Shakespeare, Happy Days and Prom Queen

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1. Steve Morsa
   

   March 29th, 2007 at 3:26 pm

   Disney has a poor record with virtually everything “Internet.” Unlikely to change with this new offering.

2. sam
   

   March 29th, 2007 at 3:38 pm

   mike…

   i seriously doubt that the user generated content of the type that’s on youTube, will come anywhere close to the quality of current content on TV/movies.. which is pretty poor when you think about it.

   but it takes a good deal of effort to even come up with crap.

   but i’m willing to take your cash if you want to place a bet.. pick a time period of say a few years.. let’s see if you manage to get more than 4-5 small movies that manage to generate any real revs via online viewers..

   you might get a few that are a couple of mins long, that manage to have ads wrapped around them.. but i’m highly suspect that you’re going to get more than the 4-5 to generate revs > $100K….

   i don ‘t really buy into your seismic shift regarding content.. a serious shift in the distribution, no doubt.. i’m with you there… but i don’t see a corresponding shift in the quality of the movies… making quality movies that anyone is going to want to see.. is still going to cost > 100K..

   just my thoughts…

   peace..

3. John
   

   March 29th, 2007 at 3:50 pm

   Mike you missed the most important quote:

   [i]NewTeeVee: How do you distinguish what you are doing with Vuguru from user-generated content, or do you at all?

   Michael Eisner: If I was doing it in 1964 it would be user-generated content, but I have 40 years of semi-professional work in this field. So now we just put a new noun against me, which is professional, rather than user. I mean, there’s no difference except I’m taking my training as an English and theater major onto the internet.[/i]

   I don’t think he’s underestimating the “seismic shift” as much as you are underestimating draw of capitalism.

4. Richard Curry
   

   March 29th, 2007 at 4:12 pm

   I would have been more impressed if it was done on a home DV camera and it was done for 1,000.00, not only impressed but I would probably be looking for all the parts.

5. Michael Arrington
   

   March 29th, 2007 at 4:29 pm

   John, I think that’s good point.

   My biggest concern is the huge amount of advertising they’re throwing at this. We’ll see next week how Myspacers deal with it.

6. Adrian Keys
   

   March 29th, 2007 at 5:04 pm

   “i seriously doubt that the user generated content of the type that’s on youTube, will come anywhere close to the quality of current content on TV/movies.. which is pretty poor when you think about it.” - Sam

   Hey Sam

   Studies already show that internet users prefer “garage” video…so I would be careful to make bets if I were you.

   Also, YouTube clearly had a lot of pirated stuff but who would have guessed that the crappy videos would have taken them so far.

7. Kewtr
   

   March 29th, 2007 at 5:12 pm

   Yeah maybe it’s all the old media expertise that is totally stagnating moder cinema. I mean it is plain stale out there. I’ll take rough edges and the possibility of a surprise over another well-planned and edited remake anyday.

8. kfc
   

   March 29th, 2007 at 5:34 pm

   dude, om beat you to the draw…

9. Tom Grubisich
   

   March 29th, 2007 at 5:42 pm

   Typically you’ve creatively conflated a bunch of trends, past, present and future, and forced us to think about where all this is going. And where might that be? You say, “Some of [the audience] content will be better than anything Hollywood produces.” It will. But the “demos” creators who rise to the top — the cream — will be hired and become part of “Hollywood.” In the days of classic Greek theater, the winners were chosen publicly. So?

10. MST 1948
    

    March 29th, 2007 at 5:50 pm

    “Old media, where he lumps “Greek mythology and Shakespeare and Eugene O’Neill and Happy Days” together, is where the creativity is. He says old media types “understand motivation, and character, and where the denouement goes, and how to develop interests between characters, and make people laugh, and cry”

    WILL BIG MEDIA EVER GET IT?? don’t they realize the reason YouTube (nay, the entire ‘web 2.0′ surge– the democritization of infotainment) became so freaking popular is because people are SICK of “old media”??? and their formulas and advertising and plots, etc, etc….we rather watch ‘muffins’

11. Michael Arrington
    

    March 29th, 2007 at 6:44 pm

    kfc - he (or rather Liz) sure did. That’s why I’m linking to her.

