Comments on: Google To $2000/Share? Somebody Muzzle Blodget http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/ Startup and Technology News Fri, 27 Nov 2009 11:01:48 -0800 hourly 1 By: YimPlex::Make Money » Blog Archive » Values And Egos Inflate: The Bubble Returns http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/comment-page-2/#comment-2895809 YimPlex::Make Money » Blog Archive » Values And Egos Inflate: The Bubble Returns Sun, 02 Aug 2009 09:12:48 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/#comment-2895809 [...] This number, even as we remember the flack analyst Jim Cramer got flack for suggesting GOOG might reach $800, earned no shortage of scorn (and attention); TechCrunch’s Michael Arrington called for Blodget to be “muzzled.” [...] [...] This number, even as we remember the flack analyst Jim Cramer got flack for suggesting GOOG might reach $800, earned no shortage of scorn (and attention); TechCrunch’s Michael Arrington called for Blodget to be “muzzled.” [...]

]]> By: ONLINE SERVICES/INTERACTIVE MEDIA « Daily Marauder http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/comment-page-2/#comment-2533604 ONLINE SERVICES/INTERACTIVE MEDIA « Daily Marauder Fri, 14 Nov 2008 00:04:49 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/#comment-2533604 [...] still over $500. Former analyst Henry Blodget, however, thinks it could fall to $200 (I prefer the bullish version of Blodget myself). [...] [...] still over $500. Former analyst Henry Blodget, however, thinks it could fall to $200 (I prefer the bullish version of Blodget myself). [...]

]]> By: Google Analyst: “Worst Economic Environment In Our Collective Lifetimes” http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/comment-page-2/#comment-2532778 Google Analyst: “Worst Economic Environment In Our Collective Lifetimes” Thu, 13 Nov 2008 09:34:51 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/#comment-2532778 [...] still over $500. Former analyst Henry Blodget, however, thinks it could fall to $200 (I prefer the bullish version of Blodget [...] [...] still over $500. Former analyst Henry Blodget, however, thinks it could fall to $200 (I prefer the bullish version of Blodget [...]

]]> By: Allan http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/comment-page-2/#comment-2497699 Allan Fri, 10 Oct 2008 18:17:45 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/#comment-2497699 Arrington - You hit the nail on the head on linear models being unable to predict sudden changes in the business model or macroeconomic events that have a huge impact. "Anything could derail Google’s current growth rates - a credit crunch, a housing collapse or a recession could all have a big impact on consumer spending and the advertising market, and impact Google massively." Are you sure you're in the right business of being a media mogul and journalist? Shouldn't you be managing money and betting against analysts like Blodget? ;-) Arrington – You hit the nail on the head on linear models being unable to predict sudden changes in the business model or macroeconomic events that have a huge impact.

“Anything could derail Google’s current growth rates – a credit crunch, a housing collapse or a recession could all have a big impact on consumer spending and the advertising market, and impact Google massively.”

Are you sure you’re in the right business of being a media mogul and journalist? Shouldn’t you be managing money and betting against analysts like Blodget? ;-)

]]> By: Google’s market cap may drop below $100 billion — like tomorrow » VentureBeat http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/comment-page-2/#comment-2494181 Google’s market cap may drop below $100 billion — like tomorrow » VentureBeat Tue, 07 Oct 2008 20:53:25 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/#comment-2494181 [...] $2,000-a-share. (Though, to be fair, Silicon Alley Insider’s Henry Blodget didn’t say exactly when he thought it would hit $2,000-a-share.) People aren’t saying that [...] [...] $2,000-a-share. (Though, to be fair, Silicon Alley Insider’s Henry Blodget didn’t say exactly when he thought it would hit $2,000-a-share.) People aren’t saying that [...]

]]> By: Henry blodget « Demented Fundas http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/comment-page-2/#comment-2034471 Henry blodget « Demented Fundas Wed, 12 Mar 2008 18:43:50 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/#comment-2034471 [...] Google To $2000/Share? Somebody Muzzle BlodgetHenry Blodget made his name by predicting outlandish price increases for … I interacted with many Wall Street Internet analysts, including Henry Blodget. … [...] [...] Google To $2000/Share? Somebody Muzzle BlodgetHenry Blodget made his name by predicting outlandish price increases for … I interacted with many Wall Street Internet analysts, including Henry Blodget. … [...]

