Netflix stock jumped up 5.66% today on rumors that the company may be in acquisition talks with by Amazon. The funny thing about public company rumors: when they affect stock prices, it becomes AP-reported news.
Netflix has been under attack from Blockbuster and others in recent years, although membership growth has remained steady and the company is profitable. A whole new class of competitors are emerging, though, that facilitate legal movie downloads. Netflix has entered that market as well, but at a cost of $40 million per year in licensing fees. It may be time to throw in the towel.





I think it’d be a good match, although I moved away from them a while back.
It’d be nice between them to get a nice, solid, movie download service.
It will probably be a good marriage, especially since Blockbuster has really started to take over.
I wonder why Hollywood video management is keeping quiet?
Makes a lot of sense. Does this also stem from Amazons entry into service businesses (using their backend business systems) as well as the competitive issues that Netflix faces? Amazon has been looking to create monthly revenue streams to offset purely transactional revenue.
This would leverage the Netflix model, while utilizing Amazons facilities and customer base to grow the business even more. Provides time to build out the video on demand business.
Also, by tying in NetFlix membership to the amazon membership, they can leverage a great deal of amazon’s huge customer base and vice versa!
I have the inside word, and this is not happening. I am posting anonomously, but mark my words. That’s all I’ll say.
Anyone innovates application your invent killer app.
Any top companies will steal your idea and put into mass market.
Let say NETFLIX offers DVD and movie stream download on internet. Blockbuster will copy it.
This makes perfect sense, with Amazon Unbox, TiVo deals, and most importantly — the backend necessary to make video downloads work, with S3.
Did you know that Amazon S3 already has built in support for not only HTTP downloads from S3 storage, but also BitTorrent? “Simply add the ?torrent parameter at the end of your GET request in the REST API.”
Hmmm…
http://www.amazon.com/S3-FAQs-.....J2AJA#as17
I know of one or two of those legal movie download sites, and they are finding it difficult to get the income. Most of them are in talks of acquisition themselves. I think that legal downloads are in fact going to be the wave of the future… so why such the slow start?
As for Netflix, they are slowing falling behind the cart. I never thought Blockbuster would be able to recover, but they have the handy “return it right to the store” feature that’s hard to overlook when you’re tapping your foot at your mailbox. Which reminds me… where IS my recent Netflix rental?
-Mary from BINC
Any examples of the “competitors are emerging, though, that facilitate legal movie downloads”? I’m intrigued.
Kate - CinemaNow and Movielink are the firs tto come to mind… I think Real Rhapsody might also be dabbling
This is acquisition is NOT going to happen. Take this from an insider.
Movielink really, really sucks. I tried using it the other night again. repeated crashing, auto updates, poor UI.
Amazon already has a video download service, my guess is either the growth isn’t going so well or fast enough to counter other competitors - as such, this makes perfect sense.
Jon
I have used Netflix and I have used Blockbuster - IMHO there is no way that Netflix (with or without Amazon) can compete with the new Blockbuster service…the only way to take out Blockbuster is to offer free, on-demand home delivery (like your corner pizza joint). Mobile video stores (vans) cruising the metros, loaded with videos…with a 30-60 minute order-to-delivery time.
Otherwise, I am going to go to Blockbuster, turn in my shipped videos, pick up a couple of new releases and check the mail in the next day or two….or wait for Comcast and TW to offer new releases on-demand the same day the DVD is available…
I personally think computer downloads are a ridiculous model for the video rental business…
Free, on-demand home delivery is not a viable business. It is NETflix, not free movie delivery. Where does the revenue come from in that scenario? Blockbuster’s current deal of returning movies online and allowing returns may help them acquire new customers, but at a price. Blockbuster’s spending goes and revenue goes down as they push Total Access because more people are renting online and returning to stores for a free rental rather than coming in-store and paying $4-5 for one rental. As more and more people switch to TA, they are slowly making their in-store service less valuable. Since Amazon already owns IMDB they could drive more traffic to Netflix with a Add to Queue link or possibly even combining the functionality of both sites into one.
