In the past, you could measure Microsoft’s success by others’ weakness. This time it’s different. Google rolls out a five-pronged disruption to the smart phone, the Visual Studio developer base, social media, offline storage, and Webtone pricing - and it bolsters Ray Ozzie’s hand. With a month to go, Bill Gates’ “transition” from 80-20 to 20-80 has Redmond shaking.
The old games just aren’t working. Windows chief Steve Sinofsky spends a ridiculous half hour fending off CNet’s Ina Fried with zero information on Windows 7 and way too much repetition of the purpose of the interview: to discuss the process by which information will be given out in the future. We get it, Steve. You’re not telling the media anything except the ground rules for what you’re not telling the media. Thanks for the heads up.
In classic media terms, this is a Microsoft death spiral story. Vista sucks, Apple market share grows, the PC/Mac ads win awards. iPhone 2 approaches, Android looks cool and competitive, the AT&T WiFi takedown looks like it’s spreading to the Blackberry, the N95, and maybe, just maybe, the other carriers. The Google Web Toolkit harnesses Java developers, the Eclipse dev environment, a growing number of APIs and Javascript libraries hosted on Google servers, and Amazon-slashing AppEngine pricing. Developers, developers, developers.
But each chink in the old Microsoft armor cuts two ways - as a minor glitch in the continuing revenue power of the IT-controlled Windows and Office upgrade path, and a strategic boost for Ozzie and his Mesh strategy. When you hear the open crowd attack the notion of trusting Microsoft to route our data a la Hailstorm and its Passport albatross, you’re also hearing the first stages in acceptance of the new Microsoft mantra.
Mesh abstracts devices and operating systems into objects that can be coordinated and orchestrated to deliver the appearance of a single or composite device. That’s the guiding principle behind virtualization, which permits applications to address these virtual devices as single entities while spreading computational load across machines, domains, and business processes. When you hear people both outside and inside attack Mesh as a synchronization technology, you are hearing political spin about a strategy that has not yet been fully implemented or acknowledged.
From a technical perspective, the largest chunk left to be finished is affinity grouping - taking the atomized identity and social metadata and organizing micro-communities that can act as power brokers in the new information model Mesh creates. From a political perspective, these groups will quickly produce revenue in much higher proportion to the broader less targeted audiences of existing clouds. As that power is increasingly parceled out via Silverlight to the enterprise crowd, Windows and Office become services to be maintained much in the same way that IBM uses open source via its Global Services group.
Key to the transition is the interactive two-way nature of the communication services of the Mesh and Google platforms. Google collects behavioral data from Gmail, Apps, and search, but increasingly the roundtrip between Gchat and Google Reader is producing the high value signals (gestures) that fuel affinity group formation and targeted feedback loops. Mesh atomizes the Google, Facebook, and other social constructs into virtual devices that can be combined from the ground up to attack viral opportunities as they emerge.
If that sounds like Twitter, that’s because Mesh is Twitter’s Plan B. In recent weeks, we’ve seen Twitter quickly come to terms with the underlying problem of their viral success, and particular the unique but transcendent power of swarm characteristics that the (mis)use of the service has created. The very real time XMPP stream that proves irresistible to Twitter power users and its “track” conversation enabler are at the heart of what Ray Ozzie and his team discovered when they first began testing Groove . Mesh leverages that emergent behavior as the central construct of a virtual device router.
The conversation with Twitter and its satellites FriendFeed (listen to the recent Gillmor Gang with the FriendFeed founders), Twhirl, and to some degree Facebook, in recent weeks has really been about Twitter’s sole asset: its people. It’s taken a few punches to the middle to soften things up enough to encourage more transparency on Twitter’s part, but now that the dialogue appears engaged via the media, the real work needs to begin in earnest with Twitter’s owners in the Track cloud. Because Track requires the availability in real time of a dynamic swarm of affinity members, that service makes maximum use of the system, which still can’t deliver it.
Twitter’s problem, then, is to convince its users that they will restore that feature. Those that reject that as important can remain secure knowing virtually every Twitter clone can provide the basic commoditized services they require. In other words, they don’t need Twitter, just Twitter-like functionality. Those who are addicted to Track and real time services know otherwise. In aggregate, as affinity groups, they derive much greater yield from their behavior and micro-cast contract offerings than the rest of the marketplace - better resolution of information streams, increased economic clout, and the Darwinian favoritism of swarm resolution over less dynamic and more static problem solving.
