Yesterday I was scheduled to appear live on the Happy Hour show on the Fox Business Channel. The show is held at the Bull and Bear bar at the Waldorf Astoria hotel in New York, with customers milling around and drinking. I can’t believe no one has rushed the set as a prank yet.
The topic, I thought, was our presidential endorsements of Barack Obama and John McCain.
But we never actually talked about that. Instead, host Cody Willard dove into a general discussion of Yahoo v. Google and what might happen in an upcoming recession. A topic that I think about often and that is very timely given the layoffs at Yahoo, but I have to say I was caught completely off guard. But we were live on tv and so I just sort of kept talking.
Near the end I hinted at a strong rumor that has been floating around Silicon Valley: that Yahoo may someday have to face a very tough decision - to eiher kill its advertising network and partner with Google to boost revenues, or lose the entire company to a merger with Microsoft or a painful sale to a hedge fund.
Yahoo is in a precarious position right now, and things might get worse before they get better. Microsoft could buy them with cash they have in the bank (although a stock deal would be more sensible). The next six months will likely determine if Yahoo is a long term independent brand.
See all
Post
Or Yahoo could Change its Biz Model
Oh god save us all from an M$Yahoo portal!!!
Is Yahoo headed for the Deadpool?
Maybe they should just cut back on a couple of their services that are not as successful.
So….these guys use the ol’ Arrington interview trick….gotta respect them!
Nice Job Mike. Excellent on Fox.
Congrats. Keep it rolling
Clicks denote a prospects interest, tv ads do not. That is why online advertising will not suffer greatly.
What’s the first thing one is taught about being on camera? Keep the hands flying around to a minimum. To your credit, Mike, you’re well coached. Someone forgot to coach the German bar hostess interviewing you. Good lord.
How much will Microsoft need to spend to buy Yahoo? How much is Yahoo worth and how much will it be sold to Microsoft?
That would be YOUR endorsement sir.
I find it funny that a company that makes money and turns over huge amounts can be marked as in trouble.
I actually think google could end up in trouble, lets face it the search results from google are slowly getting worse and people will end up going to yahoo for search if they could pull off a decent search platform. I think people in the tech new biz forget that they are not yahoos core audience and their audience must be pretty happy as they are not losing traffic to google for anything other than search.
yahoo will bounce back and will do great under the new ceo. wait and watch
I agree Darren. I find this yahoo vs google conversation comical. All it takes for Google to crash and burn is an alternative to the Pay-Per-Click model.
I made a post about this last week and think a few small changes could really turn Yahoo around.
http://www.leebandoni.com/2008.....hoo-broke/
The downfall of Yahoo! Inc would be great for web 2.0. It would leave such a vacuum that it could fuel a boom in itself.
The more big consolidated players fall, the better for the next gen.
Yahoo……………………….. no more.
http://www.jhatak.com
Free Web Meetings
I personally stopped advertising on Google last year because ROI sucks - I still advertise on yahoo. I might be one in a million, but the fact remains that online advertising will suffer in a US downturn for these reasons:
1. Dependance on large groups of advertisers - the pull back in spending by mortgage bankers and lenders and real estate companies may have taken 10-20% off google’s top line - watch for it during their earnings call
2. Bid-based ad networks - all it takes is for a few advertisers to leave to cause prices to tumble (ala eBay)
3. Browsers versus shoppers - in a recession, people will still use the internet to browse or look at things they wish they could buy - this reduces ROI significantly for keyword buyers, and to a point where advertisers simply shut off campaigns or pull back bids.
Remember - ease of creating a campaign also means ease of terminating that same campaign. TV and Radio buyers are locked into longer term contracts…
Companies with high organic traffic like eBay, Amazon and the like should fare better simply because they can suspend advertising and still bring in customers at higher ROI than anyone else, and their multiples are relatively low at this point.
Yahoo will need to re-invent itself if they intend to remain an independent player. At the moment, they seem to be unable to do that.
It was bound to happen at some point.
Wow, that chick was hard to listen to. I think the only thing she knows how to say is “bricks and mortar.”
Yahoo will need to modernize its appearance, to make it more attractive and less complicated
Bill Gates never mentioned a merger with Yahoo in his London talk earlier today ;0)
I thought you were fine, Arrington, but holy god that show looks terrible.
I’m sure that Yahoo will come back stronger than ever.
I think Yahoo will implement the changes to make them a key player for the future.
lol - both those hosts are couple of yahoos
Those two hosts are awful, especially the girl. Ill continue to stick with cnbc
Probably with a change at the helm there will be new ideas to get things moving in the right direction.
you mean that channel is still broadcasting? I guess Murdoch’s pockets are quite deep….
Declaring Yahoo to be in a “precarious” state is an over emphasizing their problems. They aren’t losing money and are still profitable. Countrywide was a company in a precarious position - not Yahoo. Let’s not forget the huge amount of traffic Yahoo gets on a daily basis. Stagnant might be a better word to describe Yahoo’s ills.