]]> By: Is It A Bird? Is It A Plane? No, It’s Google’s Share Price! http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/comment-page-2/#comment-1716419 Is It A Bird? Is It A Plane? No, It’s Google’s Share Price! Thu, 01 Nov 2007 01:00:49 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/#comment-1716419 [...] maybe Henry Blodget wasn’t so wrong after all. Google broke through $700 a share in trading today, closing at a record high of $707, [...] [...] maybe Henry Blodget wasn’t so wrong after all. Google broke through $700 a share in trading today, closing at a record high of $707, [...]

]]> By: Brad http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/comment-page-2/#comment-1659166 Brad Thu, 04 Oct 2007 23:36:58 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/#comment-1659166 Every idiot has a right to be parted from his money. If ramblings of other idiots contribute to that, it is just the way of things. Every idiot has a right to be parted from his money. If ramblings of other idiots contribute to that, it is just the way of things.

]]> By: Contnet Writer http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/comment-page-2/#comment-1658046 Contnet Writer Thu, 04 Oct 2007 07:23:59 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/#comment-1658046 I think there is no reason why Blodget should be criticized for his views. There are many chances that the Google can Reach that point . I think there is no reason why Blodget should be criticized for his views. There are many chances that the Google can Reach that point .

]]> By: Apogee Weblog | GOOG $2000 Target by Henry Blodget http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/comment-page-2/#comment-1657566 Apogee Weblog | GOOG $2000 Target by Henry Blodget Wed, 03 Oct 2007 23:16:30 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/#comment-1657566 <strong>GOOG $2000 Target by Henry Blodget...</strong> The GOOG IPO price was $85, so $850 would make it a ten bagger. A GOOG price of $2000 would be a 24 bagger. Is that so unreasonable? Of course, this depends on the timeframe. AOL (now TWX) was close to a 100 bagger from 1995-2000...... GOOG $2000 Target by Henry Blodget…

The GOOG IPO price was $85, so $850 would make it a ten bagger. A GOOG price of $2000 would be a 24 bagger. Is that so unreasonable? Of course, this depends on the timeframe. AOL (now TWX) was close to a 100 bagger from 1995-2000……

]]> By: Sufiy http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/comment-page-2/#comment-1657372 Sufiy Wed, 03 Oct 2007 20:36:45 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/#comment-1657372 Google is WEB bubble 2.0 in its prime, is it really different this time? http://sufiy.blogspot.com/search?q=Google Google is WEB bubble 2.0 in its prime, is it really different this time?

http://sufiy.bl...search?q=Google

]]> By: Adam Ostrow http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/comment-page-2/#comment-1657076 Adam Ostrow Wed, 03 Oct 2007 16:45:41 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/#comment-1657076 <strong>Arrington vs Blodget = Kanye vs 50, Part II...</strong> Yesterday, blog king Michael Arrington heavily criticized born-again dotcom analyst Henry Blodget for predicting that Google shares would eventually go to $2,000. This morning, Blodget “struck back” with a pretty much baseless rumor that TechCrunch... Arrington vs Blodget = Kanye vs 50, Part II…

Yesterday, blog king Michael Arrington heavily criticized born-again dotcom analyst Henry Blodget for predicting that Google shares would eventually go to $2,000. This morning, Blodget “struck back” with a pretty much baseless rumor that TechCrunch…

]]> By: cory http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/comment-page-2/#comment-1657070 cory Wed, 03 Oct 2007 16:43:09 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/#comment-1657070 I did buy it at $200. I did buy it at $200.

]]> By: granov http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/comment-page-2/#comment-1656994 granov Wed, 03 Oct 2007 15:44:31 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/#comment-1656994 i should have bought it at 200$ :) bugger. i should have bought it at 200$ :)
bugger.

]]> By: dax http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/comment-page-2/#comment-1656880 dax Wed, 03 Oct 2007 15:04:03 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/#comment-1656880 "to the commenters that say I just don’t understand Blodget’s methodologies - Actually I do. In the late nineties I wrote a book on initial public offerings and spent countless hours working with investment bankers to understand, deeply, how their valuation models work before I wrote about them. And they are, 100%, bullshit. I kept it top level in the post above bc that kind of detail isn’t really relevant. But I can certainly write a longer post explaining in detail how these models can be manipulated to come to absolutely any conclusion the author wants." So one could extrapolate that what you are really saying that ALL public companies valuation estimates/ guideposts, and hence the stock quotes each and everyday, are really illusionary, arbitrary "bullshit" functions of "THE MAN on Wall Street" ?? Perhaps we would all do better getting our ideas and stock estimates from the blogging community- which has as much - if not more back office, two-handed,clandestine secretive intentions toward gaining riches than most industries, all in the name of "being heard and standing out"--which is all I believe Blodget is trying to do anyway “to the commenters that say I just don’t understand Blodget’s methodologies – Actually I do. In the late nineties I wrote a book on initial public offerings and spent countless hours working with investment bankers to understand, deeply, how their valuation models work before I wrote about them. And they are, 100%, bullshit. I kept it top level in the post above bc that kind of detail isn’t really relevant. But I can certainly write a longer post explaining in detail how these models can be manipulated to come to absolutely any conclusion the author wants.”

