February 4, 2008

Microsoft’s Acquisition Of Yahoo: Not As Bad As Some Think

Duncan Riley

115 comments »

The Microsoft is evil meme is alive and well this week as many digest Microsoft’s $44.6 billion takeover offer for Yahoo. There’s Flickr users protesting, talk of Yahoo teaming up with Google to block Microsoft’s bid, and general Microsoft is bad sentiment everywhere, even from Google itself. While Microsoft acquiring Yahoo may not provide the ultimate in happy endings to many, it’s really not as bad as some would have you believe.

Google is Afraid.

Google’s response to the acquisition over the weekend was amazing in its veracity. Google and Microsoft have never been friends, but for Google to come out and attack the acquisition as it did can only mean one thing: Google is afraid, and that’s a very good thing. Internally Google believes that a combined Microsoft/ Yahoo will provide real competition to its dominant market position in search and text advertising, the very same position it has depended on to build its until recently huge share price and market cap. Google can preach about open access and open markets all it wants, but Google’s idea of open is only where users access it from one of its many web properties.

More Competition

One argument against the acquisition is that it lessens competition. While in terms of major players it does, a combined Microsoft/ Yahoo will actually increase competition in spaces where Google is dominant, and in some countries all but a monopolist provider. Scale is the key here: Google has it, and Yahoo and Microsoft need more of it. The combined Microsoft/ Yahoo would still have less than half of Google’s market share in text ads for example, but the combined companies would be able to provide a much more appealing product in terms of reach when competing against Google, ie: the increased reach would become more appealing to ad buyers looking to maximize their exposure.

A Stronger Tail

One argument against the deal is that there will be less opportunities for startups to be bought out with Yahoo out of the picture. That is true, but only in the short term. There always has to be a Number 3 player and positions below that, and with Microsoft/ Yahoo coming in at second, the space is now there for smaller players to step into this place. Ask comes to mind, but there’s no reason why we couldn’t see newer players step up. Essentially there will be now one less big player to compete with. The strengthening of smaller players who want to break into the top tier may well see increased flows and acquisitions. In lessening numerical competition at the top, it creates further opportunities below. This naturally rests on the presumption that there won’t be a duopoly in areas such as search, but this is unlikely: there has always been smaller players, always has been, always will be, and the dream of being the next Google will continue to live on.

Yahoo Lives On

Microsoft will actually be a great boost for the Yahoo brand and its many services. The alternatives are nearly bleak in comparison: a hedge fund or similar investment would gut Yahoo to a core rump of (hopefully profitable) services, and sell off areas such as Yahoo News. Google as a partner (either in ads or the unlikely scenario as an investor) would leave Yahoo doomed to be forever a second class player to Google. One of Yahoo’s biggest strengths is still its brand, and Microsoft will work tirelessly towards building that Yahoo brand back to its glory days as the front page of the internet. That goes for the sub-brands as well: Flickr will likely replace Microsoft’s photo sharing suite for example.

Better Service

Someone wrote in the last couple of days the days of building the best product and expecting people to use it has passed, and that’s the problem with Microsoft’s online endeavors today in the age of Google dominance. Microsoft has some great internet products; from Popfly and Silverlight, through to a solid ad platform (that is powering Digg and Facebook) and decent search. A combined Microsoft/ Yahoo would offer the best from both companies in what in theory would be a better all over package. Some may argue that getting to this stage might be difficult, but even Wired notes that merging the two corporate cultures wouldn’t be that hard. Ultimately to compete with Google you must have a strong across the board multi-faceted package, and Microsoft/ Yahoo would have just that.

Conclusion

None of this is meant as Google bashing. Google has done much good and as Google loves to argue, people choose to use Google, nobody is forced to use their services. However markets where one company dominates usually end up seeing stagnation and/ or inefficient pricing and service in the long term. We need a combined Microsoft/ Yahoo if only to keep Google on its toes, to keep Google innovating and providing the best service that it can, to keep Google honest.

  • Sphere It

Trackbacks/Pings (Trackback URL)

  1. It turns out some people don’t like Microsoft? - Liam Getreu
  2. » It is not about search » BinaryDay - A little better day
  3. Random Precision » Blog Archive » Yahoo! (Powered by Microsoft)
  4. Tangent: Microsoft vs Yahoo vs Google · Kolgoth.com

Comments

RSS feed for comments on this post.

  1. gilltots

    I for one welcome our new Microhoo overlords.

  2. Anonymous

    Might not happen over night but have you considered the consequences if google looses ?

  3. i am under age

    i hope MS gets Y sooner. but keep the brand.

  4. Your Daddy

    The “evil empire” are now those bastards at Google, not MSFT. Bill Gates helps poor people, Google just helps their fiancees and themselves.

  5. Hendra

    It’s hard to trust Mugro$oft after all this years. Soon you’ll get to upload 2 photos for free to Flickr and shows more banner ads on your page than your photo collection. Need to add more pics, please upgrade to Microsoft™ Flickr™ 2011 Home™ Premium™ Edition™

  6. YDRIVE

    It’s actually very good.. why people think it’s bad?!! :-D

  7. Dheeraj Sultanian

    Its all about mobile and China - search is a great business, but long term it also has its limits to growth and when a company like Google cannot diversify out into other things, its multiple will crash to around 10-15 like any directory company. This deal would be excellent for MS and Yahoo.

    http://www.infosupply.com

  8. Hendra

    @Your Daddy
    BillG didn’t help the poor during the first few decades of Mugro$oft, he too helped himself first and fucked his secretary (ies?) before helping the poor, so no plus point there, and I think you’re missing the point anyway.

