Online Ad Spending Growth To Slow, No Need To Panic

first comment for the 3rd time…

going slowly? gotta panic… don’t calm me down…

I couldnt find in the article where it mentions 29%. Where did you get that from?

Bernanke
NY Times, last link in the post. I did do some of the sums myself but not that one.

it seems a sign…..

but google’s numbers mean a [92.9% increase over 5 years]

will others player suffer from it?

Duncan,

I don’t think you read that graphic. That is not year over year growth — it’s the BREAKDOWN of advertiser by category. Notice that if you add up all the fields in a particular column, it ALWAYS adds up to 100%. The advertising market might be growing 200% Year over Year and have no impact on the distribution of advertising across the then-bigger pie. That’s not what that chart is showing.

This is just showing the breakdown of advertising across different categories…

Bill

Also — Duncan, it might be that you did read that graphic and I am a dolt, but it seems irrelevant to actually showing growth vs non-growth in online advertising, which is the title of the post:)

Bill

Bill
the bottom line figure shows total ad spend in $, the figures above that show the breakdown. The % increases are taken from the bottom line figure, then the ad spend per sector taken from the % of each over the bottom line figure which shows the dollar value. Are all the figures totally relevant? no, but the relevant ones are there and it’s not my chart

eMarketer doesn’t know what they are talking about. AdAge and other major consultancies have widely differing estimates for the online ad market in 2011.

For example, AdAge preidcts Social Network spending to reach $6.2b

Silicon Valley Guy
the wonders of predicting the future is that two parties rarely agree exactly on the figures. On the bright side no one is predicting a slide however

is adsense paid search or display ad?
it makes a different.

=)
good point but I’d suggest (95% sure) paid search is ads next to Google (and others) search results, Adsense would fall into display advertising.

thanks, another question. the chart says (% of online spending and billions), does it mean 42 billions???
that much just for online ads?

=)
at the figure for 2012 correct, $42b and that’s US only…if you’ve been around long enough to remember the birth of the commercial web in the mid 90s that’s a pretty amazing figure.

does this below math work??

at 75% market share of paid search, google in 2011 will have a rev of $12.6B (from current $15B ttm). so what would the cap on the stock price be?

Who cares about the states? Ad dollars will be spend more and more in the apac region every month

i don’t believe it actually. i think it will grow even faster

The growth is pretty astounding. But, when you consider that more than one-third of the U.S. population is online via a broadband connection for more than 5 hours a day, the percentage of advertising spent online vs offline channels is still way out of balance for the five years. Find out how people spend that time online with reliable market data from Netpop at Netpop.com.

How much percentage adword is contributing to google for online ad endeavor?

We are not fully up and running!

http://fakesteveballmer.blogspot.com

I’m curious about the breakdown between Adwords “Search Network” and Adwords “Content Network” (AdSense).

Does anyone know what percent of Google’s revenues are from which network?

My experience using Adwords is indicating that as much as 90% of Google’s revenues (or generated clicks, at any rate) is coming from the “Content Network”. Could a massive majority of Adwords “clickers” be clicking from web sites posting AdSense ads based on content, and only a minority of Google’s business be from actual “search”?

The big story: online commerce and advertising is finally getting large enough that it’s impacting on legacy businesses. Online growth is slowing because it’s starting to feel the edges of the container. Offline media spends are collapsing, supported only by inertia — both large and small businesses are a little afraid of making the transition to online advertising; on top of that, various sectors of the media industry are facing a “perfect storm” of changing conditions.

I live near a small city that has a shrinking daily newspaper. The paper gets thinner every month, and they’ve laid off half of the writers. A small display ad in the paper costs $100 a day — many businesses in town are shelling out $30k a year or more for newspaper ads, but increasingly they’re realizing that they don’t get their money’s worth. As our “paper of record” gives up on reporting real local news, we’re seeing several free weekly newspapers pick up the slack… They’re a little bit like blogs: various authors push everything from republican propaganda to ecological consciousness, but the result is a paper that’s both profitable and civic minded.

Many small businesses aren’t ready to make the leap to the web.

Last year I told my account that I was working for a web development firm, and he asked he how much a web site cost. I told him that I wasn’t in sales, and couldn’t quote a price, but that a site with a CMS and a little graphic arts work cost a few k. He looked a little sick — he was probably thinking of spending $80 or so. He only needs to gain another 10 or 20 clients to pay for a good web site, and he’s spending more than that on other media, but he isn’t convinced of the value.

The television industry is melting down. It’s being dragged into the HDTV world when the economics of television are trending towards more channels of cheaper content. Many segments of the industry, such as television news, appeal to an aging demographic — which is going to become a poor demographic as boomers “retire”… A few percent of them will be comfortable, but most of them will be the losers of the triple-ponzi lottery of social security, stocks and housing bubbles.

People under 50 are kicking the TV habit — between the internet, video games and real life, many of them will never get back into it.

Like my accountant, large businesses are still skeptical of online and they’re irrationally supporting old media. Someday they’ll wise up.

A friend of mine is developing a portal with a local audience. He wants to sell advertising directly to local businesses — five years ago I would have told him he was crazy, but the time might be right.

Eventually, funding will come to market AdblockPlus directly to consumers and the *real* marketers will have a serious dilemma. I hope that risk is stated in anyone’s business plan that depends on adverts. Especially google. Who would possibly fund the effort? A non-profit of some sort or maybe consumer reports.

Max Kalehoff, from Online Spin wrote a very good article about it. it’s not to panic, but i believe we’ll see a contraction soon.

BLIPD.COM IS P2P VIDEO MARKETING
BLIPD.COM IS DISTRIBUTED VIDEO COMMERCE
BLIPD.COM IS DEMOCRATIZED ADVERTISING
BLIPD.COM IS LIVE

CRACK THE TUBE, EVERYONE IS GOING TO GET BLIP’D.

Re #22

Ads, in and of themselves, are not a bad thing.

Advertising can be harmful in a number of ways, but it’s not entirely unwanted by consumers.

Subscription revenue from newspapers and magazines subsidizes advertisments, not the other way around. An ad-free newspaper could sell for less than one with ads: you’d think that ad-free newspapers would be successful, but they aren’t… People would rather pay more for the newspaper with ads.