Comments on: Why ComScore’s Google Paid Click Estimates Are Not Predictive Of Google’s Revenues http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/ Startup and Technology News Thu, 24 Jul 2008 12:00:11 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: jehutson.com » Blog Archive » IAC earnings, Todays Online Economy http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2238475 jehutson.com » Blog Archive » IAC earnings, Todays Online Economy Wed, 30 Apr 2008 17:23:16 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2238475 [...] fiasco resulting from comScore’s under reporting of Google’s clicks was a good representation of how the internet is still new to many big players. ComScore, regarded [...] [...] fiasco resulting from comScore’s under reporting of Google’s clicks was a good representation of how the internet is still new to many big players. ComScore, regarded [...]

]]> By: Scott http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2211965 Scott Tue, 22 Apr 2008 13:41:06 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2211965 Michael, You're right and I stand corrected. My apologies. Scott Michael,

You’re right and I stand corrected. My apologies.

Scott

]]> By: Michael Arrington http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2210022 Michael Arrington Tue, 22 Apr 2008 08:12:20 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2210022 Scott - the image is from the comscore blog post. Scott - the image is from the comscore blog post.

]]> By: deb http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2209334 deb Tue, 22 Apr 2008 05:29:05 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2209334 when do people start thinking out of Google? don't get biased Erick. when do people start thinking out of Google? don’t get biased Erick.

]]> By: Son Nguyen http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2209259 Son Nguyen Tue, 22 Apr 2008 04:28:50 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2209259 Google should thank ComScore for the stock jump because it's not all about financial numbers, 50% (or more) is managing expectation (psychological impact) Google should thank ComScore for the stock jump because it’s not all about financial numbers, 50% (or more) is managing expectation (psychological impact)

]]> By: nemrut http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2209222 nemrut Tue, 22 Apr 2008 04:03:44 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2209222 So why did TechCrunch never question nor investigate Comscore's methodology. They weren't even in the same ball park with their estimates yet had falsely led everyone in the industry to believe that their traffic monitoring/analysis was accurate. The real lesson here is that you cant trust anyone to tell the truth because everyone has an agenda and profit motive... So why did TechCrunch never question nor investigate Comscore’s methodology. They weren’t even in the same ball park with their estimates yet had falsely led everyone in the industry to believe that their traffic monitoring/analysis was accurate.

The real lesson here is that you cant trust anyone to tell the truth because everyone has an agenda and profit motive…

]]> By: comScore的预测为何谬以千里 | SilenceWolf http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2209218 comScore的预测为何谬以千里 | SilenceWolf Tue, 22 Apr 2008 04:01:32 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2209218 [...] 上周五，Google公布了第一季度财报，可以说是全线飘红，收入52亿美元，同比增长了42%，比2007年第4季度增长了 7%。特别需要提出的是，付费链接点击量同比增长了20%，远远超过comScore的增长1.8%的预测。为什么以comScore为代表的数据分析公司的预测会如此“离谱”呢？今天Techcrunch给出的一个图表非常能够说明问题，请看下图。 [...] [...] 上周五，Google公布了第一季度财报，可以说是全线飘红，收入52亿美元，同比增长了42%，比2007年第4季度增长了 7%。特别需要提出的是，付费链接点击量同比增长了20%，远远超过comScore的增长1.8%的预测。为什么以comScore为代表的数据分析公司的预测会如此“离谱”呢？今天Techcrunch给出的一个图表非常能够说明问题，请看下图。 [...]

]]> By: Search The Tail http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2209110 Search The Tail Tue, 22 Apr 2008 02:31:50 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2209110 We haven't seen anyone predicting convincingly what the global search market share for Google is. Using the US market share alone to predict the global market share can mislead. There is also a more interesting life outside the US! We haven’t seen anyone predicting convincingly what the global search market share for Google is. Using the US market share alone to predict the global market share can mislead. There is also a more interesting life outside the US!

]]> By: Don Marti http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2208764 Don Marti Mon, 21 Apr 2008 23:17:51 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2208764 Google also decided to reduce the clickable area of the ads and to increase the bid threshold for some low-priced keywords -- giving up some low-value clicks and messing up everyone's clicks/dollar ratios. Google also decided to reduce the clickable area of the ads and to increase the bid threshold for some low-priced keywords — giving up some low-value clicks and messing up everyone’s clicks/dollar ratios.

