February 29, 2008

Google CTR Down Due To Click Area Changes

Duncan Riley

40 comments »

google3.jpgAfter Google’s stock took a hit based on reports that Google ads are not being clicked on as much as they use to be, comScore is reporting today that the market may have got it wrong

the evidence suggests that the softness in Google’s paid click metrics is primarily a result of Google’s own quality initiatives that result in a reduction in the number of paid listings and, therefore, the opportunity for paid clicks to occur.

In part this might be right, but what’s being ignored by most is a little decision in November that changed the way Google ads worked:

Google has made a small change to AdSense that may make a big difference in cutting out errant clicks and even your AdSense revenue. They’ve redefined the clickable region for Google AdSense from the entire boxed region, to just the text link.

I’ve been hearing first hand reports since then from publishers who have experienced a big downturn in CTR and Adsense revenue since that change was implemented. Well regarded online marketer Jeremy Schoemaker even recently told me in a podcast that Adsense was dead as a monetization strategy. It’s happening to big sites and small sites. Markus Friend from Plenty of Fish, one of the more famed and bigger free-making money from Adsense sites (January):

The CTR on text ads declined about 60% in the last 2 months with googles changes, Image ads on the other hand stayed the same. If you take a screen shot of a text ad and then run it as an image ad it will get 2 times the click thru rate.

You read that right, image ads with double the CTR of Google ads when showing the exact same thing.

SEO BlackHat gets it right February 27:

4 months later, that little back and forth in the Google Rec Room shaved about $85 Billion (with a B) in market capitalization.

But it wasn’t as stupid an idea as it might seem. You see, Adsense works in a Quasi-market place environment. The market will bid up the cost per click once the adjustment for accidental clicks is readjusted. Right now, marketers should be getting a better value per click as a higher percentage of the clicks are “real” or intentional. That will lead to higher bids per click and ultimately should be close to a break even for GOOGs bottom line.

The short story: the changes to the clickable area in Google ads has resulted in a decline in accidental clicks, resulting in the overall click rate to decline. If Google is seeing a decline in CTR it’s at least in part due to its November decision.

  • Sphere It

Trackbacks/Pings (Trackback URL)

  1. Search Engine Marketing Insight From Clay Fisher
  2. Marlex Systems
  3. Collaboradate Online Dating Blog
  4. Adsense, cuantificando pérdidas: el dólar y el CTR
  5. When Everyone Talks About Weakness At Google, Wall Street Buys the Stock
  6. Maybe The Fight Against Click Fraud Isn’t Hopeless After All
  7. TechCrunch Japanese アーカイブ » クリック詐欺率下がる、撲滅努力は結局無駄ではなかった
  8. Maybe The Fight Against Click Fraud Isn’t Hopeless After All » Mustafa Kemal Temel
  9. socialinnovation3.com

Comments

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  1. bob

    Schoemaker is a hack. heres a good wickedfire thread him and a few other people:
    http://www.wickedfire.com/shoo.....amels.html

  2. SearcH◆ EngineS WEB

    It was actually this ranting post on their blog that finally convinced them to change their policy on having the whole area clickable

    http://www.mattcutts.com/blog/.....ent-120190

    Then after Google changed - Yahoo made some changes in their model

    They KNEW it was wrong and leading to click fraud; they were just waiting to be screamed at - and for a leader to take the initiative before other followed :-(

  3. Josh

    Yes, shoemaker is a total hack, and I think the effects of this change by Google have been way overblown. Personally I haven’t seen any reduction in click through rates on text ads via adsense since they made the changes. Also Duncan, seriously, why is it that after I finish checking out techmeme I come to techcrunch and see that your latest story is a copy of one of the top items there?

  4. SEO Mash

    Haven’t seen any reduction in CTR either. Can only wonder if some of these publishers were positioning their ads in a manner to encourage accidental clicks … similar to when Adsense use to allow images placed immediately next to ads.

  5. Zaid

    Predicting adsense is like guessing a coin toss. That might be a bigger reason relying on adsense for monetization is a dead strategy.

    We have days with low click-thru numbers, higher revenue; and days with high click thrus and low revenue. Fluctuation every once in a while is ok but the frequency of the fluctuation nullifies adsense as a dependable and reliable source of revenue, unless of course you are myspace.

