Однако мы, тем не менее, настойчиво продолжаем верить в серийного предпринимателя, обладающего “прикосновением Мидаса”. Мы превращ….

ROFL; you are kidding, right ? Did you miss Mamma, Toile, or that unknown little upstart, Google.ca ?

Second time around, your execution will be way better. You still face the long odds on the idea.

82% to 70% sounds about right.

Let’s face it, these first timers, who are really capable, are typically in the right place at the right time… So, luck is the primary factor of first timers. I have heard this from them in interviews over and over from successful entrepreneurs. Like it was during the first Internet boom, the second boom or they happened to meet the right person at the right time. This is just like any other industry. People made it big in railroads, oil, cars, HagenDaz, etc., etc, especially during these industries growth phases. Just look at the Microsoft deal with IBM. Think that brilliance was at work. They basically bought DOS from a guy who made it for fun.

So, let’s eliminate the first success factor and decide that fate does have something to do with it. Win the lottery second time around. It does happen, but lightning rarely strikes the second spot twice. Second time around requires more brains and money, because you are not getting lucky this time around buddy. You are going to have to work for it, like every other struggling entrepreneur.

Youth does have something to do with it, especially in services that mostly sell to, you got it, to youth markets. That is what these Internet booms are all about, servicing youth markets. As the volumes of young Internet users move into their 30s, 40s and 50s, you will see this industry age a bit.

If you are trying to evaluate entrepreneurship with measurements and valuations on first, second, third attempts you might as well be playing craps. The most important thing is they do attempt again and stay away from a real job.

And I agree that it can stymie innovation. Look at the movie industry. You’ve got “bankable stars” putting out crap and there are tons of filmmakers and actors who can’t get a job. Did anyone see “Bee Movie?”

Contrary to the post on taking money earlier, I actually think a lot of second timers are doing exactly what you say at the end of your post - self funding through the first phase in order to keep control. That way, they avoid massive dilution and can get better terms.

Our founder posted some interesting comments about your post (he is a second time entrepreneur as well) on our blog.

Maria

Amazon - Jeff Bezos, 13 years after starting AMZN owns 100 million shares or about 25% of the shares today. After umpteen offerings. He had 49% at or maybe even after the IPO as I recall.

Apple - Jobs got fired. The bulk of his wealth came from Pixar not Apple. Even his Apple wealth was because he sold NEXT to Apple. After he got fired in the 80s, he sold all of his Apple stock.

Dell - Michael Dell didn’t raise money until he was considering going public…and Goldman Sachs convinced him to do a private placement. That’s why homes is so rich.

Ebay, Google, and Yahoo! - each of the founders held on to huge enough stakes where they were able to resist the institutional imperative to sell early. As Zuckerberg is able to do. When you get too diluted, you can’t.

MSFT - Gates, Allen, and Ballmer owned over 60% AFTER the IPO. MSFT’s only investment prior to IPO was $1 million from David Marquadt for 5%.

ORCL - Ellison never sells shares and they never raised money in the first 5 years of existence. He is in debt like $1 billion because he never sells ORCL shares, but instead borrows against the shares to live large.

The lesson is this: DON’T GET DILUTED. You will make more on a $20 million exit than you will on a $100 exit if you avoid this. And guess what, there are a lot more buyers at $20 million than $100 million. And you can sell earlier in your company’s history and get paid.

“better the devil you know”

Even bad conversation is better than no conversation. That’s a proven fact. Look at Paris Hilton. I’d rather get shred up in an article in the NYT than a glowing review in the Buckbill creek journal.

Here you’ve got a guy trying to run a company taking time out of his day to try to share some potentially relevant and insightful thoughts. And to think that there are people walking this planet who actually make insane comments like “stop writing here - get your own blog - we don’t come here to hear from you”.

What is wrong with this planet? As far as I can tell, the ONLY thing you can always bet on is that people are always going to treat other people like shit.

Pretty F’n sad.

But to be really great, I wonder if second-timers have to forget some of what it cost us so much to learn.

Real entrepreneurs are constantly learning. In reality, what they’re doing is getting inside the OODA loop of a major market or competitor. It isn’t about what they know at any point in time, it’s their uncanny ability to see what will happen and anticipate a moving target.

More on my blog:

http://smoothspan.wordpress.co.....s-succeed/