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October 11, 2007

There’s More To The FaceBook Traffic Story

Michael Arrington

81 comments »

Om Malik says Facebook traffic is tanking, based on the September Comscore data which shows a 9.3% decline in uniques v. steady uniques at MySpace.

There’s a problem though - he’s showing unique visitor data but talking about traffic. The Comscore data for U.S. traffic shows only a 4% decline, from 15.2 billion to 14.7 billion page views. MySpace declined 2% in that same period.

And the data is also only taking U.S. traffic into account. Over the last year, non U.S. users have grown to become more than half of Facebook’s total audience. Comscore worldwide data runs a month behind U.S. data, so that information is not yet available for September.

But the bottom line is, there isn’t enough information yet to make any kind of definitive statement about Facebook traffic. It’s also worth noting that something very similar may have happened last year (a September dip in traffic) At the very least we need to wait for the international data.

Data is below - unique visitors is top, below is page views.

  • Sphere It

This entry was posted on Thursday, October 11th, 2007 at 1:56 pm and is filed under Company & Product Profiles. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

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  1. Deep Jive Interests

    October 11th, 2007 at 4:09 pm

  2. Facebook Dip Seasonal « GigaOM

    October 11th, 2007 at 4:58 pm

  3. Is Beacon Inflating Facebook’s Visitor Numbers? teasered @ Feed UP !!

    December 9th, 2007 at 12:33 am

  4. Facebook Traffic Is Not About to Plummet — Facebook Observer

    December 31st, 2007 at 1:07 am

Comments

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  1. George P.

    October 11th, 2007 at 2:01 pm

    It’s most likely dropped cause of back to school…

  2. Michael Arrington

    October 11th, 2007 at 2:02 pm

    George - that may be the dumbest comment ever left on techcrunch.

  3. Permeate

    October 11th, 2007 at 2:05 pm

    Haha, I’ve seen much worse Michael.

    Anyway, this data should definitely raise some eyebrows, but comscore has been known to report some inconsistent data from time to time. I wouldn’t be surprised if this were just a blip like you said.

  4. Someone

    October 11th, 2007 at 2:06 pm

    Actually, Michael, although it’s counter-intuitive, there was a similar drop last year during back to school. People get excited planning before school starts, but once you get there there’s less downtime, meaning less time on the computer and more time, you know, actually seeing your friends in person, going to class, etc.

  5. Someone

    October 11th, 2007 at 2:07 pm

    data from last year: http://www.marketingpilgrim.co.....ja-vu.html

  6. Mike

    October 11th, 2007 at 2:10 pm

    Is TechCrunch the Facebook Chronicles or what??? Michael, I’m sure out of the 1000’s of technology companies TechCrunch can provide us readers newsworthy stories besides Facebook!

  7. techcrunchreader

    October 11th, 2007 at 2:12 pm

    I think is too early to come to conclusioin that FB traffic is on the decline. If you look at the data (total unique) from Jan 07 to Feb 07, there was a derease of traffic also.

  8. ZiZi

    October 11th, 2007 at 2:13 pm

    yeah, this facebook stuff is getting real old.

  9. Faramarz

    October 11th, 2007 at 2:13 pm

    Mike, it is newsworthy. Facebook in a lot of ways is a marketplace ecosystem all by itself. Their direction is shared through out the industry

  10. Faramarz

    October 11th, 2007 at 2:17 pm

    here’s a ludicrous observation as for the decline. What is the gender divide amongst the demographics? If nearly half of the group is female, expect the PMC cycle to coincide with a blip in the traffic. :P

  11. Mike

    October 11th, 2007 at 2:18 pm

    @Faramarz - I perfectly understand that. I was a devoted TechCrunch reader because they had the heartbeat of the Technology industry and now TechCrunch has became Facebook’s PR company. I would love to get the inside information on the Technology industry again and not just Facebook!

  12. David

    October 11th, 2007 at 2:19 pm

    Jeez….There is much more important things to discuss than something this minor. TechCrunch must have some kind of financial interest in Facebook because there is no other explination for TC kissing Facebook’s butt so much!!!