Plan B is not for Twitter, or even Microsoft; it’s for us to do. If Twitter execs respond directly to the marketplace with straight talk, we’ll likely stay with them. But it is incumbent upon us to begin Plan B now, by beginning the process of harvesting our Track/Follow clouds and readying them for the day when other more robust services arrive. Starting now, we use Twitter behavior that reinforces core constructs (140 characters, TinyUrl pointers, Track, asynchronous follow) while discouraging features such as @replies which encourage non-real time use.
Syntax that records conversational techniques needs to be baked out across our affinity groups, for example dropping not just the @ sign but the Twitter name as well after the first citation, only reading upon a context switch. With XMPP and Track down, we have no way to archive via Gmail, but Summize and FriendFeed offer workarounds. If FriendFeed quickly implements XMPP as we discussed on Friday’s Gillmor Gang (you decide whether that will happen) we will have some redundancy on our side sooner than later. Plan B makes sense for more than just tactical Is Twitter Up reasons, but also because Google has similar services available. Adapting and morphing the Gmail/Gchat/Greader tool set to emulate the core Track model is doable, but requires some incentive for the company to move up the stack.
Google’s recent efforts suggest they understand the reality here, that this effort will not be about damaging Microsoft but closing the sale with their users to allow them legitimate trustworthy access to all the data they are collecting. On Microsoft’s side, Twitter needs to end the rivalry between Exchange and SQL Server on the delivery side, and (to be blunt about it) put Office and Windows in their place down the stack. And every time Google announces another disruptive chapter in their creation of the collaborative social network, the champagne flows in Ozzie’s group. Welcome to Plan B.
Steve has many good points. I do agree the post is badly written but it is not unique when it comes to blogs. Hardly any of the posts on TC are elegant. But they are short and we’ve gotten used to bad web writing, so noone complains.
Im disappointed in the community of readers for so much bashing. It’s true it would have been best to post a quick summary and link to an offsite post but still. Steve posted this in the middle of the night. Being up at this time I’m glad there’s something like this on techcrunch to take my mind of off things.
Gee, I didn’t understand half of what was written. Seems like a grim painting for Microsoft’s future.
No doubt the tech landscape has changes over the last decade. However, Microsoft isn’t going anywhere, they just have to adapt. It takes time but usually happens, late in the game.
How knows soon we may realize that Microsoft will be inflicted with the standards symptoms of corporate shakeups.
Will stay tune.
A great article….
This article is terrible. What happened to this site???
Wow…that made no sense what so ever - and I follow the space really closely. I think the point is that the value is in the network and the connections is manifests, not the underlying systems that support it. So if you have a big network, make sure it is portable. If so, I agree. If not…you totally lost me.
Hey - Arrington - seems like most of the commenters really dislike SG.
It would be nice if you would confront the issue and tell us why you still let him write posts, and what is your opinion about his posts.
Eytan
I am getting really sick of all this hype about tritter and similar services.
I do agree they have profound realisations on the future, but I personally cannot see them growing very far. They simply do not have workable business models.
One day all this VC money is going to stop flowing. What then? All we know is that it takes considerable infrastructure to make this work. Especially if it actually does take off on a wider basis.
Advertising via these services will simply not work to the extent required.. so whats left. Will these servies be considered important enough to get all the users to pay $5 per month? Maybe. But its costs are definalty going to have an effect on it that no one seems to put into their formula for a utopian future.
I’m a tech who has worked for large companies making viable long term services based on digital media and internet technology. I cannot wait for the VC money to end and the Web2.0 bullshit to subside so we can get on with making worth while products. Not try to jump onto the next Web2.0 hype train and ride it on the upswing and jump off (Making shit loads) just before it hits the reality curve and heads for the DEADPOOL.
can somebody please translate the article in plain english
@72 William
The problem is not that Gillmor is “different”. The problem is that what Steve does is start with a stream of consciousness containing a very weak point, and fill it with embellishments and inside references to the point where it becomes a brain teaser for fellow pundits.
Most people (yes even TC readers) don’t have time to decipher this, however it could still be a fun distraction if it contained any real insight. I was really trying until he brought up Twitter. Now I don’t follow a lot of tech news because I’m too busy building technology, but suggesting Twitter is in any way disruptive for the likes of Microsoft and Google seems just utterly bizarre. First you have to assume that Twitter is going to find some use among normal people, which I think is still quite a leap, and not something on which to base theories of Microsoft doom.
I think it’s time for an editorial here about the idea that Twitter is just a fad and actually doesn’t provide enough value to be sustainable as a business. I don’t necessarily believe that, but it’d be a good starting point for a return to sanity around here.
Well, there’s 3 minutes of my life I won’t get back. Think I’ll check out GigaOm for something intelligent to read.
