A lot of the attention so far has been on the possibility of Chrome being a Windows killer (by supercharging Web browsing and Web apps so you really won’t need desktop apps). But Chrome’s bigger opportunity might be on mobile devices running Android. Anmuth writes:
Chrome’s biggest benefit, however, could come on mobile devices if Google bundles Chrome into Android and gains distribution on other devices. We believe the simplicity and open-source nature of Chrome is well-suited to the mobile environment.
Both Chrome and the Android browser are based on WebKit and Google Gears. So they are very compatible. And Google Gears can be very useful for Web apps on mobile devices, where network connections can be spotty. (Update: Google co-founder Sergey Brin said that Chrome is coming to Android.)
Put Chrome on all of those anticipated Android phones, and catching up to Firefox will become that much easier.
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Well, I think for me its almost catching up now. I like it over Firefox already (except a few thing):
http://blog.gadodia.net/google.....a-firefox/
I’m not ready yet to switch from Opera to Chrome. I see 4 major features missing:
1) Google Toolbar doesn’t work on Chrome (how ironic is that?)
2) Contextual search works only with one SE at a time (default one)
3) No ‘Go to web address’ contextual sub-menu (very practical when text is not an url)
4) No way to save a session of opened tabs
Get these 4 features and I’m sold.
4) No
1) Google Toolbar doesn’t work on Chrome (how ironic is that?)
— Most of the features are inbuilt
2) Contextual search works only with one SE at a time (default one)
3) No ‘Go to web address’ contextual sub-menu (very practical when text is not an url)
–eg?
4) No way to save a session of opened tabs
— It does, although not advanced where you can name the sessions,save and later open any time. For basic session save -> Options -> Basic -> Restore the pages. For advanced operation try creating application shortcuts.
I won’t switch over just yet. But the only thing stopping me are the add-ons that I use in Firefox. Other than that, the only thing I will miss is the really smart zoom in FireFox.
1) Google Toolbar doesn’t work on Chrome (how ironic is that?)
- most of its features are built-in the browser - take a closer look (I’ve seen this Google Toolbar disappointment a lot of times already… take a closer look again)
4) No way to save a session of opened tabs
- it can, restores previously opened tabs on last session.
The merging of the address bar and search bar gives Google too much control over navigation. It separates companies and website operators from their website addresses and brands.
Companies spend heavily to establish and maintain brands. Google has just imposed itself between consumers and businesses. Direct navigation has now become proprietary search, whereby Google uses its discretion to filter out web addresses and domains that it deems less relevant.
I object and I hope you do too.
“The merging of the address bar and search bar gives Google too much control over navigation”
Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t Chrome use whatever search engine you tell it to use? It will default to Live or Yahoo if that’s what you were using before in Firefox.
Try right clicking on the address bar and selecting Edit Search Engines.
I tried it all night tonight on my wife’s pc. If it was available on the mac, I’d use it over firefox in a heartbeat. It can certainly improve…but it is crazy fast out of the gate.
It seems like it would be more at home on a Mac than a PC.
That is true.
Yes really fast, sexy , simple and .. with a great French interface!!
Every Chrome download is “tagged” with a individual Chrome-ID (so chrome has a serial number) which may be associated with your google account, the first time you log in using chrome. so even without any cookies, google will track EVERY request you do. (Next announcement: Google DNS?)
German source: http://www.datenschutzbeauftra.....-der-hand/
As the GOOG already said in the press conference: privacy mode is hiding your tracks from your family and colleagues, but your remain naked on the internets.
I found it telling that nobody in the press conference discussed cross site scripting and other techniques allowing third parties to monitor our tracks.
In the IE8 discussion of “InPrivacy” that’s at least a topic, though not all that clear either: http://channel9.msdn.com/posts.....n-cookies/ (third party discussion starts around half time of the video).
I think that this will do little good to the general public that will never know about this version of Chrome but I’m pretty sure that the id isn’t embedded in the Chromium builds (the developers’ version). You can download the latest one as a zip file from http://build.chromium.org/buildbot/snapshots/ (no setup, no Google Update).
As for Chrome’s market share, it will be interesting to know if it will erode Firefox user base or the Internet Explorer one. I’m betting that it will be half and half, but some more MS users that FF ones. I won’t use a browser without an adblock plugin so I’ll stick to FF3 and add Chrome to my testing suite.
a baseless claim is never hard to make… oh well…
Hmm. 15-20% in next two years?
