With oil prices so high, how much would it cost to convert every registered car in America to an electric vehicle? Nothing, according to computer scientist Philip Greenspun. Well, nothing more than we are spending already in oil.
He figures that if we took the $400 billion that Americans spend every year on oil that goes into cars, we could use that money instead to pay the interest on an $8 trillion loan. That would be more than enough to swap out the 250 million registered cars in the country with electric vehicles, and still have trillion of dollars left over to start building new power plants based on renewable or nuclear energy. (But even if we stick with coal plants, they are still more energy efficient than car engines). Here is his math:
* total oil consumption in the U.S.: 21 million barrels every day (CIA Factbook)
* cost per barrel: $130
* days in year: 365
* total spent per year: $1 trillion
* percentage of oil consumed by passenger cars: 40
* total spent per year on oil for passenger cars: $400 billion
* at 5 interest, how much we could we borrow and pay $400 billion every year in interest: $8 trillion
* number of registered cars in the U.S.: 250 million (Wikipedia)
* cost of a new electric car, if mass-produced: $20,000
* value of a used car, if exported to Latin America or China: $5,000
* cost to upgrade average existing American car to a brand-new electric car: $15,000
* number that could be converted for $8 trillion: more than 500 million cars (i.e., twice as many as we have now)
Okay, so that wouldn’t pay for the $100,000 Tesla electric sports car pictured above (even assuming that it fixes its transmission problems). But with a $15,000 to $20,000 subsidy, we should get electric cars that are a little bit sexier than the one pictured at left.
Why he wants to export our carbon-spewing junkers to China and Latin America, though, is beyond me. That’s just a recipe for speeding up global warming. They need electric cars too.
Who Killed the Electric Car is propaganda for idiots. You may as well go watch Spare Change.
I’m surprised nobody mentioned the Progressive Automotive X PRIZE which is a competition for teams to compete to bring to market a 100 MPGe (energy equivlaent) vehicle. More info at http://www.progressiveautoxprize.org/
Silicon valley folk can save the environment just by resisting a yearly computer purchase!
http://www.lovethe1yourewith.com
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfN4CTwB3Pk
Sorry my friends, but the largest Latin American country namely Brazil, strictly prohibits the importation of used cars…. and new ones run flex, pure ethanol or gasoline. Why not make scrap metal out of your cars.
@44 Alex Campbell, what kind of electric car do you own?
The 3/4 view of the Tesla pictured is probably the nicest view of the car. The rear though looks like an ugly mess. Only 75miles on a full charge w/100k battery life–not very good. What percentage of the batteries can be recycled as thousands of them are requred per car.
I’m hoping that someone comes out with a more practical, cost-effective all electric vehicle.
Anyone checked out the Aptera? Made-in-USA brilliance:
http://www.aptera.com/
In production later this year. First 1200 to be produced already sold out. Plug-in Hybrid (3 wheels, so you can drive it in the HOV lane, qualifies as a motorcycle) costs about 30k, and gets 100-120 MPG.
GREAT piece. Thanks!
Except there’s a massive oversight in this math: If the demand for oil drops massively because of a massive change to electric cars, the price of oil will drop massively as well.
And then where’s the math? There’s got to be some equilibrium.
This Green product review site has:
1) Huge amount of information about the various viable and yet to be released EV options
2) Analysis of emissions of gas, hybrid electric, and pure electric cars using various sources for electricity generation.
Great stuff. And wow, some serious ignorance among the commenters…shocking, hah.
@34, The current administration spent both terms getting us deeper into this mess and deeper into debt. As to the next one, I don’t have much hope there either, but they can’t do much worse…
@43, Actually a recent federal study indicated that if everyone in the US had a PHEV, we would could power 80% of them on the current grid.
@58, Do you think everyone is going to switch? Demand will continue to rise while production continues to fall, if only because of expanded worldwide demand and the need for plastics, fertilizer, and other petroleum products.
And if you convert your car to solar electricity (Solar Electric System kit costs 4,500$) then you can travel 15 to 20 miles/ day using sun’s energy. No need to use coal also.
http://www.solarelectricalvehicles.com
Average commute by American to work is 16 miles one way.