  13. raj

    October 11th, 2007 at 2:21 pm

    unquestionably back-to-school. these kids are busy with their homework!

    rapid adoption masks the true seasonality of a site. (this happened at ebay, for instance). when the growth starts to level off, voila, it looks like a normal media property or marketplace that has ups and downs.

    but then if you’re looking at facebook as the second coming of the internet, then you’re bound to be disappointed….

  14. BRadC

    October 11th, 2007 at 2:24 pm

    Arrington:

    1) Treat your readers with a bit of respect. How is that comment dumb? Qualify possibly the dumbest response to a comment ever from a Techcrunch writer, with something more than snarky tone at your very lifeblood. Infantile egotist.

    2) Stop with dull FB updates on slow news days. I’d rather have nothing at all than the mindless gossip laden witterings and reactionary conjecture that is rapidly decending into the bstrd child of Perez Hilton and a tech industry blog. It’s absurd and rather base.

  15. Dave G

    October 11th, 2007 at 2:25 pm

    Wow…

    Is Arrington actually Mark Zuckerberg’s mom? He sure does act like it.

  16. Don Wilson

    October 11th, 2007 at 2:30 pm

    Nice job including Orkut into that mix, really shows their footing in the market.

  17. Thinker

    October 11th, 2007 at 2:32 pm

    Hey Mike,

    Actually Om malik talks about both traffic and unique vistors.
    The actual text from gigaom -
    ” just got the spread sheet and there seems to be a 9.3% decline in their unique visitorsfrom 33.75 million in August 2007 to 30.6 million in September 2007. Even their page views are down 3.8% from August 2007″

    I just thought of correcting as your post sounds like it’s trying to ridicule Om malik’s blog.

    I always go to techcrunch but still let’s just keep the competition healthy.

    Peace
    D

  18. Tc fan

    October 11th, 2007 at 2:32 pm

    Mike,

    I read your post with that link to Paul Graham’s essay on the future of startups and how tech startups are becoming a commodity.The real question is what are we going to do when there are hundreds of facebook sites and thouands of TechCrunch type blogs etc.when people are faced with that many choices they tend to do nothing at all?

  19. A-man

    October 11th, 2007 at 2:35 pm

    Thank you BRadC!

  20. Jokes

    October 11th, 2007 at 2:35 pm

    It amazes me you base anything on Comscore. For such a web2.0 guy you measure things on a system like that?

    Of course it shows traffic tanking; their panel doesn’t measure well on college campuses or track those users which is FaceBooks core.

    Find me an accuracy with Comscore and you have some real news.

  21. Amy Wilsch

    October 11th, 2007 at 2:35 pm

    Faramarz, assuming you meant PMS, THAT seriously is the dumbest comment ever left on here [even if your smiley face tries to bolster your attempt at sarcasm/humour]

  22. The Business of Software

    October 11th, 2007 at 2:48 pm

    Hmmm… the september effect.

  23. Deals and Coupons

    October 11th, 2007 at 2:50 pm

    I want to see MA and OM fight this out! :)

  24. naysayer

    October 11th, 2007 at 2:52 pm

    Instead of another facebook story, could you get some timely interviews with valley movers and shakers about any topic other than Facebook. Just a thought….

    Something must be happening in the valley other than facebook….

  25. phenom

    October 11th, 2007 at 2:58 pm

    I think Comscore has a major bug just like the feed burner bug which showed an increase of TC feed subscriber by more than 30% in a day.

    http://vidsonly.blogspot.com

  26. RustyS

    October 11th, 2007 at 3:00 pm

    I’m sure Compete, Hitwise and Quantcast (all are active in the blogosphere) will no doubt be rushing their versions of the story up ASAP while this story is still hot.

    I don’t trust the numbers from any service individually. You need an aggregate sample to get the best picture.

    That being said, I’m just about in favor of any trend that minimizes the Facebook talk at this point. Ironically, even a Facebook decline doesn’t really do that.

  27. DaveB

    October 11th, 2007 at 3:02 pm

    Could it be the rise of Vassilly at Facebook?!

