Comments on: Use WeatherBill To Bet On The Weather http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/ Startup and Technology News Fri, 27 Nov 2009 04:26:08 -0800 hourly 1 By: Don’t Mind Rainy Vacations? Get One For Free At Priceline http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/comment-page-2/#comment-2351600 Don’t Mind Rainy Vacations? Get One For Free At Priceline Thu, 05 Jun 2008 06:40:09 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/#comment-2351600 [...] through Weatherbill, a weather-related insurance startup founded by ex-Googler David Friedberg in early 2007. CrunchBase Information WeatherBill Information provided by [...] [...] through Weatherbill, a weather-related insurance startup founded by ex-Googler David Friedberg in early 2007. CrunchBase Information WeatherBill Information provided by [...]

]]> By: Use WeatherBill To Hedge Your Weather Bets… | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/comment-page-1/#comment-1796777 Use WeatherBill To Hedge Your Weather Bets… | Midas Oracle .ORG Wed, 28 Nov 2007 10:04:53 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/#comment-1796777 [...] Via Tech Crunch: Weather Bill [...] [...] Via Tech Crunch: Weather Bill [...]

]]> By: EBOT Accessibility & InTrade Board Of Trade | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/comment-page-1/#comment-1796761 EBOT Accessibility & InTrade Board Of Trade | Midas Oracle .ORG Wed, 28 Nov 2007 09:55:57 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/#comment-1796761 [...] Tech Crunch on Weather Bill (January 2, 2007): […] The only requirement to purchase a policy is that the individual or business is an “accredited investor,” meaning they have a net worth of at least $1 million. The user has to certify this when creating an account, but no follow up is done. […] [...] [...] Tech Crunch on Weather Bill (January 2, 2007): […] The only requirement to purchase a policy is that the individual or business is an “accredited investor,” meaning they have a net worth of at least $1 million. The user has to certify this when creating an account, but no follow up is done. […] [...]

]]> By: Another Idea Gone « M@’s Blog http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/comment-page-1/#comment-1787846 Another Idea Gone « M@’s Blog Fri, 23 Nov 2007 16:24:41 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/#comment-1787846 [...] - looks like someone from google has taken it to the extreme and added the idea of making it a Weather Insurance system where you can do kinda the same thing I thought of, but for real [...] [...] – looks like someone from google has taken it to the extreme and added the idea of making it a Weather Insurance system where you can do kinda the same thing I thought of, but for real [...]

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]]> By: Midas Oracle .ORG » Blog Archive » Comments on Weather Bill dot com - REDUX http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/comment-page-1/#comment-1404375 Midas Oracle .ORG » Blog Archive » Comments on Weather Bill dot com - REDUX Thu, 31 May 2007 20:47:21 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/#comment-1404375 [...] on Weather Bill dot com - REDUX #1. I have posted a short comment at Tech Crunch, under the login name “Midas Oracle” (with an embedded deep link to Thoughts on Weather [...] [...] on Weather Bill dot com – REDUX #1. I have posted a short comment at Tech Crunch, under the login name “Midas Oracle” (with an embedded deep link to Thoughts on Weather [...]

]]> By: Midas Oracle .ORG » Blog Archive » Comments on Weather Bill dot com http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/comment-page-1/#comment-1404349 Midas Oracle .ORG » Blog Archive » Comments on Weather Bill dot com Thu, 31 May 2007 20:21:09 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/#comment-1404349 [...] insurance service to businesses and (wealthy) individuals. There are two crunchy aspects: “users can also use it to simply make a cash bet on the weather swings in a given geographic area“, and the comparison with weather futures. Plus: “[Weather Bill] also sell their risk [...] [...] insurance service to businesses and (wealthy) individuals. There are two crunchy aspects: “users can also use it to simply make a cash bet on the weather swings in a given geographic area“, and the comparison with weather futures. Plus: “[Weather Bill] also sell their risk [...]

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]]> By: Brian http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/comment-page-1/#comment-742622 Brian Fri, 19 Jan 2007 05:11:02 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/#comment-742622 I love the concept and I suspect they'll figure out how to make it a success. but... 1. the contracts are too expensive. every scenario I tried seemed like the policy was priced above what any sane person would pay for insurance (e.g., the cheapest policy was something like 15% of the payout and most had prices much closer to 100% of the payout). with pricing like this, i'm guessing it will be hard to sell policies to business owners and gamblers alike. 2. and if it works, it's going to invite a lot of competition I love the concept and I suspect they’ll figure out how to make it a success.

but…

1. the contracts are too expensive. every scenario I tried seemed like the policy was priced above what any sane person would pay for insurance (e.g., the cheapest policy was something like 15% of the payout and most had prices much closer to 100% of the payout). with pricing like this, i’m guessing it will be hard to sell policies to business owners and gamblers alike.