  9. Exchange3D

    2 major players taking 90% of the market - not a hack of a competition really. 3 players with others creeping in - better.

  10. John

    I have to disagree. I think the cultures will clash, not just over technology (BSD and Linux vs Windows) but also over priorities and vision. Yahoo can be re-invented and can deliver more value under better leadership. See http://www.johnriccardi.com/bl.....-on-yahoo/ for more…

  11. michael s

    Amen — to some clear thinking. Folks here in the Silicon Valley are getting rather emotional about this — not good. Thanks for injecting some clear thinking back into the conversation.

  12. Sunny Kalara

    My reaction exactly.

    I fully support the MS+Yahoo merger because Google is my frenemy (friend+enemy). And as the old adage goes, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

    Google is so much ahead of the competitors that it is skewing the market and tilting the playing field for innovations. If you ever cross Google, Google is the prosecutor, the judge, the jury and the executioner, and I don’t like any entity wielding so much power over me.

    I want to see a real alternative to Google for online ads, web search and online office applications.

    Yahoo couldn’t compete with Google and I was concerned that they have essentially conceded to Google in the field of web search. Microsoft couldn’t compete with Google, because well, they are Microsoft and they have their own ways of doing things. But combined Microsoft and Yahoo might provide real competition to Google in some important fields.

    Microsoft+yahoo might not be able to catch up with Google in search technology, but there is a real chance that Yahoo and Microsoft combined will provide a viable alternative to ad-sense and online advertisement market. Online office application could go either way, but I do expect Microsoft+yahoo to put up a robust defense before they concede that domain.

    In some of the websites I maintain, 80% of the traffic comes from Google. All my monetization of website comes from Google. I think that is just wrong - it means that I am not in control of my website, Google is. Anything that can be done to reduce my reliance on Google, is a good thing.

  13. Dyde

    The only people angry with this are MS shareholders. Way to waste so much cash, they would probably get more ROI by investing that cash into Treasuries or Exxon Mobile.

  14. PinkConnection.com

    Competition is good…. :P

  15. Flake Steve

    Competition is good…

    But having microsoft control 80%+ of the Webmail and Instant Messaging industry is NOT competition…. Yahoo would be much better off outsourcing their search and advertising to either Microsoft or Google, but keeping its core (and dignity) intact. Alternatively, split up Yahoo into Search, Webmail, IM, Photos and other parts and sell them to Microsoft, Ask and Google as pieces… I think they would get much more bang for the buck for the investors…

  16. dedos

    we just need someone else to deliver good search results, I will use anyone else, but for now the best is google and that is the only reason I use them, if MS+Yahoo can created something new and good, i am in.

  17. Amit Chowdhry

    #2 had a pretty good point. Google offers great services to those on the Internet, but what the company’s philanthropic initiatives aren’t as talked about as the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

    Google.org shows all of Google’s philanthropic initiatives, but the media does not care to cover that as much as Google investing in Sergey’s wife’s business.

    Duncan, I liked your closing paragraph about how the acquisition would just keep Google on their toes and keep innovating. I want to see what the company has to offer beyond search and advertising.

  18. Aaron Brethorst

    Yo Duncan - “veracity” means accuracy or truthfulness, not ferociousness.

  19. Larry

    I’m just curious - could Duncan and Michael please disclose how much stock (if any) they have in Microsoft and/or Yahoo. I’m not suggesting that it is impacting their reporting but a headline like “…Not As Bad As Some Think” seems to be Duncan’s way of giving his approval to the deal.

    I’m under no illusions that blogging isn’t opinion based BTW but this would be a different issue.

  20. Marek

    Good for the most part, but I can hardly see how Micrö$öft & Yippee merging creates any “room to the top”. I think there’s always room if you can make it for yourself, but I fail to see how this will make things easier for small players/startups in web advertising. Those who rely on advertising as their source of income might benefit though, if MSN/Yahoo starts to offer better percentages for text ads to gain market share. We’ll see..

  21. dc crowley

    Good article Duncan. I hope Microsoft will cherish the Yahoo brands like Flickr. Then I see this working. Intergration of overlapping services can happen later. I hope they keep those services as free and easy to use as they are now. Can we now start talking about MS Yahoo! and not Microhoo or what ever. They is just plain ugly names :p

  22. Rebecca

    I think it’s very good. So I believes Google will meet the real competition

  23. spell chequer

    para 2, sentence 1: you mean voracity, not veracity.

  24. spell chequer

    or perhaps even ‘ferocity’, come to think of it

  25. Jonno

    Merging the culture of two companies that size is always hard and only rarely done well. Even with companies a fraction of the size it is hard. If the management team pull off the merger of the culture, they will be writing books about how they did it for the next few decades. They will be rock stars in the mgmt scene … only if they pull it off.

  26. Ben

    Duncan clearly does mean veracity - but what if Google’s statement is disingenuous? A merger between Microsoft and Yahoo will only hurt them if the combination of the two companies can increase its share of search. It’ll just make them even bigger and unwieldier.