  28. Dan Ackerman Greenberg

    October 11th, 2007 at 3:04 pm

    Mike,

    Keep posting about Facebook - it’s interesting and important. We have to realize that people are starting to use the internet differently, and FB is leading the charge.

    A question, though - when MySpace platform launches, are you going to be as hot on MySpace news? I hope so, because I think it’s just as important.

    Dan Ackerman Greenberg
    Head Course Assistant, Stanford Facebook Class
    http://www.ackermangreenberg.com

    PS - Our students are building some sweet FB apps that will put the life back into Facebook.

  29. Mike

    October 11th, 2007 at 3:14 pm

    @Dan - Of course you want to hype Facebook considering that you’re teaching a course on FB Apps - more PR for you and your course. Are you getting equity in from your student apps or what?

    Tell us readers about the up & coming startup company that’s…. Please, anything besides the Facebook Chronicles. I might as well read ValleyWag.com - atleast I’ll hear juicy technology gossip!

    Mike Davis

  30. Dan Ackerman Greenberg

    October 11th, 2007 at 3:18 pm

    Of course we’re not getting equity in our students’ apps!

    Dan Ackerman Greenberg
    Head Course Assistant, Stanford Facebook Class
    http://www.ackermangreenberg.com

  31. Kelli

    October 11th, 2007 at 3:27 pm

    MA: dumber than any of the Fake Steve Ballmer posts? I highly doubt it.

  32. Vassilly

    October 11th, 2007 at 3:30 pm

    Nope. Still poking around Nola, thanks.

  33. former NC beauty queen

    October 11th, 2007 at 3:31 pm

    I have a website that is directed at mostly college age kids and my traffic always spikes in September so I’m not sure I believe these stats.

    @BRadC - I am constantly amazed by all the rude and angry comments I read on TechCrunch. There seem to be a lot of frustrated entrepreneurs/wannabes out there (who clearly aren’t getting nearly as much sex as Duncan.) Normally the TechCrunch staff is very professional and doesn’t lower themselves into the muck so give Arrington a break for what was obviously said partially in humor.

  34. BRadC

    October 11th, 2007 at 3:31 pm

    @Dan

    of course you want more FB stories, you have a vested interest as to remind us at every available opportunity.

    Seriously, this is becoming almost farcical. An inane stream of pseudo-stories getting increasingly more desperate to develop some sort of angle. What the devil is going on? I can’t help but wonder what Arrington’s angle is!

    There’s More To The FaceBook Traffic Story
    Facebook Debate: Valuation, Value To Developers and Random Ad Hominem Attacks
    Facebook Vs ConnectU: “Facebook Makes Untrue Assertions”
    Facebook to Granted Visiting Rights to Her Kid. Shaves Head

    on and on ad infinitum…

    Tell us something interesting instead of this banal white noise, it’s blocking out any signal

  35. Eueugenue

    October 11th, 2007 at 3:32 pm

    Comrades - it is no Vassilly. It is eye, Eueugenue….

  36. BRadC

    October 11th, 2007 at 3:34 pm

    @former NC beauty queen

    Rude & angry? Must’ve come across wrong, I was aiming for indignant and mildly peeved.

  37. The Other Fake Dave McClure

    October 11th, 2007 at 3:37 pm

    Actually, I am Mark Zuckerberg’s mom, thank you very much.

  38. phoneguy

    October 11th, 2007 at 3:41 pm

    what is this thing people refer to. this face-book thing. i typed face-book.com and nothing happened.
    regards

  39. Voices

    October 11th, 2007 at 4:03 pm

    Thanks for pointing to the historical trend and how Facebook bounced back. This provides context and minimizes the alarm bells that Facebook’s traffic is declining. Well through-out.

  40. Michael Bailey

    October 11th, 2007 at 4:10 pm

    Welcome to TechCrunch.com - all Facebook, all the time!

    hehe, there’s probably a good reason that GoDaddy just show me that FUCKFACEBOOK.COM is already taken.

    Personally, I don’t care either way - I’m just waiting for the next shiny object to come drifting by, so the speculation and finger pointing can start all over again.