The exportation of used cars for $5k was meant to be the depreciated future value of the electric cars. Hence the mass production cost is $20k but the cost to upgrade to electric is $15k.
It’s amazing how stupid this guy’s argument is. There ain’t no EV costong $20,000 that’s even remotely equivalent to a gas powered car. A battery pack that will last 10 years would cost over $20,000 all by itself and stil wouldn’t provide anything other than a car that has a driving radius of a mere 50 miles. Calling such a vehicle a viable alternative is pure fraud. Admit it, folks, just an electric car’s batteries will cost way, way more than $4 gasoline. Why are you folks shilling for this crappy technology? Do you all own stock in some of these fly-by-night electric car companies? A plug-in is the only technology that makes any economic or environmental sense .
Battery-only electrics are pure nonsense until you can produce a battery
practical enough to provide a decent driving range and fast recharge. And don’t push that idiotic Project Better Place swapping scheme -it merely increases the cost of those batteries, which already makes the electric car
not acceptable. At best, the EV is a niche car that can only function as a second car. Guess what? I’m not about to start buying and manitaining two cars. Youy people simply ignore the 1001 problems that come with a crappy technology like the current EVs. Shwo me a decent affordable battery, then you can start hawking the technology without me calling you a fraud and a con.
There’s a long, not-so-proud, history of the developed world sending dangerous old crap to the developing world when it is no longer wanted. There was at least one case where vast quantities of condemned possibly-HepC-infected bloody was sent to Latin America.
I quite like the idea of electric cars. There was one outside my office the other day; nice and quiet. Of course, I don’t drive myself, so I suppose I don’t have the full perspective…
@60
Actually Bush rolled out an energy plan right after taking office, but most of you said no due to something about it being behind closed doors and they didn’t want the environmentalist there.
Just so you pro electric vehicle folks know, here’s what a cadmium mine looks like (duh, ‘what’s Cadmium?’ responds half the crowd):
http://www.nmenvirolaw.org/cases/molycorp.htm
Nice american comment: EXPORT your trash to Latin America and China.
You arrogant lifestyle is still top hanking when it comes to carbon footprint, so top pointing fingers at raising economies and take care of your garden first!
it has to be a global solution, not a “export your trash to the neighbours” solution.
@Paul (66): We all know who makes chocolate easter eggs… There is no need to be so condescending.
Stupid liberals.
The batteries in electric cars are horrible for the environment.
As per Wired:
“Pound for pound, making a Prius contributes more carbon to the atmosphere than making a Hummer, largely due to the environmental cost of the 30 pounds of nickel in the hybrid’s battery. Of course, the hybrid quickly erases that carbon deficit on the road, thanks to its vastly superior fuel economy.
Still, the comparison suggests a more sensible question. If a new Prius were placed head-to-head with a used car, would the Prius win? Don’t bet on it. Making a Prius consumes 113 million BTUs, according to sustainability engineer Pablo Päster. A single gallon of gas contains about 113,000 Btus, so Toyota’s green wonder guzzles the equivalent of 1,000 gallons before it clocks its first mile. A used car, on the other hand, starts with a significant advantage: The first owner has already paid off its carbon debt. Buy a decade-old Toyota Tercel, which gets a respectable 35 mpg, and the Prius will have to drive 100,000 miles to catch up.”
Oil is the best fuel in the world and there’s plenty of heavy sour waiting to be refined.
I started wildcatting in 1973 and have been in the industry through its ups and downs.
Oil paid for my home in Carlton Woods, my Rolls Royce, my wife’s plastic surgery and my daughter’s Yale law degree.
And no matter what Al Gore and the rest of you ecofascists and ecohippies say, it will pay for my new private jet next year.
Enjoy that $5 gas this summer, Erick.
Electic cars still need juice. Maybe we could spend that extra trillion on electricity. Its a fun perspective, but still really dumb.
Unfortunately, the lobbyst have too much control over the whitehouse and congress. Finally they voted to increase mpg for cars (just a few months ago if I remember correctly). Too bad we all have to suffer until enough momentum for change occurs and alternative energy research is taken seriously.
