October 31, 2007

Is It A Bird? Is It A Plane? No, It’s Google’s Share Price!

Duncan Riley

25 comments »

goog.jpgWow, maybe Henry Blodget wasn’t so wrong after all. Google broke through $700 a share in trading today, closing at a record high of $707, just over 3 weeks since breaking through the $600 mark.

Google did have the benefit of a surging NASDAQ; the exchange favored by tech stocks closing up 42.41 pts or 1.51% after the Fed cut US interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5%. A range of analysts including Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse and others have raised their target price for GOOG stock to $800 and above.

It’s not all clear sailing ahead for Google, though. The US Federal Reserve wouldn’t be cutting interest rates if it thought the US economy was healthy and the Federal Open Market Committee said that although financial market turmoil linked to a US housing downturn had eased in part, “the pace of economic expansion will likely slow in the near term, partly reflecting the intensification of the housing correction,” which if applied to Google would see its revenue growth slow.

International markets also present a problem for Google, with a decline that wasn’t widely reported when Google announced its 3rd Quarter earnings result October 18. According to Google’s statement, if it hadn’t been for currency movements international revenue would have dropped $121 million in the 3rd quarter (presuming that USD has remained at the same level). It might have been a blip but it’s certainly something to watch given most of Google’s growth opportunities should be coming from outside its home country, given the relative maturity of the US internet market.

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  1. Bob Caswell

    So has Google said anything officially about its ridiculously high price per share? Meaning, is a stock split in the works any time soon? Or is this bit of eccentric behavior some sort of spin off of not being evil?

  2. Jessica Mah

    This is absolutely crazy! Stock split soon, maybe?

    (( calls stockbroker to buy more Google ))

  3. Mr. Shikadance

    I think you have it backwards there when you said “Google did have the benefit of a surging NASDAQ”. The NASDAQ market has nothing to do with the price of GOOG. If anything, its the price of GOOG that dictates the NASDAQ composite.

    Also Bob Caswell, I don’t think they will ever split their stock. They are big fans of Warren Buffet and like BRK, it has never split its stock.

  4. Tan The Man

    I stupidly let my friends talk me out of buying Google when it was at $88… ARG!

  5. chrisco

    GOOG is the bellwether of the current tech rally…. as long as GOOG remains healthy, tech stocks should continue to outperform. The Chinese market in general, and it’s bellwethers in particular, are the other indicators to watch for the global apatite for risk. Just watch the US dollar. If it continue to tank, there will be “flight to quality,” as they say, which is what we had most recently in August. When that happens, dollar will rebound. Wash, rinse, repeat. Cheers, chrisco http://www.buzzpal.com

  6. Mitch

    Image resolution for google stock price is distractingly low.

    Mitch

  7. Duncan Riley

    Mr. Shikadance (#3)
    In part true, however the NYSE was up as well today…pretty much everything was up as a result of the rate cut so GOOG stock was part of a broader market increase.

    Mitch
    apologies, it’s much smaller at the source and to fit TC sizing guidelines in distorts a bit.

  8. David Mackey

    Thats crazy high. I wouldn’t buy now b/c sometime soon it has to go down.

  9. Guthri

    Yey, Duncan is back as the techcrunch economist, and that too without anything related to fb.

  10. Kelli

    Brin and Page won’t do a split because it would only attract investors only interested in quarterly estimates and if they don’t then they will attract intelligent investors who care more about long term investments.

  11. David Lynch

    I know I’m not the only one who see this, and says goh lee, why I didn’t I move everything in there, when the stock first opened. Way back when I thought, people are gonna need more stuff from Lucent, but somehow Lucent crashed. So I realize, looking for huge returns is a great way to lose huge. When orkut first came out, I said, man google is gonna explode. But even to this day, I still cannot fathom, how there ads can make so much. And rightly so, the competition for them is stiff, and could easily turn against them, with a few trickier better algorithms, ie maybe quintera. So google earns every penny of value they’ve created, and I’m happy for them, but since I still have trouble fathoming there revenue through ads, which is primarily ~80% only from their main search page, I don’t regret my decisions. I hope google and microsoft earth improve and make tons through ads, and neither do I want to ride google back down, as the ad space, and search seem vulnerable and very competitive to me. :D:D:P

  12. ColinPape.com

    I think it has as much to do with the falling dollar and international shareholders as anything else.

    Google will also continue to benefit from the flight to quality effect as industries and local economies are disrupted by the web (Google) and investors need somewhere safe to put their money.

  13. Steve Ballmer

    This is just plain dangerous! Gaggle will fall to $8.00 soon taking the fortunes of many with it!

    http://fakesteveballmer.blogspot.com

  14. Dawso

    I know. I invested in 500 Google stocks ($35,000). And made 32,000.

  15. Jon

    I can’t help to think that a huge bubble is being blown up by speculators in the marketplace.

    Jon

  16. EPS

    No matter what they are creating strong innovation still and have a top notch product.

  17. Daniel Gibbons

    @ Dawso. How did you manage to buy Google at $70 when it IPO’d at $85?

  18. johns

    Man, I just know that GOOG will be a great short in the not distant future. The question is when? [lol]

  19. Hammer

    Meanwhile in redmond…

    M$ still flat in their $30s like five years ago…

    When ballmer threw his first chair…

  20. AndrewisWise.com

    This is exactly the same hysteria that lead to the first bubble bursting.

    People seeing this huge $700 price per share, people looking at that original $88 strike price, and thinking …hell, I can pick the next Google.

    Then, as they throw money at Wiki-Thingamagig, VerbR, Worthle.ss they get mad when they don’t win, and decide to gamble some more, “spread the risk” and end up head over heels in this stupid game.

    These types of matters are best left for the VCs of the world, where hitting .300 gets them into the hall of fame.

    And you private equity guys, please do not flip worthless companies and then dump them onto the public with false-hope, thanks.

  21. MGZ

    The reason this isn’t a bubble is because Google actually makes money. Shitloads of it. With huge, fat margins. And they’ve been increasing this trend year after year, and so while the stock is a bit overvalued, it’s not insanely overvalued for their earnings.

    The only reason it would take a steep decline is if they started posting bad earnings, or the fear of bad earnings.

    MGZ

  22. California Condor

    @Bob Caswell (#1)

    Splitting a stock is an irrelevant exercise. It does nothing to change the company or the market capitalization of the company. It’s pointless. It Accomplishes nothing. So why would Google do it?

  23. Austin Storm

    @Cal Condor (#22)

    If there was no reason to split stock, why would it ever happen?

    “A split often drives the new price per share up, as more of the public is attracted by the lower price. A company might split when it feels its per-share price has risen beyond what an individual investor is willing to pay, particularly since they are usually bought and sold in 100’s. They may wish to attract individuals to stabilize the price, as institutional investors buy and sell more often than individuals.”

    Isn’t Google grand?

  24. Joseph Pally

    Google P/E is kind of ok for an internet startup, but not at the market value it has. Its stock is almost like Enron during 1999.

    However, there is no new innovation to justify the price. Pricing at the moment also do not factor-in competition on their tail. Search, Maps and Talk have already been matched by others, it is just a matter of time before the market stabilizes on this.

    Google needs to move and do something worth their price. Analysts can hype things up only for a few quarters.