12. Jay
    

    March 29th, 2007 at 6:48 pm

    Um Michael - I just had an awesome post on here where I worked out the metrics to prove that this model can’t work even with generous assumptions and it didn’t post. Are you moderating lengthy posts? I should have copied it into Notepad beforehand!

13. Fareed
    

    March 29th, 2007 at 7:41 pm

    Also of note is that almost all the props/products used in the set and costumes are placed and available for sale on StarStyle.com:

    http://clickz.com/showPage.html?page=3625230

    This increases the advertising : content ratio even higher. Even if the content is good, I don’t think people are going to go for this.

14. Mark
    

    March 29th, 2007 at 7:48 pm

    Sam, you should really read The Long Tail. The shift that is taking place is not about a single amateur video outgrossing that of the studios. It is about abundance and unlimited selection in the long tail that, as a whole, is already competing with the “hits”.

15. Frank
    

    March 29th, 2007 at 7:58 pm

    How many ads? You must be joking. You ever watch Ask a Ninja or Ze Frank? Entertaining, not annoying - and it can be syndicated everywhere, not attached to a specific player.

    Users want this form of entertainment where and when they want it. For example, we have users that bring in video from all over the internet, then download it all to the PC and watch it on the plane, or on their video iPod while on the subway, or in SecondLife. The power of new media. Beautiful.

16. Tony Chen
    

    March 29th, 2007 at 7:58 pm

    “then the lawsuits sill start”

    What the SILL?

17. Jay
    

    March 29th, 2007 at 8:07 pm

    Note: MM = million

    @14 Mark - don’t kid yourself about the whole Long Tail thing.

    Yes, what will happen is a huge spread of producers, actors, etc. We already know far more people are going to be involved. TV/movies/media in general are some of the toughest spaces for individuals to make it big. A few lonelygirl’s will emerge, but most will be massive failures. Isn’t that what American Idol teaches us?

    Moreover, the problem of video-based advertising on the internet is that one will only tolerate so much. NBC has been smart to break up shows into 7 segments and have a short 15 - 30 second spot in between. AOL In TV has shows with 3-4 30 second spots in between. That is the most TV online can sustain. Furthermore, I think online video ads are even more likely to be ignored than ads on regular TV - you can just tab over to another window to view other content and basically get an audio ad at that point - the value of an audio ad versus a video ad with audio is significantly lower. TiVo like things will pop-up for online advertising and the penetration/rate of ignoring ads will be higher than it is with regular TV.

    As it is, most regular web browsers don’t pay attention to ads. Tell me, what is the last time you actually clicked on an ad and bought something? Never perhaps? Do you actually care about any of the ads on TechCrunch? And this is a very targeted blog.

    The production model for shows/content on online video is going to be very hard to make profitable. One would probably have to launch 1000 mini-shows to get to one mega hit (e.g. 10 MM subs watching once a week).

    @ 15 Frank - don’t overestimate the power of things like Second Life. The average person thinks Second Life is a waste of life, energy, bandwidth, and electricity. Ever thought about getting a First Life? SecondLife has a lot of users who don’t really do anything. Just like all these other sites that claim 20 MM users. More like 1 MM!

    All of these things are novel now, but only truly unique and high-quality content will get us anywhere. If you have a site driven by user generated content, chances are 95%+ is total crap and advertisers don’t want to be associated with that.

    Most of us already ignore online ads and with crap content, we’ll ignore them even more.

    WAKE UP TechCrunch readers. Quality content is valuable. Crap content is not.

18. Gwen from Tempe
    

    March 29th, 2007 at 8:11 pm

    The kids certainly do like their short doses of crap. They will hang around longer if the production is good, though. My nephew can spend hours playing with his Wii.

19. Brian Laks
    

    March 29th, 2007 at 8:21 pm

    Their huge budget might be their downfall… Why spend anything? Just a camera and a dream… I think the product placement will prove to be more effective than intermittent advertising. Just look at shows like the Apprentice.. I’d have a hard time telling you who advertised during the commercials, but I do remember all the Lexus branding they pumped with a fury during the actual show.

