doesn’t have a variable for?http://www.allconverter.net

It’s somewhat of a fallacy that Vegas always tries to balance the wagers 50/50. They have the best information in the business and will shade their wager balance to reflect a house advantage based on their information compiled over years of doing sports business.

In effect…sometimes they are making a wager to maximize their overall profits. Why wouldn’t they if they know for a fact what the true odds are based on a large statistical sample?

“IF” the information from pickspal is true in regard to their record…it certainly will influence the wagering markets if they continue to post records above 55% ATS. Once the herd effect kicks in…viral marketing works fast.

Just look at the Dr. Bob story this past year. He was moving Pinnacle lines like crazy on Thursday when his picks came out. It doesn’t take much money in today’s connected world to move the lines. The books are now ultra-sensitive to the herds.

MJ
http://www.blackboxwagers.com

They should change the above to reflect which one of your friends sent this to you in the subject line. I almost thought it was spam because the person that sent me the invitation didn’t have their email/user id in it.

Another thing that’s worth noting here is that no money is changing hands. There is a psychological effect when you’re just predicting a result and have no risk. Therefore people using a service like PicksPal (who might not even be real bettors anyway) are probably more likely to make predictions that are different than the picks they’d make if they were putting money on the line. Many of PicksPal’s users have probably never placed a real bet in the first place.

Shredder
http://www.monomachines.com

=P

The only thing that has impressed me about PicksPal is their ability to scam so much venture capital, and their ability to get press. Their predictive ability doesn’t impress me in the least.

Sports bettors for years have tried to “follow the smart money” with varying degrees of success. Of course that necessitates to knowing who the “smart money” is, but I can definitely tell you that they’re not making random picks for “bragging rights” on a website like this. This sort of service would be more valuable for getting an idea about who the general public–which we refer to as “squares” in the biz–is backing. Over the longterm going against the general public is a good idea.

The notion that this will “disrupt betting markets” is laughable. Its not even on the radar screen of 99% of the bookmaking industry in Nevada or offshore, or the players and handicappers who move any significant amount of money. The minority who is aware of it, quite frankly, could care less about the opinion of PicksPal’s “geniuses”.

I agree with the post that suggests to not send money to “geniuses” who can hit even a high percentage for a single year. I’ve been doing this fulltime for most of my adult life and work 14 hours a day to keep myself and my clients in the black. Every year someone claims to be a genius because they hit 60%+ but the trick is to do it over the long haul.

Just checking a few games I also notices that their spread data seemed to be dated on a couple of games, if they don’t update their data as the event nears, their results are useless.

I think this is another great example of just that. It’s funny that these top users don’t even realize what great data they are pumping out.

- Josh

Where’s your head at? – http://www.StateOfBrain.com

I also think the idea of predictive markets for the stock market is quite dumb – the stock market itself is a predictive market. It’s easy for a lot of amateurs to forget that the stock market is manipulated on a daily basis and there are people who have information that is not publicly known, so the basis on which the average person makes their stock picking decisions may seem rational but isn’t going to make money because you’re playing checkers against people who are playing chess.