    The Google statement boils down to: “Please don’t throw me in the briar patch.”

  27. Jonas

    Agreed with the point that this may create a more viable space in the market for new players. I look for the next wave of innovative companies to break into the market. http://www.managedq.com is one such player that I think will create a huge splash this year in the search market. Google/Yahoo have been essentially the same for a decade, so I think the time is ripe for a new company to make a run at it.

  28. John

    I just wish TechCrunch would invest some of it’s Adsense monies, together with it’s MS share earnings on the server that drive this joint. Maybe a merger / takeover with an outfit that can serve a page at industry standard speeds is a possibility

  29. ffrk

    And now imagine what will happen if Google beat Microhoo to death… :)

  30. Thomas

    It may look like improved competition at first, but Microsoft has too many other cards, that they have used before. Cards like bundling or tying things to their windows or office applications, making exclusive deals with software and hardware providers etc. How about we saw a microsoft version of google-docs, but tied to Microsoft office, and MSN, and IE version 8 containing special extensions for the new Microsoft Internet monopoly…

    Microsoft has all possibilities to tie their Os or office costumers to their internet services.

    I think that If (and this is absolutely not certain) they success in winning also the internet as they have done with the OS and with office, competition in the entire IT landscape will be something you can read about in your history books, .. well yes if microsoft does not write these as well that is..

    This is indeed a very scary scenario..

    Google has in my record behaved nicely all the way contrary to Microsoft.

  31. pooja

    google is concerned by the implications and the size of a future Microsoft + Yahoo kind of competitor….so i m just waiting to see what google comes out with to fight mircohoo..:)

  32. Davey

    With such a voracity for veracity, TechCrunchers rarely reach their capacity!

  33. johns

    Good story here on the M$ “bear hug” letter to Yahoo!…
    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02.....orkin.html

  34. Aaronontheweb

    Microsoft and Yahoo won’t have cultural clashes: Yahoo’s employees will be fucking GONE if they don’t assimilate into MS culture. MS is the big boy and Yahoo is the weakling; it’s not a merger, it’s an acquisition.

  35. Leaving The Day Job

    The one thing I can’t see this making any difference to is the core search product. Yahoo and Microsoft are so far behind Google that even together they’re no competition.

    This stands to benefit MS enormously though as Yahoo’s web products are more mature and better quality. Tie that with Microsoft’s ability to force them as the default option on millions of Windows PCs and you have a threat (and possibly another antitrust hearing)

  36. ShackledToMSTech

    You’ll all think this is great, until MS starts injecting MS technology and proprietary standards into Yahoo properties. The first casualty is likely to be Flash being replaced with Silverlight. Microsoft wants to force you to install Silverlight, and what better way to do it. One needs only to look at past MS acquisitions like Hotmail to see how they’ll cram MS technology down the throats of the backend engineers. Will Microsoft support innovative stuff like YUI, or will they expect developers to use MS Expression/Visual Studio?

    Google is very right to be concerned about this merger. Forget 80% IM/Email marketshare. We’re talking about the company with a monopoly in desktop operating systems owning the largest portal on the internet. There is a very real danger of MS leveraging their position in evil ways far worse than Google. User scan always switch search engines, people can easily switch ad networks. But it’s hard to switch desktops and dependent technologies.

  37. Alexis Brion

    Better service? This is ridiculous. I give you an example, MSN Games can be played with Internet Explorer ONLY. Yeah, better service.

    I wrote an article about this on my blog.

    http://www.designvsart.com/blo.....-stronger/

  38. Aaronontheweb

    @35 Actually that’s not true. Microsoft and Yahoo have caught up with Google in terms of the quality of their search results. For more information:

    http://www.cs.uic.edu/~liub/se.....-2007.html

  39. Thomas

    I do not like it.. yes I can see it may improve competition at first, but in the long run it is a very serious thread. Letting the worlds largest de-facto monopoly company enter the market to ensure competion - that is smart…

    Have you considred the consequences it will have if they succeed in defeating google?

    Have you considered the toolbox of dirty tricks they can impose in form of technology agreement and usual bully tacktics to acheive this goal..

    Maybe in a few year we will have a pay-pr search internet in addition to the existing Microsoft tax.

  40. newssweb

    Wow, microsoft buying Yahoo will be better for competition???? Am i dreaming when this reporter mentioned that. Damn that what we called Oligopoly. Maybe here some Economics theory would help understand acquisition in the search landscape before we read all kind of stuff coming out from Techcrunch. Im being let down everyday by these reporters here

  41. Blowski

    Duncan - this post is spot-on, and the reason I read TechCrunch. Considered analysis that leads opinion, rather than rolling out old cliches.

    How do you actually think Google will react when the deal goes through? What changes might we see?

  42. Daniel Thomaser

    I don’t think it’s worth to discuss wether this “merge” will work or not. Same with the election. No one knows…

    Looks like the web folks still don’t want to realize, that google is not the supersexy superfunky underdog it used to be anymore. It’s not Bill Gates who is renting an island for his wedding.
    Google is a big corporation with almost no serious competition in the future’s most important market: the internet.
    In the end it’s all about the money and not about improving the world

  43. Liam

    “A Stronger Tail” — you can take Duncan out of Australia, but you can’t take the Aussie out of Duncan.

