Ten days ago TechCrunch reported that Amazon has shipped 240,000 Kindles. At the time, I noted that Citi analyst Mark Mahaney’s estimates looked a little low by comparison. Those estimates, published in May, put sales of Kindles at 189,000 this year, 467,000 in 2009, and 2.2 million in 2010. “It might be time for him to revise those numbers upward,” I suggested.
This morning, he took me up on that suggestion, doubling his Kindle sales estimates to 378,000 for this year, 934,000 next year, and 4.4 million in 2010. At that point it would be a $1 billion business for Amazon. (See his model below).
Mahaney notes how difficult it is to find out any information about Kindle sales because Amazon is still making relatively few of them and it is the only retail channel selling them. In his research report, he throws a shout-out to TechCrunch:
So we acknowledge being “out-sourced” by TechCrunch. But we believe the 240K number was well-sourced and believe reports of 40,000 shipments a month may also be reasonable. (Which could actually make our new 380K ’08 unit assumption overly conservative.)
As extra color, we believe that the TechCrunch datapoint refers to the number of Kindles that have been shipped to Amazon from suppliers and not unit sales by Amazon. There is always the possibility of Amazon not being able to convert shipments into sales and simply “stuffing the channel.
Since he raises the point in his report, I can confirm that he is correct: the 240,000 figure is the number of Kindles shipped. In the post itself, I refer to shipped units, but I did take the liberty in the title to refer to the number of Kindles that “Amazon has sold.” As it turns out, those two numbers aren’t that far apart. Inventory has been so tight on the Kindle that it’s sold out at times, and it remains the No. 1 bestseller in the Electronics category.
The Kindle also has the most reviews of any electronics product (4,000 versus 2,400 for the second-most reviewed product in that category, a Garmin GPS Naviagator). And Mahaney also points out that, on average, those reviews are now more positive (55 percent are five stars, up from 49 percent in May)
One last little update that I didn’t include in my original post. The Kindle was designed in Cupertino, California by a subsidiary of Amazon called Lab126 filled with former engineers from Apple and PalmOne.
This has been noted before, but I had never seen when Lab126 (and thus the Kindle project) was started. A search for Lab126 on LinkedIn brings up a bunch of employees, including president Gregg Zehr (who previously did stints as a VP of engineering at PalmOne, VA Linux, and Apple). According to his profile, Lab126 started way back in 2004, implying that the Kindle was three years in the making before it launched. That’s not long considering the hodge-podge of skills he had to assemble on his team before he could even get started (mobile device design, user interface expertise, wireless engineering).
Here is Mahaney’s revised model:
See all
Post
I think Kindle is an amazing tool!
http://blabtech.blogspot.com
It does make it easy to read online news and blogs, because you can forget about the computer and just grab your Kindle.
http://www.amazon.com/dp/B000F.....Y&
Can’t you do that on an iPhone or Treo or Blackberry?
I think all those devices could do something similar. BUT the Kindle makes it easy to grab books in the way @techdude said before.
I’d prefer the iPhone too but this is because I had a similar Smartphone for the last 5 years and a mobile-contract. But for “not-so-into-computers”-people it’s a quite good solution in my opinion.
If mobile phones wouldn’t be making so much progress, I’d think Kindle had a bigger chance of becoming mainstream. Although the size requirements are too big for a mobile phone, so it definitely has a market. Most people have said that it’s too expensive, the library is still “small”, uses DRM (no lending), it uses Sprint’s network but I think they overtook the eBook market and are pushing really hard to increase the market.
Virgin ground!
So will it be released anywhere other than the US anytime soon?
It has a CDMA radio in it the released version, so it wouldn’t make much sense elsewhere. Once they prove the market, I would imagine a GSM version.
It seems that Amazon will put them on display in Germany at the “Frankfurter Buchmesse” (Frankfurt Book Fair) this autumn (15th to 19th October 2008) according to german ZDnet-website and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (faz.net).
They say that they think there will be some “market” as the sales-expectations were excelled by far.
Does either number really matter considering that Apple sells more iphones in a month than Amazon sells Kindles in a year? Are people really going to carry around another device for reading books or would it make more sense for the iPhone (and other phones) get add book readers?
I call serious BS on this whole Kindle thing. I bet they haven’t sold more than 10,000 of the things. Aside from the horrible usability of the device (thank all of the ex-Palm guys working at Lab126 for that), why would I buy one of these things when I can just read books on my iPhone? With an AT&T contract, the iPhone hardware is cheaper anyway. Check out the Stanza application for a free e-reader on iPhone and watch the Kindle melt away in a pile of wasted investment by Amazon.
amen
If you’ve read for any significant amount of time on both an iPhone and the Kindle, I think you’d have a different outlook. Reading on the Kindle kicks all sorts of ass compared to doing the same on the iPhone. I *can* read on the iPhone, but that doesn’t mean it’s pleasant.
Has anybody here actually used one? i’d love to hear feedback on the usability etc. i personally cant imagine reading an entire book squinting at an iPhone and scrolling all the time to advance the text.