I doubt. Do you think Mozilla & Microsoft are just keeping their fingers crossed? They must have sprung into action like a cheetah on trampoline. Chrome is good, but its too early to predict its success.
Google, for sure, is going to combine it with android. But the success of android is questionable. Anyway, I’d like to sit and watch.
Me too just going to switch and watch.
And in 2 years, if Chrome reaches to the level of present firefox, Firefox would be way ahead as its a matter of 24 months and many things and developments can be done by Mozilla people. They don’t have their hands tied up.
its already better/faster than bloated/fat corpse that firefox is
mozilla should really be worried this is gonna eat into its market share not microsofts (if someone hasnt switched from IE yet they probably never will)
Ok, I really am thinking that I need to test this thing more. Run it through the QA gamut. Everyone keeps saying how AMAZING chrome is, and my experience was mediocre at best. Now, all I need is a few more hours in the day to accomplish this… if Chrome could give me that I would build it an altar and worship daily.
Will they be taking the share from Firefox or IE???
That is the question
I think your answer is pretty obvious - which is why FF is scrambling into action.
Unless Chrome offers extensions like Firefox I can not image switching! The iMacros, Delicious and BlogRovr extensions save me tons of time each day. A little faster browser startup time can not compensate for that.
And I can’t see Google allowing people to strip out all the advertising like we can with Firefox.
Are you kidding? Look up the “open source.”
Unfortunately for your comment this is an open source browser… so if someone wants to create such an extension that strips out the advertising, Google by there own fault does not have control to stop them.
Since when does TechCrunch need some dumb analyst to come up with predictions? Are you MSM now?
Plus, extending “browser share” into mobile: what does that really mean? Of course, the mobile market is “bigger” in terms of numbers than the PC market; and of course IE and FireFox don’t run on phones.
Thinking that Chrome can in some way compete with Windows is just dumb. Seriously.
And the only thing Chrome will compete with, and destroy is Firefox.
Think about. People still using IE will be still using IE. They are too unaware to try a new browser. They probably don’t know other browsers exists. To them Internet Explorer = Internet.
Firefox users, the switchers, will no doubt at least try Chrome. And they will love its fast JavaScript, and fresh interface, and the rendering engine. For them, the transition will be too smooth. And they will enjoy the hype.
I’m only wondering now why Google extended their contract with Mozilla. Out of pity probably
Sort of a farewell gift.
One wonders how long it takes for Mozilla to just use V8 in Firefox if it is that much better.
They already have an improved JavaScript VM in place for Firefox 3.1, TraceMonkey. Results are a little better than V8: http://weblogs.mozillazine.org.....pdate.html
And that’s just with the basic TraceMonkey optimizations they’ve made.
Bober: “Think about. People still using IE will be still using IE. They are too unaware to try a new browser. They probably don’t know other browsers exists. To them Internet Explorer = Internet.”
Actually, no. For such users, *Google* is the internet. The blue ‘e’ is just the way to get to Google, aka ‘the internet’.
Google is in the best possible position to move those people away from using the blue ‘e’. Both because Google is already synonymous with the internet to them, and because Google can leverage its dominant position to push Chrome (suggestions to install Chrome alongside Search results, etc. - luxuries Firefox never had). Really the only thing that might stop Google from eating away at IE’s market share is an anti-competition investigation by the government (we can assume Microsoft attorneys are already drafting relevant motions to put such a thing in play).
Of course Chrome will also eat at Firefox’s (/Opera’s/Safari’s/etc.) market share. That’s a given. But I don’t predict the demise of Firefox, if only because of its thriving ecosystem of extensions, something Google would never allow on its official Google Browser (not enough control about how the brand gets perceived).
True enough, after saying to someone,
“A new web browser has been released”
The response was,
“Will I still be able to use Google?”
Browsers, search engines and websites are just a mish mash for the average user.
@kripken: totally disagree. the users you’re referring to want to get to google to search for stuff - not to download software they don’t need. chrome will make its living off of the same folks posting here who’ve already moved to browsers other than IE - e.g., firefox/opera.
I think Google will definitely catch up, with so many fans worldwide…
Considering that Google has added a download link for Chrome on their search engine homepage chances are that this prediction will be right on the money. If it doesn’t happen sooner than 2 years that is!
I am sure that Chrome is a great browser, so well done google-guys. What I don’t like is the idea of Google’s monopoly covering the Internet and not just search-engines (and its associated gross-margins through advertisings (thanks for keeping us updated TechCrunch, always a great source)).