    Great work, mate. You crack me up. :)

  44. Miles Holland

    The overall ling term winner in online advertising will be the player who can offer the biggest audience. If you reach the masses, advertisers will follow quickly

  45. Google & Microsoft cannot buy NLS

    Microsoft have 20 years of experience on technology greed & conquest. Technology greed is Good. They grew up beating Xerox star, IBM, Apple, Lotus, Compaq, Linux, Unix, and almost beating 97% of all U.S companies.

    Yes, they are ready to take on Google search engine. Microsoft will someday take over Google and introduce new search engine innovations.

    The most interesting about Xerox natural language search, Powerset.
    Microsoft & Google can’t buy natural language search. If they did… They lose marketshares. Investors will lose tons of money. They will face Justice department and complaint about illegal competition & sales of Powerset or natual language search engine startups.

    I love competition stuff.

  46. Google & Microsoft cannot buy NLS

    NLS search engine is made out XEROX patented A.I SQL.

    I think Oracle, IBM, Microsoft, Google does have its own A.I SQL.

  47. Dave P

    My company spends a considerable amount of money with Google adwords. I find their customer service is awful. We are a fairly large company, but for 3 months we have to pay via credit card before they’ll consider letting us pay via a regular invoice/payment system. Credit card is a difficult way to pay thousands of $$ at a time-have to keep topping up the credit card, awkward paper trail… They wouldn’t budge- why should they? they have a monopoly.

  48. Aadaam

    We must understand that Google and Yahoo aren’t on the same market in every aspect: in fact, they try to get a share of several markets.

    - On search market, google may be still unbeatable even when the two companies merge, because of its focused flagship product
    - On communication/identity market, however, Google is easily hurt with such a decision: since the Live ID network can use google accounts for identification, but it does not work the opposite way
    - On web office, leisuretime web (social networks, etc), and portal markets, the MS-Yahoo conglomerate would also have some serious advantage over Google.

    So, Google is a monopoly on ONE market: search.

    An MS-Yahoo company would be a monopoly on at LEAST TWO OR THREE markets in which Google is interested.

  49. EH

    In other news: Microsoft is not as good as they think.

    Capitalism is a religion, and to badmouth deals like this is tantamount to heresy in the marketplace.

  50. Cory

    I for one am tired of all the knee-jerk “Microsoft-is-evil” reaction to this. Thank you, Duncan, for posting a reasonable analysis of the possible benefits of this acquisition.

  51. Philip Buxton

    Good stuff. Anti-MS feeling is very odd given that in ‘this world’ Microsoft is the plucky underdog. Kind of.

    It also gets you thinking about who will fill that number three spot. Seems to me that getting Ask and AOL on the same team has to be part of it. So a bid for IAC by Time Warner? Or a bid by IAC for AOL? Or a bid for both by someone else (News Corp?)?

  52. jb

    Is MS going to try to change Yahoo over to a Windows based platform? Is Jeremy Zawodny really going to go to work for Microsoft?!? Yahoo and Google are very much alike and are LAMP people. I think it’s bad to lose a major open source player.

    I don’t understand why people think that Yahoo is so doomed. They have good properties (maybe too many) and their earnings have been good. Why all the doom and gloom? I think their stock price took an unnecessary beating… especially with some of the other companies they have a stake in. I think it could have easily gone up to $36, but the fickle market took it down to $19 for some reason. Microsoft offering $31 is not a savior… the price was at $31 just two months ago!

    The only problem with Yahoo has been their ad platform… I tried it for my web site for a bit, it sucked. Correct that or acquire technology and they are a very very strong #3 and gaining on MS fast in the internet ad market.

    Yahoo, hold your ground! You have great products, great assets, great minds, and are good for the community!!!!!

  53. idf

    It wont happen. There are too many complexities in the deal. And MSFT borrowing cash to make the deal??

    http://p2plendingwithprosper.blogspot.com/

  54. Roy Gates the Prince of Microsoft

    Bill Gates’ kid…

    Roy Gates. We will call him “The prince of Microsoft” or “Royal Microsoft”. He is going to be most powerful and richest man in the world.

    All hail to king MICROSOFT…All startups & babies should knee him and built him software toys he wants. Some people choose Google. They will built toys for Google boys. Google boys should be more search engineers kids.

    The most interest future history will be:
    “The prince of Micosoft vs. Google boys”

    Which one do you join?

    Prince or Jokers. For startups… Well, we built software weapons for them. The more money we collect. We start building monster & intelligent weapons. Sad news, can’t stop the infections.

  55. John

    I love how you writers add a twist to your story. So because Google came out against the merger they are “very afraid”. Give me a break. Of course they were going to come out against the merger. Did you expect them to say “gee, we think this is great”.

  56. ITrush

    This is going to be a big hit.. very interesting post.

    nhick
    http://www.itrush.com

  57. John

    Oh, I forgot. It’s because they came out against it strongly that they are “afraid”. So if they had only come out against it luke warmly would it mean they were barely afraid?

  58. john

    google is one trick pony. you take online advertisement away, it goes down.

  59. Irving

    https://failmedianetwork.com/filecryptr/download.html?id=ae749bc6-bcd3-4af2-9b82-5c253eaca7ba

    pwd: this one is for you arrington

  60. Real Cards

    King, Queen, and Jack. For startups. we are 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9, 10 cards and sometimes Ace. Ace is one smartest. The legend killer — One can vanish Microsoft or Google frame on forbes magazine. Yes, we love ACE card.