I’ve had a Kindle for a little over a week, and–like more and more users–I love it. You can check out the Kindle discussions on Amazon for more opinions. It’s easier to read on a Kindle than a Palm device, and has more functions. Avid readers especially like the Kindle because you can keep so much reading material on the Kindle, and get a new book anytime you want delivered wirelessly.
A huge difference between the eBooks and eMusic that, for some weird reason, escapes most analysis is the music does not work “stand alone.” Music NEEDS an electronic player. Books DO NOT.
As to the view that Kindle become the “must have” electronic gadget: fugly rarely becomes “must have.”
However the new “Readius” has the potential to be the killer app:
http://www.readius.com/
http://www.polymervision.com/
I’m a Kindle owner and a huge enthusiast. There are a few major reasons why I prefer my Kindle to some of the other options mentioned in the above comments:
1. The screen: It’s not backlit and looks just like a piece of paper, plus it’s about the size of an actual book. This makes it feel much more natural to read.
2. The battery life: I just throw my Kindle in my bag at the beginning of the week and leave it there for my daily commute to work. I only have to bother charging it for a short time once per week, give or take a few days.
3. The integration with Amazon: I love the built-in Amazon store. It’s great to be able to quickly and easily browse for new books whenever, wherever, and not worry about transferring them over to my device or downloading them to the appropriate folder.
4. Free wireless: I never have to pay a dime for my wikipedia reading or use of the Amazon store, and I can connect almost everywhere in the States.
5. Book prices: I love that I only have to pay 25-70% of paperback and hardcover prices, even for new books (and save myself a trip to the store).
The Kindle is not without its flaws, but I’m confident that those will get better with every iteration (like any other consumer electronic device). The core service and product remain absolutely amazing, and I can’t speak highly enough of them. I prefer it immensely to reading on an iPhone or palm device.
I recommend the Kindle to anyone who enjoys reading. I bought mine in April and I haven’t regretted it for a moment.
use a touchscreen tablet pc. you cant compare. there will be a bunch of them for 300 or less in 5 years. 10 years they will be free to anyone who will read one.
I *heart* my Kindle. Seriously…it’s wonderful. I think I even read faster than I did before, which is slightly scary. I’m also someone who LOVES the feel of a book and while the Kindle won’t replace books for me but it will help me dwindle down the massive amount of paper I have in my house (my husband is happier for that, I think).
I agree with the previous poster on the difference between reading on a mobile device vs. a Kindle. HUGE difference not just in the size but also the e-Ink which is much easier on the eyes (and battery life). I have tried to use mobile devices as readers and they just plain suck. Not enough real estate to be enjoyable nor enough power for long reading stints.
I have loads of free books on my Kindle (Project Gutenburg is my friend), a few manuscripts from my writer friends looking for feedback (general overview, not line by line redlines of course) as well as several blogs that I read regularly. It’s especially useful for traveling. I usually read at least one book on a cross country flight and I hate lugging two or three books with me. Now I just take my deliriously thin and light Kindle.
I even wish that Amazon would add a way for you to flag a book or send a note to an author when there is a new book out not formatted for the Kindle. Most books I want are available but every once in awhile I’ll come across one that I might have bought immediately for the Kindle but since it wasn’t available it goes on my wishlist for later. There is something to be said for instant gratification, which the Kindle delivers in spades.
Interesting to see these stats. As more and more people start to use the Kindle, word of mouth increases so it’s no wonder that sales are starting to really take off for them. The biggest hurdle for consumers at this point is the price. If times weren’t so tight it wouldn’t be a big deal but people may not be willing to fork over $359 for an ereader when they have to figure out how to pay (in gas) to get to work these days.
Will be interesting to see how hot they are during the holidays.
I bought a Kindle the first day they went on sale. I had been waiting for a few months for the fantastically rumored device to appear, and I have not been disappointed.
Some say the Kindle is ugly….Okay, its not as pretty as an ipod yet, but my 1st gen ipod really was a clunker compared to the svelte powerhouse I carry around today. But, I can tell you it works WAY better than my glitchy 1st gen ipod did, and delivers on everything I need it for.
I’ve read 40+ books on the Kindle now, and when I can’t get a book I want on Kindle, I really do get frustrated…not only are books significantly cheaper on Kindle, I love the clipping feature that allows me to store bits of important text, or make notes on a segment of text. The Kindle is MUCH lighter than a hardcover book, and easy to hold in the hand.
But the reading experience, that is where the Kindle truly shines. You really do forget that you are reading on an electronic device. It doesn’t make your eyes fatigue the way reading a backlit device does. You can read it in full sunshine, or low light conditions. I love reading it on the train, or outside, or snuggled up in bed at night - it fits perfectly in the hand, and the page advance buttons are in the exact right places. I also find myself reading a much wider variety of books on the Kindle, than I would otherwise, because the cost is so much less.
Without turning the wifi on, the battery truly does last the promised 25 hours. With wifi on, it’ll last 3-4 hours of constant wifi use.
The wireless capability on the Kindle is also a leader in its kind - it still makes me smile when I jump on the Kindle store (either on computer or Kindle), and my new purchase shows up half a minute later…can’t beat the instant gratification of that! I also appreciate that you can download the first chapter of any book for free - when was the last time you stood in a bookstore to read a chapter in a book to decide if you wanted to buy it?