@ Doug…if free is not viable..charge me a $2 delivery fee…like some of my local pizza places do (some do, some don’t). People are willing to pay for service…always have been, always will be…and there will always be people to fill those jobs at a low hourly wage + tips.
As far as Blockbuster “making their in-store service less valuable” - that is backwards. The in-store service is the value proposition that Netflix does not/cannot offer…
Is the Blockbuster Total Access program profitable? Are they operating at a loss? I dont know…I have not looked into it…maybe I am wrong here. You tell me Doug.
I’d like to see Amazon make this acquisition. Amazon has been able to do a great job of maintaining a very high bar in regards to the talent they employ. We know because we have been able to very successfully infiltrate their development ranks and help some amazing people jo’in startups and others in the seattle area.
We’ve done some calling around Netflix as well and they seem to have a very high bar for talent as well.
From the talent perspective, this marriage would make sense.
Boris Epstein
BINC - Software Search
http://www.bincsearch.com
I love Netflix … been with them 4 years and have rated over 2400 movies and now have 1 recommendation (a Lewis Black special) … anyway, I loved their move into online streaming and was always wondering why shows were a bit slow on getting put online, but now I see the link to the $40 m/year cost (ouch) … this is a good marriage, I like Amazon and love Netflix. Good pairing. Hope it goes through.
@ Dave G…The value of the Total Access service depends on if you’re the customer or Blockbuster. For the customer, you can argue that Blockbuster provides a slightly better service than Netflix since they allow for the in-store returns. Netflix still has online movie streaming, a better website, and their recommendations system. For Blockbuster, the Total Access service is currently hurting their financials but they hope to make it profitable by years end. If they can make it profitable without raising the price of TA, then Netflix may be in trouble. Netflix has only just begun promoting their online streaming service though. Netflix believes Blockbuster will need to raise the price of TA because it is not maintainable at the current level. Time will only tell which is the case.
‘Blockbuster, the No. 1 U.S. video rental chain, reported a surprisingly big quarterly loss on Wednesday on costs for its new online rental program and flat in-store sales, sending its shares down more than 12 percent.’ - Reuters May 2nd, 2007
What I was trying to say in my last post was that as more and more people switch from $4-5 single in-store rentals to Total Access, Blockbuster rents more movies for less revenue. Example: renting 10 movies at $4 each and selling extras stuff in-store vs. unlimited rentals plus returns (10 or more movies) for only $17.99.
Wha? Netflix is still the market leader with consistent growth. Blockbuster is bleeding money to try to catch up and is making some advances in membership base, but the cash loss to do it suggests the total access plan is not a viable long term plan.
Asking if it’s time for Netflix to throw in the towel is like asking if Microsoft should close down now that Dell is selling Linux machines. As the market changes, companies adapt, Netflix is investigating what the next sustainable business model is for video entertainment.
As for Amazon, in my mind, they are the benchmark for mediocre. They’re not bad, but they really don’t stand out either (other than they’re big and my nearly elderly parents have heard of them).
I would really love to see one of these Blockbuster B&M stores that make total access worth having. Getting anything with in 3 months of release is pretty much useless since they went to no late fees a while back.
My guess: not happening. Amazon is into small-scale acquisitions. Netflix has a $1.65 billion market cap. I suspect Amazon would have to pay a hefty premium on top of that to get a deal done. Absent that premium, Netflix will be fine on its own. That it’s profitable and still growing strong are not the minor points you present them as. They have the perfect platform and customer base for going all digital. There are a lot of people, like me, who never ever want to again step foot in a Blockbuster store.
I really like http://www.Movielink.com. It’s very easy to use and has a lot of movies that Netlfix “Instant Viewing” doesn’t.
NewsVisual.com blog provides a visual map of Amazon’s relationships with respect to Netflix. Shows who who may be involved in the discussions.
http://www.newsvisual.com/news.....well_.html
Isn’t Redbox a fair threat to netflix and blockbuster business?