    Facebook have Jack card.
    Flickr founder have Jack card.
    Myspace have jack card.

    Digg have 5 card.
    Powerset have 3 card.
    Mahalo have 3 card.

    Wikia have 2 card.
    Joost have 2 card
    Techcrunch have 2 card.
    Techmeme have 2 card.
    payperpost have 2 card.
    edgeio have 2 card.
    Alexa have 2 card.
    All you 2 startup cards is worthless and garbage.

    paypal 9 card. Sold by Ebay
    skype 9 card sold by Ebay.
    9 cards is Ebay attractive cards. 9 cards is startup shopping technology

    Microsoft buys startup with 6 card
    Google buys startup with 7 card
    Amazon buys startup with 8 card.

    Queen card is female startup getting sold by Microsoft or Google.

  61. Yellow Journalist

    Since when did TechCrunch start resorting to Yellow Journalism? What is it with Duncan’s sensationalist stuff in regards to Google lately? “Google is afraid” is not what I expect to see when I visit this site.

  62. Poor journalism

    Techcrunch is f*cking liar.

    This sounds like intern journalism–> “Google is afraid.” No joke.
    This is very poor level journalism or kiddie journalism. How do you know? Did you email or ask Google Founders & Executives about it?

    By the way… Google have a lot of money & exprience. Very simple question:
    Why did you print “Google is afriad” ?

  63. Broke Back mountain

    Maybe Gay Duncan Riley is afriad to ask Google question. You don’t have truth…

    For God’s sakes.
    You work Techcrunch for long time. Please email them.
    Ask them question:

    “Are you afriad of Microsoft?”

  64. Tony

    Google has a monopoly, and is active seeking a monopoly on information and architecture dependency. Website after website becoming dependent on their architecture (having to be high on their search results, adsense, and other APIs) isn’t all that different than computer after computer becoming dependent on windows. What Google does with that dependency over time will determine if they become ‘evil’ in the eyes of many like Microsoft has.

    However, while Google has the billion dollar algorithms, I think Yahoo is better at user-interface, and has better customer service. Microsoft has the dollars and marketing know-how when it comes to marketing products.

    A Microsoft acquisition of Yahoo, in my opinion, would be less about innovation and more of a study in a mass-marketing campaign to permanently hook clients. Yahoo’s brand makes Microsoft friendlier. Microsoft’s brand makes Yahoo more dangerous to competitors.

    Google’s response might be to buy some giant marketing firm, some giant customer support company, and update the look-and-feel of their applications - shoring up areas where they have some weaknesses.

    So I agree with this post in that running around fearing Microsoft isn’t necessary. Fearing Google becoming more like Microsoft is. I think it would be good for all 3 companies. At least there would be two competitors instead of one, like now. That might keep them all somewhat honest.

  65. Marzipan from Toledo

    All of you haters need to take a step back. The problem with MS on the desktop market was that there wasn’t any real competition.

    Do you really think the merger of Y! + MS is going to kill off Google?

    People are saying that the newly formed entity will control 80% of webmail. Well BFD, you still have the option to use GMAIL, INBOX, AIM mail, etc. This merger won’t have any impact on them.

    I use google a lot but lately I’ve also been using Live.com for search and you know what, it’s pretty damn good - in fact for some searches I have found it much better.

    Their bird’s eye view in the maps is awesome too, so they are doing some pretty interesting things that will hopefully gain more traction and put more pressure on Google to actually do something other than search+gmail+google analytics that is worthwhile. Look at all their other products, they are pretty half-assed, maybe now they’ll get them out of beta and make them full-fledged products.

  66. SCOGOSTOLOGY.COM

    At last, the unthinkable has happened. The sky has fallen down and the world is ending! Yahoo is being acquired by the 500Ib Redmond beast. Who in a million years would ever think that this day will ever come? I remember many years ago about using an excellent service called hotmail.com. It was the best e-mail service. But as soon as the 500Ib gorilla acquired it, that service went down the toilet and became a joke. Then there was WebTV. Where is it? WebT what? Now, Yahoo? May God help us, because in 5 yrs it may be Google’s turn to go to bed with the beast. I prefer that the Beast acquire Google now and leave Yahoo alone.

  67. nic pfost

    I agree that competition is a good thing. That’s good ol’ capitalism.

    But I don’t think Google is actually afraid of this merger. I think they just wanted to poke back at M$ for all the headaches of the DoubleClick deal.

    There’s no question about it: this merger (if it happens) will, at the very least, be a big-a** headache.

  68. Shawn McCollum

    I’m good with a microsoft buyout of yahoo. Google will adapt and maybe push themselves a little more. Maybe forcing google into microsoft areas like putting together a google apps appliance so enterprises can get out from behind exchange.

    I’d like to see Microsoft throw away live and msn, then put everything they’ve been sinking into those crap sites into Yahoo. Basically making two companies, Microsoft for the desktop and Yahoo for the Internet. That way if Microsoft goes back to their old habits it would be easier to break the company apart.

  69. Jan

    I don’t get it. Why is MS STILL considered evil? I think Google has much much more potential of becoming evil :)
    Evil Microsoft sounds like a show in VH1, with the so 90’s tag line underneath it.