Web browser - Here’s where the Kindle gets a little shaky, but the web browser is billed as “experimental,” and it is just that. The scrolling mouse on the side of the Kindle is serviceable, but for surfing the web, it means that you have to use a lot of clicks to dig into a site. You can look up any site out there using the address bar and keypad, which is very nice. I don’t use the browser much, because it is a bit clumsy, but in a pinch, I’ve used it to look up a phone number, or get google directions somewhere, and have been very pleased to have such a smart toy along for the ride.
Bottom line: If you read a lot of books, and especially if you spend a lot of time on public transit - spend the money and get yourself a Kindle.
I think the Kindle’s next few iterations are going to cause many more people to sit up and take notice, and authors and publishers have an interest in what is effectively a new distribution channel with tiny distribution costs. Amazon, in fact, can become a publisher, and contract direct with authors.
I talked to Werner Vogels, CTO of Amazon, exclusively about the Kindle on April 4 2008 in Amsterdam, and he told me a few hours after it went live that he realised he’d said something he wasn’t really meant to have divulged during the interview. I said it would not be transcribed, but that the interview was already ‘out there’, and that’s how we left it.
Audio Interview 5m 23s: Listen at http://thenextweb.org/2008/04/04/675/
Agreed. I think we’re seeing the tip of the iceberg. I have yet to talk to someone who’s actually used a Kindle and still disliked it.
It’s such a great device, and it’s only going to get better as they make improvements and expand their library of available titles.
THIS IS NOT NEWS AT ALL!!
CLEARLY, TECHCRUNCH SEEMS TO HAVE A “THING” FOR KINDLE.
PERHAPS TECHCRUNCH IS RECEIVING MONEY FROM AMAZON.
Actually, it is news when a major analyst raises his estimates on a hot product:
http://www.techmeme.com/080811/p47#a080811p47
To add to my earlier post I noticed just now that Amazon has added a “Tell the Publisher” button to books that don’t have a Kindle version!
And @Mike, TechCrunch is a blog, not a newspaper, which means you’ll get personal touches, and opinions and a more editorial style vs. straight news. If you go to the About section you’ll see that they “obsessively profile and review.” That doesn’t mean that money is going into the pocket from the vendor. It means that they have an opinion…and that’s why we’re all here reading–to find out what that opinion may be.
And is considered a “hot product” based on orders shipped–incorrectly reported by you–to the manufacturer?
I think we’re getting a little carried away here. (linkback) Believe or Doubt? Amazon will be selling over 4 million Kindles per year by 2010 [VOTE] - http://www.thriveorfail.com/0cc4b
The Kindle is badly flawed, but still a game-changer. Comparing it to an iPhone because the iPhone *can* display a book is like comparing early iPods to MP3 players already on the market. The iPhone changed everything because of its synergy with the iTMS (like the Kindle with Amazon), and because of its sweet interface (nicer than the Kindle, granted).
The Kindle is best for people who travel a lot, but also good for anyone who reads many publications at the same time. It will build more slowly than the iPod did, but the game is changed.
i’m loving mine. enjoy it immensely. work great, free internet, read and buy books from the road, and easy to carry around. kudos to amazon for a great device.
My wife, who can read two books a day and is a bit techno-phobic, says that the Kindle is the best gift she has ever received — and she got a lot of expensive jewelry and items women tend to favor. I think that’s the best testament for the device.
“Amazon’s unseen bestseller raises questions
Commentary: Kindle e-reader draws hype, but actual sightings are rare”
By Therese Poletti, MarketWatch
Last update: 11:11 p.m. EDT Aug. 11, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — There was a certain irony Monday when Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney jacked up his sales forecast for the Kindle, the electronic book reader developed by Amazon.com Inc.
Ironic because in Silicon Valley — the capital of early-technology adopters and the bleeding-edge users of all things geek — actual sightings of the device are quite rare.
http://www.marketwatch.com/new.....aspx?guid={0D9A9B01-7AB1-4B1C-BC0B-DC8DEF7878DE}&siteid=yhoof
Silicon Valley has no book readers any more b/c most of them are stuck with a computer!
It’s not clear to me why there’s an assumption of “hocky stick” sales in FY04. Were there a linear assumption, instead of 3312 Kindle Units Sold, the number should be 1210, resulting in sales far fewer than one billion dollars.
This model also fails to take into account competing manufacturers and newer technology that *might* come to market prior to FY04. I think it’s a mistaken when trying to be conservative, to not take such factors into account _and_ assume a 2.7x growth in Y4 above the linear expectation.
Thoughts?
The Kindle definitely seems like a good idea, and I suppose it was an inevitable product with the way music and video has gone super compact. I think I’ll hold out on the Kindle until I’m traveling more, and until they have an online electronic library (which I think will be coming soon once they make some progress and have more sales).
Jake
NoteScribe: Premier Note Taking Software
“If Your Analyst Gig Doesn’t Work Out, There’s Probably a Job for You in Amazon PR”
http://digitaldaily.allthingsd...../kindle-2/