    And yes, we are making higher revenue than we were making before this change was implemented. Number of clicks are the same. Of course all this might change tomorrow. And reverse the day later. Welcome to adsense:)

  6. Duncan Rocks!

    Duncan,
    just wanted to say that this was an excellent post. I’d love to see more posts on advertising and monetization on this blog

    thanks!

  7. Jeremy

    Man, after running adsense on the same site, in similar position, and getting nearly the same exact revenue over all on a per visit basis for a year…you have got to wonder why people are reporting a 60% drop in their CTR OR revenue.

    Not right, I tell you. Our CTR is down, sure, about .3% since they made the change. However, revenue is nearly identical on a per visitor basis.

  8. Rob Sandie

    Very insightful. It’s scary how dependent Google is on the adsense ad units.

  9. Pedantic Man

    In the first paragraph it should be ‘used to’ not ‘use to’. Sorry, pet hate. Otherwise a great post.

  10. Ryan Holiday

    DO YOU KNOW WHAT A LOGICAL FALLACY IS?

  11. Overuse Bubble

    Duncan, this is funny stuff. That change in click through came right around the time your article was published called “Imperium: Google’s March Towards Becoming America’s Biggest Company”. In it, you fawn all over GOOG and speculate that it could become the biggest company in America in short order.

    I used this article and others like it as my signal to get short the stock as you can see from my comment on the original story.

    Anyhow, thanks for your contrary-indicatorness. It has proven very profitable.

  12. un.valley

    adsense has the highest walls of any garden. i do not understand why no one calls them on it.

    if goog is about to miss their target next quarter - what stops them from adjusting their payout % to ensure they hit their numbers?

    do i make 50¢ on a $1 click…or 10¢ ?

    its a secret.

    no transparency.

  13. Small Business Web Guy

    Well put, Duncan.

    Finally, a rational reaction to the decrease in Google’s paid ads CTR. I couldn’t stand the sensationalized media stories earlier this week about “the downturn of Google” - it prompted me to respond with this podcast:

    An Optimistic View on the Decrease in Google’s Paid Ad Clicks

    People are not understanding that the measures Google is taking will drive the cost and value of paid clicks up!

  14. LPH

    No one really cares about Google. Instead, people care about the paycheck earned from visitors clicking. If another company was able to pay more then people would abandon Google’s adsense nonsense.

  15. Sandra G

    I agree with #4, that Shoemoney and others rely on accidental clicks to a degree. However, enough about publishers and the likes of Markus (I’ll cry for him the next time I see him on the Today Show)…what are advertisers saying about the change, are they happy with what Google did?

  16. Matthew

    I was ranting about this in the last article:
    http://www.techcrunch.com/2008.....nt-2007628

  17. Bill Gates

    Don’t listen to Duncan. Google’s empire *is* crumbling. Fortunately, Vista Premium Edition comes preloaded with features helping you deal with this more efficiently.

  18. whoopie

    none of the rationalizations matter. the GOOG bubble is over. you either sold at 740 or not. the cycle of “wow ‘em” earnings calls are over, the economy is in recession, competitors are undercutting, click fraud is chewing at their ankles…there’s nothing to push this stock to new highs.

    on the contrary i would suggest google has entered into a yahoo-2002 phase where there are too many products, no focus, no idea who is doing what, too many employees, costs too high, recessionary environment…bubble stocks just land on a nail in these environments.

    google will see its first layoff in 2009, at 16k they are way heavy on staffing

  19. Sam Johnson

    GOOG is no doubt going through a period of adjustment - maybe mobile will help them in a few years…

  20. Bill Thomas

    Wonder why all the angst about Google - they’re a company just like any other and subject to the same forces.

  21. VentureDeal

    I have a love/hate relationship with Google - they make my business, but have too much power over me…

  22. Venture Deal

    Wonder what the deal is with comment awaiting moderation…

  23. Click

    The first Adsense copycat that comes up with a system that is completely transparent to publishers will deflate the Google Adsense bubble in an instant.

  24. Martin

    I’m a little bit puzzled as to why anyone assumes that click prizes will go up when advertisers realize that their conversion rate has increased over the last four months. This does not make a lot of sense in my opinion.

