Four reasons number will be higher than Munsters estimates:
1. For the first time in the PDA market a multitude of compelling specific use apps will drive iphone sales. (think blackberry as one specific use app, then multiply this by factorial x). People buy the Blackberry for its compelling email apps. There will be many of these on the iphone.
2. The delivery Ecosystem around iTunes is second to none, and at the moment has no competitors.
3. Apple Marketing, enough said!
4. The device properties itself and now with full GPS and its User Interface is outstanding and creates even more opportunities for developers.

P..

Hey, you don’t have to!

Munster is the only analyst that is not an anal-yst – he’s the only one that gets Apple! And he’s being conservative, not otherwise.

People will spend big money in apps, not $15 but more like $50 because there will be so many cool apps and people will not stop spending money on their new awesome toy! And for Chinese and India natives in developing countries just as well as for people like European me in developed countries, the iPhone won’t be a toy because it is a handheld computer, it will beat the crap of the EeePC, MSI Wind, HP Mini-notebook and the sorts.

You fools are really out of the loop. iPhone v1 is no basis for what is going to happen. How can you compare, for instance, the monopolized US market, where Apple had to sign an exclusivity agreement, to China plus Russia plus India plus Brazil with multiple iPhone carriers etc.? How can you compare 5 countries with 75+ countries with multiple carriers and retail outlets?!

So many clueless comments!

India natives will spend half a year’s salary on the iPhone buying it on credit like Americans do for their cars, for them the iPhone it’s like a car for Americans! Apps for the iPhone is like shinny Alloy Wheels for American cars!

Not only the *current* India’s or China’s markets are *each of them* bigger than the entire US population – and they’re growing by 20 million per month! – but they also crave the iPhone much more than Westerners! It’ll be higher iPhone penetration in these amazingly huge countries.

The iPhone v1 didn’t take off in Europe because Apple tried to apply the US model there AND Europeans, being way ahead of Americans in that particular industry, shunned iPhone v1 for not having 3G! Now people have been hanging in there patiently waiting for the iPhone 3G for a year that anticipation is completely overboard.

Munster is not writing what he things will happen – he sees how many dumb-Ss are out there that can only look at the past and refrains to tell it like it is.

If you want to have a clue of what’s going to happen, take a look at the iPod, it sells 10 million per month every month! Ok, not every month, in Christmas it sells double that! That’s what the iPhone will sell easily with no ramp up like the iPod and a huge profit margin that it has against the much lower iPod’s one.

It’s so easy to bash at Apple innit? The problem is that you’re seeing this with the eye you have on your rear end – you’re one of those people who face the future with your back! Toni Sacconaghi? Case closed!

Apple has got the Mac business and the iPod business, it is now adding an even bigger “leg” of business, one that will easily outrun the Mac business both in revenue and in profit.

Just watch it happen. Apple has already ordered manufacturing 17 million iPhones to deliver ’til end 2008. AND THEY ARE (VERY) CONSERVATIVE!

We’ll come back to call you up on the responsibility – as if you had any!

Is this wrong to think that Android will just demolish the iPhone apps and any other SDK for a mobile phone?

Oh, Erick! The probability distribution of downloading software is not flat! It’s not some big roulette wheel, where customers make random purchases. Munster’s estimate is wholly realistic. With a sticker price in the hundreds of dollars, and monthly fees nominally in mid tens of dollars, you can’t see that on average as many 95% of the users might spend $15 just once in a year’s time?

Every iPhone customer I know — about 1 in 20 of my friends, which is about average for my demographic as an urban professional — has bought at least one app, ranging from simple utilities to language translators, and most have spent in excess of $100 on applications that they have found useful. Therefore, if anything, Munster’s estimate sounds rather low; I myself would estimate the top end might then be as high as $12 million, not a mere $1.2 million.

Heck, even for the freeware they’ve found useful they’ve made $10 and $20 contributions to the author. Have you?

Of course, my estimate is biased by the fact that my data set is purely people that bought their iPhone as a tool, not as a toy or piece of whiz-bang, shiny-er than thou kitch. I’m guessing you’re in or toward the latter end of that spectrum.

There are two kinds of software, Erick: Tools and toys. Software that allows people to do real things usually has a price tag attached to it; stuff that is free is generally for wasting time, or at best gives the illusion of accomplishing something, which, wait a tick, is actually the worst case of all.

To wax Mr. T on ya, I pity the fool that doesn’t sell his software if it’s a real and useful tool!

I think this is a faulty assumption. All apps are not equal. Some will be better than others, some will be in much greater deman than others.

Consider Apple and the iPhone, themselves. Logic says they should be failures but they aren’t. I guarantee there will be some for-sale apps that will appeal to most of the users. Consider the popularity of overpriced ring-tones by here today gone tomorrow pop artists. Believing that the average app expenditures for a year by iPhone users is not so crazy.

The truth is there is no way to guess the success because like most things Apple its all about emotional appeal and that just can’t be quantified.

I lay out a few reasons why I think so in the post above.

I’m willing to bet that even the most aggressive paid apps per user estimate will turn out to be low.

Plus, the record labels will never allow Apple to sell copyrighted music…plus no one will ever want to spend the time to download music…ASK IBM

Source: FFW to 5:00 into this clip…

http://www.yout...h?v=yGE61LMwaLo

Seriously, $15/user is minimal, and the forecasts on actual sold units is very reasonable, considering they sold 20M in 1 year, at $399, no GPS and no Exchange support, in 25 countries…at a price point of $199 and all the new bellsand expansion into 75 countries, 50M by end of 2009 is very reasonable