I came across two iPhone YouTube videos this morning. The first one is serious – Microsoft’s Steve Ballmer scoffing at the iPhone in a way that makes it seem like he’s actually a bit nervous about it. He pushes the Motorola Q as a mobile Windows device that he says is a better choice for business users – “It will do Internet.” I don’t know what Motorola Q he’s using, but mine barely makes phone calls in between crashes. The second video is pure humor, and very relevant given all the hype around this yet to be released device.
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Awesome video… its a treadmill.
Mike – we already know your position with Apple. I do agree with him that the cost will be a huge factor for this device. This is not as easy as picking up an iPod which you can even get in a vending machine these days. This is a LOT more complicated (which my math on CN shows $1936 first year usage at the base level) and while users like yourself will flock and purchase up this device very quickly, Steve is right about this device for business. It’s not there. There will be a very high initial demand but that demand will drop quickly once it gets past the wealthy set.
Don’t get me wrong, its a pretty device.
Allen – how about a gentleman’s bet? Let’s take a look at the iPhone a few months after launch and find an objective or third party way of verifying if it’s a true business device. Loser has to write a post about how TechCrunch was right and CenterNetworks was wrong. Deal?
Deal.
Oh yeah nobody cares what I think. On principle though, I wouldn’t use the iPhone to wipe. “You don’t want your phone to be an open platform.” No? I don’t? Oh thanks, I had forgotten what I wanted.
I think that’s as laughable as anything Ballmer could ever say about the iPhone.
Allen – NO ONE knows that the rate plans will be for the iPhone, Cingular has not made them public yet.
Second, has ANY reporter caught on to the fact that this will use cheaper and faster Wi-Fi for data when available? I refer you, and all reporters out there, back to the keynote – the iPhone will *seamlessly* switch between Edge ($$$) and Wi-Fi (faster and cheaper).
Name one phone that will do that other than the iPhone. I can tell you this is somewhat of a concern for Cingular as they are trying to increase revenue from data traffic.
Lastly, the iPhone at the keynote was not feature complete and therefore can not be reviewed as a business device until such time as it’s officially launched.
To those that truly use a lot of data, this will save a boat load over their existing plans.
People seem to commonly forget Apple isn’t after the *mass market*! They don’t want 50%. They are aiming for only 1 in 100 interested consumers over the course of an entire year. They don’t need everybody to afford the iPhone right now. I think there are enough techies and rich people out there willing to shell out $500 for a smart phone that is “cutting edge” and the next fashion gadget.
Condiment dispenser!! That’s good stuff.
I would have to agree with Ballmer a bit on price. I can not see buying the first generation of iphone due to limited capacity. I can not replace my 30GB ipod with a 4GB or 8GB iphone. I don’t know the stats, but there are probably a lot of ipod users that have had them for a few years that exceed the capacity of 4GB. Then it just becomes an expensive cell phone.
And Allen’s estimate is on the low end if you actually talk on your cell phone. If you use any amount of minutes a month the costs will rise significantly.
Michael, If I had to bet I am would go with Allen
Brian – that’s ok. I’ll take both of you on the terms I proposed.
DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS
God I hate that dude. What a nervous nelly.
My little sister(22) wants one, my little brother(20) wants one, my mother wants one. None of them will use this for business.
When you think about paying 200-300 for an ipod alone the price really isnt that much of a barrier. The barrier if any will be the data plan. Everyone that gets this phone will want to go online. Those data fees will rack up.
I have the sprint SERO plan with a Treo 700wx where I have unlimited data and use it more than I should (slingbox). If the iphone was free I wouldn’t switch unless Cingular’s data plans changed drastically.
I’ll will bet you mike!
Ballmer scoffing at the iPhone is like a mouse talking crap about a juicy piece of cheese when its hungry.
You can see it in his eyes – he wants one too!
Mike, how much are you paid to BS the Q the way you do?
Yan – no one’s ever offered me money to trash a competitor (or themselves), so in this case nothing.