So one could extrapolate that what you are really saying that ALL public companies valuation estimates/ guideposts, and hence the stock quotes each and everyday, are really illusionary, arbitrary “bullshit” functions of “THE MAN on Wall Street” ??

Perhaps we would all do better getting our ideas and stock estimates from the blogging community- which has as much – if not more back office, two-handed,clandestine secretive intentions toward gaining riches than most industries, all in the name of “being heard and standing out”–which is all I believe Blodget is trying to do anyway

]]> By: PJ Brunet http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/comment-page-2/#comment-1656854 PJ Brunet Wed, 03 Oct 2007 14:38:21 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/#comment-1656854 This won't matter: "a credit crunch, a housing collapse or a recession" Google runs ads worldwide, collects from and pays more webmasters from more countries than any other program. Once G-Phone is out they sink Paypal/Visa/Mastercard with that new phone-payment patent ;-) This won’t matter: “a credit crunch, a housing collapse or a recession” Google runs ads worldwide, collects from and pays more webmasters from more countries than any other program.

Once G-Phone is out they sink Paypal/Visa/Mastercard with that new phone-payment patent ;-)

]]> By: Richard http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/comment-page-2/#comment-1656831 Richard Wed, 03 Oct 2007 14:20:20 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/#comment-1656831 I would interested in seeing a longer post as well with some detail supporting why the $2k stock price is "bullshit" for Google. I would interested in seeing a longer post as well with some detail supporting why the $2k stock price is “bullshit” for Google.

]]> By: Nader http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/comment-page-2/#comment-1656806 Nader Wed, 03 Oct 2007 13:52:25 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/#comment-1656806 "But I can certainly write a longer post explaining in detail how these models can be manipulated to come to absolutely any conclusion the author wants." I would be interested! “But I can certainly write a longer post explaining in detail how these models can be manipulated to come to absolutely any conclusion the author wants.”

I would be interested!

]]> By: Ronin http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/comment-page-2/#comment-1656794 Ronin Wed, 03 Oct 2007 13:44:42 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/#comment-1656794 Blodget has sent you some flowers :) http://www.alleyinsider.com/2007/10/techcrunch-to-s.html Blodget has sent you some flowers :)
http://www.alle...runch-to-s.html

]]> By: Jason Coleman http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/comment-page-1/#comment-1656763 Jason Coleman Wed, 03 Oct 2007 13:17:36 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/#comment-1656763 I must be crazy. Blodget has Google reaching $2000 in 10-15 years. I just did some "magic" calculations and put Google at over $3000 in 10 years. Here are my conservative estimates (from about a month ago) that show that Google is fairly valued right now. Starting EPS: $10.58 EPS Growth: 20% EPS in 10 Years: $65.51 (This is simply calculated by compounding our starting EPS by 20% for 10 years) Average PE: 32 (Or more specifically what we can expect the PE to be in 10 years.) Future Value: $3,078.90 (Simply the future EPS x the future PE) Sticker Price: $524.07 (In order to make a 15% per year return on my investment in GOOG, I’d have to buy at this price.) You could think of the difference between the future $3,078 value and the current $500-$600 as an asumption that the "time value of money" is about 15%. More at this link, including my less conservative estimate that puts a sticker price (what GOOG should be valued at now) at $1000: http://www.investorgeeks.com/articles/2007/08/23/google-is-a-value-play/ For Google to approach the valuations I've calculated, it would have to make about $49 Billion per year in earnings. Exxon just posted record earnings of $36 Billion, which is about $49 Billion in 2017 dollars (assuming 3% inflation). So if you think Google can be as big of an earner as Exxon in 10 years, the valuation is sound. How much you agree with that outcome will vary. I must be crazy. Blodget has Google reaching $2000 in 10-15 years. I just did some “magic” calculations and put Google at over $3000 in 10 years.

Here are my conservative estimates (from about a month ago) that show that Google is fairly valued right now.

