If hype was the only indicator of marketshare in social networking, Facebook would be the winner by a mile, and yet for all the talk of Facebook’s greatness, MySpace remains the most popular social networking destination.
The social networking market so far has seen something that defies conventional economic thinking. Instead of users choosing one service or the other they often choose both. Until now.
New figures released by HitWise show that in Australia at least, MySpace is now losing market share as the Facebook juggernaut continues. Traffic to MySpace in Australia has dropped 5% as Facebook has tripled its traffic in the 10 weeks to October 13, according to the Sydney Morning Herald.
Some may suggest that the Facebook platform is providing a superior social networking offering that is driving a switch; this in part is valid however it ignores two other factors. First is the direction of MySpace: it’s hard to grow traffic when you’re already at the top, so traffic options are static or down. MySpace is adopting an open platform that will provide additional services for their members, but in the mean time not much new happening on MySpace; boredom with MySpace would naturally result in declining traffic. The second factor is the amazing word of mouth Facebook currently has. The platform is irrelevant when anyone and everyone is talking Facebook at the moment, and not just within tech circles. I’ve had old school friends I haven’t seen in 20 years ping me on Facebook, and a majority of my friends list would now consist of non-tech related friends. Facebook comes up in conversations all the time when I’m talking to people outside of the tech community: it has become the next YouTube in terms of popular awareness.
The switch stats are so far only applicable to Australia, but it wouldn’t be surprising if this is the start of a trend, particularly in English speaking countries. There is only so much the broader market can take in terms of multi-using social networking sites. As more people get onto Facebook it becomes more likely that people will use Facebook as their first, and perhaps only choice in online social networking.
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MySpace has made itself ridiculous through overexpansion and a lack of innovation. In contrast, Facebook understands its position in the market and is constantly improving its core offering. The switch began about a year ago. Facebook has been growing a hell of a lot faster (in reach) than MySpace for some time.
Without putting weight or favoritism on either, Facebook traffic can ONLY go up, and MySpace can only taper off and possibly loose some traffic. Facebook traffic going up is due to hype … and hype in this context is not a bad thing … because people are curious to try something new and MySpace tapering off, well … how long can you really grow at an astronomic rate? And loosing traffic … I think it is normal as people grow old of something they move on try something new and may or not come back. This WILL happen to Facebook or any other site. The question that we should really ask is: What is the revenue opportunity and profit benefit that each company has? And a follow on questions would be: What is the execution potential of either one?
Time will only tell.
ah, please. you guys have a 1-sided love affair with Facebook. I use myspace and facebook daily. i think facebook is completely overhyped. it is the fad of the moment. time will tell if it actually goes beyond the fad stage. in the meantime i hope some writers actually do their homework. if i just read articles like these i would have no idea of reality. the reality of the situation is that myspace gets 50 BILLION + more pageviews per month than myspace!!! (data is from comscore, btw). so there’s a much greater upside financially when you’re looking at revenue for a media model company. plus they announced some exclusive media deals and the free use of skype. those are pretty huge service offerings that well….dwarf facebook’s “application platform” that lets you send drinks, hugs and other stupid stuff to your friends.
checkout compete’s blog for more information on this -they have lots of good analysis. the so called facebook “application platform” is….well silly. Myspace will be following suit. As will google on their november 5th announcement. overtime (the next couple year) the fad aspect will decrease. LinkedIn is 100000x more useful for business folks anyway. facebook has LOTS of word of mouth momentum and people are joining just b/c their friends are…
I think that this shift has been happening for a long time now, and would have happened with or without FB Platform. If Facebook can really pull off an international expansion (which they’ve been putting off for some time now), I don’t see the growth slowing until they hit a billion users.
Dan
http://www.ackermangreenberg.com
THE WHOLE SOCIAL THING IS A FAD!
It will all collapse in a year or two!
http://fakesteveballmer.blogspot.com
facebook is only popular in Silicon valley
people on the east coast isn’t that into myspace..it’s just those on the west
Only if Fox NEWS reports it.
“They report you decide”
jay, duncan is simply reaffirming his love affair with facebook. facebook apps are mostly geared for high school girls, the ones that aren’t drown in all the nonsense/noise. i also agree, with u that linkedin is infinitely more useful/fitting for business, at least if you’re in a legitimate profession. promoting your business/services on facebook is akin to doing so at a bar, church, or even disney world.
I’ve had a Myspace and Facebook accnt for over 2yrs. How much time have i spent on each combined…less than 30mins.
This is all very true. I not only left MySpace last month - I deleted the whole thing. More and more people are getting fed up with the time suck that is MySpace and the early adopters of that group are slowly finding that Facebook enables them to do much the same but with a more upscale audience.
MySpace will ultimately go back to being about the bands and the parties (and the spammers) and Facebook will slowly move across various social groups and classes. To many MySpace users, Facebook is completely intimidating and boring and feels “conformist”.
