The latest forecast for Internet advertising is out from eMarketer, which says that in the U.S. it will rise from $21 billion this year to $42 billion in 2011. During that time period, Web advertising’s share of the overall ad market in the U.S will also roughly double from 7.4 percent to 13.3 percent. Another data point: The average person online in the U.S. is expected to spend $114 online in 2007. That number is expected to grow to $199 per person in 2011. The numbers are based on data from the Interactive Advertising Bureau and PriceWaterhouseCoopers. Remember, these sorts of forecasts are almost always wrong. In a way, they are a better measure of current sentiment towards the online advertising sector, which remains exceedingly bullish despite all other forms of advertising struggling or sinking.
by
Erick Schonfeld
on
November 7, 2007
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Inflation will account for a percentage of this increased spending.
However, technology and increased RAM faster processor speedswill allow consumers and businesses to do almost everything they need via the Web – quickly and seamlessly.
It is always good to be sceptical about such forecasts, particularly when they come at the peak of an ad cycle (yes, advertising is a cyclical business, even internet advertising – ask Yahoo how it felt in 2001!)
well, there are a lot of major companies (AOL, Microsoft in addition to the aforementioned Google, Facebook) betting that there are some truly huge gains to be made here. And given that the internet accounts for 18% of collective media time, yet only 8% of ad spending, there’s certainly room for growth. sick of those pop ups that track with you while you scroll? i’m sure these corporations can come up with something more innovative and effective.
Yep… everyone and his (or her) brother will be placing ads everywhere… will anyone actually be reading them… at all… even when they aren’t being blocked by the use of ad-blockers? (They just get “tuned out”.)
Microsoft will harvest the lion-share of that revenue too!
We are serious about this, you only thought you got a lot of spam and pop-ups before, just wait until we get through!
http://fakestev...er.blogspot.com
Hopefully Manolo brings up their online advertising budget too. =).
This just shows the resiliency of online advertising and the business model of giving services away for “free”: http://fishtrai...ne-advertising/
I wonder what % of ad buys are “of quality” (e.g. major brands) and not just Subprime Mortgage adverts and other ads for Startups flush with fresh VC cash.
Also, I assume that the total ad slot inventory will increase (given Facebook and MSFT interest), so I wonder if that will put downward pressures on pricing or not.
Techcrunch coverage of startups to plummet to 0 in next 2 years in favor google, facebook and mainstream tech coverage.
The advertising income from THIS site will be donated to OLPC. http://nmwoodworks.com until Nov. 7, 2008
hopefully it will change somehow to new ways
I think I saw this chart 7 years ago!!!
The Internet accounting for 13.3 percent of all media spending in 2011 seems low, at least a conservative estimate.
They’ll need to recalculate one all media is “transmitted” over the internet and it’s just the device or display mechanism that’s different.
The bottom line is advertising generally works. As long as that remains true spending will grow and rightly so.
We shouldn’t be surprised at these numbers. I think they are underestimating here.
Unfortunately, Internet advertising remains the minority of the Media market
But actually, the crucial question in these predictions is “WHO gonna take the money?”
“The Internet and the World Wide Web are not synonymous. The Internet is a collection of interconnected computer networks, linked by copper wires, fiber-optic cables, wireless connections, etc. In contrast, the Web is a collection of interconnected documents and other resources, linked by hyperlinks and URLs. The World Wide Web is one of the services accessible via the Internet, along with many others including e-mail, file sharing and others described below.” [ http://en.wikip...g/wiki/Internet ]
see also some astute remarks made by Prof. Winograd:
http://www.desi...s/TerryWinograd
@ #10: Startup coverage will never go away, but it will cycle with the market / hype / etc.
This is already showing in the valuation of GOOG.
http://www.meetingflex.com
We all know online advertising is growing, but how will this this money be spent. Is it more money pumped into the big players or will marketers get more selective with their audience and move to niche website/blog level? Probably a little of both. Hopefully some of us little guys can see some of those dollars (or euros).
Well guys, I must say that I am sure that we cant even imagine how big online advertising will be in 4 years, and for sure it will be more then the $42b emarketers forcasts.
It will be relevant and more integrated with the offline marketing.
I agree with John #21, that it is gonna be really interesting to see how this money will be spent.
My guess is that marketers need to be more selective and maybe you, me and other average joes will actually get payed to get exponated to ads. The marketers pay for our attention. (But do not remember that it still has to be relevant to the joes!)