  70. anonimo

    no se que deicr

  71. homo viator

    well, not too convinced about this article. Seems a little like a Business 101 student writing his homework last minute. Check out Scoble for an alternative view, one that I found way more convincing.

  72. Chris

    You do realize that the reason Google is scared is because Yahoo, via it’s Overture buy, owns the pattent that covers Adwords? Google settled with Yahoo on the inital patent dispute case but Micrsoft may go after them with it instead.
    http://www.techuser.net/gcoverup.html

  73. Adam Sharp

    Google isn’t afraid. They’re just taking some shots at Microsoft in return for the Doubleclick trouble. Now Microsoft may lighten up on that front, realizing Google can make trouble for them too.

    Plus there are legit concerns about how Microsoft will manage properties like Flickr.

    The real question for me isn’t whether this deal is “bad”. It’s whether Microsoft can manage all this web property in addition to their own. The answer, to me, is a resounding NO. MSN has the biggest advantage ever - being default homepage for IE. And they still bleed money.

    @Duncan - have you used Adcenter much? It’s really not a good platform. Many people in SEM find it infuriating. They and YSM are waaayyy behind Google here. The buyout will only slow them down, while Google keeps chugging along.

  74. Humble Pie

    I’m a Mac user/owner and have been since ‘93. And yes, I kept my Evangelist badge of honor through The Dark Times of ‘95-’97 when it looked like Apple could go bankrupt at any time…remember the cover of that Wired magazine issue? The one with the Apple logo with that optimistic message: “PRAY”.

    So, believe me, I’ve got one of the most blue-blood MS-Hater backgrounds you can imagine.

    But today, I fear the Google Monster more.

    I have to agree with Duncan here… Though it makes me shiver to say it. Google poses more of a threat to our future than Microhoo. Someone needs to become big enough to challenge them…and this is the only way.

    I also believe he’s correct on the start-up front. When someone new takes over the #3 and #4 spots (Ask.com, Mahalo.com ??, and others), the field of search may actually be BETTER OFF for it… Rather than having the top 3 be simply slight variations on the same theme, we could end up with some real innovations among the up-and-comers (Mahalo again comes to mind).

  75. Joe T.

    If Microsoft absorbs Yahoo, I think it won’t even register as a “blip” in terms of market dominance. Google will still be the unquestioned search and ad leader.

    The fact is that Yahoo is a dying brand with no innovation to speak of. It is greatly overvalued, and this deal will probably go down in history as being very similar to the AOL/Time Warner deal… Except with the roles reversed. AOL “bought” Time Warner in a stock swap, but it turned out that AOL was a huge drag on Time Warner. In this case, Microsoft is buying Yahoo, but Yahoo will be a huge drag on Microsoft.

    Yahoo = AOL

  76. Jared

    Nice write up Duncan. I completely agree.

    Even to MS is portrayed to be the root of all evil the acquisition would be good for Yahoo and good for the interweb.

  77. Joe T.

    Yahoo is not profitable because it is not converting visitors, i.e. not monetizing its pages well enough. Traffic is high but they don’t monetize it efficiently.

    MS’s gambit is that, with its superior technology, they’ll somehow figure out how to make money from Yahoo’s traffic.

    Don’t count on it. Microsoft is a SOFTWARE company. They are not McKinsey.

    This is very similar to the pie-in-the-sky plans Ted Leonsis, Richard Parsons, and others had of converting AOL subscribers into ATMs, by selling them music, photo sharing, movies, TV-on-the-web, etc. It turns out all these things were, are, or will soon be, available elsewhere, so who needed AOL to serve them up?

    Same with Microsoft/Yahoo.

    There is nothing in Yahoo’s current bag of tricks that can be converted into a big money-making opportunity for Microsoft, no matter how you slice and dice it, or no matter what kind of magical technologies you deploy.

    Yahoo is all Web 1.0 stuff, and soon we’ll be moving into Web 3.0. The companies that are pioneering Web 3.0 are all start-ups right now. The dominators are companies we haven’t even heard of. Not Yahoo.

  78. Sell it to Cisco systems

    There’s only two company that will buy the whole Yahoo & yahoo shares.
    CISCO SYSTEM . The biggest shareholder.

  79. Aydin Mirzaee

    good post Duncan, I agree. I am definitely afraid of a world where Google dominates all.

  80. shams

    Very long discussions :-) . Big companies can move the world from one day to the other.

  81. BubbleHead

    And GOOG is going to be the biggest company on the planet, right Duncan? I think if you check back to the date you wrote that article, you were within a few days of the all time high on GOOG stock.

    Nice Call

  82. drhowarddrfine

    The “Google is also a monopoly” line does not work here. If Google disappeared right this very second, you could happily do all your work and not notice.

    If Microsoft disappeared right this second. You would have to scramble to find and learn new methods to do much of the work you do.

    Microsoft directly affects what you do and how you do it. Google does not.

  83. Joseph

    Google is the big dominator - but somehow has the image of being far more freindly than Microsoft.

    It’s younger, fresher, and protects net neutrality!

  84. Tony

    #81: Google disappearing right this second would very much affect you if your website was dependent on their architecture. If a key aspect of your web site was using their maps, APIs, or if you made all of your money off of their advertisement network, then it certainly would affect you.

