Comments on: Inkling: The Invisible Hand Says Cubs May Win It http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/ Startup and Technology News Fri, 09 Jan 2009 06:21:32 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.5 By: Midas Oracle .ORG » Blog Archive » Debunking HSX Alex Costakis’ conspiracy theory http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-1042202 Midas Oracle .ORG » Blog Archive » Debunking HSX Alex Costakis’ conspiracy theory Sat, 24 Feb 2007 23:55:44 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-1042202 [...] know if he were a bit more litterate in the reporting business. To give one only one instance, when Tech Crunch (the world’s premier blog on IT start-ups) covered Inkling Markets in September 20..., the writer only mentions the Hollywood Stock Exchange as Inkling’s competitor —nowhere [...] [...] know if he were a bit more litterate in the reporting business. To give one only one instance, when Tech Crunch (the world’s premier blog on IT start-ups) covered Inkling Markets in September 20…, the writer only mentions the Hollywood Stock Exchange as Inkling’s competitor —nowhere [...]

]]> By: Eric http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-283577 Eric Sat, 21 Oct 2006 02:06:46 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-283577 I like tall Street, you really dont get the whole feel of the whole site until you start using it, its really cool. I like tall Street, you really dont get the whole feel of the whole site until you start using it, its really cool.

]]> By: pireland http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-200789 pireland Sun, 17 Sep 2006 03:54:48 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-200789 Won't the predictions affect the outcomes? Like if you are using it for a business... the question of "Will the product ship late?" will probably prompt a number of counter measures that may change the end-result. I guess people could also be betting on the effectiveness of the counter-measures... but if they do that, then many people would bet that it will succeed because they will anticipate that most people will bet that it doesn't and the company will take action. This will then send mix signals to the people trying to make a decision off that data. Won’t the predictions affect the outcomes?

Like if you are using it for a business… the question of “Will the product ship late?” will probably prompt a number of counter measures that may change the end-result. I guess people could also be betting on the effectiveness of the counter-measures… but if they do that, then many people would bet that it will succeed because they will anticipate that most people will bet that it doesn’t and the company will take action. This will then send mix signals to the people trying to make a decision off that data.

]]> By: SMART http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-200340 SMART Sat, 16 Sep 2006 22:26:47 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-200340 Inkling has some great markets. You can watch highlighted Inkling markets and similar markets from Tradesports, Newsfutures and others like WSX at SMARTCROWD. A neat way to get a digest of key markets and events, and the news that shapes them. www.smartcrowd.typepad.com Inkling has some great markets. You can watch highlighted Inkling markets and similar markets from Tradesports, Newsfutures and others like WSX at SMARTCROWD. A neat way to get a digest of key markets and events, and the news that shapes them.
http://www.smartcrowd.typepad.com

]]> By: Stock Tip: Bet on Collective Intelligence at twopointouch: web 2.0, blogs and social media http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-198952 Stock Tip: Bet on Collective Intelligence at twopointouch: web 2.0, blogs and social media Sat, 16 Sep 2006 09:33:09 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-198952 [...] So, interesting to hear about the launch of Inkling on Techcrunch. Basically, it’s a site for betting on future events in a stock-market simulation using pretend money, inkies. More innovatively, the service offers Enterprise and Small Business versions of the service. The idea is that businesses create stock exchanges within their companies to facilitate decision-making. Google, Eli-Lilly and Microsoft already use prediction markets internally for this purpose. [...] [...] So, interesting to hear about the launch of Inkling on Techcrunch. Basically, it’s a site for betting on future events in a stock-market simulation using pretend money, inkies. More innovatively, the service offers Enterprise and Small Business versions of the service. The idea is that businesses create stock exchanges within their companies to facilitate decision-making. Google, Eli-Lilly and Microsoft already use prediction markets internally for this purpose. [...]

]]> By: Brad http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-198619 Brad Sat, 16 Sep 2006 06:41:12 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-198619 It's cool to see some of these sites getting publicity. I've been developing my own prediction market as a hobby and it's been interesting to see how people respond to certain topics and also watch how trading patterns develop in certain stocks. It’s cool to see some of these sites getting publicity. I’ve been developing my own prediction market as a hobby and it’s been interesting to see how people respond to certain topics and also watch how trading patterns develop in certain stocks.

]]> By: perfectcompetition.net http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-198573 perfectcompetition.net Sat, 16 Sep 2006 06:23:12 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-198573 There are fantasy stockmarkets and then there are stockmarket simulations such as perfectcompetition.net. There are fantasy stockmarkets and then there are stockmarket simulations such as perfectcompetition.net.

]]> By: TallStreet.com http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-198315 TallStreet.com Sat, 16 Sep 2006 03:52:24 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-198315 We are building a social recommendation engine (like a search engine) at Tall Street (http://www.tallstreet.com) based on this sort of concept and it has been working quite well for us. We are building a social recommendation engine (like a search engine) at Tall Street (http://www.tallstreet.com) based on this sort of concept and it has been working quite well for us.