I saw this article this weekend when I was jet lagged, and thought, “I’d better come back to read it when fresh.”
Reading it now doesn’t help, unfortunately. Their could be a really interesting thesis here, but it feels like I’ve been handed random paragraphs from a much longer article. Key concepts aren’t explained even in passing (”80-20 to 20-80″?). Many connections drawn aren’t supported enough to make them even mildly persuasive (e.g., Microsoft Mesh to virtualization).
So Steve, whatever your point was here, I don’t think you conveyed it. I’m sure it worked in your head, but it’s not working in print. And jumping in to tell the readers that they’re the ones at fault isn’t helping.
I actually think this Gillmor post is an improvement (or maybe I’m just learning Gillmor-ese). There is a Cloud Computing battle brewing on the horizon; and Microsoft will enter someday (with Mesh, or something else).
Twitter is showing that even with 4 smart developers, experience counts in building high-scale communication services - if you don’t have it, your site will melt under unexpected loads.
I can believe Google has the know-how to do these things right. Amazon is climbing that experience ladder too. But Microsoft seems only now to be getting in the game. This will be interesting to watch.
The Darwinian favoritism of crowdsourcing has spoken: this is a verbose pile of mentally challenged crap.
where’s Duncan when you need him?
could have been 1/3 the length, and 3 times more informative. Paid by the buzz-work I think.
Started by skimming the concluding paragraph and saw this nonsense, first thing:
“On Microsoft’s side, Twitter needs to end the rivalry between Exchange and SQL Server on the delivery side, and (to be blunt about it) put Office and Windows in their place down the stack.”
You’re talking gibberish and (to be blunt about it) embarrassing yourself. Indeed, the article is so bad that it reads as if you accidentally posted a rough draft rather than the final revision. Really, this isn’t publication quality work.
Mike, this is an inflection point for TechCrunch. You’ve just inked an amazing deal with the Washington Post and allowing substandard posts like this to tarnish your brand could really do some damage. You may want to consider establishing a stricter review process to avoid having overly biased or unfinished posts like this one see the light of day.
Was the author of this TechCrunch article high on:
1) crack
2) speed
or just wasted off his ass?
Reading the comments here affirms my general suspicion that with some notable and welcome exceptions, nuance doesn’t play any better with techheads than it does in politics. That’s too bad. After all that money spent on a decent education, it would be good to use it.
If Twitter ever turns XMPP back on along with the ‘track’ feature, I’d suggest some of you folks give it a try. Or not. But really, if you don’t care for his writing, skip it. Why take the time to write a comment that’s nothing more than an effort to trash someone?
For a minute I thought I was on Digg.
I’m most interested in this bit:
“From a technical perspective, the largest chunk left to be finished is affinity grouping - taking the atomized identity and social metadata and organizing micro-communities that can act as power brokers in the new information model Mesh creates”
In (slightly more) layman’s terms Steve is suggesting that Live Groups will be an API that allows us to define groups of people and assign permissions for those groups to access portions of our data on Mesh. You can see the seeds of these fruits at http://consent.live.com
-Jamie
Steve, I got it first time through. Then again, I’m sitting here “waiting for the day there is no refresh button”.
The conclusion I see, and the ONLY reason twitter means anything at all, is not that it is a huge step backwards, as was noted in a comment above. Rather, it’s the present day virtual reality Reaching back to the physical, and trying to connect it. Twitter represents one of the beginnings of the Real-Time Web.
Interesting plans…
That was confusing. I tried to get how the disparate elements of this article were cohesive and coherent– I really tried– but just couldn’t.
Steve Gillmor rides again! I have been following Steve speak for several years now and the more I begin to understand and attempt to get my hands around this object; the larger the object becomes. Mess, gTalk, Twitter, gMail, gestures, affinity groups, et all = VRM and the converse is true. For that reason you can begin to understand VRM by deciphering Steve speak or you can better understand Steve speak by deciphering VRM.
It may seem it is always Twitter, Twitter, Twitter but Twitter at least how Steve uses it is not “Twitter” but a powerful tool or key piece in assembling the VRM Project/Ideal/World.
The old Chinese Proverb, “May you live in interesting times”, is often interpreted as a curse. Steve will continue to push for (our) understating of these interesting times and we ignore him at our peril. Now is the time where “the user is in charge”, let’s not fuck it up.
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microsoft is still a monster corporation….and a lot of people are still locked down with windows and office, i know many cases where sme’s still use windows 98 and earlier and way out-dated versions of office
as for me, i shed as many microsoft shackles as i can along the way