Comments on: When Everyone Talks About Weakness At Google, Wall Street Buys the Stock

By: D.I.A Free News Online 2008 » Techcrunch: Liveblogging Google Q1 Earnings Report—Fears Were Overblown

Fri, 18 Apr 2008 08:54:49 +0000

[...] reported earnings for the first quarter. The fears of a meltdown were overblown. Revenue was $5.2 billion, up 42 percent year-over-year and up 7 percent from the fourth quarter in [...]

By: Liveblogging Google Q1 Earnings Report—Fears Were Overblown

Liveblogging Google Q1 Earnings Report—Fears Were Overblown — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 20:37:37 +0000

[...] reported earnings for the first quarter. The fears of a meltdown were overblown. Revenue was $5.2 billion, up 42 percent year-over-year and up 7 percent from the fourth quarter in [...]

By: Steven

Steven — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 19:24:47 +0000

AdGooroo just released their quarterly research report on Google and Yahoo. It clearly shows that Google’s quality algorithm cost them quite a few advertisers since July, but that they bounced back in Q1 (at Yahoo’s expense). This seems to support the idea that earnings will be up.

http://www.adgooroo.com/google....._share.php

These guys normally know what they are talking about, so we will see…

By: Ted

Ted — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 09:14:25 +0000

I am still long but think Google is at a turning point. They have definitely upset a lot of webmasters I know when they changed their clickable area. I am sure this has and is going to have an impact on Goog’s bottom line. Moreover, Dheeraj mentioned there is going to eventually be a turning point of Noobs blindly pouring money into Adwords. Regardless, it will be interesting to see how it pans out tomorrow. Here is a show that explains the clickable area change: http://www.flixya.com/watch/Te.....sh_animoto

Not sure many people realize how large a change this really is. Sounds small but the impact is HUGE!

By: Wade

Wade — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 03:36:42 +0000

I’d steer clear of Google stock. Seems like they’re losin’ it.

By: Subhasish Das

Subhasish Das — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 03:21:38 +0000

Google just launched openSocial based applications in Orkut today. There was no formal announcement it seems, you wake up this morning only to find them in your orkut home page. There’s iPoke, iLike and Flixter apps similar to facebook and some India specific stuff from Minglebox. There are also a couple of them from Google employees.

By: Jose

Jose — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 00:41:37 +0000

@15

http://www.startup-review.com/

One article from there is equal to 300 TechCrunch articles.

But it is seldom updated. A shame.

By: TechCrunch Japanese アーカイブ » 誰もがGoogleの弱みを語る中、ウォール街は「買い」

TechCrunch Japanese アーカイブ » 誰もがGoogleの弱みを語る中、ウォール街は「買い」 — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 22:03:46 +0000

[...] ［原文へ］ [...]

By: Masseratti

Masseratti — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 21:44:16 +0000

@14 just name one and I’ll be gone forever

By: Mike B

Mike B — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 21:19:30 +0000

Hey Masseratti: There have to be at least 50 TechCrunch competitors out there already.

By: MrCashyCash

MrCashyCash — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 21:14:07 +0000

@12

Launch one and I’ll check it out.

The truth is, half of this stuff is pure fluff.

Journalists are just writers; they aren’t experts in anything.

By: Masseratti

Masseratti — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 20:50:53 +0000

How weird you never talk about M$ stock which have been for over five years flatlined in $25

Hey entrepreneurs!
It is time for a TC competitor, I’ll drop this shitty blog for a really unbiased review of all startups around the world.

Lots of money to be made, ask Arrington, he knows a lot about payperpost.

By: reader

reader — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 20:24:30 +0000

Gosh! Why don’t you just rename your site to techcrunch.google.com for crying out loud! Get that out of the way!

By: Ema

Ema — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 18:25:58 +0000

besides, many on wallstreet know a lot more (as in the exact numbers) than the rest of us.

By: Ema

Ema — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 18:24:33 +0000

This happens EVERY single time during earnings. Either expectations leading up to earnings are way too high, thus anything that meets expectations or doesn’t beat by enough sends the stock down.

In this case, expectations have been only going lower, and Google would have to put out some really crappy numbers for the stock to stumble any lower.

it happens for every company that’s heavily followed… Intel, Apple, so on so forth..

By: Dracula....the VC

Dracula....the VC — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 18:16:29 +0000

sell on the hype….

By: Stilman

Stilman — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 18:07:24 +0000

I think some of the move is based on the discounted cash flows from the potential that Yahoo, the internet’s largest property group, might move to Google ads.

That out weights all the bad news lately.

By: Joshua

Joshua — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 18:07:04 +0000

I’m looking for a Google beat on earnings

1. paid clicks comscore alone is NOT an indicator of revenue/profits
2. Consensus among many sources is that internet advertising is UP, and that Google continues to take market share

3. Weak dollar, and strong international sales
4. Most importantly - GOOGLE is a business built on SCALE. The business scales very well, ( i.e. MSFT and YHOO in the same business but with less scale, hence they are not doing as well )

all studies show that the search business has grown ( 15 billion searches on all google properties in march 2008 ).

By: Dheeraj Sultanian

Dheeraj Sultanian — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 17:41:13 +0000

Here’s my take on Google: Revenue and earnings will both be below consensus because of a number of factors:
1. Reduced experimentation and new advertisers. Google makes a lot of money from n00bs who waste a year’s budget in a month on stupid word buys - as more people have tried Google, there are less n00bs to pad income AND increase click costs - I think we’ll finally see the turning point this quarter.
2. Algorithmic changes - the changes to Adsense have had the largest impact (as seen in click through rates) but the corresponding increase in cost per click may never materialize - because true clicks rarely result in a sale anyway.
3. Recessionary tendancy toward brand building rather than pushing the sale. Google is horrible at “brand building” aka display ads - people are supposed to buy stuff after clicking on an ad. During a recession, this dries up significantly, so you have people who are searching for stuff “they wish they could buy” and click on ads accordingly, without ever buying stuff. Display ads work much better because the CPM is lower and the brands are maintained/built and get stronger for the next upturn in the economy. In this environment, yahoo/ms would be a better pick for advertisers
4. Costs related to double-click acq. Not significant, but will still reduce their investment income for the quarter substationally due to decreases in cash base.
5. Increased labor costs and overhead to support non-revenue generating projects that have grown exponentially since last year.

We shall see…

By: bernie lomax

bernie lomax — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 17:35:41 +0000

Check your post for grammar: “declined in the quarter from 70.4 percent from 74.5 percent.” Also, results are Thursday not today. Flat out embarrassing.

By: Chris

Chris — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 17:30:18 +0000

I’m really curious as to what the cause of this decline is (if there is a decline). I would be shocked if a 30%+ decrease in growth over last year is the result of simply changing the clickable area, but you never know I guess…

By: J

Wed, 16 Apr 2008 17:29:01 +0000

Market is up 2% overall right now. I think that Google is just moving with the indexes until earnings.

By: Dheeraj Sultanian

Dheeraj Sultanian — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 17:25:50 +0000

Google reports on THURSDAY not tonight…