]]> By: Peter http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-197695 Peter Fri, 15 Sep 2006 22:15:06 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-197695 When does one of these tools make it into the next horrible consultant-produced 'development methodology' to come down the pike? (e.g. Scrum) http://www.controlchaos.com/ When does one of these tools make it into the next horrible consultant-produced ‘development methodology’ to come down the pike? (e.g. Scrum)

http://www.controlchaos.com/

]]> By: TechCrunch Japanese アーカイブ » Inkling、「見えざる手」によりシカゴ・カブス(Cubs)の勝利を予測 http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-197263 TechCrunch Japanese アーカイブ » Inkling、「見えざる手」によりシカゴ・カブス(Cubs)の勝利を予測 Fri, 15 Sep 2006 18:34:23 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-197263 [...] [原文へ] Inkling [...] [...] [原文へ] Inkling [...]

]]> By: Ryan Gahl http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-197148 Ryan Gahl Fri, 15 Sep 2006 17:37:09 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-197148 @Raghu: One could flip this around and say that because Apple sees a lot of people who think it would be a good idea for them to make a phone, Apple makes a phone. Then it's not a prediction, but free market analysis for Apple. @Raghu: One could flip this around and say that because Apple sees a lot of people who think it would be a good idea for them to make a phone, Apple makes a phone. Then it’s not a prediction, but free market analysis for Apple.

]]> By: Ray http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-197141 Ray Fri, 15 Sep 2006 17:33:15 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-197141 Another company that's been running prediction markets for a while is NewsFutures (http://www.newsfutures.com). Disclaimer: my company ran an internal trial with their software and was pleased. Yahoo Research offers similar functionality through their Buzz Game. Check it out at http://buzz.research.yahoo.com/bk/index.html. Another company that’s been running prediction markets for a while is NewsFutures (http://www.newsfutures.com). Disclaimer: my company ran an internal trial with their software and was pleased.

Yahoo Research offers similar functionality through their Buzz Game. Check it out at http://buzz.research.yahoo.com/bk/index.html.

]]> By: Sourabh Niyogi http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-197117 Sourabh Niyogi Fri, 15 Sep 2006 17:25:20 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-197117 For those of you want to read more about this, check out the PPTs from this 2005 workshop on Markets as Predictive Devices: http://dimacs.rutgers.edu/Workshops/Markets/slides/slides.html For those of you want to read more about this, check out the PPTs from this 2005 workshop on Markets as Predictive Devices:

http://dimacs.rutgers.edu/Work.....lides.html

]]> By: Raghu http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-197102 Raghu Fri, 15 Sep 2006 17:16:01 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-197102 TWOCrowds also got the Google Calendar prediction right. It also looks like Apple is going to release a phone! http://www.twocrowds.com/popular.php TWOCrowds also got the Google Calendar prediction right. It also looks like Apple is going to release a phone!

http://www.twocrowds.com/popular.php

]]> By: alan http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-197014 alan Fri, 15 Sep 2006 16:32:55 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-197014 Spread Betting sites are fairly good predictors of events, as real people are putting real money on their hunches. Its worth getting an account with one just to see the quoted odds. Another one that has proven quite good is the BBC's Celebdaq. For a "wisdom of crowds" play to work there has to be a fairly large and heterogenous contributor base though, be interesting to see how this might play out here in more specific applications. Spread Betting sites are fairly good predictors of events, as real people are putting real money on their hunches. Its worth getting an account with one just to see the quoted odds.

Another one that has proven quite good is the BBC’s Celebdaq.

For a “wisdom of crowds” play to work there has to be a fairly large and heterogenous contributor base though, be interesting to see how this might play out here in more specific applications.

]]> By: John Biggs http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-196928 John Biggs Fri, 15 Sep 2006 15:37:50 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-196928 It's all play money right now. It’s all play money right now.

]]> By: Pat http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-196921 Pat Fri, 15 Sep 2006 15:35:23 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-196921 What's to stop someone from investing all of their money in one market and then creating a new account if they lose? What’s to stop someone from investing all of their money in one market and then creating a new account if they lose?

]]> By: NeoTechie http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-196913 NeoTechie Fri, 15 Sep 2006 15:33:08 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-196913 Supply on demand has been very successful. Companies such as Amazon, BN, and eBay are capitalizing on this concept. Unique markets on demand will be quite interesting in the realm of Web 2.0. If companies want to be successful, then they will have to capitalize on the collective intelligence data that users provide. According to Sergio Zyman: "The sole purpose of marketing is to get more people to buy more of your products, more often, for more money." ---The End of Marketing As we Know It-- He also states that when we respect data then we will be successful. Web 2.0 is built on user data. Supply on demand has been very successful. Companies such as Amazon, BN, and eBay are capitalizing on this concept. Unique markets on demand will be quite interesting in the realm of Web 2.0. If companies want to be successful, then they will have to capitalize on the collective intelligence data that users provide.

According to Sergio Zyman:

“The sole purpose of marketing is to get more people to buy more of your
products, more often, for more money.”

—The End of Marketing As we Know It–

He also states that when we respect data then we will be successful.

Web 2.0 is built on user data.

]]> By: Jonathan Mendez http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-196884 Jonathan Mendez Fri, 15 Sep 2006 15:26:30 +0000 http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/09/15/inkling-the-invisible-hand-says-cubs-may-win-it/#comment-196884 Sounds like the read "Wisdom of Crowds" and built an app. Pretty cool. Sounds like the read “Wisdom of Crowds” and built an app. Pretty cool.

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