  41. Steve Ballmer

    October 11th, 2007 at 4:14 pm

    FadBook is headed to extinction fast!

    http://fakesteveballmer.blogspot.com

  42. Raghu Kulkarni

    October 11th, 2007 at 4:18 pm

    TC is not doing PR for facebook intentionally. Facebook is like Paris Hilton of entertainment or iphone of gadgets. Every one wants to know every little bit about the ‘in thing’ in this information age, and facebook is the ‘in thing’ on the web today. So, any writeup on facebook, however insignificant it is will attract readership.

  43. Duncan Riley

    October 11th, 2007 at 4:20 pm

    Alexa stats show only 28.8% of Facebook’s traffic comes from the US…ok, you dont like Alexa etc etc but of all of the measuring tools it has the best international tracking reach by a long way. Alexa shows Facebook growing in September.

  44. George P.

    October 11th, 2007 at 4:23 pm

    Wow, thanks for that Michael. May I say you may be dumbest to ever write on Techcrunch. Whats the average age group of the people on Facebook? I would say at least half are under 25. What are the majority of these people doing during the summer? Sitting at home. What are they doing in September? Back to school. It’s not that far fetched.

  45. Darren Stuart

    October 11th, 2007 at 4:25 pm

    I don’t see the problem with this post. I do think the first comment was valid and felt it didn’t warrant that response.

    Facebook has replaced Digg in hype and you can’t blame a startup news blog for reporting whats hot.

    I do have to agree with the general feeling here and that is lets have more startup focused news and maybe create a new blog for web tech news thats not startup related. You have the writing talent and man power to create another new tech news brand.

  46. Michael Bailey

    October 11th, 2007 at 4:28 pm

    George - are you talking about me?

    If so, well thanks for being so quick to label me - I appreciate your shallowness.
    You probably have 5 FB accounts, don’t ya?

    (Poke)

    Oh, and if it wasn’t to me, then let me by you a drink.

  47. George P.

    October 11th, 2007 at 4:30 pm

    Mike — I wasn’t talking to you — see the first and second comment — I was talking about Michael A. and the disrespect he shows his readers.

  48. Michael Bailey

    October 11th, 2007 at 4:32 pm

    yeah well, it’s too late to edit my comment - I do see now that you were the first to comment here George, and yeah, you are probably correct -

    Actually, this time of year, until around March will not be a very good time to launch anything online as people do get busy with real life events.

    So, I’ll buy ya two drinks now.

  49. nymane

    October 11th, 2007 at 4:35 pm

    facefunk!

  50. Tips from the Farm

    October 11th, 2007 at 4:37 pm

    Hey,

    Dan Ackerman Greenberg
    Head Course Assistant, Stanford Facebook Class
    http://www.ackermangreenberg.com

    PLEASE stop posting with that annoying sig.

    It’s almost like, an ad, you know? But for you. Boo. That’s the old way.

    I’m happy you’re excited about your class, and hope the Stanford students will rock better apps than fluff friends, super wall, glitter box, etc. It shouldn’t be too hard. I hope they’re successful, too.

    So post all you want, of course, but knock off the “I’m Part of Stanford :)” associated branding and street hustle. That’s not how alums roll. And back in the day, students had more class.

    Tone it down, and you’ll be more successful.

    -Your Friendly Class of ‘93 Virtual Advisor

    P.S. On 9/25 you said you would set up the course blog. Two weeks later, it’s still empty,and you’re still the TA? Get that DONE, yo. You laggin.

  51. FurdKiller

    October 11th, 2007 at 4:50 pm

    Interesting that facebook is seeing a dip with their F8 platform while fubar isn’t with their FU platform: http://www.fubar.com/fubar_cou.....th_fu.html

  52. Paul Sutter

    October 11th, 2007 at 4:57 pm

    Comscore’s measurement panel is mostly consumers at home.

    In August, the students are all at home with their parents. Some of those homes are Comscore’s panel.

    In September, students go back to school and disappear from the panel. The panel estimate shows a decline in traffic. Most likely, Facebook’s traffic actually increased.

    This is the problem with panel measurement. This same effect will show in the panel measurements from Comscore, Netratings, Compete, and even Quantcast.

    Direct measurement is really the only way to get an accurate read of web site traffic.