I don’t like the individual ID coming with every chrome-browser, not good! Do I have anything to hide? No. But that does not mean that I appreciate Google to know everything about my private matters regarding the Internet. In the end: Google and its share-holders want to make money, no matter what.
> Do I have anything to hide?
Of course, you do. You wouldn’t be human otherwise.
Always remember: Jews, gays, Roma, etc had “nothing to hide” in the 1920s Germany as well. When Hitler came into power in 33 the lists were already finished for the concentration camps.
> In the end: Google and its share-holders want to make money, no matter what.
And that’s why you want to run around naked on Main Street?
Heck, I’d pay $100 per year for completely safe and anonymous browsing and I have “nothing to hide” as well.
Rather than founding Yet Another Browser, GOOG should fund Tor and/or JAP.
The new browser’s pretty fast. Regarding it capturing a sizeable market share, i think that will take some time. I mean, who could match up to Firefox’s record download rate? On the other hand, with Google entering the picture, we can expect some radical stuff.
Still prefer to use Internet Explorer 6. But who cares about browsers? Can’t we talk about more important things in the computing world? What about new hardware? I think you guys are so boring. I want to move to Israel.
Fuck off you moron.
In two years Chrome and Firefox will be indistinguishable - both open source so both will take the best features of each.
I have downloaded it and given it a whirl.
What I immediately noticed was the absence of cool add-ons — like page scroll (grab and pull) etc.
Cool for some stuff. Not cool for others — maybe one of these days it’ll have just enough cool gadgets, but not yet.
I don’t find any of the web browsers very different at all. They all only have subtle differences. I’ve tried them all.
I just made the switch from IE last night, and love it. It’s so fast! Contrary to what a few of you have said, not all IE users are unaware of any other product. A couple years ago, we thought that about all AOL users! I never saw a big dif between IE and firefox, so for me there was no reason to switch before now. I’m predicting that Chrome will beat Firefox in less than 2 years, easily. Just look at how fast people went to gmail, and started using google docs! I made the switch from hotmail, and ms office, and most people I know have done the same.
AOL (”Netscape”) market share in browsers is still 11%, see http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=9847
@angi: i guess google makes you do these things when you work for them?
I think a web browser is a simple program. It’s not a window into another world. It’s not a window into a server-side operating system environment.
A simple program indeed … Have you ever had a chance to take a look at the actual code of one of these ? Even Google programmers had to start with a lot of ready made code (Webkit, V8) in order to get somewhere.
Why do text editing in anything other than Notepad or Vi?
Yeah ! Why do we need Java when there is Cobol ?
Depends on how Google market it.
If they push it like the should (Google main page download link), we might see a 30% adoption rate within a year.
But considering google’s history and the fact that 80% of its products simply die slowly, falling behind and eventually become irrelevant, Chrome has a good chance of just being a blip on the early adoption idiot crowd, and die off.
I still pronounce that “vee” instead of “v-eye” …
I pronounce it “history”
I really think the google chrome has some big potential in the browser race. IE pretty much sucks if the majority of the public new about about firefox and it was a default install on windows OS it would be #1. Google Chrome has unlimited funding and has backed firefox all the way up to the chrome release. Google’s chrome will dominate in the long run i believe. For now they obviously need to fix some bugs. Some things weren’t working with my website http://thetechnicaltrader.net when using the chrome browser
Hah!
Somebody figured out how to crash the google browser (for 5 seconds at least)
http://raephrasing.blogspot.co.....ished.html
I like the last line: It’s the hidef of web browsers
“Actually, no. For such users, *Google* is the internet. The blue ‘e’ is just the way to get to Google, aka ‘the internet’.”
This is not only true for the computer illiterate. Questions on programming forums are often answered with the statement, “google it.” The most computer literate people in the world have no better way to recommend finding information on the internet than Google.
Has anyone thought that Lehmann did get it wrong alltogether?
Chrome will be a replacement NOT TO FIREFOX BUT TO IE!
Firefox users are very happy using firefox because for once they can’t stand IE then Microsoft, I’m one of them.
So really ….Chrome is trying to take over IE not Firefox which is GREAT news.