He probably doesn’t believe in the global warming myth
The incentive is to remove dependence on foreign oil. You still get that if you sell all your cars to the developing world.
Part of the reason that we’re in trouble is Jerry Cooper. People like him driving around in their trucks that get 8-12 mpg complaining about someone trying to make our country better. This is an excellent oppurtunity for US innovation in this world market. If we can mass produce an electric car that is safe and reliable, other countries would buy our cars. But no. Jerry and his pack of ignorant friends want to drive our country into the ground. Nice.
Zap’s electric cars are a good option and they have something for every requirement. Some of their upcoming products, the ZAP-X and the Alias are definitely sexy too.
@sodapop,
You said:”I did the math: on a $4 gallon of tax the oil companies make about 30¢ while the feds, state and local gov makes a total of 72¢ (Santa Clara County, CA) … note: if you think oil company profits are outrageous, government gets TWICE as much.”
Ummm… To the government, those aren’t profits. There’s a HUGE difference. That money goes to pay for the roads your drive your cars on, the bridges, the police that patrol the roads, and on and on… Our government is not waist deep in cash at the moment. If you haven’t read the news lately…he oil companies are.
Your analogy is silly, making your math irrelevant.
I think the EV is dead, simply because it is something you have to BUY. Face it, we need something that will take the place of gasoline without increasing the carbon footprint (or better yet, decreasing the CF) left by most vehicles now on the road. This “substitute” must retro-fit to those same vehicles the article author wants to replace.
One substitute that would help without raising the price of other essentials (like food) can be found on anyone of the videos at this link http://www.youtube.com/results.....arch_type=
If we can lower the cost and foreign dependency of one type of fuel (diesel), this would help us to more easily focus on a substitute for the other kind of fuel.
The key is, we need to start NOW. We’ve already wasted 35 years from our first hand writing on the wall. Let’s not waste another 35 years arguing about what kind of help we need (environmentally, fiscally, politically, etc.)
Build these diesel “farms” NOW, by the thousands!
Stupid Americans would rather build warships, bombers, rocketsw and missles than an interstate rail system, much less buy ourselves a fleet of electric cars. There is no incentive for this government to make the changes because the military and security industrial complexes blackmail, extort, manipulate, and propagate fear and loathing about who might hurt us. The real culprit is ourselves. I can’t wait to issue the bonds to build that super highway between Mexico and Canada….I hope they include rail. Stupid Americans….hoodwinked…..they have hoodwinked you all.
Don’t you have to plug an electric car in to charge it?
So where’s that electricity coming from? Either a coal or oil burning power plant.
What we need is smaller more efficient gas burning cars. There was a carburetor that could get 100 miles/gallon invented decades ago but the oil companies bought the patent and shelved it. As long as there’s huge profits involved, we won’t find a good solution. It’s about making money, not being ecologically sound.
Just another trend like the rain forests were in the 90’s. Never hear anything about those now.
Maybe you lucky USA gas guzzlers should be reminded that here in UK we have to pay the equivalent of 8 dollars and 90 cents per US gallon of petrol.
I drive a Landrover Discovery with a 3.9L V8 engine and to fill it with petrol costs over 100 pounds for 85L (near enough 200 US dollars) and for that I get about 250 miles.
Unlike most people I NEED a big engine because I tow a trailer for my business. Most people drive quite short distances most of the time and could easily use an electric car even with a range between charges of only 50 miles.
What we really need are hydrogen fuelled vehicles but of course the hydrogen has to be made using electricity, but that can be a good way to use “off peak” power as national grid electricity cannot be stored in the conventional sense.
Things will work their way through. The next thing people will complain about is the shortage of nuclear fuel, it is not an infinite resource.
We need to plan better to live closer to our place of work and to schools and shops. Because of bad planning people spend too much time in cars driving between affordable housing and their workplace.
I could go on and on…….
Cycle a bicycle
How much does it costs to convert a (2000 or so) newer car to electric or hybrid?
Just wonderin: if 40% of consumption is from cars, whats the rest 60%?