    There are companies that have sued Google because they dropped in search rankings and their revenue tanked. I would say that’s a direct effect. The more websites and applications become dependent on google, the more google becomes like microsoft in that respect.

  85. Max

    Re comment 38, I have to completely disagree regarding the parity of search results between Yahoo/MSN and Google. I use Flock, which has Yahoo as the default search engine, and I constantly end up going back to Google — the quality of search results is miles better in my experience. Also, if you like to access the cached copy of something, Google is also far superior in maintaining its cache– Yahoo won’t have results in its cache at least 50 percent of the time.

  86. ron diggity

    MSFT AND YHOO the best combination. EAT IT GOOGLE!

  87. Trevor Speirs

    The big fear is the combined web email accounts of Yahoo! and Microsoft. That could be a huge strategic assets if either of them could execute a good web strategy. If Yahoo! and Microsoft alone move at a glacial pace when trying to execute strategically, what makes anyone think that they will move quicker when the two dramatically different cultures combine???
    See my recent blog post for additional thoughts.

  88. Joshua

    Right now there are 3 players. Google, Microsoft and Yahoo. After the merger there are TWO players. The only people that benefit are those at MS and Yahoo (possibly). We as end users and consumers of their services would best be served if other companies come into the market to compete. Not by huge / dominant companies merging together.

    Is it a good idea for MS? Probably. Does that mean its good for us? Not necessarily.

  89. Kelli

    Someone much smarter than Duncan (Fake Steve Jobs) said it best:

    “The Borg-Yahoo merger won’t work. Here’s why. It’s like taking the two guys who finished second and third in a 100-yard dash and tying their legs together and asking for a rematch, believing that now they’ll run faster.”

    Microsoft will have to make up the money they spent somehow, don’t you think they won’t raise the price of advertising? More will go to Google of course.

    Please Duncan, don’t say that Google is scared. Microsoft doesn’t scare them but they are right, MS-YHOO will have an insanely huge e-mail, IM, share and don’t think they won’t make money advertising through that.

    Remember Microsoft for “Embrace, Extend and Extinguish”. They don’t want to compete, they want to rule all and don’t care if it pleases us or crushes us.

  90. Richard Yaker

    What about Zimbra? Now Yahoo has one of the few alternatives to Microsoft Exchange. Microsoft will kill Zimbra, or make it part of exchange. No longer competition.

    I have seen no mention this anywhere in anyones analysis.

  91. Eric

    I welcome the days when I will need to use a cd key to “unlock” docs.microsoft.com!

  92. Paul

    The Redmond army is just marching deeper into Russia

  93. drhowarddrfine

    83@Tony,

    You are talking services you use, not the ability to access those services. There are other advertising services, maps, and everything else you mention. You could switch to those rather easily.

    If Windows goes away, how easily and quickly could you switch to another OS? This is a “locked in” syndrome that does not exist with Google.

  94. Adam Sharp

    @ #88 - Kelli, thanks for pointing out that Fake Steve post. Pretty damn hilarious and on-point.

    http://fakesteve.blogspot.com/.....ideas.html

  95. I am not writing to spam my website

    Yahoo is already dying a slow death. So it isn’t a bad thing to sacrifice it for competition.

    http://www.i-am-not-writing-to-spam-my-website.com

  96. Joe

    I want to see this thing happen.

  97. Tony

    @92: Buying a Mac or installing Linux is not hard. There are plenty of alternatives for every piece of software that Microsoft puts out, and they’re not hard to install (and they will interact with most Microsoft file types). Plus, if you are building a complex web site/web application, migrating from one set of APIs and standards (like Google’s) to another (like Yahoo’s) can be a chore, depending on the circumstances.

    Lack of alternatives and difficulty of implementing them is not the issue when it comes to Microsoft, but rather their mentality when it comes to control of market share - which is one reason why people think of them as ‘evil’.

    However, Google to a certain extent very much wants you ‘locked in’ - any company that wants to make money wants you to continue to use their services. The difference is the arena in which Google wants to lock things down. Rather than at an individual PC level, they are looking to ‘lock in’ information flow on the internet.

    Open Social is a perfect example of this. It’s a great idea, but it still is inviting sites and developers to rely on Google for their products to work. Google may not control the information itself, but in these cases they do control the mechanism by which information is accessed.

    Their search engine is another good example of this. It doesn’t change the content of your website - but because of their huge market share, if you don’t meet their criteria to rank high in search results, no one is getting to your content.

    Google wants to be the operating system of the internet.
    Rather than hardware, OS, and client software (which is Microsoft’s domain) - they are treating the entire internet as their hardware, the massive Google infrastructure and excellent search algorithm as the OS, and web-based services as client software.

    Right now, it’s working out great for all of us. But if Google faces no real competition, they could eventually take on a more Microsoft-ish approach to the control they exert (a hyper-”locked in” syndrome to your point) - and that would be bad.

  98. Disclosure Needed

    I too think TechCrunch should print an investment disclosure with its stories, especially one such as this. I personally like the idea of a MSFT-YHOO acquisition, but I will benefit from the stock activity.

  99. TheDuhMoment

    Duncan,

    You give Yahoo too much credit. It hasn’t been top tier for a long time (Yahoo Finance aside).