]]> By: Scott http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2208633 Scott Mon, 21 Apr 2008 22:02:31 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2208633 First off, the graphic in the image above was taken from the ClixMarketing blog and no credit was given: http://www.clixmarketing.com/blog/2008/04/21/google-comscore-and-adgooroo-reconciling-the-differences/ Second, I agree 100% with the statement that “you cannot take one data point and use that to predict Google’s revenues”. However, it seemed pretty apparent that an earnings surprise was in order, especially given the research report from AdGooroo which showed that the trend in advertiser count reversed itself over the first quarter. http://www.adgooroo.com/google_gains_advertiser_share.php The reason this was apparent was because there was clearly a drop in advertisers as a result of the changes in AdWords policy last July. Many advertisers migrated to Yahoo and MSN as a result. The big gamble here was whether or not Google would recover, and the AdGooroo data showed they did. It’s not a far jump to imagine revenues would be significantly higher, especially in light of the growth in international and contextual advertising. First off, the graphic in the image above was taken from the ClixMarketing blog and no credit was given:

http://www.clixmarketing.com/b.....fferences/

Second, I agree 100% with the statement that “you cannot take one data point and use that to predict Google’s revenues”. However, it seemed pretty apparent that an earnings surprise was in order, especially given the research report from AdGooroo which showed that the trend in advertiser count reversed itself over the first quarter.

http://www.adgooroo.com/google....._share.php

The reason this was apparent was because there was clearly a drop in advertisers as a result of the changes in AdWords policy last July. Many advertisers migrated to Yahoo and MSN as a result. The big gamble here was whether or not Google would recover, and the AdGooroo data showed they did. It’s not a far jump to imagine revenues would be significantly higher, especially in light of the growth in international and contextual advertising.

]]> By: David http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2208596 David Mon, 21 Apr 2008 21:39:40 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2208596 Why do people pay attention to Wall Street analysts again? Because they are almost always wrong? Because they are incapable of or are unwilling to understand the methodology used to collect the data they spend 90 hours a week analyzing? Why do people pay attention to Wall Street analysts again? Because they are almost always wrong? Because they are incapable of or are unwilling to understand the methodology used to collect the data they spend 90 hours a week analyzing?

]]> By: TechCrunch Japanese アーカイブ » ペイドクリック試算に基づくcomScoreのGoogle収益予想が外れたのはなぜ？ http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2208580 TechCrunch Japanese アーカイブ » ペイドクリック試算に基づくcomScoreのGoogle収益予想が外れたのはなぜ？ Mon, 21 Apr 2008 21:34:29 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2208580 [...] ［原文へ］ [...] [...] ［原文へ］ [...]

]]> By: Anand Rajaraman http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2208453 Anand Rajaraman Mon, 21 Apr 2008 20:29:05 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2208453 The problem is not ComScore's methodology so much as the data they have, which is a very small and unrepresentative sample of Google's worldwide audience. The best data to predict Google earnings is with large-scale SEM optimizers like Efficient Frontier. This article shows how Efficient Frontier data has consistently outperformed comScore data in predicting Google earnings: http://anand.typepad.com/datawocky/2008/04/more-data-beats.html The problem is not ComScore’s methodology so much as the data they have, which is a very small and unrepresentative sample of Google’s worldwide audience. The best data to predict Google earnings is with large-scale SEM optimizers like Efficient Frontier. This article shows how Efficient Frontier data has consistently outperformed comScore data in predicting Google earnings:

http://anand.typepad.com/dataw.....beats.html

]]> By: Chris http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2208354 Chris Mon, 21 Apr 2008 19:44:11 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2208354 So, this brings up an important question: Is Techcrunch going to stop using Comscore and compete.com when covering websites? Because every time I see a compete/comscore graph on TC comparing two or more sites, I cringe. It's totally unfair to any company who is focusing on the world as a whole. It's true that until around 2004, a website had to win US traffic to succeed in general, but it's no longer the case (look at hi5/friendster/any number of other sites which are quite successful despite a lack of US traffic). So, this brings up an important question: Is Techcrunch going to stop using Comscore and compete.com when covering websites? Because every time I see a compete/comscore graph on TC comparing two or more sites, I cringe. It’s totally unfair to any company who is focusing on the world as a whole. It’s true that until around 2004, a website had to win US traffic to succeed in general, but it’s no longer the case (look at hi5/friendster/any number of other sites which are quite successful despite a lack of US traffic).

]]> By: mooniv http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2208258 mooniv Mon, 21 Apr 2008 19:21:56 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2208258 I had better like google . I did my own search to find whatever I need. You can see it in my own site . I had better like google . I did my own search to find whatever I need. You can see it in my own site .

]]> By: 90s dotcommer.com http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2207984 90s dotcommer.com Mon, 21 Apr 2008 17:37:33 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2207984 Yet another company showing that the days as the US as the #1 in online are over. Yet another company showing that the days as the US as the #1 in online are over.