Starting EPS: $10.58
EPS Growth: 20%
EPS in 10 Years: $65.51 (This is simply calculated by compounding our starting EPS by 20% for 10 years)
Average PE: 32 (Or more specifically what we can expect the PE to be in 10 years.)
Future Value: $3,078.90 (Simply the future EPS x the future PE)
Sticker Price: $524.07 (In order to make a 15% per year return on my investment in GOOG, I’d have to buy at this price.)

You could think of the difference between the future $3,078 value and the current $500-$600 as an asumption that the “time value of money” is about 15%.

More at this link, including my less conservative estimate that puts a sticker price (what GOOG should be valued at now) at $1000:
http://www.inve...s-a-value-play/

For Google to approach the valuations I’ve calculated, it would have to make about $49 Billion per year in earnings. Exxon just posted record earnings of $36 Billion, which is about $49 Billion in 2017 dollars (assuming 3% inflation). So if you think Google can be as big of an earner as Exxon in 10 years, the valuation is sound. How much you agree with that outcome will vary.

]]> By: Deal Launch http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/comment-page-1/#comment-1656679 Deal Launch Wed, 03 Oct 2007 11:53:36 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/#comment-1656679 This guy is an absolute joke. Here's an article from 2006 where he says the Google run is going to be over in the near future. http://www.internetoutsider.com/2006/01/google_fun_whil.html This guy is an absolute joke. Here’s an article from 2006 where he says the Google run is going to be over in the near future.

http://www.inte...e_fun_whil.html

]]> By: CrunchNotes » Wow. We’re worth $100 million! http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/comment-page-1/#comment-1656672 CrunchNotes » Wow. We’re worth $100 million! Wed, 03 Oct 2007 11:46:10 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/#comment-1656672 [...] a day after I trash Henry Blodget for touting Google stock at $2,000 a share he write a post titled “TechCrunch to Sell to CNET [...] [...] a day after I trash Henry Blodget for touting Google stock at $2,000 a share he write a post titled “TechCrunch to Sell to CNET [...]

]]> By: Mark Evans - Henry Blodget 2.0! http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/comment-page-1/#comment-1656662 Mark Evans - Henry Blodget 2.0! Wed, 03 Oct 2007 11:34:42 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/#comment-1656662 [...] the guy who brashly predicted Amazon would hit $400 during the dot-com boom. Kara Swisher and Michael Arrington says “ha” they’re missing Blodget’s point, which, I think, is that online [...] [...] the guy who brashly predicted Amazon would hit $400 during the dot-com boom. Kara Swisher and Michael Arrington says “ha” they’re missing Blodget’s point, which, I think, is that online [...]

]]> By: Mike http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/comment-page-1/#comment-1656641 Mike Wed, 03 Oct 2007 11:22:47 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/#comment-1656641 "the stock [Amazon] did hit that price, then fell apart" split adjusted, Amazon is only 10% below the famous $400 price target. “the stock [Amazon] did hit that price, then fell apart”

split adjusted, Amazon is only 10% below the famous $400 price target.

]]> By: Michael Arrington http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/comment-page-1/#comment-1656585 Michael Arrington Wed, 03 Oct 2007 10:46:48 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/02/google-to-2000share-somebody-muzzle-blodget/#comment-1656585 Nik - the stock did hit that price, then fell apart. The question is, would it have hit that price if Blodget hadn't predicted it? The analysts had a lot of power and clearly affect stock prices. but in the end, the amazon fundamentals came nowhere near supporting that valuation. to the commenters that say I just don't understand Blodget's methodologies - Actually I do. In the late nineties I wrote a book on initial public offerings and spent countless hours working with investment bankers to understand, deeply, how their valuation models work before I wrote about them. And they are, 100%, bullshit. I kept it top level in the post above bc that kind of detail isn't really relevant. But I can certainly write a longer post explaining in detail how these models can be manipulated to come to absolutely any conclusion the author wants. Nik – the stock did hit that price, then fell apart. The question is, would it have hit that price if Blodget hadn’t predicted it? The analysts had a lot of power and clearly affect stock prices. but in the end, the amazon fundamentals came nowhere near supporting that valuation.

to the commenters that say I just don’t understand Blodget’s methodologies – Actually I do. In the late nineties I wrote a book on initial public offerings and spent countless hours working with investment bankers to understand, deeply, how their valuation models work before I wrote about them. And they are, 100%, bullshit. I kept it top level in the post above bc that kind of detail isn’t really relevant. But I can certainly write a longer post explaining in detail how these models can be manipulated to come to absolutely any conclusion the author wants.

]]>