People see to overlook the ability to make iPhone specific web apps. Seems like the access point for pretty much anything. Given time, they’ll add flash & such to the browser, and with new versions the original iPhone 1.0 will be $49 with a two year plan.
This is the birth of a whole new iPhone economy, just like the iPod.
I don’t know where I heard it, or if it’s a real quote, but I heard someone say “it’s 5 years ahead of all other cell phones.” That’s the most ridiculous statement I’ve ever heard if it’s true.
I don’t overlook iPhone web apps– I discount them. Unless you want to be soaking up data plan minutes while you’re doing anything, it’s just not for me. And especially on portable devices, you are much more limited in what you can do with JS at a reasonable speed. I’m sure there will be services, and I’m sure I won’t want to use them.
I was thinking a looping “You don’t want your phone to be an open platform,” would be a great ad for the Linux phone coming, or the N800 for that matter. Just mock turtlenecks flying around, that audio loop, and application after application that won’t run on the iPhone.
Mike, if your Q *truly* crashes as much as you say it does, I’d either exchange it, or stop installing the equivalent of CrashWare on it.
Then again, some of your more regular readers may be on to something…
Fullman – thanks for the suggestion that I’m being paid off to trash the Q. Makes sense to me. I write whatever people pay me to write.
I believe that the iPhone and all cell phones for that matter are a waste of time and money.
“Loser has to write a post about how TechCrunch was right and CenterNetworks was wrong. Deal?”
Tricky, tricky, Mike. Heads I win, tales you lose.
finally someone actually reads the terms before they agree.
Let’s not forget that rumors have been going on for a while that Google has its own secret phone goodies baking in the oven.
Back in Dec/2006, there was a widely reported rumor that Orange (a cell phone co in Europe) and Google were talking about a “Googlephone”, and then right after iPhone news broke, there was another rumor that Samsung and Google had been working on a touch-screen-based cell phone device.
On the issue of price point, Eric Schmidt, Google’s CEO, is reported to have wondered aloud about a “free cell phone subsidized by Google ads” — now, that’s a price point you can’t beat. Here is the Engadget article about it:
http://www.enga...on-googlephone/
One, two, three, four…I declare a flame war!!
Mike’s not paid off to trash the Q, he just plays garageband music backwards and apple messages come out
Yes, I will take you on your challenge
What defines business though?
Whatever you want it to, ’cause my intention is to rewrite history to make sure that I was right now matter what happens.
I have been using PDA phones from HP and HTC in the last few years, and they are very far from “crashing between making phone calls”. I currently have a Windows Mobile 5 device from HTC and it crashes very rarely.
I have no idea about how good Motorola Q is, but in 2004 I begun using the HP IPAQ H6300 – which is VERY SIMILAR to the iPhone – http://www.gsma..._h6325-1310.php
And yes, I could use this HP PDA-phone just by pressing with my fingers the buttons shown on-screen. And yes, it could play MP3 and video files, and could use a SD memory card which can have up to 4 GB capacity.
Apple boasts that iPhone is new, when in fact very similar devices exist at least from 2004 – and even earlier if we take into account the Sony Ericsson P800 or the Handspring Treo, etc.
Apple boasts about the “buttonless phone”, but the market has been moving away from touchscreen-only designs for years now. Many modern smartphones have a slide-in QWERTY keyboard – that is because it’s a lot easier to type on that than on an on-screen keyboard.
Perhaps all you are interested in is a music phone. Check out the Sony Ericsson W950i then – it has 4 GB of internal memory, without any card. And there are phones from Samsung which have 8 GB internal memory.
So – Apple is getting into this market LATE and with little original features. Instead, they boast-boast-boast, hype-hype-hype. And I don’t understand why, but people get enthusiastic about some features just because they are from Apple.
I wish Apple all the success in the world – but that success should be founded on something other than releasing a 2007 a copycat of a 2004 device from HP.