2. and if it works, it’s going to invite a lot of competition

]]> By: The Park Paradigm » Thinking about the weather (markets.) http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/comment-page-1/#comment-672535 The Park Paradigm » Thinking about the weather (markets.) Sun, 07 Jan 2007 13:12:58 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/#comment-672535 [...] And so when I met David Friedberg last summer and he showed me his idea for launching a new technology-driven business for hedging weather risk, I was obviously keenly interested. After many conversations, due diligence and negotiations I am very happy to be on board as one of Weatherbill’s founding investors. Weatherbill, as reported on TechCrunch, will offer highly customized weather insurance to businesses across the US using the best of modern internet and financial technology to price and distribute its risk-management products. [...] [...] And so when I met David Friedberg last summer and he showed me his idea for launching a new technology-driven business for hedging weather risk, I was obviously keenly interested. After many conversations, due diligence and negotiations I am very happy to be on board as one of Weatherbill’s founding investors. Weatherbill, as reported on TechCrunch, will offer highly customized weather insurance to businesses across the US using the best of modern internet and financial technology to price and distribute its risk-management products. [...]

]]> By: Midas Oracle http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/comment-page-1/#comment-666689 Midas Oracle Sat, 06 Jan 2007 08:45:25 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/#comment-666689 "I really don’t see that many accredited investors having so much exposure to daily weather risk that they’ll feel the need to hedge at prices they’ll assume imply negative expected value (given that both Weather Bill and the hedgies they offload risk on need their pounds of flesh)." Stanford professor Eric Zitzewitz “I really don’t see that many accredited investors having so much exposure to daily weather risk that they’ll feel the need to hedge at prices they’ll assume imply negative expected value (given that both Weather Bill and the hedgies they offload risk on need their pounds of flesh).”
Stanford professor Eric Zitzewitz

]]> By: PJN http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/comment-page-1/#comment-663617 PJN Fri, 05 Jan 2007 18:15:09 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/#comment-663617 I used to own 30 golf course and clubs. This would have been highly attractive, as weather was a principal driver of our economics. We bought catastrophe insurance back then, and collected once during a hurricane, but this would allow me to smooth out my ordinary weather fluctuations - and eliminate all those "bad years due to poor weather." Since lots of other businesses are subject to weather impacts, this makes a lot of sense - if the company has devised an effective distribution method. Small business owners are hard to get to, and many of them are tech or change averse. I used to own 30 golf course and clubs. This would have been highly attractive, as weather was a principal driver of our economics. We bought catastrophe insurance back then, and collected once during a hurricane, but this would allow me to smooth out my ordinary weather fluctuations – and eliminate all those “bad years due to poor weather.”

Since lots of other businesses are subject to weather impacts, this makes a lot of sense – if the company has devised an effective distribution method. Small business owners are hard to get to, and many of them are tech or change averse.

]]> By: Steve E http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/comment-page-1/#comment-662744 Steve E Fri, 05 Jan 2007 13:44:18 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/#comment-662744 Definitely GH. Imagine owning a ski resort, you buy a derivative that will pay you a set amount for every inch of snow that you don't get (up to the amount you defined as needed in order to have a good season). So that covers you for the winter season. Then in the summer you have a golf course and extreme sports centre, so you buy a rainfall derivative that pays you if you receive over a certain amount of rain, and a temperature derivative etc etc... The market started with heating/cooling degree days, as a way for power companies to hedge against demand according to the weather (eg. when it's really hot everyone uses aircon and power demand goes up etc etc). Fascinating stuff the risk markets, and just perfect to be positioned on the web... Definitely GH. Imagine owning a ski resort, you buy a derivative that will pay you a set amount for every inch of snow that you don’t get (up to the amount you defined as needed in order to have a good season). So that covers you for the winter season. Then in the summer you have a golf course and extreme sports centre, so you buy a rainfall derivative that pays you if you receive over a certain amount of rain, and a temperature derivative etc etc…

The market started with heating/cooling degree days, as a way for power companies to hedge against demand according to the weather (eg. when it’s really hot everyone uses aircon and power demand goes up etc etc).

Fascinating stuff the risk markets, and just perfect to be positioned on the web…

]]> By: gh http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/comment-page-1/#comment-661778 gh Fri, 05 Jan 2007 08:32:09 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/#comment-661778 another business that I imagine would be very interested in this service: ski resorts another business that I imagine would be very interested in this service: ski resorts

]]> By: Sam Dinkin http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/comment-page-1/#comment-661727 Sam Dinkin Fri, 05 Jan 2007 07:53:10 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/#comment-661727 It's tough to do a pay to play weather game without creating a security and thereby impinging on SEC's domain, creating a proposition bet which makes it difficult to shield officers in the US from criminal action, or creating insurance which brings a company to the attention of insurance regulators. I built one at http://www.space-shot.com if you want to play one. It's a skill tournament. It’s tough to do a pay to play weather game without creating a security and thereby impinging on SEC’s domain, creating a proposition bet which makes it difficult to shield officers in the US from criminal action, or creating insurance which brings a company to the attention of insurance regulators. I built one at http://www.space-shot.com if you want to play one. It’s a skill tournament.