Forget IE and FF. I still think this is a sign of the eventual fall of windows.
way to troll post on your own blog arrington.
and you’re always pointing everything to the fall of windows. don’t you think if Chrome Kills Windows wouldn’t it do the same for OSX. Come on Arrington you’re an idiot, if Chrome is killing WIndows which is like 70-80 percent of the whole computing world, it would be easier for Chrome to kill OSX (a closed system as well not open source) which is of smaller percentage. You just dont want it to kill OSX because you use it. Moron! I hope techcrunch goes to the pool MIke. So you’ld become unemployed you POS!
way to troll post on your own blog arrington.
and you’re always pointing everything to the fall of windows. don’t you think if Chrome Kills Windows wouldn’t it do the same for OSX. Come on Arrington you’re an idiot, if Chrome is killing WIndows which is like 70-80 percent of the whole computing world, it would be easier for Chrome to kill OSX (a closed system as well not open source) which is of smaller percentage. You just dont want it to kill OSX because you use it. Moron! I hope techcrunch goes to the pool MIke. So you’ld become unemployed you POS!
Maybe in 10 years. Chrome is part of Google’s advertising platform. It is not a powerful browser - yes it has speed but no features. It can’t replace Windows because in the end Windows is providing the world with millions jobs. This scenario will have to wait.
You’re smoking crack if you think a new browser will single-handedly cause the demise of Windows. To say that a browser will compete or crush Windows is either the most naive statement I have ever heard or a rushed post that left out way too much detail.
The demise of Windows will require a multi-prong attack. We are always going to require an operating system on our computing devices, at least in the next 50-100 years. So how is a browser (that requires an OS to run) going to kill Windows? I can see how the combination of (a future version) of Google Chrome and Google Apps can have a significant impact on the MS Office Suite, but not Windows XP/Vista/7. Microsoft is obviously not standing idle on the sidelines; they see the writing on the wall. Which is exactly the reason Microsoft has been working for years on Microsoft Live and Microsoft Office Live.
I can also see how Windows could lose significant market share if Apple ever figures out the secret sauce required to get corporations to purchase Apple computers for the workforce in large scale numbers. I personally don’t think this is that hard of a nut to crack.
Google Chrome could cause the demise of FireFox within the next 2-3 years, provided Google continues to add innovations and incremental improvements to their new browser on a regular (quarterly) basis. After all Firefox is almost exclusively funded by Google. However, It is very possible that Google will virtually abandon their work on the browser just as they have seemingly done with GTalk.
By the way, when will Google Apps mature beyond Beta? GMail has been beta for nearly 5 years.
Imagine a world where Microsoft wins the favor for being the underdog.
FF is an irrelevant browser. Chrome is good, IE is Windows default, FF is just for people who dislike IE7 , which by no means is inferior to FF.
FF dies due to irrelevance, Chrome and IE compete.
You forget the attachment people have to FF extensions. Until Chrome has a similar system, FF will stay relevant at least for that.
You know what? I don’t really care if Google’s chrome becomes the next OS we all run. I just hope they don’t become evil
But once they get the crown - I hope the power won’t corrupt them.
This is not true.
It means that Microsoft and Firefox will do nothing for 2 years. And Google will keep on making improvements and make this the ultimate browser.
Opera is still a good product but not a powerful competitor. Maybe Opera will gain some market too. How about Safari ?
The browser is good, has speed and it is light. But soon the lack of options will force it to grow and loose that speed.
These ideas are only just to make a buzz and get some self marketing. Honestly I think that in 2 months the Chrome buzz will be gone and it will gain in those 2 years no more than 6-7 percents.
http://www.graphicrating.com/2.....-2-months/
If it’s taken 2 years and still doesnt run some existing web pages with Ajax then it doesnt matter how fast it is. It just doesn’t work. Was the premature launch too premature? A couple of dozen testers in the wild would have sorted out all these niggling problems but it seems that googles new mantra is launch buggy and iterate till fixed.
I think it’ll take much less than 2 years to achieve 20% market share. This is Google, remember it.
I like the browser its fast BUT it needs to on par with the extensions of Firefox like ad blocking, tab control and all the social bookmarking because right now its hard to use without these plugins.
I am very happy that google reader doesnt crash every 4 mins as it did with FF3.
One major reason for Chrome existence is to fight against Adblock which was a killer for Adsense. So you will definitely not see this coming.
Chrome is good for the first start. To catch up to FF in 2 years, will have to wait and see.
I personally think that it is possible. Think about the improvement and its advertisement of recommend browser from Google on Google search page of every browser.
