A week ago, I put together a roundtable about the upcoming mobile platform wars between the iPhone, Google’s Android, and older platforms like Nokia’s. One thing I discovered as I was organizing the event was that it was really hard to find anyone developing Android apps other than the 50 people who won the Android Developer’s Challenge. (We tried to get someone from Android on the panel, but Google declined to participate).
Most of the 20 CEOs, developers and VCs on the roundtable were more interested in the iPhone, Nokia, and other platforms that actually exist as something other than a software emulation. Their attitude seemed to be: Show me the phones.
Pandora CTO Tony Conrad went even further, saying, “I need Android like I need a hole in the head.” To which Michael responded: “As soon as it launches, you are going to be kissing Google’s ass and you are going to be launching on their platform.” Here’s a clip with Tony and Michael going at it:
Another debate was whether the iPhone is really anything new. AdMob CEO Omar Hamoui (in T-shirt) argued that it indeed represents a fundamental shift because it is the first time most people are actually using the mobile Web, regardless of how long it’s been around. (This was basically the premise of the panel). Skydeck CEO Jason Devitt (in striped shirt) pointed out that the existing mobile Web is already a fairly large market, citing a figure of $700 million spent on mobile games alone. Devitt, though, is old-school (he previously founded Vindigo), and even he admits that he doesn’t browse the Web on most phones other than the Phone:
[More videos after the break]:
One audience member, though, nearly lost it because he thought we were ignoring the reality of existing platforms:”It’s important to talk to people in terms of building businesses. Not just, whatever!”
Except that, we did talk about other platforms. CrunchGear’s John Biggs argued that all phones are becoming smartphones with similar capabilities, and ULocate CEO Walter Doyle explained the pros and cons of developing for the iPhone (you can experiment with cutting-edge features) versus Nokia (you can reach a lot more people)
Below is the full two-hour panel as captured live on UStream.tv (via regular video cameras) and on Kyte.tv (via mobile phones) (Note: The Kyte video is in segments in reverse-chronological order):
People aren’t going to ever care about android until they line up the first round of phones.
americans are so self centered. iphone a breakthrough in mobile browsing? i mean come on… Opera Mobile is used by 45 millions users across the globe. Europe is by far more advanced when it comes to mobile technology. While americans are just discovering 3G, France is launching TMT. Yes, real numeric TV on your mobile phone!
And not some poor 3G bandwidth and poor quality. HD/Numerica Cable TV has been around in France alone for almost 7 years, while Comcast in US introduced it when, 3 years ago?…
Seriously, you guys should get a clue. USA is a small market. Think Europe (450 millions), India and China.
While you’re all jerking off on your iphones 3G, Nokia is preparing TMT-compatible phones. You guys are pathetic.
Haha, you wonder why Google declined to send someone? What about checking the title of your event once again?
Judson’s right, developers aren’t going to pay any attention to Android until consumers do. And consumers won’t care until they’ve seen one, heard they’re out, see it in the store, etc. It’s not a consumer reality right now. As for the apps, these developers seem to be focused on where they can put out the best applications.
That most likely is the iPhone platform. And perhaps if the best applications are on the iPhone, more people will be getting that phone and it’ll become huge. The consumer reality, however, is that most people don’t have the iPhone and have no plans to buy one. I’m in the DC/Baltimore area and I have friends in both cities, work in a company with tons of people. I only know one person who has an iPhone and one person who has a touch. I see that my friends don’t need the thing, I get along well without it. There is a lot of room for other platforms in this market. While in tech circles people might have these things, most people out there just plain do not own the iPhone.
I think you are right. Most people do not have these phones, and a disproportionate number of media people do have smartphones, so we hear about them a lot more. But I think the important thing about the iPhone is not the list of features that it has. If you look at the features list, it’s a rather ordinary smartphone. No, the iphone’s greatest feature is it’s usability, and what has people really excited is the possibility that perhaps this is the phone that will bring the smartphone to the masses.
My grandmother is never going to get an iPhone.. but my mom and dad… they are certainly considering it. Thats pretty extraordinary.
I think it’s pretty simple.
The iPhone is not awesome because it has the best software. It’s awesome because it has the best hardware AND software. I’ve been saying this over and over again.