20. David Mackey
    

    March 29th, 2007 at 8:24 pm

    I don’t think I’m representative, but I know I won’t be watching. Why? Because it takes too long to find shows and I want something extended to attract my attention. Not movie length - that is a major commitment. 40 minutes - 1 hr. Its enough to keep me from having to move around, but not enough to drain away my day.

21. Michael Arrington
    

    March 29th, 2007 at 8:27 pm

    Tony - do you have anything better to do than hang out here and find typos? I appreciate you pointing them out, but you don’t seem to ever have anything else to add.

22. Tony Chen
    

    March 29th, 2007 at 9:32 pm

    Did you read my other comments from the past, Mike?

    Also, While I usually don’t post typos, in this single read I found too many so I thought you might want to know.

    Do these typos add nothing?

    Also, why don’t you post your comment here that you sent me by email? Should I?

    See my comment here: http://www.crunchnotes.com/?p=377

23. neal
    

    March 30th, 2007 at 2:34 am

    “Good ideas will come from amateurs as well as professionals. Innovation will not just flow down a pipeline, from experts working in their labs and studios, to passive consumers waiting in the line. Innovation is a social, cumulative and collaborative activity; ideas will flow back up the pipeline from consumers and they will share them amongst themselves. That is why the next big thing will be us: our power to share and develop ideas, without having to rely on formal organisations to do it all for us”

    from “We Think: Why Mass Creativity is the Next Big Thing” by Charles Leadbeater

24. Rick
    

    March 30th, 2007 at 3:00 am

    The debate about quality aside, some people seem to equate quality with commercial success, thereby totally ignoring what makes this “quality” mass entertainment attractive to advertiseres: attention.

    And that attention is shifting towards other things then professionally produced content. And I don’t just mean crappy YouTube videos, I mean myriads off ways of personal interaction (for which a lot of the UGC serves as a context).

    People are paying less and less attention to the “quality” product from Hollywood. That is the seismic shift we’re talking about. Whether or not Old Media will continue to have a monopoly on premium content is irrelevant. They will still have to share that attention with millions of others.

25. Michael Arrington
    

    March 30th, 2007 at 3:31 am

    Tony, the problem is that you ridicule the typos, and you link to your service. It comes across as spammy and obnoxious. Yes, I very much appreciate that you and others point out typos. I write many of these posts in the wee hours and lots of typos make their way to the site. But if you could just chill out a little on the attitude it would be much MORE appreciated.

26. John
    

    March 30th, 2007 at 6:01 am

    Mike,

    I think the “users don’t want advertising” bit is overblown, but time will tell.

    I’ve gotta give Eisner credit. Whether or not it takes off, its an innovative idea that has the potential to take advantage of social media and online video while making a ton of money. If it takes off he can sell the full length version on iTunes, DVDs, etc. Maybe Prom Queen II launches in theaters.

    He might very well have invented a new model that benefits “old media”, “new media”, amateur film developers and the general public. I think we should be celebrating the idea.

27. Jim
    

    March 30th, 2007 at 6:53 am

    Baffling - people with nothing better to do than carp about a successful guy’s typos. No life of their own, I guess.

    Eisner is overrated. Disney’s success in the 80’s-90’s was largely due to Frank Wells, who was ostensibly #2 until his accidental death (helicopter crash) in 1994. Wells was revered by all at Disney, and was able to keep the peace among all the fractious, fragile egos (Katzenberg, Peter Schneider, etc). To prove the point, Well’s died about three months before the Lion King debuted. Katzenberg left about a year later and the Ovitz debacle followed soon thereafter. Disney hasn’t made good animation movies since, or done anything else memorable (except for making Jobs another billion and adding him to the board).

    Eisner never got/doesn’t get the difference between the interactive, instantly switchable nature of the Internet, versus his glory days in the 60’s with Barry Diller doing soap operas when there were only three broadcast TV outlets in the entire US. Only three. The profound difference between that world and today would be analogous to the difference between the world of stage coaches and trains in the 1890’s versus the coming of age of the automobile (and the expansion of personal choice that accompanied it) during the 1950’s/60’s. (difference in length of time for impact due to compression of technology adoption curve).