“I don’t see the growth slowing until they hit a billion users.”
Whoa…the site will be lucky if they can eclipse 100 million much less 10x that. Too much competition in this space, myspace is making the right moves to prevent FB from taking over. FB is going to have a tough enough time fighting off becoming the latest fad.
jay: Duncan was referring to figures in Australia, and I have to agree with him and the SMH article. A year ago, all of my friends used MySpace. Every single one of them now uses Facebook almost exclusively. As soon as a few of your friends start using a different site, an avalanche starts and soon everyone is forced to move over to stay in touch. People now ask if I’m on Facebook, rather than my MySpace ID, when I’m out.
Facebook is to MySpace as a dry cabernet is to Red Bull.
While I agree that the Facebook platform will be revealed to be more sizzle than steak once the other guys can throw their platforms in the ring, the population shift there is quite real in my opinion. And it isn’t just Myspace either. Every social network around the globe worth its salt is talking about opening up…and how many users they are losing to Facebook. Fast forward 6 or 12 months and everyone will be open. Then the real competition will begin.
Those that have been using facebook for 2-3+ years know that the major utility behind facebook is communication, not entertainment (though entertainment/stalking/etc might take up the vast majority of page views). Entertainment “can” be a fad, but communication is a necessity. Facebook has done something that no technology did before; it connects you with past and present friends - and not in the homepage marketing-lingo sense, but in the real “how the hell else would I know what my high school friend does 10 years later” kind of way. Or the “what’s that person’s name I just met” kind of way. Imagine how many users hotmail would have today if it was the only way to do email. That’s what Facebook created. That’s powerful. As scary as it sounds, that truly is something can scale to a billion users as Dan mentions… ok, enough fanboy-ing for now… but it’s true
I love these articles. I’ll mark my calendar for two years in the future when Duncan publishes a new article titled: “Has the Facebook to [INSERT NEW SHINY SOCIAL NETWORK NAME] begun?”
I can’t wait…
Hi Duncan,
In India, a similar switch has begun from Orkut to Facebook. It is definitely becoming the more popular choice amongst Orkut users who have adopted Facebook.
The only reason the migration is not as fast as it could be is the ease of use of Orkut. Rather, I’d dub it as the slow learnability in case of Facebook.
Regards,
Nimish
Friendster - 4 years - I check it twice a week.
Myspace - 2 years - twice a month
Facebook - 0
Yes it has begun. People are now inviting me to join Facebook. But I’d still rather post in forums.
I would love to see a move from StudiVZ to Facebook here in Germany.
For those who are not familiar with StudiVZ: It started in October 2005 as a 1:1 copy of facebook. They only changed the color scheme from blue to red. Unfortunately, the development of the site has stalled, if they would just keep copying the features of FB, everything would be fine
The irony is that nobody here except some tech people and people who went abroad even knows FB. IMHO the language barrier will limit the growth of FB to English speaking countries or countries where the majority is very proficient in speaking English e.g. Scandinavian countries, unless FB translates the interface. And then they will have a hard time to make the users switch from the established social networks.
My 75 year old dad told me about this ‘new’ website called Facebook that he’s joined because all his friends are on it. He is a bit unique, in that he’s an academice, still sctive with his peers around the world, but my gosh this is absolutely crazy.
Facebook is Myspace for people with college degrees.
I had written off Myspace, but now I’m not so sure (don’t underestimate Robert Murdoch!)
“facebook is only popular in Silicon valley”
Eh? Since when? There is life outside Silicon Valley and the US. In fact, the article was about FB/MyS in Australia. I’m finding, anecdotally at least, most of my social and some of my professional contacts are primarily using FB. I only tend to hear “Do you have a MySpace page” in chat rooms now.
Got to agree with Andy.
I was at a BBQ Saturday night, complete non-tech crowd, and Facebook came up about 5 times, with people ranging from 13 through to 50. As the SMH says, MySpace is very 2006. Out in the burbs it’s all Facebook now, in a much bigger way than I ever found with MySpace.
Its easier to meet girls and shag them on myspace, thats why it will always be more popular.
MySpace has became a boring social networking site and its staff are allowing this by not being innovative and not adding common features that other social network sites offer.
You cannot even edit a bulletin!
Or set permissions specific by a friend for photos and bulletins… Screw Tom!
English speaking people are representing 86% of Facebookers (36,165,000 users for a total of 42,047,520 last saturday). See Facebook data @ http://adscriptum.blogspot.com.....phics.html
Jean-Marie
I am more comfortable with facebook than myspace, probably because my friends are on it. Also, the various add-on softwares that are on Facebook is definitely a great feature. It makes me want to visit it again and again just to see what my friends are doing on it.
This may not be cool by everyone’s definition, but would you believe that we have 3 generations on Facebook…I was first- a 45 year old female executive, who introduced my 13 year old daughter at boarding school to Facebook, and last Saturday, my 76 year old mum in Cape Town signed herself up without any help.