Fundamentally the two major problems with the user experience any mobile phone is screen space and control.
You cannot beat the iPhone on screen space before getting too large to be portable, nor can you beat the iPhone on touch screen control and the accelerometer.
On the software end, Apple has been playing with operating systems for the last 30 years. That’s why they are able to develop such a powerful mobile operating system from the get-go.
And obviously another problem with Android is that they simply don’t have a phone, and if they do get a phone, it’s probably not going to be as solid (hardware wise) as the iPhone. With that in mind, it doesn’t make sense from a financial aspect to invest, neither time nor money, in something so risky.
Apparently the one weakness of the iphone is it doesn’t work well with long nails. Girl I know told me that. She hated it cause she could text message with her long nails.
Simple — Android need a better name.
Arrington is such a fucking vain person. Step down from the heights of vanity, you retard.
I have a hard time deciding whether Arrington is a shill (as he seemed to be with Microsoft’s hostile takeover bid for Yahoo) or just stupid. He has a tendency to blow his wad over sites and applications that will never see a single dollar in revenue thanks to a non-existent business model (Mahalo, Twitter). To argue so passionately about vaporware is simply bizarre. Either he’s yet again getting a boner over dubious tech (it’s Gooooooogle, it must be teh h0t) or he’s getting paid by Google to push it.
Why on earth would anybody be so fired up about shit that doesn’t exist yet, has no hardware, nor applications, if he wasn’t either a shill or stupid?
I agree with Michael that companies like Nokia have rendered themselves irrelevant (for the future) by sleeping on their laurels in terms of not driving real innovation. That is what allowed Apple to step in and make such a huge mark with the iPhone. If they would have been on the ball over the last few years Apple would have had a hard time to come up with something so much better that everybody wants it. I believe that android has the chance to make a similar impact simply by it’s open concept. The key to success here is to find at least one hardware partner that is as driven to create a elegant and at the same time powerful and versatile device as Apple is. One huge point is often ignored when it comes to mobile phones and hand held devices: They are a personal device that you carry around with you all the time, that become part of your identity an image when interacting with others, very much like a wristwatch or jewelery (to a degree). For the hardcore geeks it’s maybe mostly about features and performance but for a VERY large market it is also about image, lifestyle, coolness factor and appeal. Apple understands that better than anybody else and they’ve practically ‘invented’ personal lifestyle computing. Then they took it to music and entertainment and now they take it to personal mobile connectivity.
It is hard to make something work properly but it is 10 times harder to make something work technically and make it appealing to a broad audience in terms of design, usability and image. That’s the formula that Apple excels in and it is the area where I fear the most for android. They’ve got to find a hardware partner / industrial designer that is as obsessed with designing the perfect device as Google is with the quality of their search - only then they’ll have a chance to surpass the iPhone. Only then other manufacturers will follow the good example and we’ll hopefully get rid of button infested little crap boxes that fall apart in no time and continue to confuse most of us on a daily basis.
Finally, I can see one stumbling block for the iPhone by staying too closed for too long. Cashing in on third party developer’s work by only allowing apps to be distributed through the app store and taking a significant cut sounds an awful lot like the mistakes from the PC era. Back then people wanted an affordable platform that offers a large amount of applications. Today people want an elegant phone that’s easy to use and enabls them to really access the web on the go (and not just some crappy pixel games)…. and soon they’ll want lot’s of applications and extensions ideally directly from the makers of those apps. Developers will go where they have the largest audience / client base - it’s a race where the outcome depends on androids ability to show something soon and deliver a least one stunning device.
Nokia & Co will be the loosers if they don’t smarten up and get in gear soon. Finally, where the hell is Microsoft. They’re in their fifth (or is it sixth ) version of their mobile platform. In theory it can do everything from taking a call (craps out half the time) to launching the space shuttle. In reality it’s clunky as a phone, useless for the web, slow for it’s apps and crashes more than the pre-alpha release (the one that Steve had in his save forever
of the iPhone probably ever did. Wonder how many billions Apple rendered worthless on MS’s mobile ‘account’ by delivering something that works.
Am I to harsh with MS? Let’s discuss it.
PS I requested a while ago that Michael would block me from TechCrunch and he promised - no action. Do I have to yell at you like the guy at the panel to get blocked so I can focus on my job and get more work done ?