LOL @ Josh – good catch
I knew you would say that… but remember you might be Ivan Drago, but I am Rocky
I will take Bill Gates in the 10th round over Jobs when Gates uses a sweater to put out Jobs.
I just bought a SLVR – in all seriousness, how come this device didn’t do so well? It has full iTunes…
“I refer you, and all reporters out there, back to the keynote – the iPhone will *seamlessly* switch between Edge ($$$) and Wi-Fi (faster and cheaper).
Name one phone that will do that other than the iPhone. I can tell you this is somewhat of a concern for Cingular as they are trying to increase revenue from data traffic.”
Nokie N80IE.
I think silly Steve does have a point. iPhone will likely be a killer consumer phone. They will sell millions – no doubt. But it does not look like a business device to me.
I agree with you about the Q. Windows Mobile is not there yet. I think Blackberry is the top of the heap for business users right now. I don’t have a camera or an mp3 player in my blackberry 7130, yet I would never trade it in for an iPhone. Besides, how would I reply to emails while driving on the freeway with one of those?
Seriously, you cannot type on a touchscreen. Tactile feedback is critical.
Paul – I agree about typing on a touchscreen completely.
However, I can’t type fast or without typos on my Q either. The keys are just too small and too close together.
What we need is decent (not even great) voice recognition software so that we can speak quick replies to emails and have it convert to text. It needs to be no better at typos than the small keyboards on phones today, and it will be a lot faster.
h6325 is what I have for a couple of years and on-screen buttons is the feature that irritates me the most. The tactile part of dialing the number appears to be very important.
Yes, it’s a shame Apple didn’t announce that!
Those tiny keys are why I never got an early Blackberry. I think the new Blackberrys like the 7130 with the larger (shared) keys and word prediction might be the best compromise for people like me (big fingers).
Just saw the second video. Hilarious. Thanks!
The guy from Microsoft sounded like Jim Carey’s co-star in Dumb n Dumber. Btw did they really sell (millions, and millions, and millions, and millions, and millions, and millions, and millions) 7 million phones last year? Who needs a keyboard if they come out with a voice recognition software stronger than Dragon Naturally Speaking?
Paul Freet: This isn’t like your touch screen on the 8125 or similar 8525. The touch screen has already shown that it can handle more than one touch at a time, with NO LAG. All the windows mobile devices have such slow processors and bogged down memory. The reason why current touch screens don’t work is because you can only touch it one at a time and you have to wait a split second before touching again.
If your Q crashes that often then u need to take it back and get a working Q…or you’re already an Apple Zombie…
I’m currently using a Treo 700Wx and haven’t had any problems…and yes it does everything that the iPhone is advertising and it does it marvelously…
BTW…i got the phone for FREE!!!!!!!!!
I agree that it’s gonna be a hard to use cell phone. I recently wrote about similar issues on my blog. Notably, why the iPhone will be impossible to use while driving. Reprehensible as the practice is, it’s a common use case.
In response to voice recognition, it sounds like Spinvox needs to reverse its business model.
I have a SLVR, but don’t use it to play music, because I have an iPod. I like this phone, because it’s insanely thin and its buttons are easy to use. I think Apple is breaking one of their own rules here: Keep It Simple Stupid! Apple is going to have a hell of a time marketing against one of their own products.
“However, I can’t type fast or without typos on my Q either. The keys are just too small and too close together.”
Mike, you can’t even type without typos using a regular computer keyboard anyway.
Mike you can have your iPhone that will be locked down for two years with AT&T.
Many others are looking at the FIC Neo 1973 and the OpenMoko Platform
http://en.wikip...g/wiki/OpenMoko
I cant belive that you like Apple so much when they are one of the main companies supporting vendor lock in .
Remeber this next time you write about DRM
While I realize there are other phones that play MP3s, looking at Steve’s responses, I’m curious:
When is Microsoft going to come out with a ZunePhone?
Just get this to hold you over until June:
http://www.lfst...blue-sweet.html
A phone makes calls. An iPod plays music. The myBlue allows the two to connect via bluetooth.