    Eisner longs for yesterday. Diller, his former boss, gets it and participates in creating the future.

28. Derek Scruggs
    

    March 30th, 2007 at 7:08 am

    I think Tom Grubisich has it right. The best amateurs will be co-opted by Hollywood. A friend of mine has a very successful radio show and a mini web empire. He says he’d drop it in a second for a cable TV deal.

    Ze Frank is another example. He did his show for a year, then gladly quit because the workload was killing him. The rumor is that he will have a cable show soon. (He also is vehemently opposed to uploading his stuff to YouTube.)

    I’ve watched probably a thousand videos on YouTube over the past year. Of those, probably 85% are copyrighted “old media” creative (Daily Show, Colbert Report, the Simpsons). Another 10% are old media sports — great Michael Jordan moments, for example. The 3-5% come from amateurs. I include Ze Frank in that last category.

    Heck, look at TechCrunch. What’s the ratio of old media to new that you’ve embedded in your posts? Especially if you leave out things like screencam demos?

29. rack pallet
    

    March 30th, 2007 at 7:11 am

    - yeah for sure; anything backed by disney is - black balled… on the net

    - Also too many commercials is a turn off; re-invent advertising and become the next google…

    -Rbowles

30. Fabian Schonholz
    

    March 30th, 2007 at 8:17 am

    @27 Jim -

    I do not 100% agree with you. Yes, Frank Wells was a driving force at Disney and I have the greatest respect for him. I used to work for his son, Kevin, at Disney OnLine in 1997/98. My opinion is that Eisner/Wells was a well oiled team and if the situation would have been reversed, then we would have seen a similar situation. CEOs do not do it on their own. They not only need a team, but a team that SUITS each particular CEO. Wells and Eisner were that to each other - a team.

31. jWorth
    

    March 30th, 2007 at 9:39 am

    It’s true that a lot of people underestimate the ’seismic shift’ but a big part of that shift is that the actual quality of the content is almost entirely irrelevant on the web. It’s not ‘motivation and character’ that make for compelling viewing (although those things help) - its the fact that the online video culture is a two-way conversation. Even if you don’t make videos and just sit and watch clips on youTube, the mere fact that you could if you wanted to is what makes it all so fun. We’re done having stories told to us by people who are trying to make money off our attention.

32. Jim
    

    March 30th, 2007 at 12:49 pm

    @30 Fabina,

    I agree they were yin/yang and together made and attracted other members of a terrific team. That doesn’t negate my basic point that Eisner is overrated. Lots of non-Hollywood people probably attribute Disney’s success to Eisner alone, not knowing what a critical role Wells played. That Disney’s wheels eventually fell off under Eisner alone was inevitable.

33. Fabian Schonholz
    

    March 30th, 2007 at 4:13 pm

    @32 Jim

    I am not trying to defend Eisner but I am trying to be objective. Beyond the YIN/YANG, if everybody always says “yes” to a CEO, then bad things will happen. You can feel that Eisner is overrated. I feel that he lost an exceptional partner and the other people around Eisner, for whatever reason - I really do not want to take away from them either because it would not be fair to them - just could not fill in the shoes. Part of it is definitely on Eisner - possibly he did not allow for a transition to happen - but you can not take Eisner’s accomplishments before and after away from him either. Nobody is perfect and we all make mistakes, but you do not get to be in certain positions just because. Whether Eisner is a visionary or not, only the future will tell; but based on his track record, I will give him the benefit of the doubt.

    And regarding Disney’s wheels falling off … well … all companies go through changes, ups and downs. Large companies are more like countries and governments that we care to admit. And the economic cycles are inevitable. And some of these cycles result in M&As (conquests) or reorganizations (revolutions). In some cases the countries become stronger after all and in some other cases they pass into oblivion and they just keep on chugging along.

    Who knows .. maybe the best of things are yet to come for Disney. They still have a very strong group of people there and work on a regular basis on some very interesting stuff.