She created a profile, posted her own photo, worked out the networks thing, how to add a friend and how to distinguish between the wall and the e-mail messaging function. This after receiving a ping from me advising I have uploaded some photos on my FB. My mum acquired her first PC at age 65!
The point is…Facebook is simple, intuitive and well-designed….the interface is not bewildering and the look and feel consistent. The other greatest advantage is privacy settings in FB…and also, did you know you CANNOT delete an account once created, in My Space? try…I dare you.
This is blogspam sponsored by facebook I should say.
In two weeks everybody will switch to google social and facebook will jump the shark.
MySpace is social networking site for those that have a lot of time to give.
We stopped pushing bands that appeal to an older demographic (22+) on MySpace because it’s a place for kids and peeping men.
You have to be able to put up with slow-loading pages, frequent errors, ridiculous amounts of spam, irrelevant banner ads, annoying bands with automated friending software and music players that barely work to enjoy music on MySpace.
The only demographic that can deal with that hasn’t even grown body hair yet.
Our message to artists - stop wasting your time on MySpace. Use MySpace to drive traffic to your own website, and learn how to use your website as an income source.
FaceBook is the future because we are buying 10% of it!
http://fakesteveballmer.blogspot.com
Its for sure that their is an uprising in facebook users, but is it really people leaving my space and joining facebook or is it new users more joining face book. I belive we have to wait at least two more months before we confirm this trend. But facebook is an fast pace track. Check it out.
http://blogkatt.blogspot.com
Facebook may go down in history as the biggest lost oppurtunity for its founders….if they do not sell off within the next 7 days..
http://www.meetingflex.com
Custom Social Networks
The other interesting point is the disparity between “overlap users”. Most of the people I know on myspace have little against Facebook and are likely to be on both. However the converse is not true. Many Facebook users will simply NOT go on myspace (myself included). I don’t need to go into the reasons, since most of them have already been addressed in the comments above.
I have a facebook and myspace site. Every now and then a friend contacts me on facebook and i check it out. But other than that, it’s not much use. I predict that unless facebook adds some real utility people will lose interest. It’s fun reconnecting with old friends for a bit, but then what?
I think that’s the dilemma for all social networks, beyond figuring out how to make money. How do you prevent your users from getting bored and moving on?
Facebook is very popular among a lot of my friends in south China. And it’s growing rapidly in Hong Kong. They should launch a Chinese simplified character version quickly.
I left myspace when they started being a SUPER big brother and killing all my advertising / url / widgets / accounts and trying to control too much crap!
Ive found that using Australia as any sort of proof of momentum for online traffic is faulty. Australia’s no indicator for online patterns. India, however, seems to be a better showing of movement. Not sure how that equates to social networking, but its just what we determined at my company
I think the main reason for the switch has to do with advertising.
On MySpace, they’re everywhere. People are getting annoyed with it all.
On Facebook, they are less intrusive. Not to mention MySpace is based mainly on entertainment (like “LA” said) while facebook for communication.
Plus Facebook has less spam than MySpace, if any at all.
Austrailia??? Duncan you hack. That is like 1% maybe 2% of the internet population. The comments are right. have you even heard of objective journalism?
MySpace is great if you’re:
– 12-20 years old
– Love HTML 1.0
– Spend 80 percent of your life hoping to find the next cool new band before your bros
–
there’s also a great switch from friendster users of ASEAN countries like Malaysia and Singapore in particular to facebook right now.
My 15 year old daughter and her entire social circle completed the switch from myspace to facebook in early summer. I just assumed it had happend already. She said it was the extension apps that made it a no brainer.
Seems to me Myspace is for kids. By kids I mean the under 20 crowd. The ad is dropping however. No one over say 30 would be caught dead on myspace!
Facebook will eventually outgrow Myspace IF they continue at the growth rate, might take them a couple of years to do that. However, there are more important things to look at other than page views, things like:
1- Member loyalty.
2- Time spent on site.
3- Number of returning/active members.
In all of these, Facebook numbers are way better than Myspace, those are very important things to look at if your an investor/advertiser, which in my opinion played a big role in the buzz that Facebook is getting.
“For those who are not familiar with StudiVZ: It started in October 2005 as a 1:1 copy of facebook. They only changed the color scheme from blue to red.”
For those who are not familiar with phpAdsNew: It started years ago with Facebook completely ripping off the UI. Only they changed the color scheme from one shade of blue to a slightly different shade of blue.
Myspace will be around forever. Pretty much everyone has one.
Facebook is a site that I’ve just become familar with in the past few months, a lot of my friends have never even heard of it so I doubt that it could ever catch up to myspace’s popularity.
Myspace is for kids who like to act gross and nasty. Typically pathetic men like to surf around myspace trying to have a meaning in life.