]]> By: Ormenipar http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/comment-page-1/#comment-656118 Ormenipar Thu, 04 Jan 2007 04:42:10 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/#comment-656118 Yes this is cool, combine it with Trendio.com and some other prediction markets and you will soon be able to bet and take insurances on whatever you want Yes this is cool, combine it with Trendio.com and some other prediction markets and you will soon be able to bet and take insurances on whatever you want

]]> By: links for 2007-01-04 at Litwack.org http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/comment-page-1/#comment-654788 links for 2007-01-04 at Litwack.org Thu, 04 Jan 2007 00:19:52 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/#comment-654788 [...] TechCrunch: Use WeatherBill To Bet On The Weather This is the most interesting web startup I’ve seen in forever. I remember reading a NYer article about weather insurance a while back. Berkshire Hathaway’s first internet purchase? (tags: weatherbill startups) [...] [...] TechCrunch: Use WeatherBill To Bet On The Weather This is the most interesting web startup I’ve seen in forever. I remember reading a NYer article about weather insurance a while back. Berkshire Hathaway’s first internet purchase? (tags: weatherbill startups) [...]

]]> By: TechCrunch Japanese アーカイブ » 天候保険WeatherBillで天気に賭ける http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/comment-page-1/#comment-654084 TechCrunch Japanese アーカイブ » 天候保険WeatherBillで天気に賭ける Wed, 03 Jan 2007 21:50:28 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/#comment-654084 [...] [原文へ] WeatherBill [...] [...] [原文へ] WeatherBill [...]

]]> By: Phil http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/comment-page-1/#comment-654075 Phil Wed, 03 Jan 2007 21:47:48 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/#comment-654075 Good odds... fun meteorology fact: if you predict the weather tomorrow will be the same as today, you will be right 66% of the time. Good odds… fun meteorology fact: if you predict the weather tomorrow will be the same as today, you will be right 66% of the time.

]]> By: Jim http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/comment-page-1/#comment-653797 Jim Wed, 03 Jan 2007 20:30:29 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/#comment-653797 As an individual I could see using this when on vacation - eg if it rains or temperature is below a certain level at least you get a few dollars back to compensate you for not having the best weather. As an individual I could see using this when on vacation – eg if it rains or temperature is below a certain level at least you get a few dollars back to compensate you for not having the best weather.

]]> By: Jon http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/comment-page-1/#comment-653777 Jon Wed, 03 Jan 2007 20:25:14 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/#comment-653777 Unlike just about every other type of gambling, at least there will never be any "insiders" involved and making tonnes of money due to their foreknowledge of things to come. Jon Unlike just about every other type of gambling, at least there will never be any “insiders” involved and making tonnes of money due to their foreknowledge of things to come.

Jon

]]> By: mike http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/comment-page-1/#comment-653578 mike Wed, 03 Jan 2007 19:25:00 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/#comment-653578 I am glad to see more companies getting into weather risk services. Tijan - I don't think this is much of a prediction market for the public's eyes. For example, I don't think that WeatherBill's customers can see the "bids" and "offers" for a particular event the way you can as a customer of HedgeStreet. But I'm sure WeatherBill is tracking the public's interest in particular weather events and will tweak the algo accordingly. I am glad to see more companies getting into weather risk services.

Tijan – I don’t think this is much of a prediction market for the public’s eyes. For example, I don’t think that WeatherBill’s customers can see the “bids” and “offers” for a particular event the way you can as a customer of HedgeStreet.
But I’m sure WeatherBill is tracking the public’s interest in particular weather events and will tweak the algo accordingly.

]]> By: tijan http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/comment-page-1/#comment-653350 tijan Wed, 03 Jan 2007 18:18:44 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/#comment-653350 This is a prediction market like HSX, tradesports and hedgestreet. The idea is that by leveraging the wisdom of crowds you might get to fairly accurate weather predictions. It'd be neat to see if the predictions in the market did a better job than the weather reporters. This is a prediction market like HSX, tradesports and hedgestreet. The idea is that by leveraging the wisdom of crowds you might get to fairly accurate weather predictions. It’d be neat to see if the predictions in the market did a better job than the weather reporters.

]]> By: mathew http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/comment-page-1/#comment-653345 mathew Wed, 03 Jan 2007 18:15:55 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/01/02/use-weatherbill-to-bet-on-the-weather/#comment-653345 "Everyone complains about the weather, but nobody ever does anything about it." “Everyone complains about the weather, but nobody ever does anything about it.”

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