Man those free employee lunches are really killing Google.
Man that chick has nice legs! I’m sure you had a “hard” time not looking at them. LOL. Yahoo.Live would rock!
(2) points.
1. Micheal by being on T.V. more and more, you are becoming a ‘authority’ for real life investing and internet news, this doubles your value. Good job!
2. That chick was annoying, and the fellow was a kiss ass.
With 500 mllion unique and 4 billion page views per day, it’s almost comical that a company can screw things up. Mr. Semel was a real piece of work. Already, I’m hearing people bash Yang. But I’m willing to see what’s up his sleeve before I jump on the bandwagon.
Mike - you rocked in that interview - excellent job.
Yahoo needs to trim a lot of its fat, come up with a cohesive strategy, and then execute. It got way bloated over the years building / acquiring too many unrelated services without a cohesive direction. If Jerry can come up with that strategy, Yahoo can reinvent itself.
Yahoo! cutting 1000 jobs won’t make a dent. Mediocrity and disorganization is not only a US problem but a global program with Yahoo! It looks like China and Japan are the only profitable countries, and rightfully so because Yahoo! doesn’t control business decisions from operation and advertising. Yahoo’s problems didn’t start in 2007; they started in 2003. Take a look at the management team globally - you can’t blame the people below if those leading can’t give clear direction or vision. What a mess!
“I can’t believe no one has rushed the set as a prank yet.”
Wondered that myself.
You actually looked more adult on TV than you appear as an author.
You stole the show from those two chicks! Well done!
@34 I’m with you on that one. Why do women who report financial news always sound so whiny???
Great job Mike. You seem to be getting much more comfortable being on TV. Very smooth discussion on both ends however, that woman was getting VERY annoying….
Honestly, I would hate to see Yahoo become Yahoo Live! We have been discussing Yahoo at namepros.com ( a domainer forum). Donny Simonton, CTO of parked.com has a credible 5 page turnaround plan for Yahoo. We hope that his 5 page recommendation on how Yahoo can once again get back on track, is read by the top guns at Yahoo. Hopefully, a post here can get their attention to read his suggestions.
Here is a reference to Donny Simonton’s post at namepros.com.
http://www.namepros.com/2503667-post3488.html
Yahoo…. are you listening?
Moreover, Yahoo is cheap!!
Demonstration:
Yahoo’s audience was around 468M worldwide users in Jan 07.
Yahoo bourse capitalisation is about $25Md.
That means a user will cost $53 to Microsoft ($25Md/468M=$53).
An average Cost per click on Google is $0,54.
Hence, Microsoft will just need 100 clicks per user on a sponsored link to retabilize is acquisition (100*0,54=$54).
So, if Microsoft has the financial capabilities to purchase Yahoo, it has to do so and very fast (before Google does!)
So obvious the powers that be at News Corp don’t like your endorsement, not in line with their “talking point of the day” and thus railroaded you with another topic.
Fox is weak.
Nice job Mike, good presence, and good insight.
Agree with all who say Mike did a whiz bang job in the interview. And why the heck didn’t they let him talk about the TC prez candidates? Kind of a timely and interesting topic, no?
Now, to Fox Business in general. What a great opportunity wasted so far. If they had shows with interesting, sharp hosts … and if they presented truly interesting ‘Main street’ content, brick and LOTs of Click, more Tech Crunchy topics … then they’d have a chance at building audience. First reports say their viewership is single digit thousands each hour, so it’s in the pooper. I am not a Fox basher like others. I was hoping the channel would offer something different and compelling to give a viable alternative to the more ‘executive suite-ish’ CNBC.
The breakfast show is awful. I wince when they go to one of their reporters, who’s standing 30 feet away on a raised platform with laptop … like a mini dance stage in the distance. Now I’m picturing Ross and Monica doing ‘their dance’ at the Rockin New Years Eve party.
The Happy Hour show is a decent and creative concept. But geepers it’s annoying. Liz Claman is their best personality, but the poor thing gets drowned out by her overbearing counterpart.
I vote Mike Arrington for a regular Techcrunch ‘blog on TV’ segment.
@43: you say ONLY 100 clicks per user
BUT:
1) a part of the price for the click is going to the publisher, if we say half of the 50 cents, than they need already 200 clicks
2) 100 (or 200) click per user in average are a lot of clicks, since many user does not click at all, so others have to click more
let me tell you, how many google ads have you already clicked in your life? me perhaps 30, not 30
so I need another 15 years to fulfil my task on such a deal (:
sorry, I misspelled this in @47:
me perhaps 30, not more
Mike, Why attack Yahoo?
Google was one who kick you off Google Jet. Don’t tell us is “different”.
They really kick off Google Jet.
Why attack Yahoo?
Ugh, this show needs help. Too much head bouncing, hand gestures and “bricks and mortar” (WOW, I’ve never heard THAT term before). Shoot me.
I’m just amazed that Google’s stock has gone down so much. They’re still cheaper than Yahoo on a forward P/E basis.