Dude, how many self-important, long-winded comments do you need to make? STFU!
Certain, I just feel very self-important and this is my way to express it. I guess my German heritage adds the long-winded element to some of my comments. Sorry, it’s in my blood. I suggest to scroll past if it bugs you.
I suggest you keep your comments concise. Blithering on like you have some extraordinary insight is disgusting, especially without any success to point to for example.
@Certain: A thoughtful comment, even if it is long winded, brings a lot more to this discussion than your 2-bit attack of him.
So I in turn ask you to please, as you would say, STFU.
STFU retard. Nokia is launching TMT-compatible phones this year. Go on jerking off your iPhone G, retard, while I’ll be watching HDTV on my cell phone. LOL
It’s SD. In France as in Germany.
The bottom line, like some are saying, is that the Android phones need to be out on the streets so we can gauge consumer reaction.
Right now, only a few people (I count myself as one of them) care about Android. That will all change though once it is released as people realise the benefits of having an open platform which doesn’t restrict developers and can be completely customised to the preferences of the user.
The iPhone will either be forced to open up or become irrelevant. Symbian has seen the writing on the wall already and is in the process of open sourcing itself.
I am going to be buying an Android phone as soon as it is released (provided it lives up to the product demonstrations so far).
what you call “restricting developers” I call (from a consumer’s standpoint) weeding out the crap/sh**ware/virii and letting me have at least one computer(-like) device that I can comfortably use without worrying about getting screwed by some well-intentioned but stupid developer and without worrying about “I know it can work on the NICEST device with this OS but can it work well on *MY* device?”.
also, let’s use linux as an example - STRONG OS, very open - in a broad generalization, it’s the android of personal computing. And yet, your average non-business consumer couldn’t give two sh*ts about linux, even after a decade of it’s business penetration. And android doesn’t even give the same cost advantage (a business doesn’t care about the OS on their cell phones because it doesn’t actually save them money and likely opens the up to more potential problems re: what I said above).
Naturally android will be great for developers. But if it’s not what the consumers want (or need) what are the chances of it ever becoming an iPhone killer - or hell, even a serious competitor.
Android is going to be manufactured by all manufacturers, it’ll work on all carriers and on all types of networks. Android will support all formats, all open standards. Android will work on $100 laptops.
The iphone is manufactured by one company that is making 300% or more profit per phone, the iPhone supports only one carrier per country that overcharges for the phone and for the service. The iphone support only Apple video and music formats, no DivX support and no Flash video support which represent 98% of Internet video. The iPhone gets bricked by Apple if you try to unlock it or install unauthorised third party apps on it. The iPhone OS is controlled by one company and iPhone apps have to be approved by one company which is rejecting any applications for software that compete with Apple’s revenue plans.
Obviously. The iphone is going to die. Android is going to win this quite rapidly. This is plain simple logic. The best open platform will win. Android is the Linux OS that we have been waiting for Google to make. Look forward for it being loaded on your next $100 ARM based laptop as well.
“the iPhone supports only one carrier per country”
check your facts much?
“no DivX support and no Flash video support”
technically, it’s quite easy to build this into the iPhone OS, but it’s stalled for business reasons.
I don’t think the iPhone will die, or Android will “win”. it’s not a war and both device platforms will perform 1m x better if they’re interoperable. which is inevitable in some degree over the long term.
“Obviously. The iphone is going to die. Android is going to win this quite rapidly.”
I came to the exact opposite conclusion. I really think Android will be DOA. I haven’t seen an Android app that looks even half as attractive as the iPhone’s ugliest app. The only place I see Android having a shot at “winning” is on free phones. Their software looks worse, and their hardware (unless someone really steps it up) is going to be bulkier and uglier.
Given the success of the Razr and iPhone, I think its fair to say that hardware has historically sold phones. The Apple app store may be changing the balance towards software, and app developers are really producing some beautiful and useful software. Where’s Android to go? The only spot for it, I think, is at the low end. And, if Apple continues to drop prices and expand carriers, well…
I don’t think the iphone will own this space at all. Yes they will have a large share but Symbian and MS will also have a decent share. The one thats not looking so great is googles, who wants ad supported crap on their phones unless its given to you for free. Some people need to take their valley tinted glasses off and look at what else is out there.