  100. salary Xpert

    @93 I want to have a dying company like Yahoo

  101. Zoo

    I haven’t seen this mentioned much but what exactly is Yahoo gaining from Microsoft other than money that shareholders will cash out immediately when the merger is complete?

    People act like Yahoo is already dead, but last I saw, Microsoft can’t even compete with Yahoo on any level, much less Google. In addition, Yahoo IS still making plenty of profit, just not at the rate that Google is. A lot of you guys are not looking at the actual facts.

    All I can see happening is a bigger trainwreck than AOL TW ever was, and AOL TW actually made sense at the time!

  102. Moe Glitz

    If this takeover was eventually able to be completed, then Microsoft should use Yahoo’s valuable Web brand by integrating their own Web Based Services straight into the Yahoo mix.

    For Starters, the MSN portal should be discontinued and all of Microsoft’s Live Products and Services should be added to the Yahoo portfolio and renamed Yahoo Live.
    This means that Hotmail, Live Messenger and Live Search should all be added to the Yahoo Menu.
    Plus all of Microsoft’s new Advertising Platforms should also be integrated with Yahoo’s Ad Partnerships under the Yahoo Ads umbrella.

    Microsoft must use this tremendous opportunity to integrate all of their major Web brands into the Yahoo empire and use Yahoo as their only Web Based brand.
    By using the Yahoo brand as their major Web flagship, Microsoft can then concentrate on what it does best by developing new and innovative Windows and Office Services for the IT World.

    Of course in the future Microsoft may wish to release some parts of its Windows and Office Services for Online Subscribers and use the Windows brand across the Enterprise Web for ‘Cloud Computing’.
    But in regards to Search, Ads and Communications, Microsoft should only use the Yahoo brand as their major Web Based platform.

    With the right people on board, Yahoo could become a major revenue earner for the future Microsoft Web empire.

  103. howard

    Google may be tops in search, but their life blood is placing adsense ads on publishers websites.

    that’s where they are vulnerable. NOBODY IS LOYAL TO GOOGLE. Publishers want to monetize their sites. Google adsense is a closed system with no reporting, no way to know if you are getting your best return on your traffic.

    If Yahoo can build a better ad placement technology, blend in CPA/lead generation or other higher monetization components, report clearly to publishers what their sites are doing, what keywords are bringing what traffic and what revenue.

    Give us a grep tool that will walk our sites and replace google adsense code with their code.

    make me more money and i’ll drop google tomorrow.

    also on the Google Doubleclick deal, FTC should make it conditional on google agreeing to never favor in its search results sites that use adsense.

    those two issues would bring google back to earth.

  104. Hendra

    This is BAD for Open Source community in general.

    As seen on http://itmanagement.earthweb.c.....hp/3725691

    “In order to improve its public image, Yahoo recently organized initiatives like workshops targeted at open source developers. Think of these as the distant equivalent of Google’s Summer of Code, which provided funding to Free software projects such as KDE, WordPress, Drupal and various independent projects – projects that begin as nothing more than a proposal from an ambitious computer science student with spare time.

    Microsoft sells software for the desktop, unlike Yahoo, which is more focused on services that are delivered over the Web. If Microsoft were to acquire Yahoo, there would either be a conflict of interest or a situation where open source projects receive funding if and only if they build upon (even enrich) the Microsoft stack, including Windows. The Yahoo we once knew would no longer offer the same kind of treatment to Free software. “

  105. nimbus

    Whoever made this article is stupid as hell.

    You think Microsoft will complete nicely????!!!! Bullshit.

    I outta kick your ass for this article.

  106. John

    “What about Zimbra? Now Yahoo has one of the few alternatives to Microsoft Exchange. Microsoft will kill Zimbra, or make it part of exchange. No longer competition.

    I have seen no mention this anywhere in anyones analysis.”

    Great point Richard! Zimbra (www.zimbra.com) was the first serious contender to MS Exchange in years (Lotus is there but not new) and is so much more innovative on several fronts. So much for the market seeing another good Exchange competitor.

  107. Rod

    “None of this is meant as Google bashing. Google has done much good and as Google loves to argue, people choose to use Google, nobody is forced to use their services. ”

    Why are you afraid of Google?

  108. Live Footy

    too bad Yahoo didnt take the money :(

  109. Ryan

    I agree with ShackledToMsTech. Most people seem to be concerned only about search and ads, which is where the money is. But I think it’s about more than that. For one, it’s like two media conglomerates combining. NBC and Fox combining would be bad for everyone. Moreover, Yahoo! has done great things for proliferating the openness of the internet. They’ve been great with their push for YUI and lobbying for open standards and internet advancement — Microsoft has not. What of all their Flash content — will it not get pushed into Silverlight? Overall, I think this is a bad deal for all consumers of the internet.

  110. Olabode O O

    The best bet in any market is stiff competition. Google understands yahoo is needed to stand up to Google. Google on the other is enjoying its present position as the leader in the market and would venture all possibiities to hold on to it. Such, is the desire of every business.

    So let’s sit back while we await the INNOVATION of the CENTURY!

  111. Olabode O O

    CORRECTION PLEASE #110 above

    The best bet in any market is stiff competition. Microsoft understands yahoo is needed to stand up to Google. Google on the other is enjoying its present position as the leader in the market and would venture all possibiities to hold on to it. Such, is the desire of every business.

    So let’s sit back while we await the INNOVATION of the CENTURY!