  53. angela penny

    October 11th, 2007 at 5:00 pm

    Om actually said in his story that he was surprised because he thought back to school would make pageviews increase. But I agree with your article, it’s not worth getting hot and bothered over.

  54. Ryan

    October 11th, 2007 at 5:28 pm

    @George P.
    There’s never been any guise of pure professionalism on this site, so insulting its userbase shouldn’t be that shocking.

    The first thing I do whenever I read a TC story now is note the author first and set my expectations accordingly. An Arrington story isn’t in the same class as a Schonfield. With all due respect to Arrington and his first-mover advantage, I’d be happier seeing him and some other writers take a more contributing editor role.

  55. jason

    October 11th, 2007 at 5:35 pm

    Thought it interesting that on Richard’s myspace page, http://profile.myspace.com/ind.....d=49248600

    There’s an embedded Pet Shop Boys video. Wonder how much income that’s cost them(unfortunately probably not much but still ironic)

  56. i don't need an ipodom!

    October 11th, 2007 at 5:47 pm

    Even the traffic is not declining but flat, that is fatal for FB. FB is eyeing IPO, without double digit growth, it will be doomed. I used to be a loyal FB user. Since FB opened up the platform, I received more and more junk invitations and other annoying messages. My FB homepage becomes more like a circus. I’m sure I’m not the only one who has the feeling. If FB fails to cash in the FB app spike and wait until the hype cools down and former loyal users leave, the FB bubble could burst at anytime.

  57. Dan

    October 11th, 2007 at 5:58 pm

    Kids are heading back to school, moving in, and finding dates for homecoming (at bars - not on facebook). The traffic will come back. FB will rule the world and with their new development platform, Msft and Google should have great concern.

  58. Cindy Artley

    October 11th, 2007 at 6:00 pm

    Guys, FB deserves the coverage. I have no problem with it provided TC covers al the other good stuff which it does well. I for one love the banter better than the copy, some of it is lol stuff and I hope we all keep it up!

    I believe it is totally a seasonal bump. Macro growth like FB has had doesn’t just switch off unless we’re facing global tailspin…

  59. Whit

    October 11th, 2007 at 6:10 pm

    The FB bubble is bursting as we type.

    For all the tech speak on the “Social Graph”, one should not forget that the site is basically at the whim of 18-22 yr old college students.

    It is a fad if I have ever seen one.

  60. Dan Ackerman Greenberg

    October 11th, 2007 at 6:17 pm

    @50, thanks for the advice. Send me an email - danielag@stanford.edu

  61. Dan

    October 11th, 2007 at 6:46 pm

    I’m not sure on America, (that data is just America right?) but in the UK students go back to university in September and are busy settling back in, visiting friends going to freshers fairs etc. One of the contributing reasons Facebook traffic has been so high in the last months is because people are connecting with friend at University over the holidays, we may see a slowdown in the amount of users joining Facebook because people are busy doing real social stuff.
    Personally I have seen less usage of Facebook since September from friends at university. However saying that I have seen a rise in the amount of organizations/entities setting up shop there, I think more and more professionals are using it to network.

  62. Jon

    October 11th, 2007 at 7:18 pm

    What can I conclude from this article? NOTHING! You state very aptly that

    “But the bottom line is, there isn’t enough information yet to make any kind of definitive statement about Facebook traffic.”

    So what was the point of writing an article if your facts are out of date and using third party traffic systems is a shot in the dark at best. I would say these numbers are maybe +- 20% or so which means there is nothing behind anything in these numbers unless you are dealing with their own server logs.

    I really hope TechCrunch doesn’t become the next CNN of the internet… breaking news… we don’t know what has happened or what to make of it but hey, something happened and we hope that you stay tuned until we figure it out!

    Hopefully this is just a “blip” on an otherwise very worthy industry feed.

    Jon

  63. techmine

    October 11th, 2007 at 7:48 pm

    Facebookrunch is the upcoming blog from our favorite crunch network. :)
    You just cannot separate facebook and techcrunch from each other….
    Just kidding Mike. I know you are furious about the lawsuit threat!!