The killer feature for the iphone which noone seems to of mentioned is that they update the OS… imagine if MS did this and all phones on mobile6 could update to 7.
What a cool topic - last year, one of my posts saw 65 comments and more than 17,000 word count (excluding mine) from the likes of Google, Voda, dotMobi, MSFT and others. It’s finally hitting the US
I think the iPhone is stunning for industry for one reason - it has finally changed the development community’s perception with respect to how users should be accessing the Web on small screens. It’s getting them out of the ‘lets build specifically for mobile phones using WML. Developers have been until now, limited by their imagination, making too many assumptions.
Android will help developers bypass the Carriers. It’s not about open vs closed to me on this one. It’s about how to deliver the right content that’s appropriate for the device used.
Yes, the appeal to developers is great. But don’t forget, before the SDK, the iPhone was impressive in it’s own right. App developers will add alot, but don’t go to far in crediting yourselves with all the success.
Android? Wass that??? Heheheh…
Android is vaporware! Comparison to iPhone (which is at second gen) is silly.
“Comparison to iPhone (which is at second gen) is silly.”
- Yeah, and comparison to Symbian which is much further down the road, is silly.
Man, how self centered is the american mobile developer community.
Let’be clear on this: the mobile industry in the US is just a speckle in the world scenario. Not only it is tiny, but also it is incredibily primitive in structure, behaviour and service quality.
Europe, and Asia in general, handle service standards that would give a heart attack to US carriers. If americans just had a taste of this freedom…
…and there’s where Symbian (and therefore Nokia) rules. Waaaay ahead of the second player.
Anybody who wants to make a living in the mobile arena needs to understand this, and definitely leave aside the US centered, narrow perspective this guys are showing.
It is clearly a winning card to have 1B handsets in place…and that’s JUST Nokia. Throw in LG, SE, Samsung, etc…and is almost inevitable that Apple will repeat it’s pc history and remain a 5% share player. Hey, but anybody is free to go a play with niche products
When android does show up on the market, I hope I can buy it outside of the carrier wall. I simply buy GSM phones, and I never sign contracts. Of my 10 years using cell phones, I only figured this out 5 years ago.
Nokia is already dead. iPhone will wurvive. Google’s Android will kill WinMob. Why Android matters:
http://mikecane2008.wordpress......-watching/
I think interest will perk back up once the new SDK comes out this month and the first gPhones coming out later this year will make Michael’s prediction come true about kissing Google’s ass.
,Michael Martin
http://www.googleandblog.com/
One topic that I know wasn’t addressed at the roundtable/iphone-love-fest was language support which I find rather interesting. The iPhone, now being released in 23 countries represents a remarkable achievement in internationalization for an enterprise-potential mobile product that surpasses Nokia’s earlier achievements in this area. RIM/Blackberry ain’t even close.
Put simply, iPhone has a beautiful and elegant language interface. I can quickly swap between English, Chinese, Spanish, and French for memos and email, and the predictive dictionary is intelligent enough to know where to put the diacriticals - there is no single mobile device like this now that makes internationalization support so simple.
With international sales representing over 50% of iPhone3G sales the first weekend, the foreign market represents a tremendous opportunity for app developers which I did not hear any discussion on from the RT panel, save Nokia. Facebook has announced translation/internationalization of their app services. I wonder how soon they’ll also address this in the mobile app?
I don’t think nokia is dead, neither android… from symbian with android together something good will happen.. only time will tell
for now, iphone keeps the best, obviously
> pointed out that the existing mobile Web is already a fairly large market, citing a figure of $700 million spent on mobile games alone
Err… I thought the games were native, or j2me, or something else, not ‘web’ games? Makes me wonder about the rest of the piece.
Mike, you keep getting fatter man.
Time to highlight some web 2.0 workout websites and start using one of their programs. If you keep on this path your going to die in the next couple years and we will all be missing out on techcrunch. I’m serious dude, every time I see you you keep getting fatter.
If you say that again, we’ll get Calacanis-style fat-blogging on TechCrunch
spore & android - vaporware myths
First, I don’t think the media coverage about mobile devices has been fair and giving a good comparison matrix, so:
- iPhone:
– It exists.