]]> By: ValleyGuy http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2207967 ValleyGuy Mon, 21 Apr 2008 17:31:11 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2207967 comscore also misses the traffic from dell/gateway and others where google has a partnership for start page comscore also misses the traffic from dell/gateway and others where google has a partnership for start page

]]> By: nana http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2207923 nana Mon, 21 Apr 2008 17:15:23 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2207923 not related to this article. but yahoo mail beta has a photo slideshow feature now. just wanted to let you know if you have not noticed. not related to this article.
but yahoo mail beta has a photo slideshow feature now. just wanted to let you know if you have not noticed.

]]> By: ACD http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2207885 ACD Mon, 21 Apr 2008 16:57:15 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2207885 The article correctly points out that Comscore clicks don't predict Google revenue, but Google also reports the number of paid clicks on Google properties, and Comscore doesn't do well there either. The article correctly points out that Comscore clicks don’t predict Google revenue, but Google also reports the number of paid clicks on Google properties, and Comscore doesn’t do well there either.

]]> By: Brig http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2207884 Brig Mon, 21 Apr 2008 16:57:09 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2207884 interesting --- I wonder when google will begin doing more ad tactics around their video stuff on youtube. interesting — I wonder when google will begin doing more ad tactics around their video stuff on youtube.

]]> By: Chris http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2207870 Chris Mon, 21 Apr 2008 16:49:45 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2207870 Rubicon project and others have the best strategy. Piggy back Google, adbright and other javascript code under the guise of optimization then get people to distribute it in a wrapper. Then you can go ahead and collect massive amounts of accurate data. A website that does multiple vendor advertisement optimization could effectively steal millions in web trend data from the different vendors. The problem is getting people to sign on and trust that. That would be a good project to invest in. Rubicon project and others have the best strategy. Piggy back Google, adbright and other javascript code under the guise of optimization then get people to distribute it in a wrapper. Then you can go ahead and collect massive amounts of accurate data. A website that does multiple vendor advertisement optimization could effectively steal millions in web trend data from the different vendors.

The problem is getting people to sign on and trust that.

That would be a good project to invest in.

]]> By: Chris http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2207850 Chris Mon, 21 Apr 2008 16:42:43 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2207850 There is no current way to predict web trends on a global scale. Only Google has that information, and they're not going to share it citing privacy. The best way to be predictive in respect to Google is to watch for sudden changes in their business. They actually have the data from analytics, and other javascript people have put on their websites from the world over. They will know about a drop off months before any of us will with comscore data and will take corrective action. The best way to predict Google is to watch what they do. 3rd party data will never be accurate or demonstrative. There is no current way to predict web trends on a global scale.
Only Google has that information, and they’re not going to share it citing privacy.

The best way to be predictive in respect to Google is to watch for sudden changes in their business. They actually have the data from analytics, and other javascript people have put on their websites from the world over.

They will know about a drop off months before any of us will with comscore data and will take corrective action.

The best way to predict Google is to watch what they do. 3rd party data will never be accurate or demonstrative.

]]> By: Siddharth http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2207847 Siddharth Mon, 21 Apr 2008 16:41:00 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2207847 You can not predict progress I think. Google is the web search leader and its revenue is diversified. I don’t think that anyone can correctly estimate what Google chart will show. When Yahoo ads and search division will be handovered to Google the we will see more big rise in revenue and shares. :-) You can not predict progress I think. Google is the web search leader and its revenue is diversified. I don’t think that anyone can correctly estimate what Google chart will show. When Yahoo ads and search division will be handovered to Google the we will see more big rise in revenue and shares.
:-)

]]> By: Sebastian http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2207837 Sebastian Mon, 21 Apr 2008 16:37:49 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2207837 the lesson here is, that analysts are redundant. the lesson here is, that analysts are redundant.

]]> By: Craig Bokesch http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2207768 Craig Bokesch Mon, 21 Apr 2008 16:11:15 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/21/why-comscores-google-paid-click-estimates-are-not-predictive-of-googles-revenues/#comment-2207768 I would argue that google did well in Q1 because when the comscore report came out, Google began shading the background of their high CPC adwords which will draw extra attention to them and increase their CTRs. All the top 3 positions on any keyword that cost greater than a $1 received the yellow background treatment. Simple as that. I would argue that google did well in Q1 because when the comscore report came out, Google began shading the background of their high CPC adwords which will draw extra attention to them and increase their CTRs. All the top 3 positions on any keyword that cost greater than a $1 received the yellow background treatment. Simple as that.

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