  64. disq

    October 11th, 2007 at 7:59 pm

    School is back in session. Less Facebook and more real books, which is what we need. But it doesn’t make anyone money, too bad. Books are better for the mind.

  65. Joseph Hunkins

    October 11th, 2007 at 9:16 pm

    Dumb or not, I’m with George. More learnin’ = less surfin’. However I’d like Comscore to do more to test their methodology against actual server logs and help explain what appear to be discrepancies. These reports often raise as many questions as they answer.

  66. StupidLawyerTricks2

    October 11th, 2007 at 10:16 pm

    Facebook, more like Wastebook. Just stupid web crap.

  67. mozartfan

    October 11th, 2007 at 10:43 pm

    hmmmm

  68. Tyler Wright

    October 12th, 2007 at 12:42 am

    I’m bored with FB, and I have spent an hour a day on it for 6 months. It will die like MySpace.

    What’s coming after social networks??

  69. Clement

    October 12th, 2007 at 1:18 am

    BRadC

    You raise a great point here:

    ———————————————
    Arrington:

    1) Treat your readers with a bit of respect. How is that comment dumb? Qualify possibly the dumbest response to a comment ever from a Techcrunch writer, with something more than snarky tone at your very lifeblood. Infantile egotist.
    ———————————————

    Someone said your blog reader is king!

  70. alien

    October 12th, 2007 at 1:40 am

    C’mon.. he’s doing it to get a rise out of everyone

  71. Bill

    October 12th, 2007 at 3:24 am

    Not as dumb as the Madonna/$120M non-record deal.

  72. SHERVIN

    October 12th, 2007 at 4:07 am

    In our space there is always a dip in September. Holidays always have an impact on uniques and pageviews. This year most people took off 3-4 days in September for Labor day (August 31st-September 3rd). That is 10% of September days that are impacted and makes September almost like February from a traffic pattern perspective.

    I bifurcate the holidays between “outdoors” vs “indoors” holidays. Labor day is an “outdoors” classification. Outdoors holidays always have a negative impact. Some indoors holidays have a positive impact.

    One time our sign-ups dipped on Halloween. We were panicking until I realized everyone in the US was outside trick or treating in the evening.

    In other words, everyone chill out. Facebook is not going anywhere.

    Cheers,

    Shervin
    Pagii.com

  73. Brooke

    October 12th, 2007 at 9:38 am

    Facebook page views is definitely a victim of user-friendly coding. The last time I checked, MySpace had no Ajax scripting and relied on page redirects and refreshes to get anything done on their site. Facebook is more streamlined and user-friendly with its Ajax, hence the smaller page counts.

    IMO, the unique users stat is skewed in MySpace’s favour because it is a marketing vehicle for many bands, movies, actors, and such. Facebook, for the most part, is made up of regular people who want to use the service to keep in touch with friends, not whore out products or services.

    You definitely can’t use the above Comscore data to make any doom and gloom predictions about Facebook OR MySpace…

  74. Gryf

    October 12th, 2007 at 3:36 pm

    @73 “…not whore out products or services”

    you mean, like “apps”?

  75. BRadCFan

    October 13th, 2007 at 12:03 am

    BRadC you rock, man. keep it up. well written, and truthful.

    Arrington is a pompous ass and I for one am sick of hearing about it.

    FB is the PR version of the ouroboros.

    Arrington sux.

  76. Marc

    October 14th, 2007 at 3:41 am

    I don’t see a comparable dip last year? Show me a dip from last year.

    Just like Om, comparing apples and oranges.

    Yeah, that’s what I thought.

  77. Jon

    October 15th, 2007 at 2:50 pm

    Paul Sutter #52 nailed it. I work at another college-targeted site (CollegeHumor.com) and we show actual traffic growth by 8% in September, but comScore and Nielsen Netview show a decline versus August. Why? Because not only do they record households, but everyone in their panel must have a landline. Students living on campus who move annually rarely own a landline; they all just have mobile phones.

    That these panels show a decline in September has nothing to do with students being more or less busy or more or less online, and has everything to do with the severe limitations of these panels.

    Michael A., I don’t know why you flamed George P., but he was dead on accurate.

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