It already surpassed it 1000 times………not a joke……..see my site stats…….chrome-464, Firefox-59……am just WHAT D FUKC!!!!!…http://techkiddie.blogspot.com/2008/09/out-of-world-stats.html
I really want to know how they came up with that number. They possibly have numbers from one day, the launch day. HOW? A FORTUNE TELLER?
2 years is too long, if it has to succeed it has to get traction within 6 months or people will forget and it will be a bit player, and that means a lot of work for the chrome team to get it right in short time, not an easy task especially with the sort of scrutiny they will be under.
I would shift now but for extensions, its stable over long periods of time, nice and minimalistic, fast and obviously engineered better. And there are little tings you discover as you go along. That’s clearly an advantage of starting up.
Compared to Firefox I am missing extensions the most, especially noscript, google notes, ubiquity and delicious. However the omni bar bar does have some of Ubiquity’s capabilities especially search, but not preview or functions like translate, currency, etc. For delicious I just dragged a bookmarklet from the delicious site to the chrome bookmarks toolbar and that works great. So am looking forward to some extension capabilities. But its a fantastic piece of work. and can only get better. Everyone likes speed and efficiency.
I tested Chrome. It is amazingly fast and has some cool features, but the design annoys the hell out of me (BLUE IS NOT EVERYONE’S FAVORITE COLOR), it isn’t very intuitive in some ways, and, of course, is missing every wonderful extension I’ve got through Firefox. It sadly doesn’t integrate any of my Google stuff, either, which is what I was hoping it would do most. There’s no full screen, actually, which is weird.
I don’t know. I’m not nearly as impressed as everyone else seems to be, and, being as it’s open source, I imagine Firefox and other open source browsers will become as fast as Chrome, as soon as the code is taken from the project and slowly but surely worked into their structure.
The browser market just got more competitive and interesting, but Google is going to hard-pressed to compete with existing browsers, especially Mozilla since it’s part of a “cult” to be a Firefox user. No way am I switching yet because I’ve got Firefox modded for extra stuff and I’m confident in its security. Chrome is sure to have some serious gaping holes so even if it turns out to be superior, I’ll be slow to switch.
It’s Lehman….. I am glad they are so good at analysis and projection and all. Need one say anything else? Seriously!
Somewhere I read a good argument for Chrome being a threat to all of Windows as it could bring the OS onto the net. That sounds way more probable than believing some gibberish from stuffy goons at Lehman.
How about that EULA? Is Google serious about that? I mean… it looks like great browser but EULA (e.g. paragraph 11) seems to totally un-acceptable for a browser. I just hope it is some kind of misunderstanding and it will be fixed soon.
Google’s Chrome is aimed at Windows, not IE
This is no longer about browser but about the an entire marketplace spread between desktop, mobile and web. With Chrome, Google’s taking a shot at Windows, not paltry Internet Explorer
I’ve covered this in more detail on my blog
http://sachendra.wordpress.com.....ws-not-ie/
i like google chrome better than fire fox or any other program
Now I read through the complete chrome comic: Chrome has not a single new feature that an end-user really needs.
The only innovative part is V8, and that is not from Google
=> FAIL
I’m not too crazy about the EULA. I’m going to look into this some more but this page (http://tapthehive.com/discuss/This_Post_Not_Made_In_Chrome_Google_s_EULA_Sucks) claims that the EULA gives Google an irrevocable license to use anything you post through the browser. You don’t lose your rights to your own material but by using Chrome you give Google a license to publish anything you publish. To me that’s a deal killer.
Wow, finding quite a few errors on Java heavy pages. Also a lot of spurious characters that don’t appear on IE, FFox or Safari. I luv Google, but Chrome isn’t yet ready for prime time.
Why is everybody saying that Chrome is open source? It is not.
Chromium is open source, but what Google compiled in their Chrome-Version, nobody knows…
http://code.google.com/chromium/
Beside that… what should I do with Browser-Wannabe? No extensions, no real bookmark-management and all the advertising on the web… ouch.
Back to Firefox…
Good catch!
I think Chrome is the ultimate browser for computer nerds.
The comic book presents so nicely the cool features, that you feel a sudden urge to install it and afterwards it can become addictive.
I wrote about a few things I like on the first impression here: http://blog.teamness.com/2008/.....owser.html
To summarize them, it’s about: speed, geeky-ness, cool, task manager, speed, auto-complete and, not to forget, speed.
geekness. you get that right.
To see where the internet is today, go to Google Groups and search usenet for the number of occurrences of “google it”.