– very good price (with at&t plans) and may be almost good price without plan.
– excelent hardware (multitouch, gps, accelerometer)
– excelent operating system: reduced Mac OS X (but without cut & paste).
– Good browser, or one of the best implementation for a mobile device (zoom, etc) except because flash is not included.
– Very bad and fully constrained license for developers and non open source.
– Good developer tools (for Mac OS X only…): xcode, etc.
– Good developer frameworks: Reduced version of Cocoa, OpenGL, etc.
– A central point of Application distribution: App Store, that can be good.
– Jailbreaked iPhone with Cydia is the best device ever, but not part of the Apple ecosystem.
- Android:
– It doesn’t exist.
– Google is lying promoting it as open source (like in opensocial), because the whole thing is not open source.
– We don’t know the price.
– We don’t know the hardware
– excelent operating system (Linux).
– Browser also based on Web Kit, but without a multitouch device is not as good as safari. And it doesn’t include flash.
– Developers must develop in Java. Good developer tools, but you can’t [officially] develop native applications.
– Very good developer frameworks (for Java).
- Windows Mobile.
– It exists.
– Expensive Mobiles
– Very good hardware (e.g: HTC).
– Good operating system.
– Not so good browser (except Opera) but it includes flash (lite).
– Closed source but not very constrained license for developers.
– Excelent developer tools: Visual Studio. Not free but relatively cheap for small ISVs.
– Very good frameworks (.NET) and interesting GUI future (WPF)
– You can distribute the application everywhere.
- Symbian? Blackberry?
IMHO the interesting question is: [Ubuntu] Mobile Linux will be fully available? it will have a nice UI? nice hardware? cheap?
Apple has currently a strategic edge in the mobile market, and it has many points of advantage.
I agree with almost all of your points except that I don’t know of the status of androids ‘open source’ or not? I don’t know how Google would get away with calling it open source when it’s not?
Also I don’t agree with Windows Mobile ‘good hardware with htc’ I own one for 1.5 years and its crap, which is half the device and half the os’s fault.
Haha - a silicon valley roundtable - can anybody say “too many egos in the room.”
what a great debate! you are both right!
This was painful to watch. I saw nothing inspiring innovation or moving technology forward. Why does this even need to be a debate? As if steve jobs isn’t aware of the “pc vs. mac” argument from the 80s.
The web is the platform, mobile os’s only complement the web. I’m sure apps will be rather easily portable from one device to the other. Furthermore, this isn’t the 80s where everyone needs the same os to share a friggin’ spreadsheet.
“Nokia and Symbiaan are irrelevant”
You are seriously smoking something mike. What a stupid statement to make.
Here’s what you’ll say next “Microsoft is irrelevant and windows is dead”
Pfffttttt
It was really my role to speak up for Android on the panel and I didn’t do an ideal job at it. I was the (nervous and new to public speaking) woman on the panel.
When asked something like: what is so special about Android? Instead of focusing on the fact that there is some leveling out of technologies, I wish I had expressed that what is special is that Android opened the gates to developers and innovation and openness in the industry. It is a strange and interesting time right now- in this moment, because we don’t know what “open” really means when there are so many players in the O.H.A. and industry who are trying to determine what openness means to them and where/if they fit in to this projected new landscape. Who will distribute mobile software and who will support and promote it? I believe Android, although not yet released, has already pushed the shift towards openness that the rest of the industry is scrambling to respond to (or in some cases not scrambling but adapting quickly to, like Apple). Anyway, I had more to say than I said. It’s tough with 20 smart, opinionated people. I have to say though, it was v. cool to be there.
I posted a blog entry with some thoughts about the mobile wars roundtable topics and event in general if you are interested in more of my musings (link below) and also, please cross your fingers for Cooking Capsules. Tuesday is the deadline for the second phase of the Android Developer’s Challenge. My team and I have been and are working very hard to land in the Top 10.
http://www.cookingcapsules.com.....table.html
HTC hardware sucks. Like ED… just doesn’t work. You cannot get viagra for HTC btw.
Verizon sucks because they wanna keep us in their GetItNow farm, they choose crappy devices to carry, and they wont let us have cool stuff like real GPS… its like being married to a woman that wont give you sex. Sure, its a woman but other guys have much better ones and you could have a better one too.