I cannot believe you take the time to respond to these dolts and idiots, Michael. I would think that you’d be busier than that. I mean, really, a post of Ballmer being an idiot, and a video mocking the iPhone leads to complaints that you’re an Apple fanboy? Perhaps these folks have been soaking in the aura of Monkey Boy too long: has anybody actually used Windows Mobile? I use it everyday, and damn, it’s a POS.
And think about the prices in europe… They will be even higher… My godness…
Let’s hope they do not use the same conversion rate as they usually do for video games: 1 USD = 1 EURO …. (A game is 60USD in US so it is 60 EUR…)
Hi, Mike,
Read with interest the Wall Street Journal article. I’m not quite sure you fit the “surf bum” made good discription. It makes an old teacher proud to read about successful former students. I like the tone you set with your articles in TechCrunch. Hope you get this and reply to my email.
Herm
I don’t like it.
It’s an over featured, over hyped.
I want:
A plain black phone, featuring:
A clear and easy to read screen.
Space for all my contacts.
A ringtone that sounds like a phone ringing.
A normal phone keypad
The ability to make and receive calls and text.
Any recommendations?
Hey Seamus …I got an idea…why don’t u unload some of that crap u have on your device (ahem..porn)..and maybe it won’t crash as often…
BTW…I’ve used Windows Mobile Devices for the past 3 years… I and thousands of others don’t have any problems…so why is it only u Apple zombies seems to be having these issues…?
BTW…don’t hurt yourself climbing down from that pedestal of yours… Picking on MS is sooooooooo last century…..
Curt’s claim is wrong:
“I refer you, and all reporters out there, back to the keynote – the iPhone will *seamlessly* switch between Edge ($$$) and Wi-Fi (faster and cheaper).
Name one phone that will do that other than the iPhone. I can tell you this is somewhat of a concern for Cingular as they are trying to increase revenue from data traffic.”
Some HP phones have had that feature since 2004. The real point isn’t that this feature is revolutionary, but how well it will actually work. Will it be seamless or “seamless”? Lets see what Apple can do!
Curt’s claim of the following is simply wrong:
““I refer you, and all reporters out there, back to the keynote – the iPhone will *seamlessly* switch between Edge ($$$) and Wi-Fi (faster and cheaper).
Name one phone that will do that other than the iPhone. I can tell you this is somewhat of a concern for Cingular as they are trying to increase revenue from data traffic.””
This feature of switching between Cellular internet and Wi-Fi has been around in some HP PDAs since 2004. The real point isn’t that this feature is revolutionary, but how well it will actually work. Will it be seamless or “seamless”? Lets see what Apple and Jobs can reallly do!
We’re in beta right now, but a number of our data points target market penetration for consumer electronics as it relates to video game consumers.
In fact we have initial market penetration data as it relates to cell phone manufacturer/model. After reading this and a few other articles I went ahead and priced those models (we’ve captured carrier information as well)
and looked at the expendature information we captured.
As far as video game consumers go, given our demographic distrobution, (we’re in beta so this is small sample size still) it looks like the iPhone’s price point is about 250.00+ above the sweet spot.
I’d like to revisit this in about a year when we’re live and our populations much higher. Anyhow Im definately adding some data capture as it relates to the product launch this summer.
What % of video game consumers bought an iPhone, and if they did what carrier/phone were they using before.
That should be a bell weather predicter of adoption for the 14-35 crowd.
FWIW: I agree with Allen’s initial position on purchase and consumption, but I dont think that pattern will hold 12 months out, given Apples history of lowering price points as production ramps up (personal observation as a previous employee, albeit a peon at the time) besides any killer Dev app’s comming out wont be available widely for about 3-4 months, perfected in 8-10…..at the 12 month point 3rd party App’s should hit critical mass…just in time for a drastic price reduction and convieniently enough new cheaper data transmission plans
Mike I’d increase your window by 4 months for a (mostly) sure win
Besides the first year is recouping production/development costs…..