    I for one would be happy about it and probably pump part of the additional revenue into advertising again. Not to bid higher on clicks though but to increase the budget as a whole.

  25. micfo.com

    Google should think over on it to reverse back otherwise they may loss the paid listings and as well as publisher.

  26. David

    Great post Duncan :)

    I am a small German publisher with around 9 mio. monthly pageviews and have seen a decrease of CTR since November of around 35%. I would really like to share more numbers but that is against AdSense’s TOC, which is a real pain. More important than the CTR is the RPC (revenue per click), because it doesn’t only tell you how high the probability of a click through is, but it combines this metric with how much the advertiser paid you… or better how much AdSense paid you after taking their intransparent share ;) You have to calculate that metric yourself. No help from AdSense on that side. What makes this even more stressful in Germany is that AdSense Germany charges advertisers in € while paying publishers in $. Big German news outlets commentented on this malpractise in the past. This means that the eCPM that they display always needs to be adapted to the rather volatile Peso-US-Dollar and translated into a RPC.

    I really hate AdSense’s intransparency, especially since they are more or less monopolistic on the German market. I recently came across a potential Munich based competitor to AdSense called proximic, but they are still in private beta so of not much use for publishers, yet. proximic got revued by Scobble and TechCrunch couple weeks ago and I hope they perform well and bring some fun back into the contextual text link advertising market.

    In general the core components for a competitor are: a) enough inventory to match against pages, b) good contextual matching algorithms, c) maybe advanced targeting algorithms, d) higher transparency than AdSense. Whenever proximic gets the tech part (b + c) right, plus delivers better RPCs/eCPMs to publishers than AdSense does, plus collects enough inventory (a), which they supposingly have from Yahoo, Shopping.com etc., they pose a real threat to AdSense. Happy times ahead for publishers… hopefully ;)

  27. Coupons

    I’m an advertised and a publisher, and I welcome this change. Accidental clicks are only good on the short term. If the advertiser doesn’t like the ROI, it will bid less or remove the campaign all together. In the long term this is the right choice.

    DeluxeCoupons.com

  28. Vic

    So what are the alternatives to Adsense - does anyone make any money from Bidvertiser or Kontera ?

  29. Jagannath

    @Vic there are tons of other programs like adsense just google “Adsense Alternatives” and you would get a lot of blog posts

    but Adsense is the emperor cos of the ads targeting and the ad inventory

    I wish MS buys Yahoo and the come with a real adsense competitor :D

  30. mana

    I have a click through rate of 2 percent. Have a look at my adsense strategy at http://www.paaspk.com

  31. HighTechWebsites

    Google’s change in the CTR policy has affected many, many large websites and publishers. We operate several large and high traffic websites - receiving over 2 million pages views a month, and our CTR went down from approx 5.5 % to 3.5% in Nov 2007, on our highest performing Adsense ad units. This resulted in a drop of almost 30 to 40% in Adsense revenues - a substantial hit. All our ad units complied fully with Adsense TOS and none of the tricks were used like placing graphic images next to the units to trick people into clicking on them. I suspect that the ones here who are reporting minor drops in their CTR had very poorly placed / optimized Adsense units to begin with. We have ad units that even now generate only 0.3% CTR because of their positioning on the page no matter how hard we try to opimize them. While Google assured us and other publishers that ultimately the per click values and ad revenues will increase this has not happened so far - after almost 5 months now. In spite of the drop, I can say that Adsense in not dead as many here proclaim. I will tell you why - we also run Banner Ads from the largest ad networks as well on our websites, including Tribal fusion and Casale media. We also run Affiliate Ads from Commission Junction and Linkshare, plus we have tried almost every alternative ad network out there - Adbrite, Yahoo, Chitika, AuctionAds, Kontera, Searchfeed, Revenuepilot - you name it. Not ONE of these networks comes close to matching Google in getting the best monetization for your website, even after the above change in their CTR policy. The only way to make more money from your Advertising than Google for publishers , is to get the Premium Banner or CPM ad rates which can range from $ 10 to $60 per CPM from outfits like Federated Media, like TechCrunch itself does. But then not every publisher can become a Techcrunch to demand this sort of premium for their ad space. We have been lucky after the google adsense revenue drop to come across an opportunity to partner with a very High CPM ad network in the US, which is helping brige the gap in our revenues.