Android is promising but not here yet. Like the girl who is your friend and is always there for you and you have reason to believe she would really try to satify you good, but she’s not dating you yet.
Apple was the catalyst for real smartphone change but they are control freaks… thanks for the stimulation, now die. Like the girl that is really hot and let you release your virginity but will only give it up when she wants, how she wants, if she wants… and its usually not how you want it… and she has a deviated eye.
MSFT has a great little OS but needs to also produce a proprietary device to set the bar for other device makers that want to use WinMo. Like the very stable girlfriend who has a great future and has much experince satisfying you but is not attentive enough to actually do it.
I am a very happy owner of a very buggy iPhone 3G btw.
For now Android is just a work in motion. Until everyone can see something real and interactive from Android, it is just like a Hollywood Trailer for a feature presentation that hopefully wets the appetite.
Android could be even more unpopular than Vista when it is eventually released?
We should all look at what is based in reality for today and that is Nokia, Windows Mobile and the iPhone.
Plus what is all this fuss about Android being open and setting up a Developers Platform. From what I can see with the iPhone and the App Store, Android’s main selling point is now yesterdays news.
By the time Android is finally available for the public, the iPhone may well be ready to launch a newer version of their cool phone, that could leave Android in total limbo. Plus don’t forget about future releases from both Nokia’s Symbian and Microsoft Mobile.
Eventually we can only truly judge Android once a proper working model is released. But for now the iPhone with its App Store is the Mobile O/S Platform for all Developers.
Android has to be something special if that is ever going to change.
If Nokia is irrelevant you are far more irrelevant.
Android is yet another linux platform. Ever heard of LinMo?
All this ‘open’ platform jewels is yesterday news.
And go ahead play with your iPhone as much as you want.
But don’t have the illusion you are talking about technology.
Nokia is not irrelevant but it deserves to perish for being tyrant in the past.
“fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me”
They are NOW talking about making it easier to dev for their devices, and only cause they smelled their own demise. I wonder if they will still charge to dev for symbian.
If the hype that was android had not happened, would apple have released their half assed version of it? The app store is a grudging ability.
This is what they mean by, “we r so focused on this so we cant give you cut and paste”… they were nervously trying to copy what the android promised. they did a great job by the way.
But it’s thanks to android… do no evil. For that reason alone we must try really hard to still believe.
@infojock
Do you really thing that the iPhone OS is a “half assed version” of Android ? For real? I think you must be trolling, personally I think Android looks cool and has a good chance of competing with WinMo, Symbian etc.
But iPhone is in another class, they are years ahead of the competition and just like the iPod, competitors are focussing on the current model, by the time they’ve released their 1st and 2nd generation half assed imitations of the iPhone, Apple will have moved on.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t see Apple selling the most devices in this space, I think that eventually Android (or something like it) will have the lion’s share, but Apple will continue to be the most influential and will be the catalyst for change in the mobile space, just like they were (and still are) in the PC space
Consumers care the product utility but they don’t care what’s under the hood, as most iPhone users have never heard of Mach kernel.
The American mobile sphere has generally never received any kind of respect from Europeans and Asians because it has always lagged a few years behind. Once thing is for certain though, the iPhone has a mobile interface users fall in love with instantly. Symbian generally sucks a$$… with applications that look like the web of the 90’s. While I agree that Symbian has 500 horses under the hood, it is not a fun car to drive. Even Symbian developers will attest to this.
I think user experience is what counts - the jury is in and users all over the world love the iPhone experience. Nokia has been resting on its laurels and there will be a price to pay.
“..Sources close to Nokia say that Symbian is secretly regarded inside the company–even among high level senior executives–as a “piece-of-shit-OS,” explaining that “Finnish people usually have a very coarse language.”
A Symbian developer explains, “Nokia is more or less stuck with Symbian since it doesn’t have the competence nor the time to make a new OS from the ground up. Its only alternative, in practice, is to go Linux, which it is of course experimenting with, but it’s still not an easy path to go. ”
http://www.roughlydrafted.com/.....D8B30.html
Whatever it is…iphone is going to do the different things from the past. That is enriched features can do…